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em funds
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www.morganmarkets.com
Global Emerging Markets Equity
Research
02 January 2015
Consensus Asset Allocation
EM funds asset allocation and performance
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
Adrian Mowat AC
(852) 2800-8599
Bloomberg JPMA MOWAT
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Pedro Martins Junior, CFA
(55-11) 4950-4121
Bloomberg JPMA MARTINS
Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
David Aserkoff, CFA
(44-20) 7134-5887
Bloomberg JPMA ASERKOFF
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
Rajiv Batra
(91-22) 6157-3568
Bloomberg JPMA BATRA
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Sanaya Tavaria
(1-212) 622-5469
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Quantitative Strategy
Robert Smith
(852) 2800 8569
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 13 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
For a full list of J.P. Morgan equity
strategists please see the directory on the
back page
This report reviews the asset allocation (end November) and performance
of major emerging market funds (to 31 December). A consensus
overweight market is one in which there are more funds meaningfully
overweight relative to those that are meaningfully underweight (>2%
below index weight). The maximum, minimum and quartile cut off
position are in table 1 to 3.
The most notable finding is that consensus decreased net overweight in
China to 5 (from 10). India remains the highest net overweight market in
EM (net OW increased to 32 from 30).
Consensus is now overweight on Brazil. We downgraded Brazil to UW.
Post the election, we waited for an announcement of the new economics
team. The team's plan to reverse deterioration in the fiscal deficit is
encouraging. This reduces Brazil's risk premium but the price is weaker
growth and higher taxes. Terms of trade continue to deteriorate. Despite
the new team, Brazil continues to underperform EM.
Turkey is now consensus overweight market. Among smaller markets,
more investors added to UAE (net UW decreased to 27 from 31) and
Qatar (net UW decreased to 39 from 42) than any other market.
The number of funds outperforming the benchmark declined (sample set
is one emerging market fund from 58 global investment groups). The
sectors and markets that significantly outperformed in the past month
were China financials, China industrials, Korea IT, China, Philippines and
Indonesia. Earnings momentum, net analyst revision and price momentum
are outperforming quant factors over the last one month. Reversion, price
to book value and seasonality are key underperformers.
The dispersion of three-month returns declined in the last one month. The
beta of EM funds is now above their five-year average.
Emerging Markets net fund flows:
o 2014 YTD: Net outflows US$22.2 billion
o 2013 CY: Net outflows US$17.3 billion
Table 1: Survey of key EM managers positioning relative to MSCI EM For major EMs
Country > 2% OW < 2% UW OW-UW < 0.1% EM Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark JPM
Wts (%) Minimum Bottom quartile Median Top quartile Maximum Reco
India 33 (32) 1 (2) 32 (30) 0 (0) 7.4 (4.1) 1.6 3.3 6.5 19.4 OW
China+HK 20 (22) 15 (12) 5 (10) 1 (0) 20.2 (14.5) (2.0) 1.0 3.3 13.4 OW
Thailand 7 (8) 3 (3) 4 (5) 2 (2) 2.5 (2.5) (0.9) 0.1 1.1 7.6 OW
Brazil 13 (10) 11 (12) 2 (-2) 0 (0) 9.4 (6.4) (1.3) (0.1) 1.6 8.6 UW
Indonesia 3 (4) 6 (5) -3 (-1) 4 (4) 2.7 (2.7) (1.4) (0.2) 0.5 6.1 OW
China 14 (17) 20 (20) -6 (-3) 0 (0) 20.2 (18.1) (4.4) (0.8) 2.4 10.3 OW
Russia 3 (5) 12 (11) -9 (-6) 2 (1) 4.0 (4.0) (1.8) (0.2) 0.8 8.6 UW
Mexico 4 (5) 17 (20) -13 (-15) 0 (0) 5.1 (4.8) (2.5) (1.0) 0.3 6.0 OW
South Africa 4 (7) 26 (27) -22 (-20) 1 (0) 7.8 (7.8) (3.5) (1.9) (0.0) 6.1 UW
