Upload
arnav
View
25
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
EGU General Assembly. EGU2010-10413. Emergency preparedness: community-based short-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei J. Selva , W. Marzocchi , P. Papale , L. Civetta , E. del Pezzo. INGV-DPC Project UNREST. Vienna, 05/05/2010. INTRO. Emergency Preparedness - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
EGU General Assembly EGU2010-10413
INGV-DPC Project UNREST Vienna, 05/05/2010
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSINTRO
Emergency Preparedness
definition in advance of tools to assist decision makers
Emergency Preparedness
definition in advance of tools to assist decision makers
Short-term eruption forecasting keys:
1. to recognize anomalous signals and relate them to physical processes
ELICITATIONS
2. to assign probability values STATISTICAL MODEL
3. to quickly provide answers to unexpected phenomena TRAINED COMMUNITY ONLINE TOOLS
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSINTRO
+
=
STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL
VOLC. COMMUNITYVOLC. COMMUNITY
FORECASTING TOOLFORECASTING TOOL
INDERECT ELICITATIONS
the community of experts set the parameters of the statistical model
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSBET_EF
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSBET_EF
NODE 1
UNREST
unrestno unrest
NODE 2
MAGMATICUNREST
magmano magma
NODE 3
ERUPTION
eruptionno eruption
NODE 4
VENTLOCATION
loc #1loc #2
…loc #700
NODE 5
ERUPTIONSIZE
lava domesmall expl.
medium expl.large expl.
NODE 1-2-3- identification of anomalies indicating each “event” (node)- definition of the “state of anomaly” through thresholds
evaluation of the probability at node from the “state of anomaly” of all informative parameters
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSBET_EF
measure
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND ANOMALYANOMALYGray AreaGray Area
THRESHOLD 1 THRESHOLD 2
PARAMETERS
MODEL
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSELICITATIONS
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSELICITATIONS
DELPHI METHODDELPHI METHODstructured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts, facilitating the formation of a group judgement:
• structured information flows• feedback of participants• anonymity of participants
• pre-eruptive node and tools• group of experts trained to ET and elicitation procedures
GOAL: AGREED GROUP OPINIONGOAL: AGREED GROUP OPINION
• 30 researchers within 2 projects from 2005 • 5 elicitations sessions• scores of experts reflecting their consideration within the group• consensus is formed during general discussions
EXPERT GROUPEXPERT GROUP
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSELICITATIONS
Pre-elicitation meetings (seminars, meetings, internet forum): statistical model, tools for the elicitation, discussions on the monitoring network, studies/models (cross-feedback), interpretations (consensus-seeking)
Elicitation sessions: physical meetings --> internet session score the other experts, selection of parameters and thresholds
Post-elicitation meetings (moderated discussions sessions): consequence of choices and performance of the model, general discussions on single parameters, measures and definitions, etc.
COMMUNITY-FORMING PROCESSCOMMUNITY-FORMING PROCESS
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSELICITATIONS
DURING ELICITATION- Predefined lists of experts and parameters - Online forms to
-selected parameters-assign thresholds-vote the other experts
- Online forum
ONLINE ELICITATION – http://bet.bo.ingv.it/elicitazione/elicitations.htmlONLINE ELICITATION – http://bet.bo.ingv.it/elicitazione/elicitations.html
ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS- Automatic analysis- Stability check through differentiated statistical analyses- Automatic publication of results
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSRESULTS
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS
LEGENDA:
Boolean parameters are represented by “YES”
“Gray areas” correspond to variable probability of being in the adjacent states, depending on the measured values
RESULTS
ELICITATION VBACKGROUN
DGray area
UNRESTGray area
MAGM. UNREST
Gray area
ERUPTION
VT (M > 0.8) [ev/day] 5 15 LP/VLP/ULP [ev/month] 2 10
Rate uplift [cm/month] 0.7 1.3
Uplift [cm] 2 6 6 15 T Pisciarelli 100 110 VLP/ULP 1 5 Deep VT (M > 0.8) [ev/day] 2 20 Deep LP (> 2 Km) [ev/day] 3 20 Disp. Hypocenters [Km] 1 3 Tremor YES YESDeep Tremor (>3.5 Km)
YES
Acc. seismic events YESAcc. RSAM YESNew fractures YES YES YESMacr. (dm) variation in def.
YES YES
Migr. max uplift YESExt degassing YES Magm. comp. gases YES HF - HCl - SO2 YES YES YESPhreatic activity YES
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS
BOOLEAN QUANTITATIVE
To UNREST 3 (0.40) 5 (0.60)
To MAGMATIC UN. 6 (0.60) 4 (0.40)
To ERUPTION 8 (0.90) 1 (0.10)
RESULTS
SEISMICITY DEFORMATION GASES
To UNREST 2 (0.25) 3 (0.37) 3 (0.37)
To MAGMATIC UN. 5 (0.50) 3 (0.30) 2 (0.20)
To ERUPTION 4 (0.45) 3 (0.33) 2 (0.22)
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS
SEISMICITY
To UNREST counting VT, LP/VLP/ULP basic observations
To MAGMATIC UN. deep VT, deep LP tremor
depth, wave forms
To ERUPTION acceleration dispersion hypocenters
macroscopic variations
RESULTS
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTSRESULTS
DEFORMATION
To UNREST uplift, uplift rate
Less sensitive:
Too many interpretations heard?
To MAGMATIC UN. uplift
To ERUPTION surf. fracturesmacroscopi variationsmigr. of maximum uplift
macroscopic variations
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS
GASES
To UNREST T fumaroleExt. degassing struct.
No chemistry: delayed response of gases
To MAGMATIC UN. Acidic gasMagm. component directly into eruption
Smaller changes controlled by hydroth. system
To ERUPTION Acidic gasPhreatic explosions
macroscopic variations
RESULTS
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS
Seismicity: Highest sensitivity
Deformation: Macroscopic changes
Gases: Macroscopic changes
Seismicity: Highest sensitivity
Deformation: Macroscopic changes
Gases: Macroscopic changes
In Favour of Seismicity:
Longest sesmic record and experience, exceptional sequence largely documented in 1982-84, more developed network, rapidity of information, effective higher sensitivity, …
Against Deformation and Gases:
Interpretations too model-dependent, many contrasting interpretations, large control of hydrothermal system, delayed gas-related signals, …
RESULTS
Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010
Emergency preparedness at Campi FlegreiEmergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS
SUMMARY
• Statistical model (BET_EF) and volcanological interpretation are kept separated:
• separate validations are possible
• experts asked for volcanological interpretation only
• an automatic and easily reviewable tool for eruption forecasting is set
• The 5 yrs long elicitation process provided
• a global picture of the confidence on the various volc. interpretations
• clues to guide future implementations in the monitoring network and research investments
• trained a community of experts to quickly answer to crises
RESULTS