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This publication is the sole responsibility of the author(s). The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position
or opinion of the European Commission.
Project Team ICON / ECORYS:
Address
Project Co-ordinator:
Authors:
With support from:
Supporting team:
Layout:
Cover photo: Fotolia
For any use or reproduction of photos which are not under European Union copyright, permission must be sought d irectly from the copyright holder(s).
ICON-INSTITUT Public Sector GmbH
Von-Groote-Str. 28, 50968 Kln, Germany
ECORYS Nederland BV
Watermanweg 44, 3066 GG Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Natalija Ziminiene (ICON-INSTITUT Public Sector GmbH, Germany)
Dr. Martin van der Ende, Kenneth Walsh, Natalija Ziminiene
John McGrath
Ronald van Bekkum, Dennis van Buren, Dovile Minkeviciute, Marjolein Peters,
Atze Verkennis, Jena de Wit
Holger Thoma (ICON-INSTITUT Public Sector GmbH, Germany)
More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu).
Cataloguing data as well as an abstract can be found at the end of this publication.
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2014
ISBN 978-92-79-38238-3
doi: 10.2767/2563
European Union, 2014Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Europe Direct is a service to help you
find answers to your questions aboutthe European Union
(*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access
to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed.
Freephone number (*):
00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11
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Contents
Executive summary................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................... 14
1 Economic context and employment............................................................................................................................................................... 18
1.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
1.2 Background........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
1.3 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 23
2 Vacancy development........................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 242.2 Development of vacancies at the EU and country level............................................................................................................................................. 24
2.3 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
3 Trends in rercruitment demand........................................................................................................................................................................ 29
3.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
3.2 Development of recruitment.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
3.3 Development of contractual arrangements.................................................................................................................................................................... 33
3.4 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
4 Job opportunities for the unemployed........................................................................................................................................................... 40
4.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
4.2 Development of job opportunities......................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
4.3 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
5 Development of occupational recruitment demand................................................................................................................................. 49
5.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
5.2 Developments in hirings according to major occupational groups...................................................................................................................... 49
5.3 Identifying the recent top growth occupations.............................................................................................................................................................. 58
5.4 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 66
6 Trend in demand for selected occupational fields.................................................................................................................... ................. 67
6.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
6.2 Healthcare.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
6.3 Information and communication technologies................................................................................................................................................................ 70
6.4 Engineering........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 74
6.5 Teaching.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 77
6.6 Finance................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 80
6.7 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 83
7 Job skills and education....................................................................................................................................................................................... 84
7.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 84
7.2 Hirings and employees by educational level...................................................................................................................................................................... 84
7.3 Major educational groups and educational levels....................................................................................................................................................... 87
7.4 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 91
8 Contractual arrangements and occupations............................................................................................................................................... 93
8.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 938.2 Hirings starting with a temporary contract...................................................................................................................................................................... 93
8.3 Temporary work agency placements................................................................................................................................................................................... 97
8.4 Hiring for part-time jobs............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 98
8.5 Proportion of recently started jobs..................................................................................................................................................................................... 101
8.6 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 104
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Abbreviations
ALMP Active Labour Market Policy
EC European Commission
EEO European Employment Observatory
EMP Employment
EJMB European Job Mobility Bulletin
EVM European Vacancy Monitor
EVRR European Vacancy and Recruitment Report
EU European Union
EWCO European Working Conditions Survey
ISCO International Standard Classification of Occupations
ISCED International Standard Classification of Education
GDP Gross domestic product
ILO International Labour Organisation
ICT Information and communication technologies
HR Human resources
JVS Job Vacancy Statistics (source - EUROSTAT)
LFS Labour Force Survey (source - EUROSTAT)
NACE Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community
NSO National Statistical Organisation/Office
OECD Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development
ORS Online recruitment services
PES Public Employment Services
PRES Private Employment Services
STW Short-time working
TAW Temporary Agency Work(er)
TWA Temporary Work AgencyQ1, Q2 First quarter of the year, second quarter etc.
UNEMP Unemployment
9 Trends in demand for young staff........................................................................................................... .......................................................... 105
9.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 105
9.2 Youth hirings by major occupational group......................................................................................................................................................................... 105
9.3 Top 25 growth occupations in youth hirings.................................................................................................................................................................... 109
9.4 Youth hiring by educational level........................................................................................................................................................................................... 110
9.5 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 115
10 Development of occupational demand and market profile of Public Employment Services................................................ 116
10.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 116
10.2 General developments in recruitment with PES involvement............................................................................................................................... 116
10.3 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 122
11 Development of occupational demand and market profile of Temporary Work Agencies...................................................... 124
11.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 124
11.2 General developments in recruitment through TWA.................................................................................................................................................. 124
11.3 Conclusions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 129
References.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 131
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7E u r o p e a n V a c a n c y a n d R e c r u i t m e n t R e p o r t
Key findings
a. Vacancies and hirings:
At 218 million, average EU employment in 2012 was2.6 per cent less than in 2008. While employment was
back at pre-crisis levels in eight countries and coinciding
with increased GDP in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Malta
and Sweden, employment continued to all in 2012 in nine
countries and by -5 per cent or more in Greece, Portugal
and Spain.
Recruitment activity (vacancies and hirings) shows onlypartial recovery, with vacancies down -19 per cent and
hirings down -14 per cent on average in 2012 compared
to 2008. However, when compared to their lowest levels
during the crisis (i.e. the third quarter o 2009) vacancies
had risen by 25 per cent by the third quarter o 2013 andhirings had increased by 7 per cent. The total number o
hirings (or 27 EU Members States) in the third quarter
o 2013 was still significant (around 9.6 million) which
compares with the 10.9 million in the same quarter o
2008. Vacancies increased in Sweden alone, but job hirings
increased in 4 EU Member States, while staying the same
in 6 and alling in 16 countries. Growth in hirings was
combined with employment growth in in Hungary (mostly
new jobs in the public sector), in Luxembourg (where the
finance sector recovered well) and in Sweden (with strong
overall development). In contrast, there was a sharp
decline in hirings in the east and south o Europe, with
reductions o -25 per cent or more below pre-crisis levels
in Greece, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Spain and also
in the ar west in Ireland, reflecting significant reductions in
employment in those countries.
Recruitment intensity in terms of vacancy and hiringratesell accordingly, but only rom 2.6 to 2.3 or hirings.
Northern Europe had higher vacancy rates in the post-
recession period and experienced the highest levels of
hiring during the recession.In 2012, the job vacancy rate
was highest in the Nordic countries ollowed by Germanyand confirmed the better economic perormance o these
countries. Hiring opportunities for the unemployed(ratio
o unemployed to hirings) deteriorated in all countries
over the period 2008-2012. The probability o getting a
job was influenced by age and in particular by education.
