ELEC 694

ELEC 694

PDA’s

and

Alternative Computers

Craig Dos SantosNiels HovenScott [email protected]/11/02

SEC - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 2

Today’s Agenda

Course logistics. Class size Description of projects Schedules

Today’s Topic: PDA’s and Alternative Computers

SEC - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 3

ELEC 694 Enrolment

Registrar lists 24 people Contacted by 25 people Last week 26 people

Need to ensure participation level appropriate for a seminar series.

10 traditional seminar slots handling 20 people

SEC - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 4

Schedule for Fall 2002 (Preliminary)

08/28/02 Introduction and Waves of Computing (Cutler) 09/04/02 Historical Perspective On PC Technology (Cutler) 09/11/02 PDAs and Digital Appliances (Dos Santos / Hoven) 09/18/02 Broadband and Last Mile (Kuzmanovic / Gambiroza) 09/25/02 Cell Phones & 3G (Slockers / Haag) 10/02/02 64-bit processors, AthalonXP vs. P4 (Murphy / Mowry) 10/09/02 Video / Audio Standards (Noel / Murillo) 10/16/02 No Class - Rice midterm recess Wednesday adjustment 10/23/02 Streaming Clients and Infrastructure (Mercado / Khoa) 10/30/02 .Net / XML / UDDI / SOAP (Lu / Liu) 11/06/02 Peripheral Interconnects (Bishop / Black) 11/13/02 Wireless LAN / WAN / PAN (Morcos / Rodriguez-Diaz) 11/20/02 Game Boxes (Koch / Doughty) 11/27/02 Final Projects – Group I 12/04/02 Final Projects – Group II

11/20/02 Final Papers due 11/24/02 Off-site AOL/Time Warner, Interesting Products, Infinity Note that a few of the student presentations have yet to be scheduled. We will

discuss this at the next class

SEC - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 5

Suggested Topics Technologies

Memory Processors Video / Audio Standards

MP3, MP4, WMA Wireless WAN/LAN/PAN Storage SOAP, XML, UDDI .NET / Internet Applications Peripheral interconnects Printing and Displays Broadband / Last mile 64 bit processors

Products PDAs Cell Phones Game Boxes DVR / TiVo DAR / MP3 players Home Routers / Gateways Digital Cameras Speakers / Sound Cards Video Cards Smartcards / Security Automotive / OnStar GPS / Avionics

SEC - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 6

Student Lead Seminars

30 to 45 minutes worth of material that stretches to 45 minutes to 1 hour with discussion.

Will have to cover two topics on a few days due to class size. On other days, we can discuss some new product trends.

SEC - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 7

Seminar Content

Less than 1/3rd of time on history Less than 1/3rd of time on current situation Close to 50% of time on future

Where likely to go Application enabled Implication of rapid improvements Co dependencies and bottlenecks

Most often request from last year was to make seminars more rigorous

SEC - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 8

Seminar Preparation Schedule 3 meetings with students prior to their discussion Students should start preparation 3 weeks prior to their scheduled

seminar First meeting 2 weeks prior to seminar to discuss general outline as

well as suggested readings Second meeting 1 week prior to seminar to review first draft of actual

seminar. Third meeting 1 or 2 days before seminar to make any last minute

changes Slides e-mailed to me no later than 5:00pm on the Tuesday before

Wednesday seminar. Meetings can be held Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays, however

they are individually scheduled to minimize extra trips. If necessary, the final review can be over the phone.

For those students giving a seminar near the end, we can start this process a few weeks earlier so as not to bunch all the work at one time.

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Project Paper

We are creating a topic library of relevant technologies. Students are to prepare white papers of minimum of 20 pages in

length covering a selected topic. Document should be suitable for referencing. Can be in Word format or an HTML document Topic can be the same as seminar topic More than 50% of paper needs to relate to the futures of the

technology including: Where likely to go Application enabled Implication of rapid improvements Co dependencies and bottlenecks

Can be started at any time and are due 11/20/02

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Final Two Seminars

Series of short seminars covering a group of students vision of the future based on covered topics or related topics Can not be the same topic covered earlier 100% future based Should relate convergence of multiple technologies

and present a holistic, systems viewpoint. Extreme positions encouraged

Groups will be of 8 groups of students (approx 3 students per group) and we will cover 4 per class

Talks should be approximately 15 minutes in length with 5 minutes of discussion

Discussion

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Seminar #4 Broadband and the Last Mile

Presented by Aleksandar Kuzmanovic Violeta Gambiroza

Logistics Wednesday, September 18, 2002 10:00 – 11:30 AL 126

Read

1. WSJ Article [read] http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~courtade/elec694/wsj.html

2. Newsweek Article [skim] http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~courtade/elec694/newsweek.html

3. Wired -Broadband Cowboy [skim] http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.01/hendricks.html

4. PC Magazine - Dvorak - The Myth of Broadband [read] http://www.pcmag.com/article/0,2997,s%253D1500%2526a%253D2162,00.asp

5. Got Broadband? You're under attack [read 1st page, skim rest] http://www.extremetech.com/article/0,2299,s%253D1024%2526a%253D1620,00.asp

6. BusinessWeek - Broadband's Next Wave: Wireless? http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2001/nf20010517_453.htm

7. Monetizing the Last Mile http://www.business2.com/articles/web/0,1653,43490,FF.html

Prep for Seminar #5 Cell Phones and 3G (9/25)

Michael Haag Shawn Slockers

Prep for Seminar #6 64 bit processors & AthalonXP vs. P4 (10/2)

Patrick Murphy Anthony Mowry

ELEC 694

Computing on the go: The Future of Personal Digital

Assistants (PDA).