Korea 6 (8) 30 (28) -24 (-20) 0 (0) 14.6 (14.0) (5.7) (2.5) (0.3) 6.5 N
Taiwan 2 (5) 29 (30) -27 (-25) 1 (1) 12.4 (12.4) (6.2) (2.8) (0.1) 4.2 N
Malaysia 2 (2) 29 (29) -27 (-27) 13 (13) 3.6 (3.6) (3.3) (2.3) (1.0) 4.2 UW
Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. The survey covers 54 fund managers which is two fewer than September. The calculation of OW is greater than 2% overweight versus
the MSCI benchmark. UW is less than -2% of benchmark weighting. Fund weightings are as of 30 November 2014and MSCI weightings as of 1 December 2014. Numbers in brackets are the
previous month values. Potentially China stocks have been misclassified as Hong Kong, hence the combined weight for Hong Kong and China. Hong Kong investment may be providing non-China
exposure
2Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
Consensus Asset Allocation
This report reviews the country asset allocation of the
emerging market funds for 54 EM fund managers
surveyed by EPFR Global as of the end November
2014. A consensus overweight market is one in which
there are more funds meaningfully overweight relative to
those that are meaningfully underweight (>2% below
index weight). For smaller markets a near zero weight
( 2% OW < 2% UW OW-UW < 0.1% MSCI EM Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark
Wts (%) Minimum Bottom quartile Median Top quartile Maximum
India 33 (32) 1 (2) 32 (30) 0 (0) 7.4 (4.1) 1.6 3.3 6.5 19.4
China+HK 20 (22) 15 (12) 5 (10) 1 (0) 20.2 (14.5) (2.0) 1.0 3.3 13.4
Thailand 7 (8) 3 (3) 4 (5) 2 (2) 2.5 (2.5) (0.9) 0.1 1.1 7.6
Brazil 13 (10) 11 (12) 2 (-2) 0 (0) 9.4 (6.4) (1.3) (0.1) 1.6 8.6
Indonesia 3 (4) 6 (5) -3 (-1) 4 (4) 2.7 (2.7) (1.4) (0.2) 0.5 6.1
China 14 (17) 20 (20) -6 (-3) 0 (0) 20.2 (18.1) (4.4) (0.8) 2.4 10.3
Russia 3 (5) 12 (11) -9 (-6) 2 (1) 4.0 (4.0) (1.8) (0.2) 0.8 8.6
Mexico 4 (5) 17 (20) -13 (-15) 0 (0) 5.1 (4.8) (2.5) (1.0) 0.3 6.0
South Africa 4 (7) 26 (27) -22 (-20) 1 (0) 7.8 (7.8) (3.5) (1.9) (0.0) 6.1
Korea 6 (8) 30 (28) -24 (-20) 0 (0) 14.6 (14.0) (5.7) (2.5) (0.3) 6.5
Taiwan 2 (5) 29 (30) -27 (-25) 1 (1) 12.4 (12.4) (6.2) (2.8) (0.1) 4.2
Malaysia 2 (2) 29 (29) -27 (-27) 13 (13) 3.6 (3.6) (3.3) (2.3) (1.0) 4.2
Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations
Table 3: Survey of Key EM Managers Positioning Relative to MSCI EM For EMs that are less than 2% of the benchmark
Country > 2% OW < 0.1% UW OW-UW MSCI EM Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark
Wts (%) Minimum Bottom quartile Median Top quartile Maximum
Turkey 8 (7) 5 (7) 3 (0) 1.9 (1.9) (0.7) 0.1 1.4 6.0
Philippines 8 (8) 15 (14) -7 (-6) 1.3 (1.3) (1.3) (0.2) 0.8 3.5
Poland 0 (0) 20 (21) -20 (-21) 1.7 (1.7) (1.7) (1.1) (0.2) 1.4
Peru 3 (3) 23 (24) -20 (-21) 0.5 (0.5) (0.5) (0.1) 0.6 4.2
Chile 2 (2) 25 (24) -23 (-22) 1.4 (1.4) (1.4) (1.1) (0.4) 7.1
UAE 3 (2) 30 (33) -27 (-31) 0.7 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.1) 3.5
Greece 0 (0) 27 (27) -27 (-27) 0.6 (0.6) (0.6) (0.5) 0.0 1.8
Colombia 0 (0) 33 (31) -33 (-31) 0.8 (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.1) 1.7
Czech Republic 0 (0) 35 (36) -35 (-36) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 0.1 1.9
Egypt 1 (1) 40 (43) -39 (-42) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) 6.2
Qatar 0 (0) 39 (42) -39 (-42) 0.9 (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (0.7) 1.2
Hungary 0 (0) 41 (42) -41 (-42) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) 1.7
Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. Note: (1)
3Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
EM funds performance
Methodology:
Review the performance of 58 EM funds with daily NAV
quotes on Bloomberg to 31 December 2014. One fund is
selected for each major EM investment group. Different
domiciles and tax treatment may distort returns. EM
investment groups that just manage segregated mandates
are not captured by the analysis.