Executive summaryRecruitment activity in Europe(vacancies and hirings) shows only partial recovery, with vacancies down -19 per cent and
hirings down -14 per cent on average in 2012 compared to 2008. However, when compared to their lowest levels during
the crisis (i.e. the third quarter o 2009) vacancies had risen by 25 per cent by the third quarter o 2013 and hirings had
increased by 7 per cent.
Top growth occupations in employee numbers are mostly high skilled. Sofware and sales proessionals, as well as
personal care workers and nurses in the health services show robust growth in employment.Top growth in hiringsbetween
2011 and 2012 was concentrated in agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers(1.2 million hirings, mostly in the south o
Europe), personal care workers in health servicesand administrative and specialised secretaries(respectively 1.4 and 0.6
million hirings, in particular in northern Europe).
The share of the low educated in hirings is contracting across all major occupational groups, even in elementaryoccupationswhere it ell by our percentage points between 2008 and 2012. This may be an indication o the effects o
declining employment causing more low skilled jobs to be filled by those with medium education or above instead o by the
low skilled.
Between 2008 and 2012 the proportion of hirings with non-standard contracts increased: rom 44 to 46 per cent
or part-time contracts and rom 56 to 59 per cent or temporary contracts. Temporary contracts were more common
in countries with strong employment protection or permanent contracts (Spain, 90 %), student jobs (Sweden, 75 %),
seasonal demands (both Spain and Sweden) and limitations on the duration o temporary work assignments (France,
75 %, particularly in industry). Temporary contracts were ewer in countries with less employment protection or permanent
contracts: Estonia (29 %), Malta and the United Kingdom (both 22 %).
Half of all people hired were below 30 years of agein 2013 and this proportion has been airly consistent since 2008.
The high rate of turnover in youth employmentis the main actor why the relatively high rate o hirings o young people
which is one o the key findings in this report - has not been reflected in a significant reduction in youth unemployment. Low
educated youth were worst affected by the crisis, hiring ell by one third (- 31 %) comparing the second quarter in 2013 with
2008. The proportion o low educated youth hirings in 2012 was relatively high in south Europe (Italy, Malta, Portugal and
Spain - 30 - 40 %), and mostly in low skilled jobs such waiters in restaurants and shop assistants.
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8 E x e c u t i v e s u m m a r y
and replacement jobs in health care are projected to
increase as demand grows from an ageing population in
Europe.
Top growth occupations in both hirings and employeenumbersbetween 2011 and 2012 were concentrated in
agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers (1.2 million
hirings, mostly in the south of Europe), personal care
workers in health services and administrative and
specialised secretaries (respectively 1.4 and 0.6 million
hirings, in particular in northern Europe). The growth of
agriculture, forestry and fishery workersconsisted largely
of seasonal workers, while the combined growth in hirings
and employees for the other two occupations indicate new
job creation.
The general fall in the number of people hiredparticularlyaffected manual occupations craft and related trades
workers and plant and machine operators and
assemblers. The decline reflected the fall in employee
numbers in construction (-17 %) and industry (-10 %),
with employment in construction falling by half in Greece,
Ireland, Lithuania and Spain and by -20 per cent or more in
industry in the same countries. The fall in hirings of skilled
manual workers was particularly sharp in 2009. Hirings
also fell for managers, legislators and senior officials,
but it was less acute and more prolonged.
Occupations where both the numbers of employees andthe numbers of hirings decreased were mostly related
to the construction sector, in particular in the south of
Europe (though less so in Italy) and some east European
countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia and Poland). Where a
fall in employment in construction is less visible in hirings
such as in Ireland and Lithuania, increased job turnover is
a likely explanation. Employee and hiring numbers also fell
significantly among generalist secretaries (in particular in
Belgium), as well as in jobs requiring driving skills (heavy
truck and bus driversmostly in the larger countries and
mobile plant operators).
The largest employee growth occupations forprofessionalsbetween 2011 and 2012 were in the fields
of health, engineering, administration, teaching, ICT, finance
and sales at the EU level. Each of these occupational fields
has specific features with regards to labour demand:
ICT - recruitment difficulties are caused by the lower
numbers of graduates in the west of Europe; health care
regional imbalances due to the labour migration from east
to west; teaching increased demand for staff at tertiary
level due to increase in the participation rate in higher
education insitutions; engineering- recovery from earlier
falls during recession, although with differences betweenspecialisations; and finance- job opportunities for young
workers remained quite favourable even in those countries
with declining employment in this sector.
Hiring prospects for the low educated deteriorated
significantly as the ratio almost doubled (up to 3.5 from
1.9). Hiring prospects declined for all age groups, but
relatively less so for those aged under 30.
Private sector recruitment forming the largest part ofthe labour market responded faster and stronger to the
business cycle than the broad public sector, particularly
in 2009 and 2010. However, after the partial recovery,
faltering growth caused private sector vacancies and
hirings to lag behind those in the public sector which were
not as strongly affected by short-term changes in the
economy.
b. Occupational demand:
Hirings recovered between 2008 and 2012 in three ofnine major occupational groups professionals, service
and sales workersand elementary occupations.While
some of this growth is due to new jobs being created,
increasing job turnover was the main cause of increased
hirings in elementary jobs, in particular in the countries
that were worst affected by the crisis (such as Greece,
Portugal and Spain) or where the crisis was prolonged
(for example, the Netherlands). This does not suggest a
structural change in the skills levels of hirings. In particular,
no skills polarisation is evident from recent developments
in hirings, at least not for non-manual jobs.
The specific occupations with the largest volumes ofhirings in 2012 included a number of medium skilled
services workers such as shop salespersons(3.1 million
hirings, all EU countries), waiters and bartenders (1.9
million, most EU countries except a few in east Europe) and
personal care workers in health services (1.4 million, in
the top 10 of eight countries: Denmark, Finland, Germany,
Ireland, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom).
Other occupations with large volumes of hirings included
various elementary occupations and service and sales
workers. The high volumes of hirings associated with
these occupations reflected their relatively large numbers
in employment and a relatively high incidence of seasonal
work and of job turnover.
The Top 25 occupations for employee growth in theEU between 2011 and 2012 were dominated by those
requiring higher level skills(18 out of 25), 11 of which
were in the professionals category. Those occupational
fields with the highest growth were health, teaching,
engineering and administration. Within the fields the top
three occupations for absolute growth were (in descending
order) software and applications developers and analysts,
personal care workers in health services and sales,marketing and public relations professionals. The demand
for IT specialists cuts across many sectors and is related
to the general economic recovery which would also help
explain the growth in sales and administrative jobs. New
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9E u r o p e a n V a c a n c y a n d R e c r u i t m e n t R e p o r t
demand for IT specialists cuts across many sectors and is
related to the general economic recovery which would also
help explain the growth in sales and administrative jobs.
d. Young jobseekers:
Half of all people hired were younger than 30 yearsoldin 2013 and this proportion has been fairly consistent
since 2008. This reflects a combination of factors; firstly,
the incidence of temporary employment was somewhat
higher among the young employed; secondly, young
workers tend to be strongly represented in occupations
which are characterised by a relatively high incidence of
turnover. Finally, young people tend to change jobs more
often. The high rate of turnover in youth employment
is the main factor why the relatively high rate of hiringsof young people which is one of the key findings in this
report - has not been reflected in a significant reduction in
youth unemployment.
