University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011

50% increase in population by 2050

70% increase in food demand by 2050

40% increase in energy demand by 2030The challenge is not simply meeting increased

demand, but doing so sustainably.

Slide 5

(EPA, 2010)

(EIA, 2010)

Emerging policy innovationsSynergies with poverty

alleviationPerhaps better to ask “How?”

1. How much land is available?2. What are the life-cycle impacts?3. What is bioenergy precarious role in

the climate-energy nexus?

12

17001710

17201) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE)

2) Exclude agriculture-to-forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1)

3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA)

4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands.

13

14(Campbell et al., ES&T, 2008)

Algae bioenergy sustainability (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011) Wastewater co-benefits Efficient harvesting with electrocoagulation and electrofloculation

(Trent, 2010)

Electrocoagulation / Electroflocculation

Surface charge analysis of algae

(Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011)

A global resource… Abandoned Agriculture

Regional opportunities… Mountaintop Mining

No land use… Offshore Algae Not commercially viable yet Electrochemical approach is emerging

Slide 20

?

(Campbell et al., Science, 2009)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Gro

ss E

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ricity

Out

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Fuel

Cyc

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ric I

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0

10

20

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utpu

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ion

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eage

(10

3m

i ha

-1y-1

)

a) Ethanol b) Bioelectricity

(Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, 2009)23

(Campbell, Sloan, Snyder, et al., In Prep)

2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Year

Future

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Yiel

d A

nom

aly

(%)

Year

Historical

Volatility = 15% Volatility = 30%

(DOE, 2009)

Converting Brazilian residue to electricity has greater GHG benefits than conversion to ethanol

Residue-based ethanol has small impact on US energy security but electricity would have massive impact on Brazilian energy security

(Campbell & Block, ES&T, 2010)

(Campbell et al., In Prep)

(McKinsey, 2007)

(Casillas and Kammen, Science, 2010)

(McKuin & Campbell, In Prep)

(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004)

Role in stratosphere (Crutzen, 1976)A novel tracer of carbon

sequestration?

CO2 COS

Fig. 1. The dominant land fluxes of CO2 are photosynthesis and respiration while OCS uptake is influenced by a process linked to photosynthesis.

(Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350

400

450

500

550

CO

S (ppt)

Year

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350

400

450

500

550

CO

S (ppt)

Year

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350

400

450

500

550

CO

S (ppt)

Year

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000350

400

450

500

550

CO

S (ppt)

Year

a) GPP Growth b) GPP Fixed

(Campbell et al., In Prep)

Rapid growth with or without sustainability basis.

Resources available for a multi-disciplinary approach to bioenergy research and education.

Many opportunities for engaging with industry, policy, and mass media.

NSF/CAREER (Env’l Sustainability Program #0955141)

DOE/Institute for Climatic Change (#050516Z30)

Stanford/Carnegie: Chris Field, Joe Berry, David Lobell

Iowa: Jerry Schnoor, Greg Carmichael

NASA: Stephanie Vay, Randy Kawa

Wonderful Students! Andrew Mckuin, Brandi McKuin, Chi-Chung Tsao, Patrick Wiley, Xianyu Yang

Question: What are the life-cycle GHG emissions of ethanol (g CO2e MJ-1)?

Objective: Team presentations in 30 min (~4 slides)

Materials: http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/ucsc/

Approach: Modify a widely referenced LCA model (Farrell et al., Science, 2006) with updated information Team 1: Crutzen et al. (N2O) Team 2: Plevin et al. (Feedstock location) Team 3: Searchinger et al. (Indirect land-use) Team 4: Fargione et al. (Direct land-use)

209.631.9312 | ecampbell3@ucmerced.edu

(Tilman , 2009)

(Tilman, 2009)

(Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007)

(Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007)

(RAEL)

MORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONMORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSION

(Campbell, et al., In Preparation)

(Campbell et al., In Preparation)

(Fox & Campbell, ES&T, 2010)