Over time the median fund will underperform the
benchmark due to costs. This is true for both active and
passive funds. The performance of the three largest EM
passive funds is in Table 4 to provide a perspective on
the impact of costs.
Beta is calculated as the slope of daily average returns of
EM funds relative to MSCI EM over one month (see
Figure 4).
Dispersion of EM funds returns is calculated as the
difference between the top quartile and the bottom
quartile cut offs over respective time periods; three
month and six month returns are annualized (see Figure
3).
Observations:
The number of funds outperforming the benchmark
declined. Factors which changed in the past month were:
1. The sectors and markets that significantly
outperformed in the past month were China
financials, China industrials, Korea IT, China,
Philippines and Indonesia.
2. Earnings momentum, net analyst revision and price
momentum are outperforming quant factors over the
last one month. Reversion, price to book value and
seasonality are key underperformers (See Figure 5).
The dispersion of three-month returns declined in the last
one month.
The beta of EM funds is now above their five-year
average.
Table 4: EM funds performance relative to MSCI EM
1M 3M 6M 12M
Emerging Markets Total Return * (2.6) (3.7) (8.6) 0.5
Minimum (2.2) (6.9) (9.0) (10.9)
Bottom Quartile (1.1) (1.9) (2.2) (3.6)
Median (0.5) (0.3) (0.8) (1.1)
Top Quartile 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.9
Maximum 2.6 4.2 8.6 8.5
EM ETFs Relative Performance
Lyxor ETF MSCI Emerging Mkt 0.0 (0.3) (0.9) (1.9)
iShares MSCI Emerging Mkt 0.6 0.3 (0.2) (1.5)
DB X-Trackers Emerging Mkt 0.4 0.2 (0.3) (1.4)
Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014.
Notes: * Absolute performance of MSCI EM gross total return index
Figure 1: Funds outperforming MSCI EM by more than 1%
Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014.
Note: Outperformance is calculated using one month rolling returns.
Figure 2: Median EM fund performance relative to MSCI EM
% outperformance
Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014.. Note: The change in the Bloomberg reported
NAV for EM funds from 58 fund management groups is used to calculate median
performance.
0
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45
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
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Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
3 Month 6 Month 12 Month
4Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
Figure 3: Dispersion of EM funds returns
Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014. Note: The dispersion is between the top quartile
and bottom quartile of three month, six month and 12 month returns. For the purpose of
comparison, three month and six month returns are annualized
Figure 4: EM funds beta relative to MSCI EM
Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014. Note: Beta is calculated as the slope of daily
average returns of EM funds relative to MSCI EM over one month. The grey line denotes
the five year average
Table 5: Simple Average Asset Allocation of Global Emerging Market Funds
Weights Performance (%)
Funds MSCI Rel Abs Rel
India 10.6 7.4 3.3 (3.1) -5.6 -2.6
Thailand 3.2 2.5 0.7 (0.7) -6.9 -4.0
Turkey 2.5 1.9 0.6 (0.4) -5.8 -2.9
Brazil 9.8 9.4 0.4 (0.1) -7.6 -4.7
China + HK 20.6 20.2 0.4 (0.4) 4.0 7.0
Philippines 1.6 1.3 0.3 (0.3) -0.7 2.3
Peru 0.7 0.5 0.2 (0.2) -4.2 -1.3
Indonesia 2.9 2.7 0.2 (0.1) -0.6 2.3
Egypt 0.4 0.2 0.1 (0.1) -1.7 1.2
Czech Republic 0.3 0.2 0.1 (0.1) -8.6 -5.6
Hungary 0.2 0.2 0 (0) -8.9 -6.0
Russia 3.9 4.0 -0.1 (0.1) -22.3 -19.4
Greece 0.3 0.6 -0.3 (-0.2) -19.2 -16.3
UAE 0.4 0.7 -0.3 (-0.2) -10.7 -7.8
Colombia 0.5 0.8 -0.3 (-0.4) -4.5 -1.6
Chile 0.9 1.4 -0.5 (-0.5) -2.6 0.3
Poland 1.1 1.7 -0.6 (-0.6) -9.1 -6.1
Qatar 0.2 0.9 -0.7 (-0.4) -3.7 -0.8
Mexico 4.3 5.1 -0.8 (-0.9) -5.8 -2.9
South Africa 6.7 7.8 -1.1 (-0.9) -1.8 1.1
Malaysia 2.2 3.6 -1.4 (-1.6) -2.6 0.3
China 18.5 20.2 -1.7 (-1.7) 4.0 7.0
Taiwan 9.5 12.4 -2.9 (-2.8) -0.9 2.1
Korea (South) 9.9 14.6 -4.7 (-4.3) -1.9 1.0
Asia 60.5 64.6 -4.1 (-4.2) -0.4 2.5
Latam 16.2 17.2 -1 (-1.5) -6.4 -3.5
EMEA 15.9 18.2 -2.3 (-1.7) -15.2 -12.3
Cash 2.1 0.0 2.1 (2.2)
Other GEMs 5.4 0.0 5.4 (5.2)
Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. Note: (1) Fund weightings are as of 30 November 2014 and MSCI weightings as of 1 December 2014. (2) The survey covers 54 fund