At the same time the ratio of unemployed youngjobseekers to hirings is below that for all age groups,
increasing from 1.2 to 1.7 over the reference period
compared to the rise from 1.8 to 3.1 for all age groups.
Within the EU, hirings of young unemployed fell most in
those countries most affected by the crisis such as Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, but even within those
countries hirings of unemployed adults fell even more.
An analysis of the occupational structure of the youthlabour market shows that the highest numbers and
increasing proportions of young people (including students)
are hired in services and sales followed by elementary
occupations. Youth hirings in general fell sharply in 2012
(compared to 2011) in most countries but with some
exceptions:
- For young professionals, hirings increased in 2012in Austria, Denmark, France, Sweden and the United
Kingdom, mostly in healthcare and ICT.i
- For young clerks, hirings increased in 2012 acrossEurope.
- For youngservice and sales workers, hirings increasedin 2012 in Austria, France and Sweden. Hirings fell in
Greece and Spain, but less so than for other occupational
groups in these countries. Youth hirings increased in
particular for food services (waiters and bartendersand
cooks).
- For young workers in elementary occupationsincreases in hirings in 2012 are mostly attributable to
increasing job turnover, some of which is due to seasonal
work.
Top growth occupations in youth hirings in 2012werein hospitality (waiters and bartenders), clerks (numericalclerks, clerical support workers, client information
workers, general office clerks), in healthcare (personal
i Germany is excluded in this analysis for technical reasons.
c. Education requirements:
Labour market conditions hit the low-educated worstof all, with their employment rate falling the most since
2008 to 45 per cent in 2012, compared to 68 per cent
for the medium educated and 82 per cent for the high
educated. The share of the low educated was higher for
hirings than for employees in every European country
except Malta indicating high labour turnover (26 : 19 % at
EU level) indicating less job stability for the low educated.
In addition, prospects of low educated unemployed, as
measured by the numbers of unemployed compared to
hirings, were worst for the low educated at 4.4 compared
to 1.7 for the high educated and were particularly poor in
2012 in the countries most affected by the crisis (Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain).
The share of the low educated in hirings is contractingacross all major occupational groups, even in
elementary occupationswhere it fell by four percentage
points between 2008 and 2012. This may be an indication
of the effects of declining employment causing more low
skilled jobs to be filled by those with medium education
or above instead of by the low skilled. This is particularly
the case for young jobseekers in the three Baltic countries
and even more so in Portugal. Despite this change, still
a substantial number of low-educated people were hired
into medium skilled jobs largely because of skills supply
limitations.
The 25 occupations with the largest decline inemployees in the EU between 2011 and 2012 were
dominated by jobs requiring low to intermediate skills
(19 out of 25), in particular those requiring manual skills
(12). The occupational fields affected by these falls in
employee numbers were wide-ranging though industry
and construction were the most affected. The top two
occupations were in construction (building frame and
related trades workers and mining and construction
labourers) with third place taken by general office
clerkswhich are found across sectors. Along with related
occupations in the bottom 25 such as other clerical support
workers, tellers, money collectors and related clerks,
keyboard operators and secretaries (general), general
office clerkscontinue to be affected by developments in
IT displacing traditional lower skilled administrative roles.
Correspondingly, the Top 25 occupations for employeegrowth in the EU between 2011 and 2012 were
dominated by those requiring higher education(18 out of
25), 11 of which were in the professionalscategory. Those
occupational fields with the most growth were health,
teaching, engineering and administration. Within the fieldsthe top three occupations for absolute growth were (in
descending order) software and applications developers
and analysts, personal care workers in health servicesand
sales, marketing and public relations professionals. The
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10 E x e c u t i v e s u m m a r y
2008, reflecting structural use of temporary contracts
particularly in Croatia, France, Poland, Spain, Slovenia
and Sweden, and reflecting the seasonal jobs in summer
particularly in the three Baltic countries, Denmark and
Finland.
For plant and machine operators and assemblersand craft and related trades workers. In Estonia,
Denmark, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania, the proportions
of temporary contracts were also very high although
they were in similar proportions to 2008. For France, this
is partly due to the high numbers of TWA workers being
placed for less than one months duration.
For service and sales workers, job turnover wasextremely high in Spain and Sweden despite a lowincidence of TWA work. The proportion of temporary
hirings in this occupational group was around 90 per cent
in both countries.
For clerks, the indicators for job turnover weregenerally about average in 2012, and they decreased
compared to 2008. This was most probably due to an
increasing proportion of public sector hirings where job
turnover is generally less frequent.
For the high skilled jobs, all indicators pointed togenerally low job turnover, in particular for legislators,
senior officials and managers.In this occupational group,
only 9 per cent were hired three months earlier at the most,
reflecting the tendency to fill in positions for legislators,
senior officials and managerswith people already working
in the organisation without recourse to the labour market.
f. Public Employment Services (PES) and Temporary Work
Agencies (TWA):
Employersin those countries covered by the data notifiedmore vacancies to the PES in 2012 compared to 2010,
although the numbers were generally below 2008 levels.
The trend was different in some east European countries
where, for example, the increases in the three Baltic
countries reflected a recovery from sharp falls in 2009,
while falls in vacancy notifications in Cyprus and Slovakia
reflected the persistence of economic difficulties.
The occupations with the highest volume of vacanciesnotified to the PES in the EU countries covered included
shop salespersons and manufacturing labourers.
In the centre and the north of Europe, large numbers of
vacancies for a variety of high-skilled jobs were notified
to the PES, whereas in the south of Europe skilled manual
jobs dominated the notifications.
On average in the EU, both the PES and the TWAs eachhelped fill near ten per cent of all the jobs. This may
underestimate the role of PES in placing jobseekers, since
many often collaborate with other placement agencies.
care workers in health services) and protective service
workers.
Low educated youth were worst affected by the crisis,hiring fell by one third (- 31 %) comparing the second
quarter in 2013 with 2008. This holds also true when
compared to low educated people aged 30 and older.
However, composition of youth hirings varies across Europe.
