Elections and Elections and CampaignsCampaigns

Campaigns: Then and Campaigns: Then and Now Now

Parties are less importantParties are less important Media, polling, and money are more Media, polling, and money are more

importantimportant People are hired to perform campaign People are hired to perform campaign

taskstasks Media consultantsMedia consultants Direct mail firmsDirect mail firms Polling firmsPolling firms Political technology firmsPolitical technology firms

Campaigns: Then and Campaigns: Then and NowNow

Today’s candidates spend the most on mediaToday’s candidates spend the most on media 2004: presidential and congressional candidates 2004: presidential and congressional candidates

spent a combined $1.2 billion on mediaspent a combined $1.2 billion on media Plurality of political ads were designed to appeal to Plurality of political ads were designed to appeal to

voters’ fears (impending war, losing a job, etc.)voters’ fears (impending war, losing a job, etc.)

Federal Campaign Federal Campaign Spending: Where the Spending: Where the

Money GoesMoney Goes 2003-2004 Election Cycle Spending2003-2004 Election Cycle Spending

Introduction to Presidential Introduction to Presidential and Congressional and Congressional

CampaignsCampaigns Two phases: getting nominated and getting electedTwo phases: getting nominated and getting elected Getting nominatedGetting nominated

Getting a name on the ballotGetting a name on the ballot An individual effort (versus organizational effort in Europe)An individual effort (versus organizational effort in Europe) Parties play a minor role (compared with Europe)Parties play a minor role (compared with Europe) Parties used to play a major roleParties used to play a major role

Major differences Major differences Presidential races are more competitive.Presidential races are more competitive.

House races have lately been one-sided for Democrats.House races have lately been one-sided for Democrats. Presidential winner rarely gets more than 55 percent of votePresidential winner rarely gets more than 55 percent of vote Most House incumbents are reelected (more than 90 percent)Most House incumbents are reelected (more than 90 percent)

Fewer people vote in congressional electionsFewer people vote in congressional elections Unless election coincides with presidential electionUnless election coincides with presidential election Gives greater importance to partisan voters (party regulars)Gives greater importance to partisan voters (party regulars)

Congressional incumbents can service their Congressional incumbents can service their constituents.constituents.

Can take credit for governmental grants, programs, and so forthCan take credit for governmental grants, programs, and so forth President can't: power is not localPresident can't: power is not local

Congressional candidates can duck responsibility.Congressional candidates can duck responsibility. "I didn't do it; the people in Washington did!""I didn't do it; the people in Washington did!" President is stuck with blamePresident is stuck with blame But local candidates can suffer when their leader's economic But local candidates can suffer when their leader's economic

policies failpolicies fail Benefit of presidential coattails has declinedBenefit of presidential coattails has declined

Congressional elections have become largely independentCongressional elections have become largely independent Reduces meaning (and importance) of partyReduces meaning (and importance) of party

Running for president Running for president Getting mentionedGetting mentioned

Using reporters, trips, speeches, and name recognitionUsing reporters, trips, speeches, and name recognition Sponsoring legislation, governing large stateSponsoring legislation, governing large state

Setting aside time to runSetting aside time to run Reagan: six yearsReagan: six years May have to resign from office firstMay have to resign from office first

MoneyMoney Individuals can give $1,000, political action committees (PACs) Individuals can give $1,000, political action committees (PACs)

$5,000$5,000 Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states to qualify for Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states to qualify for

matching grants to pay for primarymatching grants to pay for primary OrganizationOrganization

Need a large (paid) staffNeed a large (paid) staff Need volunteersNeed volunteers Need advisers on issues: position papersNeed advisers on issues: position papers

Strategy and themesStrategy and themes Incumbent versus challenger: defend or attack?Incumbent versus challenger: defend or attack? Setting the tone (positive or negative)Setting the tone (positive or negative) Developing a theme: trust, confidence, and so onDeveloping a theme: trust, confidence, and so on Judging the timingJudging the timing Choosing a target voter: who's the audience?Choosing a target voter: who's the audience?

Getting elected to Congress Getting elected to Congress

Malapportionment and gerrymandering.Malapportionment and gerrymandering. Establishing the size of the HouseEstablishing the size of the House

Getting elected to Getting elected to CongressCongress

Winning the primaryWinning the primary Ballot proceduresBallot procedures Developing a personal following for the "party's" Developing a personal following for the "party's"

nominationnomination Incumbent advantageIncumbent advantage

Sophomore surgeSophomore surge Using the perquisites (perqs) of officeUsing the perquisites (perqs) of office Campaigning for / against CongressCampaigning for / against Congress

Impact of the way we elect individuals to Impact of the way we elect individuals to CongressCongress Legislators closely tied to local concernsLegislators closely tied to local concerns Weak party leadershipWeak party leadership

Differences between Differences between primary and general primary and general

campaignscampaigns What works in a general election may not work in a primaryWhat works in a general election may not work in a primary

