Electric Vehicles Today and Tomorrow

November 6, 2017

Enjoy a cup of coffee!

Please be sure to get a copy of the agenda and bios and sign in for APA CM Credits

We will start promptly at 10:00

Electric Vehicles Today and Tomorrow November 6, 2017 Rob Graff – Manager, Office of Energy and Climate Change Initiatives Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission

Electric Vehicles Today and Tomorrow

Welcome • Logistics

• Breaks • Lunch • APA CM Credit

• Participant Introduction • Name/Organization • What are you hoping to learn today?

• Intro to DVRPC • Context for Today • Overview of Day • Speaker Introduction

Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the bi-s ta te , 9-county Philade lphia region

Home rule region: • 351 municipa lities • land use power res ides with loca l

governments

Is sue a reas : • Transporta tion • Land Use • Economy • Environment

Board makeup: • Governors • Counties and cities • Sta te agencies

About DVRPC

Contextual Overview

• International • Strong Presence in Much of the World • Auto Companies Moving Away from ICE to EVs

• National • Electrify America • National Plug-in Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Analysis • Proposed End of the $7,500 Tax Deduction

• State/Regional Drive Electric PA Coalition NJ BPU NJTPA Interagency Collaboration on AFV Infrastructure

• Philadelphia EV Task Force • Driven by Untenable 2007 Law

Transportation emissions are now the largest source of CO2 emissions in the U.S. EVs are a market-ready, low-carbon technology that can meet fleet needs

The Environmental Motivation for Electric Vehicles

Two main types of EV: All Electric Vehicles & Plug-In Hybrids

EV Technologies

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) – Two Types

In some situations all-electric, some all gasoline, some mix. • Plug-in Prius • Chevy Volt (not Bolt) – a.k.a.

Extended Range EV (EREV) • BMW i3

Advantages: • Long range • Can easily substitute

for a gasoline car • For many drivers,

will provide a 100% electric commute.

Disadvantages: • More complex • Burn gasoline

No gasoline. Battery only. Examples: • Nissan LEAF • Tesla – All models • Chevy Bolt (not Volt) Performance: • Range fine for most

commutes • Challenges for long trips, or

unexpected trips • Range decrease in hot or

cold weather

All Electric Vehicles (AEVs) a.k.a. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)

Three standard types of charging: Level 1, Level 2, and DC Fast Charge • Level 1: home outlet (120V / 1400W) – about what a

powerful hair dryer uses. Adds about 4 miles of range in an hour.

• Level 2: 240V/7700W – like an electric stove with all burners and oven on. Adds 12-24 miles of range in an hour.

• DC Fast Charge: 480+V/50,000 to 120,000W or more. Like a commercial building. Adds 40 to 100 miles in 10 minutes

• Note: Gasoline adds about 250 mile of range per minute.

EV Charging Technologies

DVRPC’s EV Analysis History

2011 “Ready to Roll?” Overview of Challenges and Opportunities for

Alternative Fuel Vehicles in the Delaware Valley 2012 DVRPC Electric Vehicle Transportation Study – Funded by PECO 2013 “Ready to Roll!” – US DOE funded Regional EV Readiness Plan 2015 FHWA funded model of EVs energy and emissions (forthcoming) Key analysis by Adam Beam, DVRPC 2017 NCST-Funded partnership with UC Davis to calibrate model

How Far Do We Drive?

4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Approximate miles using Level 1 charging

15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120

Approximate miles using Level 2 charging

By Mariordo (Mario Roberto Durán Ortiz) (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

PH&EV Research Center launched in 2007 with CA Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) funds for transportation research.

Collaborates closely with California utilities, automakers, regulators, and others on research to develop a sustainable market for plug-in vehicles.

DVRPC has been working with their researchers informally for 4 or 5 years

UC Davis EV Planning Toolbox

Market Tool ACS and LODES* data Shows concentration of vehicles based on user-decided parameters

Workplace Charging Tool Uses Market Tool output and LODES data to determine where

workplace charging most likely to occur Uses three scenarios: Free Work Charging, Work Charging Equal

Cost of Home Charging, Work Charging Double Cost of Home Charging

Project will be to calibrate tools using SE PA counties data Willing to add other geographies to analysis (e.g., rest of PA, NJ)

*Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics

Goals of Work with UC Davis

• Calibrate EV Planning Toolkit to the Greater Philadelphia Region • Where PEV owners will live • Predict workplace charging demand by location • Predict long distance DCFC demand by location • Help optimize locations for publicly available charging

• Overnight • Workplace • DCFC

• Additional Goals • Identify potential electric distribution grid concerns • Inform siting overnight charging infrastructure in urban areas

Projected EV Concentration

Default Parameters 1% of HHs buying new vehicles buy PEVs

Work Charging Same Cost as Home Charging

EV Uptake Issues

• Cost – Decreasing • Range – Increasing • Charging – Where the need for planning lies

Presenters from UC Davis

Tom Turrentine, Ph.D. — Director, The Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis.

Gil Tal, Ph.D. — Research Director, The Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle (PH&EV) Research Center, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis.

Wei Ji — Graduate Student in Transportation Technology and Policy, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis.

Agenda • Morning Session—Electric Vehicles Today

• Global and regional review of the EV market • Supply and demand: Understanding trends in EV cost and buyers’

awareness • Incentives and the EV market • PEV users travel and charging behavior • Public infrastructure needs

• Afternoon Session—Modeling the Future of Electric Vehicles in the DVRPC Region • Predicting PEV ownership locations • Forecasting demand for workplace and other commute related

charging • DC fast charging location modeling