The proportion of low educated youth hirings in 2012 was
relatively high in south Europe (Italy, Malta, Portugal and
Spain - 30 - 40 %) while the share of medium educated
youth hirings was highest in some east European countries
as well as in Austria and Germany due to the strong
apprenticeship system. The proportion of high educated
youth hirings (excluding students and apprentices) was
highest in Cyprus, Ireland, United Kingdom, Greece andNetherlands (close to 40 % or more).
e. Types of contracts and job turnover:
Between 2008 and 2012 the proportion of hirings withnon-standard contracts increased: from 44 to 46 per
cent for part-time contracts and from 56 to 59 per cent
for temporary contracts.The proportion of hirings through
TWAs initially fell in 2009, but by 2012 it had returned to
the pre-crisis level of 10 per cent. Overall, the proportion
of recent hirings in jobs fell from 26 per cent in 2008 to 23
per cent in 2012, indicating lower job mobility.
The use of temporary contracts depends on factorssuch as employment protection legislation, seasonal
demand and student jobs.On average in the EU, 59 per
cent of hirings in 2012 were on a temporary contract, but
temporary contracts were more common in countries with
strong employment protection for permanent contracts
(Spain, 90 %), student jobs (Sweden, 75 %), seasonal
demands (both Spain and Sweden) and limitations on the
duration of temporary work assignments (France, 75 %,
particularly in industry). Temporary contracts were fewer in
countries with less employment protection for permanent
contracts: Estonia (29 %), Malta and the United Kingdom
(both 22 %).
In 2012 over half of hirings across all occupationalgroups (except legislators and managers) were on
temporary contractsand even over 70 % in elementary
occupationsand skilled agricultural and fishery workers.
These percentages were higher than in 2008. With regards
to part-time hirings the picture is more mixed. While the
share was highest and increasing in services and sales
(up to 48 %) and for elementary occupations(up to 44 %),
hiring on a part-time basis, despite an increase, remained
uncommon for craft and related trades workers, plant andmachine operators, legislators and managers (between
11 and 16 %).
For elementary occupations, all indicators pointed tohigh and increasing job turnover in 2012 compared to
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11E u r o p e a n V a c a n c y a n d R e c r u i t m e n t R e p o r t
its aftermath such as Austria, Sweden and Germany.
Here hirings fell marginally with generally good matches
between educational and job skills levels, in particular for
the medium educated in vocational education and training
(VET) and with low proportions of involuntary temporary
contracts in hirings. A third cluster consists of largely east
European countries such as Hungary, Poland and Slovakia
characterised by a relatively important manufacturing
sector and large proportions of medium educated people
in the population. The high proportions of medium
educated people in this third cluster matches the demand
for medium educated workers in the relatively dominant
manufacturing sector, but labour market shortages in
certain high-skilled professions may occur due to labour
migration to the west of Europe.
Background, scope and limitations
European Vacancy and Recruitment Report (EVRR) 2014 is the
second step forward in a gradual building-up of a more up
to date, dynamic and comprehensive picture of developments
in the European labour market, combining information
from diverse data sources. The first edition of the report
was published in December 2012 as part of the European
Commissions Skills Panorama. It made a significant
contribution to our understanding of how the European labour
market functions.
This second edition of the EVRRis a key component of the
European Commissions endeavour to develop a systematic
labour market monitoring system focusing on changes in
the recruitment demand. The analyses utilise detailed data
on occupations and education qualifications and traces
developments in recruitment over the last five years using
a combination of data on hirings and job vacancies both in
different Member States and for the EU as a whole, or groups
of EU countries according to data availability.
In addition to providing an update on developments in
hirings and vacancies, this second edition also provides an
insight into the implications of vacancies and hirings on
employment. While every vacancy or every hiring represents
a job opportunity for every jobseeker, the filling of such
vacancies or the hiring of jobseekers does not, in general,
result in an increase in total employment. This is because
most entries into employment are either by people who are
changing jobs, or by people who are replacing workers who
have left the labour force through retirement, emigration or
for other reasons.
The report brings together information from a wide range
of European and national sources using Eurostat data,
principally Job Vacancy Statistics (JVS) and the LabourForce Survey (LFS). It also uses data from PES, data from
privately run TWAs and also information from online services.
The Eurostat JVS is the only European source that provides
job vacancy information, but the longer data time series is
available only for a limited number of countries. PES vacancy
Also, the PES has a role training disadvanced jobseekers
who have less access to internet and social media in the
online search for job vacancies, which does not show up in
their share of helping fill vacancies. Lastly, job vacancies
are not only filled by the unemployed but also by people
who were jobseekers moving between jobs and these are
less likely to use the PES.
Both PES and TWA sources helped fill slightly more ofthe jobs requiring low to medium levels of education
(11 % each during 2008-2012).Both those below and
above the age of 30 were generally helped by PES and
TWA to a similar extent. In some countries, such as the
Netherlands and Finland, the proportion of young workers
being placed is higher due to students taking TWA jobs.
For the mainstay of the types of occupations handledby PES, in particular service and sales workers
and elementary occupations, the hirings with PES
involvement increased slightly between 2008 and
2012. Some of these occupations have high turnover,
and employers may have built up a relationship with their
PES to meet these recurring labour needs. The Top 10 -
occupations for PES showed a variety with prevalence of
public sector jobs reaching from refuse workersthrough
general office clerksto regulatory associate government
professionals.
Over the period 2008 to 2012, TWA workers were hiredin significantly increasing numbers in low to medium
skilled occupations such as elementary occupations
and service and sales workers, partly reflecting
increasing job turnover. The Top 10 occupations for TWAs
were dominated by process and operatorjobs in a range
of manufacturing industries, a high proportion of these can
be traced to France.
g. Country group profiles:
The main indicators used in the EVRR to monitor thedevelopments of the labour market in Europe over
2008-2013 such as job vacancies and vacancy rate,
job hirings and hiring rate, number of employees, PES
vacancy inflow, and the level of underemployment
(proportion of temporary and part-time involuntary
contracts) show considerable variation between 28
EU Member States. At the same time, three clusters
of countries can still be defined as having certain
similarities on indicators development within a group.
The first cluster includes countries such as Greece,
Spain, Portugalwhich in all aspects were most affected
by recession. In these countries, young workers relied onelementary jobs such as being a waiter in restaurants
or shop assistants, while prospects for the low educated
were even weaker as the medium educated accepted low
skilled jobs. The second cluster includes those countries
which demonstrated a good resilience to the crisis and
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12 E x e c u t i v e s u m m a r y
low skilled suffer a higher risk o rictional and structural
unemployment. Current trends in labour demand may
aggravate the situation. According to the analyses in this
report, the least educated suffered most rom the decline
in recruitment demand during the recession. Hirings data
or Europe also showed that employers increasingly recruit
medium educated people or occupations where lower skilled
traditionally had a strong oothold, such as elementary
occupations or various occupations in services and sales.
This adds some urgency to the Europe 2020 headline target
to reduce the number o people leaving school early, and it
also gives urgency to the employment target. Furthermore
this finding implies the importance o implementation o
policy initiatives on lielong learning and policies designed to
acilitate transitions, such as the European Youth Guarantee
and the European Alliance or Apprenticeship.
