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www.morganmarkets.com Global Emerging Markets Equity Research 02 January 2015 Consensus Asset Allocation EM funds asset allocation and performance Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Adrian Mowat AC (852) 2800-8599 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA MOWAT <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Pedro Martins Junior, CFA (55-11) 4950-4121 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA MARTINS <GO> Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. David Aserkoff, CFA (44-20) 7134-5887 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA ASERKOFF <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities plc Rajiv Batra (91-22) 6157-3568 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA BATRA <GO> J.P. Morgan India Private Limited Sanaya Tavaria (1-212) 622-5469 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Quantitative Strategy Robert Smith (852) 2800 8569 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited See page 13 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For a full list of J.P. Morgan equity strategists please see the directory on the back page This report reviews the asset allocation (end November) and performance of major emerging market funds (to 31 December). A consensus overweight market is one in which there are more funds meaningfully overweight relative to those that are meaningfully underweight (>2% below index weight). The maximum, minimum and quartile cut off position are in table 1 to 3. The most notable finding is that consensus decreased net overweight in China to 5 (from 10). India remains the highest net overweight market in EM (net OW increased to 32 from 30). Consensus is now overweight on Brazil. We downgraded Brazil to UW. Post the election, we waited for an announcement of the new economics team. The team's plan to reverse deterioration in the fiscal deficit is encouraging. This reduces Brazil's risk premium but the price is weaker growth and higher taxes. Terms of trade continue to deteriorate. Despite the new team, Brazil continues to underperform EM. Turkey is now consensus overweight market. Among smaller markets, more investors added to UAE (net UW decreased to 27 from 31) and Qatar (net UW decreased to 39 from 42) than any other market. The number of funds outperforming the benchmark declined (sample set is one emerging market fund from 58 global investment groups). The sectors and markets that significantly outperformed in the past month were China financials, China industrials, Korea IT, China, Philippines and Indonesia. Earnings momentum, net analyst revision and price momentum are outperforming quant factors over the last one month. Reversion, price to book value and seasonality are key underperformers. The dispersion of three-month returns declined in the last one month. The beta of EM funds is now above their five-year average. Emerging Markets net fund flows: o 2014 YTD: Net outflows US$22.2 billion o 2013 CY: Net outflows US$17.3 billion Table 1: Survey of key EM managers positioning relative to MSCI EM – For major EMs Country > 2% OW < 2% UW OW-UW < 0.1% EM Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark JPM Wts (%) Minimum Bottom quartile Median Top quartile Maximum Reco India 33 (32) 1 (2) 32 (30) 0 (0) 7.4 (4.1) 1.6 3.3 6.5 19.4 OW China+HK 20 (22) 15 (12) 5 (10) 1 (0) 20.2 (14.5) (2.0) 1.0 3.3 13.4 OW Thailand 7 (8) 3 (3) 4 (5) 2 (2) 2.5 (2.5) (0.9) 0.1 1.1 7.6 OW Brazil 13 (10) 11 (12) 2 (-2) 0 (0) 9.4 (6.4) (1.3) (0.1) 1.6 8.6 UW Indonesia 3 (4) 6 (5) -3 (-1) 4 (4) 2.7 (2.7) (1.4) (0.2) 0.5 6.1 OW China 14 (17) 20 (20) -6 (-3) 0 (0) 20.2 (18.1) (4.4) (0.8) 2.4 10.3 OW Russia 3 (5) 12 (11) -9 (-6) 2 (1) 4.0 (4.0) (1.8) (0.2) 0.8 8.6 UW Mexico 4 (5) 17 (20) -13 (-15) 0 (0) 5.1 (4.8) (2.5) (1.0) 0.3 6.0 OW South Africa 4 (7) 26 (27) -22 (-20) 1 (0) 7.8 (7.8) (3.5) (1.9) (0.0) 6.1 UW Korea 6 (8) 30 (28) -24 (-20) 0 (0) 14.6 (14.0) (5.7) (2.5) (0.3) 6.5 N Taiwan 2 (5) 29 (30) -27 (-25) 1 (1) 12.4 (12.4) (6.2) (2.8) (0.1) 4.2 N Malaysia 2 (2) 29 (29) -27 (-27) 13 (13) 3.6 (3.6) (3.3) (2.3) (1.0) 4.2 UW Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. The survey covers 54 fund managers which is two fewer than September. The calculation of OW is greater than 2% overweight versus the MSCI benchmark. UW is less than -2% of benchmark weighting. Fund weightings are as of 30 November 2014and MSCI weightings as of 1 December 2014. Numbers in brackets are the previous month values. Potentially China stocks have been misclassified as Hong Kong, hence the combined weight for Hong Kong and China. Hong Kong investment may be providing non-China exposure

