Elena Filchuk, Igor Ashik, Vladimir Pavlov

1st stage Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations on the World ocean and the seas of the Arctic ocean, in particular Barents and Norwegian Seas based on the literature sources.

2nd stageCreation of the climatic data base by sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters a basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas).

3rd stage Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region; to reveal and to analyze relationships of cause and effect of long-period level oscillations and factors their defining

PLAN OF RESEARCH

factor

1. Sea level change as a result of the water characteristics changes (steric change): density, salinity, temperature

2. Ocean volume change : a) with impressments of the water to ice sheets formation of

theAntarctica and Greenland b) as a result of the ice sheets melting of the Antarctica and

Greenland

3. water rotation change as a result of climatic oscillation (runoff ,subterranean waters, evaporation, precipitations)

4. Sea level change as a result of the atmosphere pressure effect and the wind

5. Isostatic movements: a) glacioisostasy b) hydroisostasy c) sediment-isostasy

6. Sediment accumulation on the ocean floor

7. Oscillatory tectonic movement of the land: a) cutting b) geosynclinal c) seismic disturbance

8. Deformation of geoid

9. Speed of the rotation the Earth change

10.Water entry from mantle

11. Longoperiodical tide

parameterData

formatObservation period

Data sourse

atmosphere

pressure Grib, CDF 1920-2004 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

wind Grib, CDF 1920-2004NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, European

National Meteorological Centr(ENMC)

river runoff Txt1881-19991932-1998

Database AARI

North Atlantic Oscillation

Txt1881-2003 http://ns.noaa.gov

salinity Txt 1900-2002consolidated database thermohaline

characteristic Barents Seas, of database AARI

For formation of level data base were used Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and AARI.

Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations

Observed sea level trends

Reykjavik

Stavanger

Torshavn

Bergen

Maloy

Kristiansund

Heimsjo

Alesund

0.55

0.54

0.85

0.66

0.82

0.73

Kjolsdal

Trondheim

Bodo

Rorvik

0.64

Harstad

Hammerfest

Narvik

Tromso

Kabelvag

Linakhamari

Evenskjaer

Honningsvag

Belyi Nos

Poljarnyi

Russkaja Gavan

Murmansk

Pikshuev cape

Malye Karmakuly

Krenkelja

Barentsburg Teriberka

Bugrino

Bolvanskii Nos

Subarea South part of Norwegian

sea

Subarea North part of Norwegian sea

Region of Barents sea

0.73

0.760.83

0.57

0.76

0.72

0.87

0.79

0.77

0.87

0.70

0.78

0.83

0.84

0.88

0.89 0.67

0.84

0.63

0.62 0.73 0.89 0.74

0.73

0.73

0.8

1

0.480.79

0.59

0.75

0.750.75 0.76

0.52

Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation functionand power spectrum for Tromso

52.0 26.0 17.3 13.0 10.4 8.7 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0

years

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

S f (ñì **2/ãî ä )

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

tim e lag (years)-0.30

-0.10

0.10

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

correl

atio

n co

effic

ient

(R

)

Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation functionand power spectrum for Heimsjo

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 230 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

tim e lag (year)-0 .30

-0.10

0.10

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

corr

elat

ion

coef

ficie

nt(R

)

70.035.023.317.514.011.710.0 8.8 7.8 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .5 3 .3 3 .2 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .3 2 .2 2.1 2.1 2.0

years

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Sf (ñì **2/ãî ä )

Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation functionand power spectrum for Barentsburg

52.0 26.0 17.3 13.0 10.4 8.7 7.4 6.5 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0

years

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

S f (ñì **2 /ãî ä )

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 170 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

tim e lag (years)-0 .30

-0.10

0.10

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

correl

atio

n co

effic

ient

(R

)

Correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure was calculated. After analyzing the results it is possible to spike about:

1.Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of station position.

2. For most of stations the central and north parts of Norwegian Sea are regions of location of maximum correlation coefficients between sea level and surface pressure.

Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and

factors their defining.

1. Surface pressure

Correlation between annual sea level on Bergen and Sea level pressure

BERGEN

Correlation between annual sea level on Narvik and Sea level pressure

NARVIK

Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and

factors their defining.

2. WIND1. Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of

station position.

2. Location of maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and wind does not take place at the point maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure .

3. Barentsburg station has 2 regions with approximately equal maximum coefficient correlation (0.709 for 60N, 2.5E and 0.699 for 87N, 20E). However, effective storm surges direction of the wind on this region differs.

4. For most of stations the south part of Norwegian Sea is region of location of maximum coefficient correlation (table 1).

stations correlation coefficient (maximum)

location of correlation coefficient

(maximum)

wind direction

Bergen 0.73 870 N 200 E S-E

Barentsburg1 0.71 600 N 2,50 E S

Barentsburg2 0,699 870 N 200 E E

Heimsjo 0.80 600 N 7.50E S-W

Vardo 0,74 850 N 12.50E N

Narvik 0,84 62,50 N 2.50E S-W

Teriberka 0,78 62,50 N 7.50E S

Poljarnoe 0,79 62,50 N 50 E S-W

Liinkhamari 0,80 62,50 N 12.50E S-W

Kabelvag 0,77 600 N 7.50E S-W

Bodo 0.66 60 N 7.5E S-W

Trondheim 0.677 55.0° N 20.0° E W

NARVIK

BARENCBURG

Stations NAO Sev.Dvina Pechora Stations NAO Sev.DvinaPechora

Reykjavik 0.435 0.082 0.051 Tromso 0.347 0.089 0.200

Bergen 0.545 0.218 0.108 Hammerfest 0.365 0.117 0.364

Maloy 0.445 0.168 0.189 Honningsvag 0.313 -0.055 0.365

Kjolsdal 0.610 0.228 0.269 Vadso 0.121 -0.428 0.430

Alesund 0.360 0.138 0.075 Vardo 0.224 0.199 0.108

Kristiansund 0.355 0.234 0.072 Liinkhamari 0.269 0.004 0.329

Heimsjo 0.579 0.064 0.330 Pikshuev 0.422 0.264 0.490

Trondheim 0.435 0.080 0.349 Murmansk 0.151 0.297 0.302

Rorvik 0.376 0.120 0.316 Poljarnoe 0.513 0.175 0.289

Ny-Alesund 0.373 0.406 --- Teriberka 0.514 0.031 0.249

Barentsburg 0.573 0.021 -0.057 Bugrino 0.006 -0.105 0.198

Bodo 0.454 0.205 0.394 Malye Karmakuly 0.156 -0.097 0.027

Kabelvag 0.424 0.101 0.201 Mys Bolvanski 0.440 0.163 0.298

Andenes 0.508 0.367 0.036 Krenkelja 0.137 0.230 0.403

Evenskjaer 0.702 -0.050 0.247 Belyi Nos 0.114 -0.542 0.098

Hatstad 0.403 0.185 0.177 Russkaja Gavan 0.497 0.161 0.007

Narvik 0.469 0.079 0.312Sev.DvinaPechora

0.10.09

Decadal mean anomalies of the sea level (cm) of Arctic ocean (modeling results)

50s70s

60s 80s

Forecast of sea level changes on Norwegian and Barents seas using water and ice codynamics model (AARI).

CONCLUSIONall work

1) The Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations for World Ocean by the literature sources was carried out.

2) The climatic database for sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters on basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas) have created. The program package has been produced for work with data base. These programs calculate the basic statistics, power spectrum.

3) Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region have carried out. Relationships of cause and effect of long-period levels oscillations and some defining factors (wind, pressure, NAO, river runnof) have been analyzed.