Electoral Systems & N of Parties

Moser

Basis

Duverger’s hypothesis on single-member plurality elections

Will it hold true in post-communism? Russ, UK, Poland show that plurality can

produce fragmented party systems over time Poland & Hungary conform: Russ &

UK not

Thesis

Electoral system effect mitigated by institutionalization

Explains failure of SMD systems to have expected effects

Weak insts of post-comm a unique chance to test strategic voting

Duverger modified

District magnitude found to be decisiveCox argues SMP may fail to reduce vote for

minor parties IF voters are not short term instrumental info not available on voter intentions belief that a candidate will win many voters who are indifferent on 2nd &

lower choices

Mixed systems

Modelled after the GermanCurbs proliferation?But Russia & Coratia does not compensate

parties vote in direct and PR systems calculated

separately

No post-comm state uses only SMP

Findings

Average n. effective parties = 7.7 2x average for consolidated democracies using

PR

AV level of disproportionality 11.31 More than 2x that for PR systems in

consolidated And higher than av of majoritarian systems

Voters

Rose found independent voters in Russia 78% cf 13% in US and 8% in GB

N parties & level disprop underestimated by actual vote shares because voters and elites make strategic decisions favouring larger parties should increase over time

Evidence?

Poland shows high adaptation 1997 consolidated in electoral blocs so fewer small parties left without rep

Russ & Lith show opposite trend N parties in PR increased from 1 to 2 election

Explanation: institutionalization

Corroboration

Bucking trend in majoritarian systemUK: only 11% candidates nominated by

partiesRUSS: Non-partisan candidates won 48%

vote 1993 and 36% in 1995 52% winners in 1993 were independents 34% winners in 1995 were independents

Conclusion

With extreme party underdevelopmentElectoral system promoting party labels

(PR) will constrain n parties better than SMP if legal threshold is used

Pres election 26/3/2000

Putin sscores 52.5%Zhuganov 29.4% Turnout 68.8%