Elenin and Earthquakes Pt1 En

8/4/2019 Elenin and Earthquakes Pt1 En

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/elenin-and-earthquakes-pt1-en 1/41

Heads-up in Late September

Last updated： 2011/9/18

COMET ELENIN AND EARTHQUAKES

PART I



INTRODUCTION

• Google returns five million pages and 10,000 YouTube video about Comet Elenin. What’s

so special about this comet?

• We can only provide empirical data of Elenin and mega quakes, but we cannot evaluate

the real threat of Elenin. It could be either a harmless false alarm or an imminent

hazard.

• Errors or suggestions? Tell us please: [email protected]

• Copy, email, and share this document freely. Latest update can be found in

http://sites.google.com/site/elenininfo/

•

Disclaimer: Today’s science cannot predict earthquake accurately. Please follow authoritative earthquake info from the Government.

mailto:[email protected]





mailto:[email protected]



AGENDA

• Past Earthquake Patterns

• Correlation between Elenin and Mega Quakes

• Future Dates That Elenin May Influence Earth

• How to Prepare

• FAQ



PAST EARTHQUAKE PATTERNS



EARTHQUAKES IN1900-2008

• What caused the upward trend in the past decades?

• Elenin is not the only reason, but it’s a piece in the jigsaw puzzle.

(Source)

http://www.thehorizonproject.com/earthquakes.cfm

http://www.thehorizonproject.com/earthquakes.cfm



RICHTER MAGNITUDE SCALE

• Logarithmic scale. One more magnitude means 31.6 times of energy

released.

• M7 releases 30 times more energy than M6


• The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 is M7.7-M8.2


• The 1960 Valdivia Earthquake is M9.5, which is multiple times

stronger than M9. The tsunami reached Japan

Source:

http://www.jimstonefreelance.com/



HISTORIC RECORDS

• Use USGS database to search past earthquakes

• http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/

• Earthquakes around the world between 1973 and Aug 2011

• M8.6+ only happened 4 times. None happened in the thirty years between 1973 and 2003

• 2004/12/26 M9.1

• 2005/03/28 M8.6

• 2010/02/27 M8.8

• 2011/03/11 M9.0

• M8+ 30 times, 0.8 times a year (avg.)

• M7+ 534 times, 1.2 times a month (avg.)

• M6+ 5212 times (until Mar 2011), 12 times a month (avg.)

• M5-6 are very common. They usually happen in sparsely populated areas and are not reported.

• In a global scale, M7 is uncommon and dangerous (once a month). M8 is even rarer (once ayear). M8.6 is epic and may not happen within decades!!

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/





EARTHQUAKES SWARM IN THE RING OF FIRE

AFTER TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE

• Live earthquake map: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

• (Snapshot on Sep 8th) The Pacific Plate is unstable during the past six months.

Small-to-medium earthquakes swarm in California, Alaska, Japan, Indonesia, and

Vanuatu. It’s recommended to check this web page periodically.

http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/






CORRELATION BETWEEN ELENIN AND

MEGA QUAKES



ELENIN’S PHOTO ON SEP 2

(Photographer: John Glossop)



BASIC FACTS OF ELENIN

• Comet Elenin (C/2010 X1) is a long-period comet discovered by Russian astronomer Leonid Elenin in Dec 2010.

• The inclination is only 1.839°, which means the orbit of Elenin is nearly coincident withthe ecliptic plane. Therefore, Sun, Earth, and Elenin can be aligned in a nearly straightline.

•

The perihelion is on Sep 10, 2011 at 0.48 AU from Sun. (1 AU is approx. the mean Earth-Sun distance)

• The eccentricity was larger than 1 when entering inner solar system. In other words,Elenin was not a periodic comet at first.

• Elenin was hit by CME in mid- August. Some astronomers believe it’s disintegrating, whichis quite common among comets. However, Elenin is still visible in early September. We

need to wait until Sep 23 to find out with SOHO image.

• Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1






INCLINATION

The ecliptic

plane



ORBIT OF ELENIN

•

NASA JPL Small Object Browser can show the orbits of known comets• Orbit diagram of Elenin:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C%2F2010%20X1;orb=1;cad=1

• (Java must be installed)

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2010%20X1;orb=1;cad=1






THE LAST THREE ALIGNMENT BETWEEN EARTH,

SUN, AND ELENIN

• You can use NASA JPL page to find previous alignment dates of Elenin, Earth, and Sunon PC.