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  • www.morganmarkets.com

    Global Emerging Markets Equity

    Research

    02 January 2015

    Consensus Asset Allocation

    EM funds asset allocation and performance

    Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

    Adrian Mowat AC

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Bloomberg JPMA MOWAT

    J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited

    Pedro Martins Junior, CFA

    (55-11) 4950-4121

    [email protected]

    Bloomberg JPMA MARTINS

    Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

    David Aserkoff, CFA

    (44-20) 7134-5887

    [email protected]

    Bloomberg JPMA ASERKOFF

    J.P. Morgan Securities plc

    Rajiv Batra

    (91-22) 6157-3568

    [email protected]

    Bloomberg JPMA BATRA

    J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

    Sanaya Tavaria

    (1-212) 622-5469

    [email protected]

    J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

    Quantitative Strategy

    Robert Smith

    (852) 2800 8569

    [email protected]

    J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited

    See page 13 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

    J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

    firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in

    making their investment decision.

    For a full list of J.P. Morgan equity

    strategists please see the directory on the

    back page

    This report reviews the asset allocation (end November) and performance

    of major emerging market funds (to 31 December). A consensus

    overweight market is one in which there are more funds meaningfully

    overweight relative to those that are meaningfully underweight (>2%

    below index weight). The maximum, minimum and quartile cut off

    position are in table 1 to 3.

    The most notable finding is that consensus decreased net overweight in

    China to 5 (from 10). India remains the highest net overweight market in

    EM (net OW increased to 32 from 30).

    Consensus is now overweight on Brazil. We downgraded Brazil to UW.

    Post the election, we waited for an announcement of the new economics

    team. The team's plan to reverse deterioration in the fiscal deficit is

    encouraging. This reduces Brazil's risk premium but the price is weaker

    growth and higher taxes. Terms of trade continue to deteriorate. Despite

    the new team, Brazil continues to underperform EM.

    Turkey is now consensus overweight market. Among smaller markets,

    more investors added to UAE (net UW decreased to 27 from 31) and

    Qatar (net UW decreased to 39 from 42) than any other market.

    The number of funds outperforming the benchmark declined (sample set

    is one emerging market fund from 58 global investment groups). The

    sectors and markets that significantly outperformed in the past month

    were China financials, China industrials, Korea IT, China, Philippines and

    Indonesia. Earnings momentum, net analyst revision and price momentum

    are outperforming quant factors over the last one month. Reversion, price

    to book value and seasonality are key underperformers.

    The dispersion of three-month returns declined in the last one month. The

    beta of EM funds is now above their five-year average.

    Emerging Markets net fund flows:

    o 2014 YTD: Net outflows US$22.2 billion

    o 2013 CY: Net outflows US$17.3 billion

    Table 1: Survey of key EM managers positioning relative to MSCI EM For major EMs

    Country > 2% OW < 2% UW OW-UW < 0.1% EM Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark JPM

