Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids in the Context of the Overall Energy Policy Ronnie Belmans William D’haeseleer K.U.Leuven

Electric Power Flows & Smart GridsElectric Power Flows & Smart Grids in the Context of the Overall Energy Policy

Ronnie Belmans

William D’haeseleer

K.U.Leuven Energy Institute

Overall Energy PolicyOverall Energy Policy

Global Energy ChallengesGlobal Energy Challenges

• Climate Change

Worsening climate change and emissions…

1912 2000


• Climate Change

• Security of Supply

Increasing dependence on imported oil and other fossil fuels…

Jan 01 2006 & 2009


• Climate Change

• Security of Supply

• Rising Energy Costs & Competitiveness

Rising energy costs and falling competitiveness

$ €

EU Energy PolicyEU Energy Policy

Regulation of

Monopolies

Innovation and

Competitiveness

Low Prices

And Efficiency

Primary Energy

Sources

Reliability and

Quality

Capacity

NaturePreservation

ClimateChange

Kyoto andPost-Kyoto

Inte

rnal

Mar

ket

Security of Supply

Environment

Lisbon Agenda

EU 20-20-20 targetsEU 20-20-20 targetsby 2020by 2020

Reduction of greenhouse gases

Energy consumption, Efficiency increase

Share of renewable energy

-20% -20%100%

+20%

8,5%

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Copenhagen has not lived up to the promises

Only “intentional declaration”

to keep T at max 2°C above pre-industrial levels


2°C above pre-industrial levels means:

max 450 ppm CO2-eq in atmosphere

currently at ~ 280 ppm

EU keeps -20% instead of -30%

Greenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas emissionsSectorial

Source: European Environment agency

Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels

IEA WEO 2009

Annual energy related CO2 worldwide emissions

450 ppm scenario


To limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levelTo limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial level


GHG Target:

-20% compared to 1990

-14% compared to 2005

EU ETS-21% compared

to 2005

Non ETS sectors -10% compared to 2005

27 Member State targets, stretching from -20% to +20%

A shared effort between sectors and MS

EU Energy MixEU Energy Mix

-20%

2083 Mt/yr

Gradient: -1.74%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

EU ETSEU ETS a predictable EU-wide cap beyond 2020

Starting point: 1974 Mt in 2013

1720 Mt


Envisioned CO2 reductions possible if:

- all options are considered

- clear policy decisions / right framework / permits!

- drastic increase energy R&D efforts


Need fertile ground for energy revolutionenergy revolution

• EU Strategic Energy Technology plan– 2020 targets– 2050 vision

• Must take decisions now to turn ocean liner


Ref:

Pacala & Socolow

Science 2004

Wedges approach


Ref: Socolow

Wedges approach


IEA WEO 2008 - technologies

450

550


IEA WEO 2009

Part of the answer forClimate Change

“may be”renewable energies

2.2%

9.4%

5%

15.4%

5.8%

17.1%

3.1%

6.9%

8.7%

10.3%

5.2%

2.9%

34.9%

15%

0.9%

4.3%

2.4%

23.3%

7.2%

20.5%

16.5%

16%

6.7%

28.5%

1.3%

38.9%

0%

RES share in 2005

EU-27 efforts in Renewables: RES share in 2005

(*) Figure adjusted byearly starter bonus

BEBGCZ(*)

DK(*)

DEEE(*)

IEELESFRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTRO(*)

SISKFISE(*)

UK

5%

5.3%

1.1%

2.6%

9.1%

6.7%

2.4%

7.4%

5.6%

5.8%

7.2%

6.3%

4.6%

1.6%

2.5%

4.6%

3.2%

4.5%

6.1%

5.2%

2.3%

2%

3.5%

1.8 %

4%

5.6%

8.2%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

2.2%

9.4%

6.1%

17.0%

5.8%

18%

3.1%

6.9%

8.7%

10.3%

5.2%

2.9%

34.9%

15%

0.9%

4.3%

2.4%

23.3%

7.2%

20.5%

17.8%

16%

6.7%

28.5%

1.3%

39.8%

0%

Additional effort based on GDP per capita

RES share in 2005

Flat rateincrease of 5.5%

BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISEUK

EU-27

EU-27 efforts in Renewables: Early starter adjustment & cap

Figures adjusted byearly starter bonusand cap

1.5

0.7

4.7%

7.5%

1.5

49%

13%

16%

13%

30%

18%

25%

16%

18%

20%

23%

17%

13%

42%

23%

11%

13%

14%

34%

15%

31%

24%

25%

14%

38%

15%

10%

RES share in 2020

BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISEUK

EU-27 efforts in Renewables

Renewables & Distributed Generation


CO2 free by 2030?