• Earth-Sun-Elenin angle is tiny but not 0° because Elenin’s inclination is not 0°

日期 Alignment Earth-Sun-Elenin

Angle

Timing Elenin-SunDistance

Earthquake Location

2010/2/27 Elenin-Earth-Sun 7.5° Nearly

perfect

7.03 AU M8.8 (the 7th

greatest in

history)

Chile

2010/9/4 Elenin-Sun-Earth ~180° Nearlyperfect

5.25 AU M7.0 Christchurch,NZ

2011/3/11 Elenin-Earth-Sun 6.4° 4 days

earlier (aligned on

Mar 15)

3.14 AU M9.0 (the 4th

greatest in

history)

Japan



2010/2/27 CHILE EARTHQUAKE, THE 7TH GREATEST IN HISTORY



2010/9/4 EARTHQUAKE IN CHRISTCHURCH



2011/3/11 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE, THE 4TH GREATEST IN HISTORY.

EARTH KNOCKED OFF AXIS 10CM



JUST A COINCIDENCE?

• M7 earthquake happens once a month on average, so the M7 quake in Christchurch in

Sep 2010 might be a coincidence.

• However, only four M8.6+ earthquakes happened in the last forty years. On the last two

occasions when Elenin-Earth-Sun formed a line, M8.8 and M9.0 happened, which were

also the 7th and 4th greatest quakes in history. Could it be a coincidence, too?

• If earthquakes were merely stochastic events, the probability of a M8.6+ quake happening

within a specific week is less than 1/500. Rough estimation of the probability of Chile and

Tohoku mega quakes on Elenin’s alignment is less than 1/250000 or 0.0004%.

(The calculation is not rigorous, just to give you some rough idea.)



HOW TO EXPLAIN IT, THEN?

• Warning: Statistical “correlations” do not guarantee “causalities”. They might be statistical

fallacies or coincidences.

• But it doesn’t imply all unexplained “correlations” are pseudoscience! For example, public health

researches usually focus on discovering statistical correlations. In material science, tons of

phenomenon are too complex to analyze even we know all the underly ing physical laws.

•

A popular and plausible hypothesis is : “Elenin interacts with Sun. It’s observed that comets induce solar activity such as CME and solar flares. Powerful solar activities may

trigger earthquakes then.”

• But no peer-reviewed paper elaborating this theory persuasively

• So Elenin’s correlation with mega quakes could still be a BIG coincidence!

• If Elenin doesn’t disintegrate, we shall know the answer by the end of September



FUTURE DATES THAT ELENIN MAY

INFLUENCE EARTH



FUTURE DATES OF ALIGNMENTS

• Be alerted that Elenin was 7.03 AU and 3.14 AU away from the Sun when Chile and

Tohoku quakes happened. During the next two alignments in Sep and Nov 2011, Eleninwill be much closer to the Sun! Moreover, the Earth-Sun-Elenin angle will be smaller.

• Earthquake does not necessarily happen on the exact alignment date. For example, the

Tohoku Earthquake happened on Mar 11, four days earlier than the alignment date (Mar

15th). The time frames to watch are “one week before and after the following dates”.

• Elenin’s influence will fade out from 2013

Date Alignment Earth-Sun-Elenin

Angle

Elenin-Sun

Distance

Remarks

2011/9/26 ~

2011/9/28

Sun-Elenin-Earth 5.5° (Sep 26th) 0.61 AU Elenin very close to Sun

2011/11/23 Elenin-Earth-Sun 5.9° 1.58 AU Around Thanksgiving (U.S.)

2012/6/18 Elenin-Sun-Earth ~180° 4.29 AU No previous mega quake

under this alignment

2012/12/26 Elenin-Earth-Sun 9.7° 6.23 AU Elenin is further away



2011/9/26 ELENIN IS IN BETWEEN EARTH AND SUN



2011/11/23 ELENIN IS FURTHER, BUT STILL CLOSER

THAN ON MAR 11



2012/6/18



2012/12/26 MAYBE THE LAST INFLUENCE FROM

ELENIN



OTHER RELEVANT DATES: 2011/11/1 ~ 2011/11/9

• Earth will pass Elenin’s tail on Nov 1~7. When Earth moves through the meteoroid stream

left from the passage of Elenin, meteor shower may occur.

• Meteor shower is usually due to earth passing trails of comets. For example, the Leonids

is caused by Comet Tempel-Tuttle.