Niels Hoven [email protected]

Craig Dos Santos [email protected]

9/11/02

NH/CDS - 9/11/2002 ELEC 694, Seminar #3 14

History of PDA’s

In the beginning… the Psion 1.8k memory16 character alpha-numeric display

Apple NewtonRoughly 4x8x1’’ (not pocket size)PCMCIA slot and serial port


Palm Inc.

Palm introduces the Pilot 1000 in ’96128K RAM (5000 had 512K), 16Mhz CPU

Palm III is first of Modern Era in ’98 backlit screen, beaming capibility, Flashable ROM Handspring licences Palm OS in ’98

Palm in 1999… expanding… Around 70% of Market worldwide in handhelds Nokia licenses Palm technology


Pocket PC

Debuts April 19th, 2000 on the HP Jornada 54x series iPaq debuts summer, 2000. Units sell for as much as $1000 on

Ebay HP continues to increase production throughout the first year up

to 400,000 units a month. Microsoft ships 1 million units in the first year


PCMag’s Perfect PDA

From Dec. 2001 Uses current

technologies Answered by

new Toshiba Exc. LCD,

keyboard,


Current PDA’s

Toshiba e740 $500 Built in 802.11b 64 MB RAM 32 MB Flash ROM 6.7 ounces SDIO and CF slots


Current PDA’s

Compaq IPaq $650 - $750 Built in Bluetooth

(cell phone enabled) 64 MB RAM 48 MB Flash ROM 400 Mhz SD slot


Newest Palm

$30016 MB RAMExpansion SlotColor screen4.9 Ounces(similar model available for same price, with no color,but with wireless plan)


iPod

$500 10 GB 4200 rpm drive 32 MB DRAM 32 MB ROM 133 MHz Monochrome display


Springboard Modules

Raycom Personal Massager

JetLog 24x7 PowerNapping Module

Magellan GPS Companion


Market Share of handhelds


Palm versus Pocket PC

In the last few years, Pocket PC’s have taken some of Palms market share.Pocket PC’s are more expensive but offer greater flexibility. Underlying question:

Has Microsoft overshot the needs of the average consumer?


The battle of simple vs. robust

Palm remains simple in its design Pocket PC believes this is a small computer Who is right? Will the masses pay extra for

the functionality of a handheld computer? What are the implications of being connected

all the time? Can one company fill both the market for the

full functioned and the simplistic?


Network Externalities…

Added benefit from widespread use Autarky value = value generated by product Synchronization value = additional value from network

Indirect vs. Direct networks Unauthorized software copying

Firms producing similar but incompatible products leads to a natural monopoly

Heterogeneous tastes in consumers can lead to competing networks coexisting


… and the effect on the PDA market

Did Palm already have its shot? When will PDA’s be incorporated by the mass

public? (ie as well as cell phones are now) Will there be a killer app to help reach this

point? What are the network externalities of this

market? Can multiple firms exist?


Cost of Wireless Connectivity

Palm VII: $300 $20/mo + $0.20/Kb over 100Kb, or $40

unlimited Handspring Treo: $350-$500

4000 min, 2MB - $50/mo 4000 min, 20MB - $80/mo Approx $1.70/MB w/phone plan

Pocket PC Phone Edition: $550 Approx $4/MB w/phone plan


Secure wallet

Secure purchases Functionality in retail stores Driver’s license Passport Credit cards Insurance information Business cards Backed up on your home computer


Gaming

Gameboys of the future Portable, networked gaming Current PDAs 400MHz Xbox 700MHz Need cheaper modules Better gaming input interface Appropriate storage media


Voice and video

Memo recorder Voice to text notes

300 MHz Pentium recommended 600 MHz to use effectively

Real time translations Video conferencing

Subtitles on your video conference


XScale vs.Celeron vs. today

Xscale 2nd generation StrongARM Intel and Advanced RISC Machines 500 mW at 400 MHz 7 stage pipeline

Celeron 400 MHz 24 W

Current specs Athlon XP 2600+: 68 W Pentium 3: 10 stage pipeline Pentium 4: 20 stage pipeline


Intel Propaganda

“What happens if a branch prediction is wrong? Absolutely nothing. Remember, most microprocessor chips don’t have any branch prediction at all, so even an incorrect prediction is no worse than what most other microprocessors do all the time. The Intel PXA250 applications processor does its best to prevent this from happening.”


The future of the laptop

PDAs only two years behind laptop 400 MHz, 64MB RAM, 10GB hard drive $700 price tag

PDA Processor RAM Nominal storage

Docking station Hard drive Monitor interface


Necessary Improvements

Improved input devices Handwriting recognition Portable keyboards

Battery capacity Fuel cells Zinc-air disposable packs

Price point ~ $150 for widespread ownership ~ $700 for laptop replacements


PDA pricing

LCD screen 32 MD SDRAM Processor Hard drive or other storage medium

Discussion

Documents

ELEC 694