CO2 free by 2030?

• Simplistic approaches misleading and lead to loss of credibility

• Must think in terms of energy fluxes (“power flows”) not energy “packages”Get energy at right place at right time

• Must optimize full integrated system with full dynamic characteristics


For Electricity system

Energy policy and actions

must be redefined in terms of

power flows and controllability

Dynamic behavior, flexibility of European generation system, globally and locally intelligent networks / smart grids intelligent networks / smart grids …

EU 2050

Energy losses

DOE: Smart Grid System Report, July 2009

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

in U

S

Electricity consumption

Eurelectric: The role of electricity 2007

Importance of Energy Efficiency

Energy Efficiency – CO2 abatement

Source: The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 1

Energy Efficiency: Residential/ Tertiary

Eurelectric: The role of electricity 2007

• Fiscal incentives• Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

Reaching the targets

Reducing barriers

Effective and cost efficient support• RES-E support

• CO2 mitigation (EU ETS)

• Fiscal incentives• Industry standards• Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

Electric Power Flows Electric Power Flows & &

Smart GridsSmart Grids

Ronnie Belmans

Agenda

• Current situation

• Transition towards a SmartGrid

• What value is created?– Helping integration of renewables towards a

CO2-lean society

– Consumer engagement– Long term job growth

42

Ronnie Belmans ([email protected])

Current European power system


43

430 million people served

2602 TWh used (+1.1% 2007)

560 GW installed capacity @ 500€/kW = 280G€

230.000 km HV network @ 0.4M€/km = 90G€

Approx. 5.000.000 km MV+LV network

1500€ investment per EU citizen

Largest man-made system

Data provided by UCTE

2008

New grid challengesOverview

1. Future of energy demand

2. Generation paradigm shift

3. Ageing assets

4. Markets and regulation

44


New grid challenges1. Future of electricity demand

• Rise of consumption at 2% a year– 1250 TWh/year extra by 2030

• Dependence on imported fuels?

• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles?

45


New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm

• Current grid = hierarchical• One-way pipeline

– Source has no realtime info on termination points– Peak demand reserve => inefficient use of grid

46

G GGeneration

Transmission

Distribution Demand

Traditional one-way supply system

Supply



• Increasing wind generation & CHP units in Denmark

47



• Importance of wind forecasting– Wind speed change of 1 m/s = variation of

320MW on a capacity of +-2400MW.– Control systems needed

to avoid excessivebackup capacity

49

“Fresh breeze”means somewhere

between 200 and 1,600 MW



• Offshore wind farm projects in Belgium• Why offshore?

– Higher average wind speed– Less opposition

• Thorntonbank– 27-30km offshore– Planning

• 2007-2009: 6 turbines, totalling 30 MW

• 2009-2011: adding 24 turbines and offshore transformer

• 2012-2013: adding 24 turbines and 2nd 150kV cable

• Bank Zonder Naam– 35km offshore– Construction planned for 2010-2011


50

New grid challenges

• Thorntonbank


51

77

m6

3 m

44

m

18

4 m

New grid challenges

• Costal nodes 150kV– Zeebrugge 477MVA– Slijkens 358MVA– Koksijde 270MVA

• Slijkens – Koksijde– Underground– 33km– 240MVA– May 2006

52


Technical miracles of the 20th century1. Electrification

2. Automobile

3. Airplane

4. Safe and Abundant Water

5. Electronics

6. Radio and Television

7. Agricultural Mechanization

8. Computers

9. Telephone

10. Air Conditioning and Refrigeration

11. Interstate Highways

12. Space Exploration

13. Internet

14. Imaging Technologies

15. Household Appliances

16. Health Technologies

17. Petroleum and Gas Technologies

18. Laser and Fiber Optics

19. Nuclear Technologies

20. High Performance Materials

54(Source: National Academy of Engineering)

Still…new generation paradigms& ageing assets pose a serious challenge…


New grid challenges 3. Ageing assets

• Lagging investments in infrastructure– Rising demand = decreasing safety margins

57

Installation wave in European distribution systems in the 60s & 70s Replacement wave expected with business-as-usual approach Opportunity for new system architecture and operation schemes


New grid challenges 3. Ageing assets• More complex role and

increased responsibilities of network operators for planning and asset management.