3. The rising share of temporary and part-time contracts
calls for better support to transitions and for policies to
ensure adequate training and career development
Increased labour turnover and the rising share o atypical
contracts requires enhanced support or labour market
transitions or individuals. Public employment services and
vocational training instituions should be better equipped to
support career shifs on increasingly flexible labour markets.
The increase in (involuntary) temporary or part-time
contractual arrangements can adversely affect individual
career development. These trends can result in more labour
segmentation, an increase in the poverty trap and the dilution
o workers rights. In addition, employers may be reluctant
to invest in human resource development and training where
greater number o workers is hired on the basis o short
temporary contracts. This will affect the career prospects o
young workers in particular, but it will also have potentially
wider effects on employers and economies. Thereore, policies
should be developed at European level in cooperation with the
social partners to ensure adequate access to career guidance
and participation in training, as well as social protection or
this growing category o workers.
data is available or 22 o the 28 EU Member States, but it
only covers the vacancies notified to PES. The LFS provides
comprehensive, representative and comparable data or all
EU28 countries on job hirings including by occupation and
education and is thereore used extensively in this report.
While many benefits can be derived rom enhancing the level
o transparency in the European labour market, the project
has had to cope with a number o challenges. First and
oremost, the limited availability o comparable vacancy data
or the whole o Europe, combined with a change in the main
classification used or the analyses o occupations rom the
International Standard Classification o Occupations (ISCO) in
2011 which caused a disruption in the time series. For this
reason, many analyses o changes at the occupational level
are limited to 2011-2012. However, as the use o such ashort period would limit the studys capacity to assess uture
employment growth potential, partially comparable data rom
the period 2008-2012 is also included in the analyses or a
selection o occupational fields.
Conclusions and recommendations for policyresponse
1. Further developing Labour Market Intelligence in the
EU is needed with a focus on skills requirements and the
relationship of recruitment demand and employment
A number o ongoing and more recent European and national
initiatives have the potential to enhance labour market intel-
ligence in the uture. These initiatives may overcome the
challenges which conronted this report. Since 2010 data
delivery or Eurostats Job Vacancy Statistics has been made
compulsory or Member States. Another European initiative,
ESCO (European Classification o Skills/Competences, Occu-
pations and Qualifications), has reached the implementation
stage. The long-term use o this skills-related system should
bridge the persistent gap in analysis o skills requirements
beyond the simple level o analysis according to occupation. A
more in depth exploration in the uture, with a ocus on coun-
try profiles, could contribute to the existing inormation base
o EURES, and it could also contribute to European policies in
employment and education.
2. Hirings trends show the need to better support
transitions on the labour market and to up-skill workers
with low qualifications
The crisis reinorced the trend towards skills upgrading.
Hiring and employment volumes continued to be largest in
the medium range skills segment, while recruitment o highly
educated people was not only more resilient during the
recession, but at the same time it offered more sustainableemployment.
While reinorcing the need or a combined strategy, this report
has identified a particular need or action to help people with
low qualifications. Comprehensive evidence shows that the
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14 I n t r o d u c t i o n
Monitoring labour demand in Europe
As part of its Europe 2020 flagship initiative An Agenda for
New Skills and Jobs, in 2010 the European Commission (EC)
launched the Monitoring Labour Market Developments in
Europe project. The objective of this project is to increase
labour market transparency for all stakeholders who need
information about recent developments on the demandside of the labour market, for example decision-makers in
the fields of education and employment, public and private
employment services including EURES advisers, education and
training providers, career guidance services, and policy and
labour market analysts.
The European Vacancy and Recruitment Report (EVRR) is a
key component of the European Commissions endeavour
to develop a systematic labour market monitoring system
focusing on changes in the recruitment demand for skills using
occupation as a proxy - including employment contractual
arrangements, education qualifications and so forth. The
report also includes an analysis of the activities of recruitment
agencies both public and private as they represent the
interface of labour demand and supply, matching vacancies
with suitable jobseekers in particular segments of the labour
market.
This EVRR 2014 is the second edition of a planned series
of biennial publications providing an analysis of changes
in occupational demand. The first edition of the report
was published in December 2012 as part of the European
Commissions Skills Panorama. This publication is the next
step forward in the gradual build of a more up to date, dynamic
and comprehensive picture of developments in labour demand
across the European labour market by combining information
from a wide variety of data sources. Other elements within this
overall project include two quarterly bulletins, the European
Vacancy Monitor and the European Job Mobility Bulletin. ii
The analysis of recruitment demand does not necessarily
produce similar results as an analysis of employment.
Changing demand in recruitment may impact on employment
trends in a variety of ways. Generally, an increase in vacancies
will be reflected in an increase in employment where new job
creation is in excess of job losses (an expansion in demand).
However, many job openings arise because of the need toreplace workers who have left the labour force as a result of
retirement, emigration or for other reasons. In addition, the
single biggest generator of vacancies is workers changing
ii http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=955
their jobs, either voluntarily or because their employment
contract has come to an end.
While there are many benefits to be derived from enhancing
the level of transparency in the European labour market, the
project faced a number of challenges. The limited availability
of comparable vacancy data for the whole of Europe, together
with a significant change in 2011 in the main classificationused for a breakdown by occupation as provided by the
International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO),
have posed major difficulties which caused a disruption in the
time series. Overall, the project can be considered as a work
in progress, building up more comprehensive information and
a longer-term perspective over time.
Sources of information used
The report brings together information from a range of
European and national sources using Eurostat data - Job
Vacancy Statistics (JVS) and Labour Force Survey (LFS),
data from Public Employment Services (PES) and data from
Temporary Work Agencies (TWA). The analyses include both
European level data and national data:
Eurostat data on job vacancies from the JVS series Eurostat data on employees, job hirings (also called
recent job-finders in other studies) and numbers of
unemployed from the LFS, including the type of contract,
analysis by occupation (using ISCO categories), education
level and field (using International Standard Classification
of Education - ISCED - categories), and the recruitment
channels that were used in recent hiring (PES and TWA)
Job vacancy registration data from national PES includingoccupational analysis of vacancies (ISCO)
Information from TWAs on numbers of agency workers
Where appropriate, results of other international and national
studies are used to provide additional support to the analysis
and interpretation of the data.
Introduction
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or upper secondary short courses (ISCED-97 classification),
which in most countries covers education beyond formal upper
secondary education. However, the share of persons whose
highest attained educational level is beyond upper secondary
but not tertiary is very small. A medium education level is
defined as formal upper secondary education. Those with
medium and high education levels are generally considered
as qualified workers. A low educational level refers to a
primary or lower secondary education.
Time period and measurement of developments
The analyses conducted for this report cover the economic
crisis that started in 2008, and the post-crisis period up to
2013, and they provide an insight into how recruitment
patterns have changed during this time.