    Wts (%) Minimum Bottom quartile Median Top quartile Maximum Reco

    India 33 (32) 1 (2) 32 (30) 0 (0) 7.4 (4.1) 1.6 3.3 6.5 19.4 OW

    China+HK 20 (22) 15 (12) 5 (10) 1 (0) 20.2 (14.5) (2.0) 1.0 3.3 13.4 OW

    Thailand 7 (8) 3 (3) 4 (5) 2 (2) 2.5 (2.5) (0.9) 0.1 1.1 7.6 OW

    Brazil 13 (10) 11 (12) 2 (-2) 0 (0) 9.4 (6.4) (1.3) (0.1) 1.6 8.6 UW

    Indonesia 3 (4) 6 (5) -3 (-1) 4 (4) 2.7 (2.7) (1.4) (0.2) 0.5 6.1 OW

    China 14 (17) 20 (20) -6 (-3) 0 (0) 20.2 (18.1) (4.4) (0.8) 2.4 10.3 OW

    Russia 3 (5) 12 (11) -9 (-6) 2 (1) 4.0 (4.0) (1.8) (0.2) 0.8 8.6 UW

    Mexico 4 (5) 17 (20) -13 (-15) 0 (0) 5.1 (4.8) (2.5) (1.0) 0.3 6.0 OW

    South Africa 4 (7) 26 (27) -22 (-20) 1 (0) 7.8 (7.8) (3.5) (1.9) (0.0) 6.1 UW

    Korea 6 (8) 30 (28) -24 (-20) 0 (0) 14.6 (14.0) (5.7) (2.5) (0.3) 6.5 N

    Taiwan 2 (5) 29 (30) -27 (-25) 1 (1) 12.4 (12.4) (6.2) (2.8) (0.1) 4.2 N

    Malaysia 2 (2) 29 (29) -27 (-27) 13 (13) 3.6 (3.6) (3.3) (2.3) (1.0) 4.2 UW

    Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. The survey covers 54 fund managers which is two fewer than September. The calculation of OW is greater than 2% overweight versus

    the MSCI benchmark. UW is less than -2% of benchmark weighting. Fund weightings are as of 30 November 2014and MSCI weightings as of 1 December 2014. Numbers in brackets are the

    previous month values. Potentially China stocks have been misclassified as Hong Kong, hence the combined weight for Hong Kong and China. Hong Kong investment may be providing non-China

    exposure

  • 2Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Consensus Asset Allocation

    This report reviews the country asset allocation of the

    emerging market funds for 54 EM fund managers

    surveyed by EPFR Global as of the end November

    2014. A consensus overweight market is one in which

    there are more funds meaningfully overweight relative to

    those that are meaningfully underweight (>2% below

    index weight). For smaller markets a near zero weight

    ( 2% OW < 2% UW OW-UW < 0.1% MSCI EM Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark

    Wts (%) Minimum Bottom quartile Median Top quartile Maximum

    India 33 (32) 1 (2) 32 (30) 0 (0) 7.4 (4.1) 1.6 3.3 6.5 19.4

    China+HK 20 (22) 15 (12) 5 (10) 1 (0) 20.2 (14.5) (2.0) 1.0 3.3 13.4

    Thailand 7 (8) 3 (3) 4 (5) 2 (2) 2.5 (2.5) (0.9) 0.1 1.1 7.6

    Brazil 13 (10) 11 (12) 2 (-2) 0 (0) 9.4 (6.4) (1.3) (0.1) 1.6 8.6

    Indonesia 3 (4) 6 (5) -3 (-1) 4 (4) 2.7 (2.7) (1.4) (0.2) 0.5 6.1

    China 14 (17) 20 (20) -6 (-3) 0 (0) 20.2 (18.1) (4.4) (0.8) 2.4 10.3

    Russia 3 (5) 12 (11) -9 (-6) 2 (1) 4.0 (4.0) (1.8) (0.2) 0.8 8.6

    Mexico 4 (5) 17 (20) -13 (-15) 0 (0) 5.1 (4.8) (2.5) (1.0) 0.3 6.0

    South Africa 4 (7) 26 (27) -22 (-20) 1 (0) 7.8 (7.8) (3.5) (1.9) (0.0) 6.1

    Korea 6 (8) 30 (28) -24 (-20) 0 (0) 14.6 (14.0) (5.7) (2.5) (0.3) 6.5

    Taiwan 2 (5) 29 (30) -27 (-25) 1 (1) 12.4 (12.4) (6.2) (2.8) (0.1) 4.2

    Malaysia 2 (2) 29 (29) -27 (-27) 13 (13) 3.6 (3.6) (3.3) (2.3) (1.0) 4.2

    Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations

    Table 3: Survey of Key EM Managers Positioning Relative to MSCI EM For EMs that are less than 2% of the benchmark