managers. Potentially China stocks have been misclassified as Hong Kong, hence the combined weight for Hong Kong and China. Hong Kong investment may be providing non-China exposure
Numbers in brackets are the previous month values. The performance is from current month to date performance.
0
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Mar 09 Dec 09 Sep 10 Jun 11 Mar 12 Dec 12 Sep 13 Jun 14
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Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
5Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
Quant factor performance summary charts
Figure 5: Quant factor performance summary (YTD)
Source: J.P. Morgan Quant team
Figure 6: Factor performance (3 Month)
Source: J.P. Morgan Quant team
85.0
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st
Beta Dividend Yield Price Momentum (MOMENTUM) Net analyst Revision
Forecast PE Value ROE Price to Book Value Earnings Momentum (GROWTH)
Composite Model Size Seasonality Reversion
-20.0
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to B
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igh v
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ow
)
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6Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
Emerging Markets
Figure 7: Global Emerging Markets Funds - monthly flows relative to
fund holdings
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 8: Average Cash position in Global Emerging Markets Funds
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global. Red line is 12 month moving average
Emerging Asia
Figure 9: Emerging Asia Funds - monthly flows relative to fund
holdings
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 10: Emerging Asia Funds average weightings relative to MSCI
benchmark
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Latin America
Figure 11: Latin America Funds - monthly flows relative to fund
holdings
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 12: Latin America funds average weightings relative to MSCI
benchmark
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.
10000
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI EM (RHS)
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Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Latam (RHS)
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
7Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa
Figure 13: Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Funds - monthly
flows relative to fund holdings
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 14: Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Funds average
weightings relative to MSCI benchmark
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Korea
Figure 15: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Korea stock market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 16: Korea average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Taiwan
Figure 17: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Taiwan stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 18: Taiwan average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.
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500
600
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Flows as % of Holdings MSCI EMEA (RHS)
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Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Korea (RHS)
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Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
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Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Taiwan (RHS)
-50
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
8Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
China
Figure 19: Monthly Net foreign investment into the China stock market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 20: China average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
India
Figure 21: Monthly Net foreign investment into the India stock market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 22: India average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
South Africa
Figure 23: Monthly Net foreign investment into the South Africa stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 24: South Africa average weightings relative to MSCI
benchmark and net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.