• What’s different this time is Elenin has very small inclination. Elenin’s orbit is nearly

coincident with the ecliptic plane, which is uncommon among comets.

• The last low-inclination comet passing by was Comet Lulin , but its orbit didn’t intersect

with Earth’s orbit.

• On Nov 8-9, another asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass between Earth and Moon. The closest

approach to Earth and the Moon will be 0.0022 AU and 0.0016 AU respectively.

• We cannot judge whether early November will be dangerous. This info is for reference.



2011/11/1~11/7 ELENIN PASSING ELENIN’S TAIL. METEOR SHOWER MAY

APPEAR



HOW TO PREPARE



WORST-CASE SCENARIO

• We cannot predict whether, when, and where Elenin will cause earthquakes!

• Although earthquakes are formidable, the damage is typically restricted to local area. Other possible damage from Elenin include:

• Tsunami

1. Wide-area damage

2. Tsunami can destroy infrastructures such as ports, nuclear and thermal power plants, oil refineries and wells.

If energy and transportation are disrupted in big agricultural or manufacturer exporters,chain effects may impact global price level and people in poor countries!

• Volcanoes – they are active in 2011

• Solar storms – disruption in communication, satellites, and electrical grids

• On Sep 9 (one day before Elenin’s perihelion), mass blackout hit California, Arizona, and Mexico.

The official story is artificial mistakes, but the timing coincides with earlier X-class solar flares• Meteorites – when Earth pass Elenin’s orbit

in early November

(X-class solar flares

and Elenin’s positions)

http://kenmcclellan.net/blog/cosmic-lightning/










DON’T PANIC. OBSERVE FIRST!

• (A) Observe if Elenin will disintegrate

• Until the date of writing (Sep 15), there is no reliable proof of Elenin being disintegrated.

• If Elenin does disintegrate, you can Google “Elenin Disintegrated” to find related onlinearticles. We may need to wait until Sep 23 to find out with SOHO image.

• But it doesn’t mean Elenin will become harmless. Assume Elenin interacts withthe Sun with electromagnetic force. Even if Elenin breaks up, the charged debris will

still follow the same orbit. Some net electric charge may be neutralized but won’t totally disappear

• (B) Observe the Sun

• We guess Elenin influences the Earth indirectly through the Sun, so the Sun may showearly signs before earthquakes actually happen.

• Two days before the Tohoku Earthquake, NOAA D-Rap forecast of ionosphere shows rare

abnormal level• http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png

• It’s highly recommended to check this web page periodically near the Elenin’salignment dates!

• (C) Make Preparations

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png





D-RAP AT NORMAL LEVEL

• (Screenshot on 2011/9/4) The level is normal but above average level (solar activity is

fiercer recently). This graph shows all black most of the time. When the Sun is active, it

may show red color near the North and South Poles, but mega quakes do not necessarily

occur at this level.

2011-09-04 Normal but slightly higher

2011-06-08 The Sun was active, but no mega quake



ABNORMAL D-RAP LEVEL BEFORE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE (I)

• On Mar 9, Earth-directed X-class solar flare occurred

• Even part of the equator showed red color (this is really rare)



ABNORMAL D-RAP LEVEL BEFORE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE (II)

• On Mar 10, the influence of Sun faded. Mega quake happened on the next day.



MAKE PREPARATIONS

Be alerted if D-Rap shows abnormal!

• Following advices from the Government (US: http://www.ready.gov/)

• If you live near a seismic zone

• Get a Japanese-style earthquake go bag

• Store food and water at home

• Avoid unnecessary travel – hard to react in unfamiliar places, and solar storms may disrupt

traffic plans• Stay away from the coastal areas

• High Tsunami hazard?

• Low-elevation coastal areas, no mountains in between the cities and the sea.

• Tsunami also depends on the seabed formation, and not all coastal areas are vulnerable.Geology is a highly specialized subject. Please consult the authority.

• Fill the tank. Plan routes to high places with less traffic jams. Pay attention totsunami warning systems.

• US NOAA Tsunami Info: http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/prepare.html

• Be ready mentally - Hope for the best and prepare for the worst!

(Earthquake go bag)

http://www.ready.gov/

http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/prepare.html

http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/prepare.html






USE GOOGLE EARTH TO CHECK ELEVATION

• Use Google Earth to find out the sea level around the globe

• Ex: In San Francisco, the elevation of coastal areas is around 10 m. There are no

mountains in between the city and the sea. Mt. Sutro is 200 m above the sea level.



