8/14/2019 ELECTION IN LEBANON; MANDATE FOR OBAMA

1/2

Om Prakash Yadav

omjiyadav@gmail.com

ill the theory of Clash of Civilisations propounded by Samuel P.

Huntington be proved wrong? It largely depends on how does the

Obamas Policy towards Muslim world especially Middle-East, Far-East

and West Asia work. If it is a fiasco then perhaps even the last hope of restoration

of peace in these strife torn areas would fade for few centuries.WThe war ravaged Middle East country Lebanon went to poll after Obamas

famous Cairo Universitys speech and defying the predictions of most of the

opinion polls, 14 March alliance of Saad Hariri, son of late Rafik Hariri has won 71

seats in the just concluded elections. Hezbollah on the other hand could bag only

57 seats paving way for its role as an opposition. Many strategists elucidate this

victory as success of Obama doctrine.

The total number of seat in Lebanon Parliament, the Assemblee Nationale

is 128 and by winning 71 seats, stage is all set for Saad Hariri to become the next

Prime Minister of Lebanon within a couple of days from now. Saad Hariri is

considered close to US and other western powers and is a moderate. His father

Rafik Hariri was killed on 14 February, 2005 allegedly by Syrian govt. Many

including his son, the PM in waiting Saad Hariri feel that Rafiks murder plot was

hatched in Syria and there was some sort of connivance of Syrian government in

this assassination into which investigation is still going on. Both Syria and Iran

wanted Hezbollah to win so that Israel can be haunted. From this angle,

Hezbollahs defeat is seen as lessening of impact of hardliner in the region.

Many experts term this outcome as surprise election result because the

general perception prevailed on the eve of this election was that mandate wouldbe a fractured one, and either it would be a hung Parliament or Hezbollah would

get a thin majority. The apprehension in international community ran high

because victory of Hezbollah which enjoys staunch support from Iran and Syria,

would have stirred the direction of politics in the region in different direction. The

peace process which got a fresh lease of life with Obama Netanyahu is perhaps

the last hope of pressing the reset button. The region can longer afford hostilities

as it has already taken heavy toll both economy and life.

The result was taken by pleasant surprise in many parts of the world. The

question that is coming to everyones mind is that whether this result is an

endorsement of Obamas Middle-East policy or it is simply a transient phase in

political cycle of Lebanon?

Obamas speech is being considered as a milestone in Middle East politics

and one cannot deny the possible role of this speech in the outcome of this result.

Undoubtedly Cairo speech marks the beginning of a tectonic shift in Americas

established stand on Middle East. Obamas repeated utterance on the Two State

Solution has been taken in the Arab world as a major policy change of USA vis-a-

vis Lebanon-Israel. Obama categorically stated in this speech that both Israel and

Palestine has right of peaceful co-existence. He also disapproved of Israels

settlement in Gaza and West Bank which actually sent a wave of applause. It has

undoubtedly perturbed Benjamin Netanyahu because bibi Netanyahu is

considered a hardliner and his accession was generally not liked by most of theArab countries. Even the International community also went pessimist with

1

mailto:omjiyadav@gmail.commailto:omjiyadav@gmail.commailto:omjiyadav@gmail.commailto:omjiyadav@gmail.com

8/14/2019 ELECTION IN LEBANON; MANDATE FOR OBAMA

2/2

Netanyahu becoming PM of Israel. The drift from American stereotype stand on

Israel-Palestine may therefore be a harbinger of peace in the region. Obama has

dared to show that he cares and really wants peace process to succeed. His

speech has generally taken by Arab world with applause mixed with a little bit of

caution pluswait and watch. But, everyone thinks, beginning has been made.

Lebanon has a history of incessant hostilities. It has seen as many wars as

any normal country witness in entire history on its civilization. There was a time

when people across the world called Beirut as a ghost city. Quiet recently

Lebanon witnessed a fierce war with Israel known as July war which continued

from 12th July to 14 August, 2006 in which Hezbollah of Lebanon fought against

Israeli forces. This war left hundreds of civilian dead and thousand injured. This

war razed major part of Lebanon and this country suffered from unprecedented

humanitarian crisis. The scars of this devastation are still unhealed and common

people of this country, like any other citizen, do want peace and political stability

and it seems that Obama has been successful to some extent in instilling some

hopes in the state of despair. It is however premature to say that Obamas one

speech has defused the sense of Anti-Americanism in Arab world.Obama hasmiles to go before he could achieve success in his Middle-East venture. He has to

face the hindrance of Jews lobby in Congress as well as in US administration. The

business community is still dominated by Israelis and they have an indomitable

presence in scientist community also. Nonetheless, a good being has been made

and the results in Lebanon have definitely shown some sort of endorsement of

Obamas gesture.

This election, though took place in a geographically tiny country, but its

political significance would not be confined in its boundary. The ripples of hope

would hopefully reach across the continent and avert the clash of civilisation

which seems imminent. Thus this election though held in Lebanon, is a mandateof Obama.

Within a couple of days from now, the results of Iranian Parliament would

be also declared and if Mamoud Ahmadinejad is defeated and Mir Hussain

Moussavi wins in this election would be another endorsement of Obamas policy

towards Muslim world especially West Asian, Near East and Middle-East. Later is

by and large considered moderate and it is being considered that Moussavi can

reset relations with America. In fact Obamas prestige and Americas future

foreign policy are at stake. If Obama fails in this experiment, his problems at

home is likely to increase because he is already facing resistance and opposition

at home

2