• Comprehensive integrated system solutions required from suppliers

• A stable and predictable regulatory framework is required

• Lack of EU-wide standards for integrated asset management and network planning

• Long term vision

58


New grid challenges4. Markets and regulation

• Energy market

• Data + information need > 20G€ investment (based on 100€ per connection)

59

GenCo GenCo

DistCo DistCo

Retail Retail

GenCo

TransCo

DistCo

Retail

REGULATED


Challenges for 2020 and beyond

30GW of solar power in the South

?

Ackgt TechFreep

50GW of wind power in the North ?

Customer Interaction and Intelligent Appliances

New DC Links andInterconnections

Micro- generation in millions of homes ?

plus wind variation / cloud cover /

customer choice…

Smart Grids will be needed to ensure supply

security, connect and operate clean and

sustainable energy, and give value for

money

Smart Grids will be needed to ensure supply

security, connect and operate clean and

sustainable energy, and give value for

money

61Ronnie Belmans ([email protected])

SmartGrids Vision

Central & dispersed sources

Smart materials and power electronics

Central & dispersedintelligence

Seamless integrationof new applications

End user real timeInformation & participation

Multi-directional ‘flows’

62


SmartGrids Vision

a smart metering revolution?a networks perspective

63

“an RTU at every service head”

the portal to demand & micro-gen services

operational visibility of local networks

intelligent demand control in emergencies

local network also the comms channel ?

new services to delight customers….Load-limiting & remote

disconnection

losses management & rewards


SmartGrids Vision

A renewed grid vision?

20202050

… ?

1948

1956

1974 2008

64


SmartGrids Vision

65

DSO’s

SmartGrid

ConsumersGenerators

TSO’s

Actions Actions

Ac

tion

s

ActionsActio

ns

Consumers

sustainable, economic and secure electricity supply

Technology

Standards Small scale generation

Regulations

Market considerations Consumer choice

Reduced environmental impact

Security of supply

Communication

Innovation

Self-healing

Energy Awareness


From passive towards active grids

Integration of decentralized generation?

• Passive grids = Fit and Forget– Fault Detection: power can come from any direction– Power Quality: responsibility?– Voltage Control: responsibility?– Grid Planning: deterministic peak planning, cfr ER P2/5 in UK

Significant grid problems at low levels of decentralized generation

• Active grids– Normal operation

• Curtailment of generation• Local power balance• Coordinated voltage control• Voltage regulators in-line

– Fault situations

67


Public Acceptancemuch more than technology…

70

Smart Grids extend beyond networks and will embrace transport, the built environment, the behaviours and engagement of customers, and will need societal acceptance.

Smart Grids extend beyond networks and will embrace transport, the built environment, the behaviours and engagement of customers, and will need societal acceptance.


Public Acceptancemuch more than technology…

71

Smart Grids will requireSmart Grids will require

Customer Acceptance and Participation in:Customer Acceptance and Participation in:

.…Intelligent Appliances & Demand Response.…Intelligent Appliances & Demand Response

…Micro-generation providing grid services…Micro-generation providing grid services

…Smart metering with 2-way communications…Smart metering with 2-way communications


JobsDirect• In the electricity sector:

– Direct utility SmartGrid– New ESCOs– Contractors

• Installation accelerators• Service providers

– SmartGrid equipment providers

• Cfr KEMA 13-01-2009

72


JobsIndirect

• Technologies dependent on SmartGrids– Renewable energy technology manufacturers– Distributed generation

• CHP heat and electricity demand matching

– PHEV• Charging cheaper when coordinated

– Telecommunication sector

73


Current Status

Global recognition of the benefits towards implementation of Smart Grids for all actors

Widespread rollout of “Smart” is technically possible during the next decade

? Complex and not fully clear

how this evolution is going

to take place in practice

75


Current Status

• Large-scale deployment not yet happened, why not? Some reasons:

– Limited pilot experiences so far– Limited statistical significance of the quantification

of benefits achieved in these experiences– Uncertainties regarding the global investments

• Key challenges for the Smart Grid deployment: – Largely of regulatory nature– To a lesser extent influenced by research and

development issues and by a lack of suitable demonstration pilot projects

76


What are the Elements for Success?Action now!

77

2020 targets

2050 targets

and beyond

REQUIRE application of today’s technologies

REQUIRE development of today’s technologies

REQUIRES research for tomorrow’s technologies

These actions must be put in hand NOW


SmartGrids Vision


78

Documents

Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids in the Context of the Overall Energy Policy Ronnie Belmans William D’haeseleer K.U.Leuven