    Country > 2% OW < 0.1% UW OW-UW MSCI EM Funds asset allocation relative to MSCI EM Benchmark

    Wts (%) Minimum Bottom quartile Median Top quartile Maximum

    Turkey 8 (7) 5 (7) 3 (0) 1.9 (1.9) (0.7) 0.1 1.4 6.0

    Philippines 8 (8) 15 (14) -7 (-6) 1.3 (1.3) (1.3) (0.2) 0.8 3.5

    Poland 0 (0) 20 (21) -20 (-21) 1.7 (1.7) (1.7) (1.1) (0.2) 1.4

    Peru 3 (3) 23 (24) -20 (-21) 0.5 (0.5) (0.5) (0.1) 0.6 4.2

    Chile 2 (2) 25 (24) -23 (-22) 1.4 (1.4) (1.4) (1.1) (0.4) 7.1

    UAE 3 (2) 30 (33) -27 (-31) 0.7 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.1) 3.5

    Greece 0 (0) 27 (27) -27 (-27) 0.6 (0.6) (0.6) (0.5) 0.0 1.8

    Colombia 0 (0) 33 (31) -33 (-31) 0.8 (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.1) 1.7

    Czech Republic 0 (0) 35 (36) -35 (-36) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 0.1 1.9

    Egypt 1 (1) 40 (43) -39 (-42) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) 6.2

    Qatar 0 (0) 39 (42) -39 (-42) 0.9 (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (0.7) 1.2

    Hungary 0 (0) 41 (42) -41 (-42) 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) 1.7

    Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. Note: (1)

  • 3Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    EM funds performance

    Methodology:

    Review the performance of 58 EM funds with daily NAV

    quotes on Bloomberg to 31 December 2014. One fund is

    selected for each major EM investment group. Different

    domiciles and tax treatment may distort returns. EM

    investment groups that just manage segregated mandates

    are not captured by the analysis.

    Over time the median fund will underperform the

    benchmark due to costs. This is true for both active and

    passive funds. The performance of the three largest EM

    passive funds is in Table 4 to provide a perspective on

    the impact of costs.

    Beta is calculated as the slope of daily average returns of

    EM funds relative to MSCI EM over one month (see

    Figure 4).

    Dispersion of EM funds returns is calculated as the

    difference between the top quartile and the bottom

    quartile cut offs over respective time periods; three

    month and six month returns are annualized (see Figure

    3).

    Observations:

    The number of funds outperforming the benchmark

    declined. Factors which changed in the past month were:

    1. The sectors and markets that significantly

    outperformed in the past month were China

    financials, China industrials, Korea IT, China,

    Philippines and Indonesia.

    2. Earnings momentum, net analyst revision and price

    momentum are outperforming quant factors over the

    last one month. Reversion, price to book value and

    seasonality are key underperformers (See Figure 5).

    The dispersion of three-month returns declined in the last

    one month.

    The beta of EM funds is now above their five-year

    average.

    Table 4: EM funds performance relative to MSCI EM

    1M 3M 6M 12M

    Emerging Markets Total Return * (2.6) (3.7) (8.6) 0.5

    Minimum (2.2) (6.9) (9.0) (10.9)

    Bottom Quartile (1.1) (1.9) (2.2) (3.6)

    Median (0.5) (0.3) (0.8) (1.1)

    Top Quartile 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.9

    Maximum 2.6 4.2 8.6 8.5

    EM ETFs Relative Performance

    Lyxor ETF MSCI Emerging Mkt 0.0 (0.3) (0.9) (1.9)

    iShares MSCI Emerging Mkt 0.6 0.3 (0.2) (1.5)

    DB X-Trackers Emerging Mkt 0.4 0.2 (0.3) (1.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014.