To allow for comparability of the data from a variety of
sources, the analyses cover a limited period of time beginning
with the first quarter of 2008 and ending with the third
quarter of 2013 for JVS and LFS data, and the second quarter
of 2013 for the PES data. The only data provided for a longer
period is the Eurociett (the European Confederation of Private
Employment Services) data on TWA agency workers from
1996 (in Chapter 11).
In this report developments are often presented in the
form of indices as this provides a clear illustration of the
scale of change over time, including any volatility due to
seasonal factors. It also has the advantage of facilitating the
comparison of trends between countries where labour force
size differs greatly. To complement the information, absolute
values are also included at the bottom of most of the charts.
Key indicators
The key indicators used in the subsequent chapters of this
report are briefly described below, with additional information
given in the relevant chapters:
Job vacancyiiiand stock of job vacancies
A job vacancy is defined as a paid post (i.e. for employees),
that is newly created, unoccupied, or about to become
vacant:
1. for which the employer is taking active steps and is
prepared to take further steps to find a suitable candidate
from outside the enterprise concerned; and
2. which the employer intends to fill either immediately or
within a specified period of time.
A vacant post that is only open to internal candidates is
not treated as a job vacancy. The number of job vacanciesrefers to the number of vacancies that were still open at
that point in time. In most countries the total number is
iii Eurostat definition, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/labour_market/
job_vacancies
Country coverage, usage ofclassifications, time period andmeasurements
Country coverage and usage of classifications
While LFS data are available for the whole EU28, the JVS and
the PES data are confined to a limited number of countries.
For the period between 2008 and 2012, reliable JVS data are
available on a comparable basis for 15 EU Member States
only. This is largely because the JVS was made a compulsory
requirement for Member States from the first quarter of
2010. This means that for countries such as Austria, Belgium,
Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Croatia, Cyprus, Hungary
and Malta, there is no JVS data for 2008. Additionally, 2008
JVS data for Germany is not used due to a methodologicalchange in late 2009, and JVS data for Italy is not used
because it does not cover the whole economy.
The PES data covers between 13 and 22 countries depending
on the type of analysis required. One of the reasons for
this is the recent change in the ISCO-classification, and the
uneven transition to the new classification of the data in
some countries. For example, the top 5 occupations with the
highest growth or the steepest decline in PES vacancy inflow
in 2012 are identified for 10 countries that used the new
ISCO-08 classification and at the same time for 12 countries
that continued to use the old classification ISCO-88.
While LFS data are generally available for all 28 EU Member
States, availability is limited to a smaller number of countries
for certain types of analysis. This is due to inconsistencies
in classifications over time, or high levels of non-response to
some questions in certain countries making disaggregation
of the data problematic. Changes in hirings in occupational
groups, or by educational field, are generally below the
publication limits at country level, and so they cannot be
presented.
The new ISCO-08 classification introduced a fundamental
break in the LFS data series by occupation, which is most
visible at ISCO 3-digit level, but in some cases also at 2-digit
and 1-digit levels. Not all countries are affected to the same
extent and in the level of the classification in the same way.
This makes it difficult to compare the recent data with pre-
2011 data. For this reason data before and after 2011 are only
compared by major occupational group. Appropriate warnings
are given where changes in 2011 seem attributable to this
change in classification. For a limited number of occupational
fields, developments in the periods 2008-2010 and 2011-
2012 are analysed separately (for example in Chapter 6).
Definitions of education levels
In this study, based on definitions in the LFS, educational levels
are determined by the highest level that was successfully
completed by the respondent. A high education level is
defined as tertiary education or post-secondary non-tertiary
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numbers and in hirings indicates where demand has recently
increased or declined.
To identify the occupations associated with more precarious
employment contracts, and high and increasing job turnover,
three types of contractual arrangements, and a fourth
overarching indicator, were analysed for the nine major
occupational groups:
1. the proportion of hirings with temporary contracts
2. the proportion of hirings conducted via TWAs
3. the proportion of hirings with part-time contracts
4. the proportion of recently started jobs.
A recently started job is defined here as having started within
three months prior to the interview and is equivalent with ajob hiring. The occupational groups with particularly high,
or even increasing, hiring rates are likely to have high and
increasing levels of job turnover, especially if confirmed by
the three indicators on contractual arrangements presented
above.
To measure job opportunitiesa ratio of unemployed to job
hirings is used.
Unemployed to job hirings (LFS)
The ratio of unemployed to job hirings indicates the
relative ease of hiring, or the relative competition for jobs
among the unemployed. An increase in the ratio can be
due to increasing unemployment, decreasing job hirings or
a combination of both.
A ratio of less than 1.0 (indicating fewer people looking for
work than there are vacancies available) is possible but it
does not necessarily mean a shortage of labour supply.
The main reason in this case is that not all jobseekers
are unemployed. In buoyant labour markets particularly,
workers may change jobs without being unemployed in
the meantime, leaving a vacancy for which another person
needs to be hired while unemployment levels remain
unaffected.
Exploring the comparative position of different recruitment
channels and their importance for different types of jobs, the
report focuses on the PES and the TWA. The LFS data of self-
reported hirings by age group and education level are used to
profile both the PES and TWA and the development of their
profiles over the last four years.
an estimate based on a survey of companies of their open
vacancies at the time of the survey, while in other countries
the total number is based on administrative data.
Job hirings and job hiring rate
Job hirings refer to employees who were employed in a
reference week of that quarter and have started working
for their employer within a month, or, at most, three
months earlier than the month of the reference week this
excludes contract renewals.
For a person who started multiple jobs within the same
quarter, only the last hire is counted. Statistical offices
often define such persons as job-findersiv. Eurostat
indicates new jobs by means of the time since the job
started. Job hirings do not cover the self-employed as ajob vacancy is defined as a vacant post for an employee
(see definition above).
The term job hiring rate usually refers to the proportion of
hirings in a recent period. In this report the term job hiring
rate expresses the number of job hirings as a percentage
of all employees to give a useful indicator of the dynamics
of recruitment in the labour market.
Inflow of PES vacancies
The inflow of PES vacancies is the number of newly
registered job vacancies during a certain period of time.
The inflow of registered job vacancies depends not only
on the demand for labour, but also on the extent to which
employers involve the PES in filling job vacancies. In terms
of international comparisons, it is not possible to use
stock figures due to the differences in national policies on
closing registered vacancies. For example, the stock will be
higher if vacancies are closed after six months compared
to if they are closed after just one month.
To identify top growth occupations the analysis of
developments in recruitment demand is carried out at different
levels. Firstly, the focus is on developments in employee
numbers. However, an analysis of changes in employees alone
is not suffi cient to assess movements in job opportunities.
