EMBEDDING THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL

INTO THE REALITY

IRES – TORINO – 19/04/2010Floriana Gargiulo

2

From concepts to reality…

VILLAGE

HOUSEHOLDS

ACTIVITIES,LAND USE,SERVICES

RESIDENCES

0-4

10_1

4

20-2

4

30-3

4

40-4

4

50-5

4

60-6

4

70-7

4

80-8

4

90-9

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

population- ABREST

populationl- BELLERIVE

1 2 3 4 5 >6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

HH size - ABREST

HH size- BELLERIVE

AGE DISTRIBUTION

HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION

•EUROSTAT datasets

•CENSUS Data at municipality level

•Inventaire communale+ Base permanente des èquipments

•Corine land cover

•Enquête RP99 migration

•Labour Survey

…

•EUROSTAT datasets

•CENSUS Data at municipality level

•Inventaire communale+ Base permanente des èquipments

•Corine land cover

•Enquête RP99 migration

•Labour Survey

…

3

Two examples:

Initialization of demography at municipality level

The network of municipality at regional level

4

DEMOGRAPHIC INITIALIZATION of POPULATION

0-4

10_1

4

20-2

4

30-3

4

40-4

4

50-5

4

60-6

4

70-7

4

80-8

4

90-9

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

population- ABREST

populationl- BELLERIVE

1 2 3 4 5 >6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

HH size - ABREST

HH size- BELLERIVE

AGE DISTRIBUTION

HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION

HH1

HH2

HH5

HH4

HH3

HH6HH7

5

CONSTRAINS:

•HH Type•Age of Referent

•Difference of age between partners•Difference of age between mother and

children

CONSTRAINS:

•HH Type•Age of Referent

•Difference of age between partners•Difference of age between mother and

children

NO INDIVIDUAL DATA

NO DETAILS ON A SAMPLE

NO INFORMATION IN DIFFERENT YEARS

NO POSSIBILITY TO USE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL METHODS LIKE IFP

ITERATIVE ALGORITHM: STOCHASTIC EXTRACTION

+ TEST

6

0-4

10_1

4

20-2

4

30-3

4

40-4

4

50-5

4

60-6

4

70-7

4

80-8

4

90-9

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

population- ABREST

populationl- BELLERIVE

1 2 3 4 5 >6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

HH size - ABREST

HH size- BELLERIVE

AGE DISTRIBUTION

HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION

CONSTRAINS:

•HH Type•Age of Referent

•Difference of age between partners•Difference of age between mother and children

CONSTRAINS:

•HH Type•Age of Referent

•Difference of age between partners•Difference of age between mother and children

3HH size

TEST

7

Age of Referent

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

15-24 25-29 30-49 50-59 60-74 >74

REAL DATA

ARTIFICIAL

ABREST BELLERIVE SUR ALLER

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

0,45

0,5

15-24 25-29 30-49 50-59 60-74 >74

Number of Children

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Familles sansenfants en 1990

Familles d'unenfant en 1990

Familles de deuxenfants en 1990

Familles de troisenfants en 1990

Familles de quatreenfants ou plus en

1990

ABREST

0

200400

600

800

10001200

1400

1600

Familles sansenfants en

1990

Familles d'unenfant en 1990

Familles dedeux enfants

en 1990

Familles detrois enfants

en 1990

Familles dequatre enfants

ou plus en1990

REAL DATA

ARTIFICIAL

BELLERIVE SUR ALLER

An Iterative Approach for Generating Statistically Realistic Populations of Households

Floriana Gargiulo, Sônia Ternes, Sylvie Huet and Guillaume DeffuantPLoS One. 2010; 5(1): e8828

An Iterative Approach for Generating Statistically Realistic Populations of Households

Floriana Gargiulo, Sônia Ternes, Sylvie Huet and Guillaume DeffuantPLoS One. 2010; 5(1): e8828

8

The REGIONAL level: the commuting network

9

SURVEY ONCOMMUTING

DIRECTED GRAPH

UNDIRECTED GRAPH

WEIGHTED GRAPH

WEIGHTED GRAPH

UNWEIGHTED GRAPH

UNWEIGHTED GRAPH

1310 municipalities43323 directed links

10

DEGREE DISTRIBUTION

• 15014 -Aurillac • 43157 - Puy En Velay • 63014 - Aubiere• 63032 - Beaumont • 63040 - Billom • 63063 - Cebazat • 63075 - Chamalieres

• 63103 - ChatelGuyon • 63113 - Clermont Ferrand • 63124 - Cournon D’auvergne• 63164 - Gerzat• 63178 - Issoire• 63193 - Lempedes • 63284 - Pont Du Chateau

• 63300 – Riom• 63307 - Romagnat • 63430 – Thiers• 03095 - Cusset• 03118 – Gannat• 03185 – Montlucon• 03190 - Moulan • 03310 – Vichy

MUNICIPALITY WITH IN-DEGREE HIGHER THAN 100MUNICIPALITY WITH IN-DEGREE HIGHER THAN 100

11

Definition of the reachable outside

AUBIERE SAINT GERON SAINT PAULIEN