Emergency Management in the 21 st Century: Living in the New Normal The US, New Zealand and the World February 16, 2005

Emergency Management in the 21st Century: Living in the New Normal

The US, New Zealand and the World

February 16, 2005

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Changes Over the Last Ten YearsChanges Over the Last Ten Years

• Civil defense to domestic response

• Losses continue to grow

• We tend to be best prepared for past disasters

• 25% of the deaths and 50% of injuries occur in things we don’t call disasters, like fog and lightning

• More people die from heat than from earthquakes


Professional Changes Over Ten YearsProfessional Changes Over Ten Years

• National security to homeland security

• Professional specialization in FEMA / EM

• Building the profession

• Higher education in emergency management – 1 to 120

• Emphasis on hazard mitigation and sustainable development

• Preparedness is the foundation of EM


Continued ProgressContinued Progress

• Certifications – CEM , IAEM

• Evolution of standards

• CAR

• NFPA 1600

• EMAP

• Books increasing; journals increasing; need more research

• Information flow speeded by internet and advanced technologies

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More ProgressMore Progress

• Virtual operations centers, created by EDS

• Emphasis on response has given way to emphasis on preparedness and mitigation

• Homeland Security has added prevention

• Global outreach to underserved communities, disabled, seniors, minorities, tribes, colleges and universities, schools


Current StatusCurrent Status

• The disaster business keeps booming!

• 1990 thru 1999 – FEMA spent $27 billion

• 50 times more than 1950 thru 1959

• $10 per person for disaster relief

• Insurance losses are running $40 billion per year, five times the 1950’s level

• 76% of the trillion dollars of loss over 15 years is weather-related – climate change?


2004’s Worst Natural Disasters2004’s Worst Natural Disasters

• Earthquake / tsunami in Southeast Asia / Eastern Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $600 $600 billionbillion

• Florida hurricanes:Charley, Francis, Gastonand “The Gang”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$21 billion$21 billion

• Floods and landslides inthe Philippines

• Drought in South Africa


2004’s Worst Natural Disasters (continued)2004’s Worst Natural Disasters (continued)

• Flood North Island ofNew Zealand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$200 million;$200 million;

$70 million indemnification $70 million indemnification

• Tropical cyclone in Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$350 million$350 million

• Floods in Bangladesh, Nepal, and India triggeredby monsoon rains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$5 billion$5 billion

• Earthquake in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$30 million$30 million


2004’s Worst Natural Disasters (continued)2004’s Worst Natural Disasters (continued)

• Floods in Botswana andsurrounding countries

• Earthquake in Morocco. . . . . . . . . . . . . .$400 $400 millionmillion

• Finally, a separate word about the tsunami, which has taken almost 300,000 lives, including those who are still missing:

– Need for warning system – US spending $37.5 million to set up a deep-sea warning system around its coastline

– International Tsunami Center reports not “if”, but “when”


Weather ChallengesWeather Challenges

• Vulnerable coastline

• Flood-prone rivers and streams

• Busiest tornado corridor in the world – expanding and intensifying

• Climate change and biodiversity risks

• Other drivers in the disaster boom:

– Political generosity

– Lax FEMA regulations

– Unprecedented development along coasts and in floodplains


Mitigation MeasuresMitigation Measures

• Restoring forests

• Flood and erosion control

• Protecting watersheds

• Promoting other risk mitigation activities

• Eradication of poverty

• Environmental conservation

• Sustainability development

• Wider availability of disaster insurance


Structural Challenges in the USStructural Challenges in the US

• Budget cuts

• Demotion of FEMA

• Preparedness grant distribution and emergency management in two different DHS organizations

• All hazards vs. one hazard

• Cutting and capping Emergency Management Performance Grants (EMPG)


The Next Ten Years: Crystal Ball TimeThe Next Ten Years: Crystal Ball Time

• More colleges and universities offering certificates and degrees, eventually all will have some courses in emergency management

• More online programs; perfect fit for our profession

• Great need for faculty


The Next Ten Years (continued)The Next Ten Years (continued)

• Technology will play an increasing role – simulations for exercises, video conferences

• Enterprise Virtual Operations Center (EVOC) developed by EDS in the US for monitoring, response, exercises

• More press attention to disasters and emergency personnel; will become issue in campaigns

• More job descriptions will include degrees and certifications

Virtual Operations

Center


More Crystal BallMore Crystal Ball

• Standards compliance will be part of funding process

• NRP / NIMS / NFPA 1600 / EMAP

• New presidential executive order on national preparedness standards – comment period

• New intelligence reform law


The Future ForeseenThe Future Foreseen

• Extension of assessments

• Tribal communities

• Local governments

• Private sector – Sarbanes Oxley and NFPA 1600

• Law suits – not hiring CEM , degree holders, and not meeting standards

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Make a Wish Make a Wish

• More funding

• Higher salaries

• More collaboration

• More information sharing

• More interoperability

• All hazards approach

• Becoming the first choice profession for young people


Emphasis Always On the Positive SideEmphasis Always On the Positive Side

• More books

• More manuals

• More case studies

• More best practices shared

• More lessons learned shared

• More chances like today to share challenges and support each other


Final RecommendationsFinal Recommendations

• Take a global perspective

• Take a holistic look

• Adhere to the all hazards approach

• Accept responsibility for disasters because we can make decisions affecting them, not just Acts of God

• Need a country-by-country risk assessment

• Need a national database on disasters, so that we know what we are losing…

• …and what we are spending


Final Recommendations (continued)Final Recommendations (continued)

• Comprehensive education and training from kindergarten through PhD

• Share lessons learned and best practices more broadly

• Many developing countries may know better how to relate to nature

Kay C. Goss, CEMSenior Advisor for Homeland Security, Emergency Management, and Business Continuity

Electronic Data Systems Corporation (EDS)

[email protected]

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Emergency Management in the 21 st Century: Living in the New Normal The US, New Zealand and the World February 16, 2005