Even if the number of employees falls, recruitment demand
can still increase, for example when an increased number
of older workers leaves the labour market. Secondly, an
analysis of changes in hirings is conducted and it includes the
identification of the Top 25 occupations with
i) the strongest hirings growth
ii) the strongest hirings decline
iii) the most hirings in the most recent calendar year.
Such an analysis alone is not sufficient, because an increase
in hirings may merely reflect increasing job turnover. Butcombined together, an analysis of both changes in employee
iv In the EVRR 2012, the phrase job-finders rather than job hirings was used. In other
literature, they are sometimes called recent recruits
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occupational groups. Finally, the chapter identifies those
occupations with the largest increases and decreases and the
highest volumes of hirings.
Chapter 6presents an in-depth profile of those occupational
fields which include the Top 25 growth occupations namely:
healthcare, information and communication technology (ICT),
engineering, education and finance. The main developments
in employee numbers in these occupational fields for each
country are presented and the analysis focuses on the key
features of employment, and the implications for future
recruitment.
Chapter 7further explores the relevance of educational levels
for hirings in general and for the various major occupational
groups. It discusses to what extent jobseekers with differenteducational levels found jobs in the corresponding skills levels
(low, medium and high).
Chapter 8 further elaborates on the key features of the
contractual arrangements discussed in general in Chapter
3. This chapter explores which major occupational groups
were particularly affected by the growth in more flexible
employment arrangements.
Chapter 9examines the demand for young people (the 15-29
age group) and it explores those occupations where young
people were hired in increasing numbers, taking into account
changes in total employment. Starting with youth hirings by
major occupational group, it then concentrates on the top
25 occupations where youth hirings have increased. The
chapter concludes by studying the educational level of young
people who were recently hired, both including and excluding
students.
Chapter 10and Chapter 11examine the relative importance
of two recruitment channels: PES and TWA. It discusses
their different profiles in regard to job hirings of different
age groups and education levels. These chapters illustrate
the development of hirings via PES and TWA for the major
occupational groups and present relevant details of the Top10
occupations which featured most prominently in PES and TWA
hirings.
The Statistical Annexes includes detailed tables with absolute
numbers and indices for the whole EU, as well as for individual
countries. It also presents the country-specific data about
occupations that are most in demand (top-growth occupations)
and those which experience decline (by employee number and
PES vacancy inflow).
Job hirings via PES or a TWA
The LFS contains two questions relevant to the recruitment
channel:
Has the PES contributed to the finding of your current
job?
Is your current job a TWA job?
As PES and PRES (private employment agencies) cooperate
in many countries with the PES (including vacancies
from private sector agencies in their own databases for
jobseekers), the results presented may be used to identify
the market share for each of these channels, but do not
allow for direct comparison.
The LFS data also allows for analyses of the development of
hirings via PES and TWA for the major occupational groups as
well as the identification of the Top10 occupations featuredmost prominently in both PES and TWA hirings.
Structure of the report
Chapter 1examines the context for the development of job
vacancies in Europe, focusing on changes in economic and
employment growth. It explains the overall movements in GDP
and employment over the past five years. The period covered
encompasses the economic crisis that started in 2008 and
then engulfed most parts of the world.
In Chapter 2the focus is on the exploration of job vacancies
and their development at the EU level and in individual
countries. It analyses how recruitment demand responded to
the economic crisis and the extent to which it has recovered
since then.
Chapter 3explores key trends in recruitment demand from
the development of both total and youth hirings since the
beginning of 2008 against the background of trends in overall
employee numbers. Young people are afforded a separate
analysis reflecting the growth in youth unemployment. It also
examines the developments in contractual arrangements
in hiring, especially focusing on part-time and temporary
contracts and it explores the extent to which these contracts
are voluntary or involuntary from the employee perspective.
Chapter 4 focuses on the types of jobseekers that are
hired and how this compares to the number of unemployed
jobseekers for different categories of educational level and
age group. The implications of these trends for young people,
particularly in the context of job opportunities, are explored
in detail.
Chapter 5combines an analysis of changes both in employee
numbers and in hirings to indicate where recruitment demandhas recently expanded or contracted. A picture of expansion
demand and replacement demand is presented covering
demand arising from older workers leaving the labour market
and from job-to-job movements. The development of job
hirings and employment are also disaggregated by major
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1.1 Introduction
This chapter examines the context for the development of
job vacancies in Europe, focusing on changes in economic
and employment growth. The period covered encompasses
the economic crisis that started in 2008 and then engulfed
most parts of the world and underlined the high degree of
economic interdependence that now exists. This was clearlydemonstrated in the EU and within the euro-zone where
Member States are strongly inter-reliant.
In Europe, the effects of the crisis were mixed and most
Member States suffered the effects later than in other parts
of the world. The key triggers - a fall in construction activity
and the financial crisis - were certainly felt early on in some
EU Member States such as Ireland, Spain and the United
Kingdom, while others such as France, Germany and the
Netherlands were less susceptible to these factors, at least
in the early stages of the crisis. However, eventually all EU
Member States were affected to some extent, both in terms
of economic growth and the labour market.
1.2 Background
Latest GDP growth shows tentative signs ofemerging recovery
The delayed start of the crisis is evident in movements in the
quarterly index of GDP between the first quarter of 2008 (the
base) and the third quarter of 2013 (Chart 1.1). For the EU281
GDP continued to increase during the last three quarters
of 2008 before it fell sharply at the beginning of 2009. It
then failed to recover to the base quarter until the fourth
quarter of 2010 when it finally reached 102. Subsequent
years displayed a similar pattern of falls below the base
quarter at the beginning of the year, before regaining some
momentum. By the end of 2013, average EU GDP growth had
not recovered to the level that prevailed at the start of the
crisis in 2008. However, the most recent data (for the second
and third quarters of 2013) gives some room for cautious
optimism with tentative signs of an emerging recovery, a
view reflected in the Annual Review of the EU Employment
and Social Situation Quarterly Report which stated:
1 Following Croatias accession to the EU in July 2013, the figures for Croatia have been
backdated and included to create a consistent pattern for the current 28 Member States.
There are signs that an economic recovery in the EU, even if
fragile, is beginning to take hold2.
Employment stabilised since 2010 but at alower level
Developments in employment over the same period have
been sensitive to the changes in GDP, more or less trackingthe troughs and peaks. The indices of both employment in
total3and employees effectively peaked in the third quarter
of 2008 and then slipped below the base quarter and failed
to regain the same position by the third quarter of 2013. All
this is reflected in changes in the employment rate for the
EU28. For males and females aged 15-64 combined, this fell
from 65.7 per cent in 2008 to 64.1 per cent in 2012, which
translated into millions of jobs lost and an unemployment
rate that increased from 7.1 per cent in 2008 to 10.5 per cent
in 2012. Men fared worse, with a fall in the male employment
rate of 3.1 per percentage points from 72.7 per cent in 2008
to 69.6 per cent in 2012. In contrast there was little change
in the employment rate for women which fell only slightly
from 58.8 per cent to 58.5 per cent. This discrepancy is to
some extent explained by the larger effects of the economic
downturn on certain male-dominated sectors such as
construction and manufacturing, especially in countries where
those sectors were severely affected such as Ireland, Spain
and the United Kingdom.