10
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90
110
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Flows as % of Holdings MSCI China (RHS)
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS) Avg wts rel benchmark
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Flows as % of Holdings MSCI India (RHS)
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Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
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Flows as % of Holdings MSCI South Africa (RHS)
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Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
9Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
Russia
Figure 25: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Russia stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 26: Russia average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Brazil
Figure 27: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Brazil stock market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 28: Brazil average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Mexico
Figure 29: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Mexico stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 30: Mexico average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.
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1600
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Russia (RHS)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
0
50000000000
100000000000
150000000000
200000000000
250000000000
300000000000
350000000000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Brazil (RHS)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
4000
14000
24000
34000
44000
54000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Mexico (RHS)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
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02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
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Thailand
Figure 31: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Thailand stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 32: Thailand average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark
and net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Malaysia
Figure 33: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Malaysia stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 34: Malaysia average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark
and net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Indonesia
Figure 35: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Indonesia stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 36: Indonesia average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark
and net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.
100
200
300
400
500
600
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Thailand (RHS)
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Malaysia (RHS)
-42
-36
-30
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Indonesia (RHS)
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
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Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
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Philippines
Figure 37: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Philippines stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 38: Philippines average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark
and net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Turkey
Figure 39: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Turkey stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 40: Turkey average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Poland
Figure 41: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Poland stock
market
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Figure 42: Poland average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and
net OW/UW
Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global
Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Philippines (RHS)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Turkey (RHS)
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Poland (RHS)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Net OW/UW (RHS)
Avg wts rel benchmark
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Adrian Mowat
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The sample set 58 funds from 58 groups
Table 6: Emerging Market Funds in the sample set
ABERDEEN GL-EMMKT EQTY-A2 INVESTEC EMERGING MKTS EQY-I
