ELECTIONS MAY 25 2014THE DAY AFTER

Kris Deschouwer

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CONTENT

  1. THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM  2. THE FEDERAL LEVEL  3. THE FLEMISH RESULTS  4. THE EUROPEAN LEVEL

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ELECTORAL SYSTEM

• AT ALL LEVELS A LIST PR SYSTEM• PROVINCIAL DISTRICTS FOR FEDERAL AND

REGIONAL• SEATS BASED ON POPULATION• BRUSSELS SEATS ALSO IN FLEMISH PARLIAMENT

• DISTRICT PER LANGUAGE GROUP FOR EUROPE• SEATS BASED ON POPULATION AND POLITICAL AGREEMENT

(12 + 8 + 1)

• D’HONDT DIVISORS TO DISTRIBUTE SEATS• 5% THRESHOLD PER PROVINCE• VOTING IS COMPULSORY

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ELECTING PERSONS

• MIXED SYSTEM WITH BITH PARTY AND PREFERENCE VOTES

• ELECTIONS BASED ON COMBINATION OF BOTH VOTES (WITH IST VOTES HALF AS IMPORTANT)

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FEDERAL ELECTIONS

• FOR PARTI SOCIALISTE (DI RUPO): EFFECT OF GOVERNING / CHALLENGE OF EXTREME LEFT

• FOR GOVERNING PARTIES IN FLANDERS: WHAT AFTER GOVERNING WITHOUT FLEMISH MAJORITY?

• FOR N-VA: BECOMING LARGE ENOUGH TO CHANGE COALITION

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RESULTS IN FLANDERS

  2014 2010N-VA 32,7 28,2CD&V 18,7 17.6Open VLD 15,5 13,8SP.a 14,1 15.0Groen 8,5 7,1VB 5,9 12,6PvdA 2,8 1,3LDD 0,7 3,7     

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RESULTS IN WALLONIA AND BRUSSELS

  2014 2010

PS 31,0 35,9

MR 25,5 25,0

cdH 13,2 14,4

Ecolo 8,7 12,6

PTB 5,2 1,6

FDF 4,8  

PP 4,0 3,4

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SEATS IN FEDERAL HOUSE

N-VA 34 PS 25CD&V 18 MR 19

Open VLD 14 cdH 8SP.a 12 Ecolo 6

Groen 6 FDF 2VB 3 PTB 2    PP 1 

 (87)   (63)

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REGIONAL LEVEL

• OUTGOING COALITION BUILT IN 2009 WITH CD&V, SP.a AND N-VA (AS THEN JUNIOR PARTNER)• OUTGOING PM PEETERS KEEN

ON KEEPING HIS POSITION• EXPECTATION OF STRONG GAINS

FOR N-VA

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FLEMISH PARLIAMENT

  2014 2010

N-VA 31,9 13,1

CD&V 20,5 22,9

Open VLD 14,2 15,0

SP.a 14,0 15,3

Groen 8,7 6,8

VB 5,9 15,3

LDD  -- 7,6

UF 0,8 1,2

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VOTES FLEMISH PARLIAMENT

  FLEM FED

N-VA 31,9 32,7

CD&V 20,5 18,7

Open VLD 14,2 15,5

SP.a 14,0 14,1

Groen 8,7 8,5

VB 5,9 5,9

 LDD  -- 2,8

UF 0,8

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SEATS FLEMISH PARLIAMENT

N-VA 43 70

CD&V 2763Open VLD 19

SP.a 18

Groen 10

VB 6

UF 1

(124)

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TREND: REGIONALISM

1978 1981 1985 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2004 2007 2009 2010 20140

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Regionalism

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DIFFERENCE FL - WALL

1946

1949

1950

1954

1958

1961

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1978

1981

1985

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2010

2014

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

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EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

  LIMITED IMPORTANCE IN CAMPAIGN– OTHER LEVELS MORE SALIENT– NO STRONG EUROSCEPTICISM

  INTERESTING: VERHOFSTADT AS ‘SPITZENKANDIDAT’

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EP : FLEMISH CONSTITUENCY

  FED REG 2014 2009N-VA 32,7 31,9 26,8 9,9CD&V 18,7 20,5 20,0 23,3Open VLD 15,5 14,2 20,4 20,6SP.a 14,1 14,0 13,2 13,2Groen 8,5 8,7 10,5 7,9VB 5,9 5,9 6,8 15,9LDD 0,7  -- -- 7,3

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EP : FRANCOPHONE VOTES

  FED REG 2014 2009PS 31,0  31,0 29,3 29,1MR 25,5 26,6  27,0 26,1cdH 13,2  15,1 11,4 13,3Ecolo 8,7  8,5 11,7 22,9FDF 4,8 2,55  3,4  PTB 5,2 5;8  5,5  PP 4,0  4,9 6,0  

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EP: SEATS

N-VA 4 PS 3 CSP 1CD&V 2 MR 3Open VLD

3 cdH 1

SP.a 1 Ecolo 1Groen 1

VB 1(12) (8) (1)

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SOURCES

  ALL RESULTS CAN BE FOUND AT  http://

polling2014.belgium.be/en/index.html