    Notes: * Absolute performance of MSCI EM gross total return index

    Figure 1: Funds outperforming MSCI EM by more than 1%

    Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014.

    Note: Outperformance is calculated using one month rolling returns.

    Figure 2: Median EM fund performance relative to MSCI EM

    % outperformance

    Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014.. Note: The change in the Bloomberg reported

    NAV for EM funds from 58 fund management groups is used to calculate median

    performance.

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  • 4Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Figure 3: Dispersion of EM funds returns

    Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014. Note: The dispersion is between the top quartile

    and bottom quartile of three month, six month and 12 month returns. For the purpose of

    comparison, three month and six month returns are annualized

    Figure 4: EM funds beta relative to MSCI EM

    Source: Bloomberg, 31 December 2014. Note: Beta is calculated as the slope of daily

    average returns of EM funds relative to MSCI EM over one month. The grey line denotes

    the five year average

    Table 5: Simple Average Asset Allocation of Global Emerging Market Funds

    Weights Performance (%)

    Funds MSCI Rel Abs Rel

    India 10.6 7.4 3.3 (3.1) -5.6 -2.6

    Thailand 3.2 2.5 0.7 (0.7) -6.9 -4.0

    Turkey 2.5 1.9 0.6 (0.4) -5.8 -2.9

    Brazil 9.8 9.4 0.4 (0.1) -7.6 -4.7

    China + HK 20.6 20.2 0.4 (0.4) 4.0 7.0

    Philippines 1.6 1.3 0.3 (0.3) -0.7 2.3

    Peru 0.7 0.5 0.2 (0.2) -4.2 -1.3

    Indonesia 2.9 2.7 0.2 (0.1) -0.6 2.3

    Egypt 0.4 0.2 0.1 (0.1) -1.7 1.2

    Czech Republic 0.3 0.2 0.1 (0.1) -8.6 -5.6

    Hungary 0.2 0.2 0 (0) -8.9 -6.0

    Russia 3.9 4.0 -0.1 (0.1) -22.3 -19.4

    Greece 0.3 0.6 -0.3 (-0.2) -19.2 -16.3

    UAE 0.4 0.7 -0.3 (-0.2) -10.7 -7.8

    Colombia 0.5 0.8 -0.3 (-0.4) -4.5 -1.6

    Chile 0.9 1.4 -0.5 (-0.5) -2.6 0.3

    Poland 1.1 1.7 -0.6 (-0.6) -9.1 -6.1

    Qatar 0.2 0.9 -0.7 (-0.4) -3.7 -0.8

    Mexico 4.3 5.1 -0.8 (-0.9) -5.8 -2.9

    South Africa 6.7 7.8 -1.1 (-0.9) -1.8 1.1

    Malaysia 2.2 3.6 -1.4 (-1.6) -2.6 0.3

    China 18.5 20.2 -1.7 (-1.7) 4.0 7.0

    Taiwan 9.5 12.4 -2.9 (-2.8) -0.9 2.1

    Korea (South) 9.9 14.6 -4.7 (-4.3) -1.9 1.0

    Asia 60.5 64.6 -4.1 (-4.2) -0.4 2.5

    Latam 16.2 17.2 -1 (-1.5) -6.4 -3.5

    EMEA 15.9 18.2 -2.3 (-1.7) -15.2 -12.3

    Cash 2.1 0.0 2.1 (2.2)

    Other GEMs 5.4 0.0 5.4 (5.2)

    Source: EPFR Global, MSCI, J.P. Morgan calculations. Note: (1) Fund weightings are as of 30 November 2014 and MSCI weightings as of 1 December 2014. (2) The survey covers 54 fund

    managers. Potentially China stocks have been misclassified as Hong Kong, hence the combined weight for Hong Kong and China. Hong Kong investment may be providing non-China exposure

    Numbers in brackets are the previous month values. The performance is from current month to date performance.