AIA EMERGING MARK EQUITY FUN JPMORGAN F-EMERG MKTS EQ-A$
AMUNDI-EQ EMERGING WORLD-AUC JUPITER GLOBAL EMERG MKT-ACC
ARTISAN EMERGING MARKETS-I$A LAZARD GL ACTIVE-EM MK EQ-IS
AXA FRAMLINGTON EMERGING M-A LM-BFM ERMG MKTS EQ FD-AA$
AXA WF-FRM EMG MKT-A M&G GLOBAL EMERGING MKT-AA
BAILLIE GIFFRD EM MK G-CNA MARTIN CURRIE EMRG MKT-A-ACC
BARING GLB EMG MKT FD-$A INC MORGAN ST INV F-EMG MK EQ-N
BGF-EMERGING MARKETS FD-A2 NEUBER BER EMER MRKTS EQ-$IA
BNPP L1-EQ WD EMERG-CC NOMURA-GLOBAL EMERGING-I-ACC
CAP INT EMERGING MKT-I USD PBI-GLOBAL EMERGING M EQ-Y
CARMIGNAC EMERGENTS-AACC PGIS-EQS EMER MKTS-I$A
CI EMERGING MARKETS FUND-A PICTET-EMERG MRKT-P$
COMGEST GROWTH EMER MKTS-USD PIONEER FUNDS-EMR MKT EQ-EA
CREDIT SUISS LX-EMER MK EQ-B PRINCIPAL GLB-EMG MK-I ACCUM
DANSKE INV-GLOBAL EM MKT-I PRO FDS.(LUX)-EM.MKTS.-B
DNB-GLB EMERGING MKTS SRI-A ROBECO EMERGING MKT EQY-D
DWS EMERGING MARKETS EQ-S SKAGEN KON-TIKI
EASTSPRING INV GL EM DY-D SSGA GLOBAL EMERGING MRKT-P
EDM ROTH PRI-EM MKT EQY-A$ T. ROWE PRICE-GLB EM MK EQ-I
F&C EMERGING MARKETS-3 ACC TRILOGY EMERGING MARKETS-C
FIDELITY FDS-EMERG MK-Y ACC$ UBS LUX EQ-EMRG MRKT-P$
FIRST STATE-GL EM MK LDR-I VONTOBEL-EMERG MARKET EQ-B
FRANK TEMP INV EMG MKT-A ACC WELLINGTON EMG MKT EQPOR-A
GENESIS EMERGING MKTS INV -B WILLIAM BLAIR-EMERG MRKTS-Z
GS GR & EM MRKT BROAD EQTY ALLIANZ AGIC EM MKTS OPP-INS
HENDERSON GART-EMER MKT-R$A MANNING & NAPIER EMERGING MK
HSBC GIF-GL EMERG MKT EQY-AD BERENBERG EMER MKT EQY SEL-I
INVESCO EMG MKTS EQUITY-A OPPENHEIMER DEVELOPING MKT-A
Source: Bloomberg
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16
Global Emerging Markets Equity Research
02 January 2015
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Strategy Team
Chief Equity Strategists
Adrian Mowat Asia and Emerging Markets (852) 2800 8599 [email protected]
Pedro Martins Junior LatAm (55-11) 4950 4121 [email protected]
David Aserkoff CEEMEA (44-20) 7134-5887 [email protected]
Frontier Markets
Aditya Srinath ASEAN (66-21) 5291 8573 [email protected]
David Aserkoff MENA (44-20) 7134-5887 [email protected]
Diego Celedon Southern cone and Andean (562) 425 5245 [email protected]
Developed Markets
Mislav Matejka Global and Europe (44-20) 7325 5242 [email protected]
Dubravko Lakos US (1-212) 622 3601 [email protected]
Jesper J Koll Japan Equity Strategy (81-3) 6736 8600 [email protected]
Country Strategists
Adrian Mowat China (852) 2800 8599 [email protected]
Emy Shayo Brazil (55-11) 3048 6684 [email protected]
Bharat Iyer India (91-22) 6157 3600 [email protected]
Aditya Srinath Indonesia (62-21) 5291 8573 [email protected]
Scott Seo Korea (82-2) 758 5759 [email protected]
Hoy Kit Mak Malaysia (60-3) 2270 4728 [email protected]
Nur Cristiani Mexico (5255) 5540 9374 [email protected]
Jeanette Yutan Philippines (63-2) 878-1131 [email protected]
Alex Kantarovich Russia (7-495) 967 3172 [email protected]
Ayan Ghosh South Africa (27-11) 507-0372 [email protected]
Anne Jirajariyavech Thailand (66-2) 684 2684 [email protected]
Alvin Kwock Taiwan (852) 2800-8533 [email protected]
Economic & Policy Research
Joyce Chang Global Head of Research (1-212) 834 4203 [email protected]
Luis Oganes Global Head of Emerging Markets Research (1-212) 834-4326 [email protected]
Jahangir Aziz Emerging Asia (1-202) 585 1254 [email protected]
Vladimir Werning Head of Latin America Research (1-212) 834 4144 [email protected]
Sin Beng Ong ASEAN (65) 6882-1623 [email protected]
Grace Ng Taiwan and Hong Kong (852) 2800 7002 [email protected]
Haibin Zhu China (852) 2800 7039 [email protected]
Jiwon Lim Korea (82-2) 758 5509 [email protected]
Sajjid Z Chinoy India (9122) 6157 3386 [email protected]
Fabio Akira Brazil (55-11) 3048 3634 [email protected]
Gabriel Lozano Mexico (52-55)-5540-9558 [email protected]
Michael Marrese Regional Head, Emerging Europe (44-20) 7777 4627 [email protected]
Sonja Keller South Africa (27-11) 507 0376 [email protected]
Yarkin Cebeci Turkey (90-212) 326 5890 [email protected]
Anatoliy A Shal Russia (7-495) 937-7321 [email protected]
Nora Szentivanyi Hungary, Poland (44-20) 7777 3981 [email protected]
Nicolaie Alexandru Czech Republic (44-20) 7742 2466 [email protected]
Rates Research
Bert Gochet Head of EM Asia Local Markets Strategy (852) 2800 8325 [email protected]
Jonny Goulden Head of EMEA EM Local Markets (44-20) 7134-4470 [email protected]
Holly Huffman Head of Latin America Local Markets (1-212) 834-4953 [email protected]
Consensus Asset AllocationEM funds performanceQuant factor performance summary chartsEmerging MarketsEmerging AsiaLatin AmericaKoreaTaiwanChinaIndiaSouth AfricaRussiaBrazilMexicoThailandMalaysiaIndonesiaPhilippinesTurkeyPolandThe sample set 58 funds from 58 groups