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Emerald Ash Borer: http://static1.squarespace.com/static/50f634e6e4b0bde5ed7bfee7/t/55032866e4b0147c886dda7b/1426270311279/EABadultsideview.jpg?format=1500w

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a “greenhouse gas” meaning it absorbs heat energy emitted by the Earth’s surface. There are other greenhouse gases (methane, CFCs, ozone, nitrous oxide), but CO2 is biggest contributor to greenhouse effect due to long atmospheric lifetime. Without greenhouse gases, life would not exist! (Earth would be an “icebox,” i.e. covered in snow/ice, oceans would freeze over – average temperature would be 0 F instead of 59 F today). However, too much change in short amount of time is not good either! 407 ppm in June 2016 First surpassed 400 ppm in May 2013

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Ice cores store records of Earth’s past atmospheric conditions. They drilled an ice core 2 miles long!! (Thickest part of Antarctica is 2.7 miles deep) Works like tree rings – new snow layer gets added each year. CO2 is extracted directly. Temperature is inferred from ratio of two oxygen isotopes.

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Last glacial maximum was about 25,000 years ago when Mass was covered with 2 km (over 1 mile) of ice. If anyone asks, temperature is derived from examining ratio of two different oxygen isotopes – ratio is proportional to temperature, so can be used as proxy.

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Upstate New York and Massachusetts – what 2-5 degrees (F) of warming means – climate more like South Carolina! Warming fastest at higher latitudes and higher elevations. Here’s where you can get other states in the Northeast: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/global-warming-northeast-migrating-states.html

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Precipitation is temperature driven! (Heat drives moisture upward, forming clouds). Greatest increase in fall (observed); models consistently predict wetter winters and slightly drier summers. Figure sources: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-1. Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment; Part 1. Climate of the Northeast U.S., 2013. Lots of disagreement in seasonal projections and obs Obs wetter summers (more than winter) models NARCCAP and CMIP3 predict slightly drier summers and much wetter winters NCA table (obs) + NARCCAP + CMIP5 ts by season

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Increasing peakiness in the water cycle Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to heavier rains. Drier soils increased runoff due to surface more impervious.

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Increasing peakiness in the water cycle Warmer air more evaporation drier soils. Some predictions of longer dry spells (i.e. consecutive dry days).

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Extremes creates disturbance (hurricane irene – cut drought earlier) Floods erosion (disturbance) ( invasives?) -- kills native riparian native plant species Arizona Dave Breshears 2005 paper showing pinion pine, juniper die off, drought Poor water quality is disturbance Junipers are the only surviving trees in (b). http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/04/hurricane_sandy_proved_too_muc.html http://image.nj.com/home/njo-media/width620/img/ledgerupdates_impact/photo/2014/03/14602510-mmmain.jpg

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Hurricane Sandy: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/10/fema-prepping-for-election-disruptions-083020 Drought in Mill River (Northampton, MA) in 2012: http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/07/northampton_issues_a_water_ban.html http://media.masslive.com/breakingnews/photo/2012/07/11260987-large.jpg Go into snow/wind take-home points when relevant Show hurricane and other climate photos

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Plant survey initiated by Henry David Thoreau 150 years ago. Most species showing large declines. What caused this? kingdom, phylum/division, class, order, family, genus, species Willis et al. 2008 Calopogon orchid, Anemone, Campanula

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Meta-analysis of 89 studies. Aquatic difference is mainly because native aquatic animals do very poorly with rising temps

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Van der Veken

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Northward in the northern hemisphere

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EAB is currently limited by very cold temps < -30 degrees C (-22 F), so any warming could allow the species to migrate northward

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Also, mountain bark beetle (western species), all across Rocky’s on pine Japanene barberry thickets thin leaves, hold tick

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Expanded risk - kudzu

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Plants do better with more CO2 But, plants compete within ecosystems, so there will be winners and losers Faster growing plants tend to be the winners

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Huge variation by species, total of a few hundred species that we have any info for. Most are either native species to the U.S. or are staple crop species (corn, wheat, soy)

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Native animal effect is likely due to rising acidity

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The majority of experimental comparisons between invasive and natives relative to increased CO2 favored the invasive. Bromus madritensis ssp. rubens relative to native species in the Nevada FACE experiment (Smith) Native and invasive vine responses to increased ambient CO2 in China (Song)

How did they figure this out? There are a number of experiments around the U.S. that pump CO2 into native ecosystems to see how they respond - which species do better, how might ecosystems change? So, one of these experiments is in a North Carolina forest, and they set out to study change in forest structure but realized that they were getting a lot more poison ivy in the area with elevated CO2. Have to pity the poor graduate student tasked with collecting poison ivy to test growth rates and toxicity – probably not why she went back to grad school.

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Temperature, but also impacts (precip, snow, extremes) Example: will evaporation increases due to temperature rise outweigh precipitation increases, resulting in drier soils?

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