Different voters, workers, and media attentionDifferent voters, workers, and media attention Must mobilize activists with money and motivation to win nominationMust mobilize activists with money and motivation to win nomination Must play to the politics of activistsMust play to the politics of activists

Iowa caucusesIowa caucuses Held in February of general election yearHeld in February of general election year Candidates must do wellCandidates must do well Winners tend to be "ideologically correct"Winners tend to be "ideologically correct" Most liberal Democrat, most conservative RepublicanMost liberal Democrat, most conservative Republican The caucus system: "musical chairs and fraternity pledge week"The caucus system: "musical chairs and fraternity pledge week"

The balancing actThe balancing act Being conservative (or liberal) enough to get nominatedBeing conservative (or liberal) enough to get nominated Move to center to get electedMove to center to get elected True nationwide in states where activists are more polarized than True nationwide in states where activists are more polarized than

average voteraverage voter The "clothespin vote": neither candidate is appealingThe "clothespin vote": neither candidate is appealing

Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than the Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than the average voteraverage voterExample: McGovern in 1972Example: McGovern in 1972

Two kinds of campaign Two kinds of campaign issues issues

Position issuesPosition issues Valence issuesValence issues

Television, debates, and Television, debates, and direct mail direct mail Paid advertising (spots)Paid advertising (spots)

Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome: spots tend to cancel each Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome: spots tend to cancel each other outother out

Most voters rely on many sources of information.Most voters rely on many sources of information. News broadcasts (visuals)News broadcasts (visuals)

Cost littleCost little May have greater credibility with votersMay have greater credibility with voters Rely on having TV camera crew aroundRely on having TV camera crew around May be less informative than spotsMay be less informative than spots

DebatesDebates Usually an advantage only to the challengerUsually an advantage only to the challenger Reagan in 1980: reassured votersReagan in 1980: reassured voters Primary debates: the "dating game" in 1988Primary debates: the "dating game" in 1988

Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debatesRisk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates Ford and Poland, Carter and lust, Reagan and treesFord and Poland, Carter and lust, Reagan and trees Forces candidates to rely on stock speechesForces candidates to rely on stock speeches Sell yourself, not your ideasSell yourself, not your ideas

Free television time to major presidential candidates in 1996Free television time to major presidential candidates in 1996 The computerThe computer

Makes direct mail campaigns possibleMakes direct mail campaigns possible Allows candidates to address specific votersAllows candidates to address specific voters Creates importance of mailing listsCreates importance of mailing lists

The gap between running a campaign and running the governmentThe gap between running a campaign and running the government Party leaders had to worry about reelectionParty leaders had to worry about reelection Today's political consultants don'tToday's political consultants don't

MoneyMoneyHow important is it?How important is it?

"Money is the "Money is the mother's milk of mother's milk of politics."politics."

Presidential Presidential candidates spent candidates spent $286 million in $286 million in 1992; up from $177 1992; up from $177 million in 1988million in 1988

Are candidates Are candidates being "sold" like being "sold" like soap? Answer is soap? Answer is not so obviousnot so obvious

The sources of campaign The sources of campaign money money

Presidential primaries: part private, part public Presidential primaries: part private, part public moneymoney

Federal matching fundsFederal matching funds Only match small donors: less than $250; Only match small donors: less than $250;

$5,000 in twenty states$5,000 in twenty states Gives incentive to raise money from small Gives incentive to raise money from small

donorsdonors Government also gives lump-sum grants to Government also gives lump-sum grants to

parties to cover conventionsparties to cover conventions Presidential general elections: all public money Presidential general elections: all public money

Congressional elections: all Congressional elections: all private money private money

From individuals, PACs, and partiesFrom individuals, PACs, and parties Most from individual small donors ($100 Most from individual small donors ($100

to $200 a person)to $200 a person) $1,000 maximum for individual donors$1,000 maximum for individual donors Benefit performances by rock stars, etc.Benefit performances by rock stars, etc. $5,000 limit from PACs$5,000 limit from PACs But most PACs give only a few hundred But most PACs give only a few hundred

dollarsdollars Tremendous PAC advantage to Tremendous PAC advantage to

incumbents: backing the winnerincumbents: backing the winner Challengers have to pay their own way; Challengers have to pay their own way;

only one-sixth from PACsonly one-sixth from PACs

Campaign finance rules Campaign finance rules Watergate Watergate

Dubious and illegal money raising schemesDubious and illegal money raising schemes Democrats and Republicans benefited from unenforceable laws.Democrats and Republicans benefited from unenforceable laws. Nixon's resignation and a new campaign finance lawNixon's resignation and a new campaign finance law

Reform lawReform law Set limit on individual donations ($1,000 per election)Set limit on individual donations ($1,000 per election) Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donations, but allowed them Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donations, but allowed them

to raise money through PACsto raise money through PACs Set limit on PAC donations ($5,000 per election to individuals, Set limit on PAC donations ($5,000 per election to individuals,