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  • 5Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Quant factor performance summary charts

    Figure 5: Quant factor performance summary (YTD)

    Source: J.P. Morgan Quant team

    Figure 6: Factor performance (3 Month)

    Source: J.P. Morgan Quant team

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    Forecast PE Value ROE Price to Book Value Earnings Momentum (GROWTH)

    Composite Model Size Seasonality Reversion

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  • 6Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Emerging Markets

    Figure 7: Global Emerging Markets Funds - monthly flows relative to

    fund holdings

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 8: Average Cash position in Global Emerging Markets Funds

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global. Red line is 12 month moving average

    Emerging Asia

    Figure 9: Emerging Asia Funds - monthly flows relative to fund

    holdings

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 10: Emerging Asia Funds average weightings relative to MSCI

    benchmark

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Latin America

    Figure 11: Latin America Funds - monthly flows relative to fund

    holdings

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 12: Latin America funds average weightings relative to MSCI

    benchmark

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.

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    2

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    0

    2000000

    4000000

    6000000

    8000000

    10000000

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Latam (RHS)

    -7

    -6

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

  • 7Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa

    Figure 13: Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Funds - monthly

    flows relative to fund holdings

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 14: Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Funds average

    weightings relative to MSCI benchmark

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Korea

    Figure 15: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Korea stock market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 16: Korea average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Taiwan

    Figure 17: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Taiwan stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 18: Taiwan average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI EMEA (RHS)

    -6

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    50

    150

    250

    350

    450

    550

    650

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Korea (RHS)

    -35

    -30

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    -7

    -6

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Taiwan (RHS)

    -50

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    -15

    -12

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

  • 8Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    China

    Figure 19: Monthly Net foreign investment into the China stock market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 20: China average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    India

    Figure 21: Monthly Net foreign investment into the India stock market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 22: India average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    South Africa

    Figure 23: Monthly Net foreign investment into the South Africa stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 24: South Africa average weightings relative to MSCI

    benchmark and net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.

    10

    30

    50

    70

    90

    110

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI China (RHS)

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS) Avg wts rel benchmark

    100

    300

    500

    700

    900

    1100

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI India (RHS)

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    100

    300

    500

    700

    900

    1100

    1300

    1500

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI South Africa (RHS)

    -30

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    -7

    -6

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

  • 9Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Russia

    Figure 25: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Russia stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 26: Russia average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Brazil

    Figure 27: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Brazil stock market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 28: Brazil average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Mexico

    Figure 29: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Mexico stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 30: Mexico average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Russia (RHS)

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    -2.0

    -1.5

    -1.0

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    0

    50000000000

    100000000000

    150000000000

    200000000000

    250000000000

    300000000000

    350000000000

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Brazil (RHS)

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    4000

    14000

    24000

    34000

    44000

    54000

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Mexico (RHS)

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    -2.0

    -1.5

    -1.0

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

  • 10

    Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Thailand

    Figure 31: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Thailand stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 32: Thailand average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark

    and net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Malaysia

    Figure 33: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Malaysia stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 34: Malaysia average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark

    and net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Indonesia

    Figure 35: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Indonesia stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 36: Indonesia average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark

    and net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Thailand (RHS)

    -12

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    16

    -1.5

    -1.0

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Malaysia (RHS)

    -42

    -36

    -30

    -24

    -18

    -12

    -6

    0

    6

    -7.0

    -6.0

    -5.0

    -4.0

    -3.0

    -2.0

    -1.0

    0.0

    1.0

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Indonesia (RHS)

    -12

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    -1.5

    -1.0

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

  • 11

    Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    Philippines

    Figure 37: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Philippines stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 38: Philippines average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark

    and net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Turkey

    Figure 39: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Turkey stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 40: Turkey average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Poland

    Figure 41: Monthly Net foreign investment into the Poland stock

    market

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Figure 42: Poland average weightings relative to MSCI benchmark and

    net OW/UW

    Source: MSCI, Datastream, EPFR Global

    Note: Red line in charts above indicates 12-month moving average.