SEISMIC ZONE IN THE US

• The following USGS map shows seismic hazard in the US

• Remark: We try not to discuss rumors and conspiracies in this document, but there are

too many rumors about the New Madrid Fault Line (including the areas along the

Mississippi River) on the internet. Please do some Google search if you live near these

areas.



FAQ



FAQ (I)

• Q: Will Elenin eclipse the Sun for three days or end the world in 2012?

• (By Elenin only) highly unlikely

• Q: Some people say Elenin is an UFO fleet?

• The main purpose of such news report is to discredit all theories about Elenin

• Q: Is Elenin Nibiru or Planet X?

• No. We are not aware of any public information proving where Nibiru / Planet X is.

But the features of Elenin (such as orbit and period) do not match the legend

• We believe Nibiru may exist according to some sources, but we don’t know when it

will appear. Maybe soon, maybe many years later.

• Q: Will Elenin crash into the Earth?

• No. They are far apart, but Elenin may bring meteorites to the Earth in early

November. Moreover, asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass between Earth and Moon on Nov

8-9.



FAQ (II)

• Q: What’s Elenin’s mass?

• No official data is available. Some people believe Elenin has tiny mass by observing a

meteorite passing by it (Source). But the observation is not reproduced and verified byothers.

• Q: Experts say comets are too small to impact Earth and Sun?

• With a pair of protons, electromagnetic interaction is near forty magnitudes stronger than gravitational force. (more than one trillion trillion trillion times stronger!)

•

Because planets are electrically neutral, gravitational force alone decides the orbits of planets. EM force is not involved.

• Science today has not fully understood comets, which may not be electrically neutral.If Elenin does origin from the Oort Cloud, and pass thousands of AU before enteringthe inner solar system, it may be charged.

• [Case Study] Comet NEAT near the Sun in 2003 (details are omitted)

• Comparing the mass of a comet and the Sun is like comparing an ant and amountain. How do we explain a small ant influenced a mountain if consideringgravitation only?

(When Comet NEAT

approached Sun in 2003.

Source: Thunderbolt.info)

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1500742/pg1

http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2006/arch06/060425cometcme.htm

http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2006/arch06/060425cometcme.htm

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1500742/pg1



FAQ (III)

• Q: There are so many comets. Why don’t them cause earthquakes?

• Firstly, we don’t know the mass of Elenin

• Even if Elenin has tiny mass, it is still an unique comet: long-period, perihelion distanceless than 1 AU, small inclination. There is no similar comet in the past 100 years

• Moreover, hydrogen cyanide (HCN) is found in Elenin. Many (but not all) comets haveHCN. HCN is a good dielectric and may increase the capacitance of Comet Elenin.

•

There are around forty significant long-period and non-periodic comets in the past 100years. We only know Comet Elenin, Comet Lulin, and C/1980 E1 have inclination less than5°

• However, Comet Lulin has perihelion distance more than 1 AU and doesn’t comprisehydrogen cyanide. C/1980 E1 is even further away from the Sun.

• Q: I don’t believe it. Why don’t the news media report it?

• We don’t discuss conspiracy theories here, or we can list more “coincidences”.

• For example, if you search right keywords in Google, you may find dozens of importantconferences/symposiums from diverse domains will be held at one of the safest cities inthe US all in late September.



REFERENCES

• Photos of Elenin: http://www.aerith.net/comet/catalog/2010X1/pictures.html

• Leonid Elenin on possible disintegration of Elenin:

http://spaceobs.org/en/2011/09/03/comet-elenin-the-final-prospect/

• USGS Earthquake Hazards Program: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/

•

New Madrid Seismic Zone: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone • Planet X Townhall – forum of mythical celestial objects: http://planetxtownhall.com/

• Marshall Masters’s video about Elenin (recommended):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GMILqaYX3Y

• Solarham.com - watch solar activities: http://www.solarham.com/

• Thunderbolt.info introduces the “Electric Universe” theory, controversial but maybe

partially correct: http://www.thunderbolts.info/

http://www.aerith.net/comet/catalog/2010X1/pictures.html


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone

http://planetxtownhall.com/


http://www.solarham.com/

http://www.thunderbolts.info/home.htm









http://planetxtownhall.com/



















Documents

Elenin and Earthquakes Pt1 En