$15,000 per year to a party)$15,000 per year to a party) Federal tax money made available for primaries and general Federal tax money made available for primaries and general

election campaigns. election campaigns. Impact of the lawImpact of the law

Increase in money spent on electionsIncrease in money spent on elections Increase in PAC spendingIncrease in PAC spending Additional problems: independent expenditures and soft moneyAdditional problems: independent expenditures and soft money

Campaign finance reformCampaign finance reform Reforms can have unintended consequencesReforms can have unintended consequences Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002

Ban on soft moneyBan on soft money Increase on individual contributions (to $2,000 per candidate per Increase on individual contributions (to $2,000 per candidate per

election)election) Restrictions on independent expenditures Restrictions on independent expenditures

Money and winning Money and winning During peacetime, presidential elections During peacetime, presidential elections

usually decided by three things:usually decided by three things: Political party affiliationPolitical party affiliation State of the economyState of the economy Character of candidatesCharacter of candidates

Money makes a difference in congressional Money makes a difference in congressional racesraces

Challenger must spend to gain recognitionChallenger must spend to gain recognition Jacobson: big-spending challengers do betterJacobson: big-spending challengers do better Big-spending incumbents also do betterBig-spending incumbents also do better

Party, incumbency, and issues also have a Party, incumbency, and issues also have a rolerole

Advantages of incumbencyAdvantages of incumbency Easier to raise moneyEasier to raise money Can provide services for constituencyCan provide services for constituency Can use franked mailingsCan use franked mailings Can get free publicity through legislation and suchCan get free publicity through legislation and such

What decides elections? What decides elections?

Party identification, Party identification, but why don't but why don't Democrats always Democrats always win?win? Democrats less Democrats less

wedded to their partywedded to their party GOP does better GOP does better

among independentsamong independents Republicans have Republicans have

higher turnouthigher turnout

What decides elections?What decides elections? Issues, especially the economyIssues, especially the economy

V. O. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their own V. O. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their own interestsinterests

They know which issues affect them personallyThey know which issues affect them personally They care strongly about emotional issues (abortion, etc.)They care strongly about emotional issues (abortion, etc.)

Prospective votingProspective voting Know the issues and vote for the best candidateKnow the issues and vote for the best candidate Most common among activists and special interest groupsMost common among activists and special interest groups Few voters use prospective voting because it requires Few voters use prospective voting because it requires

information.information. Retrospective votingRetrospective voting

Judge the incumbent's performance and vote accordinglyJudge the incumbent's performance and vote accordingly Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically?Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically? Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, and Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, and

19921992 Usually helps incumbent unless economy has gotten worseUsually helps incumbent unless economy has gotten worse Most elections decided by retrospective votesMost elections decided by retrospective votes Midterm election: voters turn against president's partyMidterm election: voters turn against president's party

What decides elections?What decides elections? The campaignThe campaign

Campaigns do make a differenceCampaigns do make a difference Reawaken voters' partisan loyaltiesReawaken voters' partisan loyalties Let voters see how candidates handle Let voters see how candidates handle

pressurepressure Let voters judge candidates' charactersLet voters judge candidates' characters

Campaigns tend to emphasize themes Campaigns tend to emphasize themes over detailsover details True throughout American historyTrue throughout American history What has changed is the importance of What has changed is the importance of

primary elections and tone of campaignsprimary elections and tone of campaigns Theme campaigns give more influence to Theme campaigns give more influence to

single-issue groupssingle-issue groups

What decides elections?What decides elections? Finding a winning coalitionFinding a winning coalition

Ways of looking at various groupsWays of looking at various groups How How loyalloyal, or percentage voting for party, or percentage voting for party How How important, important, or number voting for partyor number voting for party

Democratic coalitionDemocratic coalition Blacks most loyalBlacks most loyal Jews slipping somewhatJews slipping somewhat Hispanics somewhat mixedHispanics somewhat mixed Catholics, southerners, unionists departing the coalition Catholics, southerners, unionists departing the coalition

latelylately Republican coalitionRepublican coalition

Party of business and professional peopleParty of business and professional people Very loyal, defecting only in 1964Very loyal, defecting only in 1964 Usually wins vote of poor because of retired, elderly Usually wins vote of poor because of retired, elderly

votersvoters Contribution to Democratic coalitionContribution to Democratic coalition

Blacks loyal but small proportionBlacks loyal but small proportion

The Effect of Elections The Effect of Elections on Policy on Policy

Political scientists are interested broad trends in Political scientists are interested broad trends in wining and losingwining and losing

Cynics: public policy remains more or less the Cynics: public policy remains more or less the same no matter which official or party is in officesame no matter which official or party is in office

Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 19451945

Reply: evidence indicates that many American Reply: evidence indicates that many American elections do make great differences in policyelections do make great differences in policy

Why, then, the perception that elections do not Why, then, the perception that elections do not matter? Because change alternates with matter? Because change alternates with consolidation; most elections are only retrospective consolidation; most elections are only retrospective judgmentsjudgments