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Philippines (RHS)

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    0

    200000

    400000

    600000

    800000

    1000000

    1200000

    1400000

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Turkey (RHS)

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    16

    20

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Flows as % of Holdings MSCI Poland (RHS)

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    -1.5

    -1.0

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Net OW/UW (RHS)

    Avg wts rel benchmark

  • 12

    Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    The sample set 58 funds from 58 groups

    Table 6: Emerging Market Funds in the sample set

    ABERDEEN GL-EMMKT EQTY-A2 INVESTEC EMERGING MKTS EQY-I

    AIA EMERGING MARK EQUITY FUN JPMORGAN F-EMERG MKTS EQ-A$

    AMUNDI-EQ EMERGING WORLD-AUC JUPITER GLOBAL EMERG MKT-ACC

    ARTISAN EMERGING MARKETS-I$A LAZARD GL ACTIVE-EM MK EQ-IS

    AXA FRAMLINGTON EMERGING M-A LM-BFM ERMG MKTS EQ FD-AA$

    AXA WF-FRM EMG MKT-A M&G GLOBAL EMERGING MKT-AA

    BAILLIE GIFFRD EM MK G-CNA MARTIN CURRIE EMRG MKT-A-ACC

    BARING GLB EMG MKT FD-$A INC MORGAN ST INV F-EMG MK EQ-N

    BGF-EMERGING MARKETS FD-A2 NEUBER BER EMER MRKTS EQ-$IA

    BNPP L1-EQ WD EMERG-CC NOMURA-GLOBAL EMERGING-I-ACC

    CAP INT EMERGING MKT-I USD PBI-GLOBAL EMERGING M EQ-Y

    CARMIGNAC EMERGENTS-AACC PGIS-EQS EMER MKTS-I$A

    CI EMERGING MARKETS FUND-A PICTET-EMERG MRKT-P$

    COMGEST GROWTH EMER MKTS-USD PIONEER FUNDS-EMR MKT EQ-EA

    CREDIT SUISS LX-EMER MK EQ-B PRINCIPAL GLB-EMG MK-I ACCUM

    DANSKE INV-GLOBAL EM MKT-I PRO FDS.(LUX)-EM.MKTS.-B

    DNB-GLB EMERGING MKTS SRI-A ROBECO EMERGING MKT EQY-D

    DWS EMERGING MARKETS EQ-S SKAGEN KON-TIKI

    EASTSPRING INV GL EM DY-D SSGA GLOBAL EMERGING MRKT-P

    EDM ROTH PRI-EM MKT EQY-A$ T. ROWE PRICE-GLB EM MK EQ-I

    F&C EMERGING MARKETS-3 ACC TRILOGY EMERGING MARKETS-C

    FIDELITY FDS-EMERG MK-Y ACC$ UBS LUX EQ-EMRG MRKT-P$

    FIRST STATE-GL EM MK LDR-I VONTOBEL-EMERG MARKET EQ-B

    FRANK TEMP INV EMG MKT-A ACC WELLINGTON EMG MKT EQPOR-A

    GENESIS EMERGING MKTS INV -B WILLIAM BLAIR-EMERG MRKTS-Z

    GS GR & EM MRKT BROAD EQTY ALLIANZ AGIC EM MKTS OPP-INS

    HENDERSON GART-EMER MKT-R$A MANNING & NAPIER EMERGING MK

    HSBC GIF-GL EMERG MKT EQY-AD BERENBERG EMER MKT EQY SEL-I

    INVESCO EMG MKTS EQUITY-A OPPENHEIMER DEVELOPING MKT-A

    Source: Bloomberg

  • 13

    Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

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  • 14

    Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

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  • 15

    Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

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  • 16

    Global Emerging Markets Equity Research

    02 January 2015

    Adrian Mowat

    (852) 2800-8599

    [email protected]

    J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Strategy Team

    Chief Equity Strategists

    Adrian Mowat Asia and Emerging Markets (852) 2800 8599 [email protected]

    Pedro Martins Junior LatAm (55-11) 4950 4121 [email protected]

    David Aserkoff CEEMEA (44-20) 7134-5887 [email protected]

    Frontier Markets

    Aditya Srinath ASEAN (66-21) 5291 8573 [email protected]

    David Aserkoff MENA (44-20) 7134-5887 [email protected]

    Diego Celedon Southern cone and Andean (562) 425 5245 [email protected]

    Developed Markets

    Mislav Matejka Global and Europe (44-20) 7325 5242 [email protected]

    Dubravko Lakos US (1-212) 622 3601 [email protected]

    Jesper J Koll Japan Equity Strategy (81-3) 6736 8600 [email protected]

    Country Strategists

    Adrian Mowat China (852) 2800 8599 [email protected]

    Emy Shayo Brazil (55-11) 3048 6684 [email protected]

    Bharat Iyer India (91-22) 6157 3600 [email protected]

    Aditya Srinath Indonesia (62-21) 5291 8573 [email protected]

    Scott Seo Korea (82-2) 758 5759 [email protected]

    Hoy Kit Mak Malaysia (60-3) 2270 4728 [email protected]

    Nur Cristiani Mexico (5255) 5540 9374 [email protected]

    Jeanette Yutan Philippines (63-2) 878-1131 [email protected]

    Alex Kantarovich Russia (7-495) 967 3172 [email protected]

    Ayan Ghosh South Africa (27-11) 507-0372 [email protected]

    Anne Jirajariyavech Thailand (66-2) 684 2684 [email protected]

    Alvin Kwock Taiwan (852) 2800-8533 [email protected]

    Economic & Policy Research

    Joyce Chang Global Head of Research (1-212) 834 4203 [email protected]

    Luis Oganes Global Head of Emerging Markets Research (1-212) 834-4326 [email protected]

    Jahangir Aziz Emerging Asia (1-202) 585 1254 [email protected]

    Vladimir Werning Head of Latin America Research (1-212) 834 4144 [email protected]

    Sin Beng Ong ASEAN (65) 6882-1623 [email protected]

    Grace Ng Taiwan and Hong Kong (852) 2800 7002 [email protected]

    Haibin Zhu China (852) 2800 7039 [email protected]

    Jiwon Lim Korea (82-2) 758 5509 [email protected]

    Sajjid Z Chinoy India (9122) 6157 3386 [email protected]

    Fabio Akira Brazil (55-11) 3048 3634 [email protected]

    Gabriel Lozano Mexico (52-55)-5540-9558 [email protected]

    Michael Marrese Regional Head, Emerging Europe (44-20) 7777 4627 [email protected]

    Sonja Keller South Africa (27-11) 507 0376 [email protected]

    Yarkin Cebeci Turkey (90-212) 326 5890 [email protected]

    Anatoliy A Shal Russia (7-495) 937-7321 [email protected]

    Nora Szentivanyi Hungary, Poland (44-20) 7777 3981 [email protected]

    Nicolaie Alexandru Czech Republic (44-20) 7742 2466 [email protected]

    Rates Research

    Bert Gochet Head of EM Asia Local Markets Strategy (852) 2800 8325 [email protected]

    Jonny Goulden Head of EMEA EM Local Markets (44-20) 7134-4470 [email protected]

    Holly Huffman Head of Latin America Local Markets (1-212) 834-4953 [email protected]

    Consensus Asset AllocationEM funds performanceQuant factor performance summary chartsEmerging MarketsEmerging AsiaLatin AmericaKoreaTaiwanChinaIndiaSouth AfricaRussiaBrazilMexicoThailandMalaysiaIndonesiaPhilippinesTurkeyPolandThe sample set 58 funds from 58 groups