Recent analysis of the gender gap in employment4confirmed
that male employment is more sensitive to fluctuations in
the business cycle than female employment. According to
this report, in countries such as Latvia and Lithuania where
labour market conditions improved recently, the employment
of males is also likely to increase faster at the start of a
recovery, to some extent restoring the traditional gender gap
in employment rates. The fact that the number of unemployed
rose faster than the loss in jobs suggests that labour supply
increased. The report notes that there was an increasing
activity rate among women (possibly where women returned
to work to maintain family incomes in the face of job losses
among other family members) while the activity rate for men
remained more or less the same.
2 European Commission DG EMPL (2013) EU Employment and Social Situation Quarterly
Report (Special Edition: Annual Review) http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&cat
Id=89&newsId=1974&furtherNews=yes
3 Total employment includes self-employed and family workers in addition to employees.
4 European Commission DG EMPL (2013) Labour Market Developments in Europe 2013,
p. 26, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2013/pdf/
ee6_en.pdf
1 Economic context and
employment
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90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Chart 1.1 Development of GDP, total employment and self-employedIndex, 2008Q1 - 2013Q3, 2008Q1 = 100, 28 countries
Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey, National Accounts and EVRR calculations.
GDP: Chain-linked volumes, in euros of reference year 2005, not seasonally adjusted.
Absolute values 2013Q3: GDP, 2.9 trillion; Employment (in millions): Total, 218.5; Employees, 182.2; Self-employed, 33.0;
Other (family workers) 3.4.
Employmentself-employedGDP
that the sharp economic decline would be short-lived5. This
strategy causes employment to fall less in times of crisis, but
it also causes an extra delay in the later jobs recovery. Another
reason for a delayed response of employment to a recovery in
GDP is that it takes time to recruit new workers. This means
that the initial signs of recovery in GDP in late 2013 may take
some months to translate into jobs growth.
One feature of the crisis has been the growth in non-standard
forms of employment (more fully discussed in Chapter 3).
As labour market conditions tighten, jobseekers will tend to
adjust their requirements accordingly and this generally leads
to higher levels of self-employment, part-time working and
temporary contracts (particularly of the involuntary kind
where jobseekers prefer full-time or permanent employment
contracts), or contracts with even looser conditions such
as zero hours contracts6. Undeclared work has also been
5 OECD Employment Outlook (2012), page 64.
Leitner and Stehrer (2012), Labour hoarding during the crisis: Evidence for Selected
Newer Member States from the Financial Crisis Survey, wiiw working papers 84 http://
wiiw.ac.at/labour-hoarding-during-the-crisis-evidence-for-selected-new-member-states-
from-the-financial-crisis-survey-dlp-2632.pdf
6 Zero hours contracts are essentially on call arrangements where generally there is no
obligation on the employer to offer work and none on the employee to accept it. Those
on such contracts have similar employment rights as regular workers and so will benefit
from, for example, holiday entitlement and any national minimum wage requirements.
The effects of the crisis on employment are even more evident
for young people. Between 2008 and 2012 the employment
rate for those aged 15-24 came down from 37.3 per cent to
32.8 per cent, again with big differences between males and
females. For young males the employment rate fell from 40.3
per cent to 32.8 per cent, while the rate for young females
fell less from 34.3 per cent to 30.7 per cent. This resulted
in increasing levels of youth unemployment, rising from 15.8
per cent in 2008 to 23.0 per cent in 2012, though there was
wide variation between EU Member States. In comparison, the
rise in the overall unemployment rate (the 15-64 age group)
appears relatively modest, increasing from 7.1 per cent in
2008 to 10.5 per cent in 2012.
Changes in employment (especially in the numbers of
employees) tend to respond to changes in economic activity,
but there is a time lag, so it is reasonable to assume that if
the recent signs of a recovery are sustained, then this will
lead to some recovery in jobs. During a crisis, employers may
retain some of their personnel for strategic reasons, even if
there is insufficient work for all their employees. This labour
hoarding was a widely applied strategy during the start ofthe financial crisis in some countries when expectations were
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downturns, in some cases they can have a positive effect
in that labour becomes better allocated to more productive
sectors.
Of those countries with increases in GDP between 2008 and
2012, by far the largest increase was in Poland with 12 per
cent, followed some way behind by Sweden and Slovakia. In
these three countries the growth did not generate similar
growth in employment, and the number of employees actually
fell in Poland and Slovakia. In Poland this disparity can be
largely attributed to increased value-added in the construction
sector which went up by around one-third between 2008
and 2012, while employment remained stable (including the
self-employed which can be a significant component in that
sector).
Three small countries, namely Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta,
showed significant increases in the number of employees
between 2008 and 2012 compared to GDP developments.
In these countries, changes in value-added can be volatile in
certain dominant industries such as finance in Luxembourg
and tourism in Cyprus, so productivity improvements in these
sectors do not necessarily directly translate into employment.
Also in Hungary there is a marked difference between GDP
(falling 6 per cent between 2008 and 2012) and employee
development (increasing 1 per cent), which can be attributed
to public sector job growth both during the crisis and, as noted
earlier, after the crisis.
The 28 Member States are grouped below according to the
direction of medium-term changes in GDP and the number of
employees between 2008 and 2012.
GDP
no change
Employees
Austria, Belgium,
Germany, Malta,
Sweden
Cyprus, Hungary
Estonia, Poland,
Slovakia
EU28
Bulgaria, Croatia,
Cyprus, Czech
Republic, Denmark,
Finland, France,
Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Latvia, Lithuania,
Netherlands, Portugal,
Romania, Slovenia,
Spain, United Kingdom
no change
= increase = decrease
identified7 as an increasing problem during the crisis as
poorer economic conditions persuade some (mostly smaller)
employers to accept and make undeclared payments.
The development of self-employment will depend on a number
of factors including the confidence of the individual to set up
their own business, the amount of support given in terms of
financial assistance and training, and the market for the goods
or services offered (which may be affected by the prevailing
economic conditions). In poor labour market conditions, there
may also be a push factor where an unemployed person
will see self-employment as a second-best alternative to
working as an employee. The number of self-employed fell
earlier than the number of employees, indicating that they
were among the first to feel the effects of the crisis in 2008,
even before GDP fell sharply early in 2009. Between 2010 and2012 self-employment proved more stable than the number
of employees, but at the start of 2013 the index fell for both
self-employed and employees alike.
Only five countries recovered both their GDPand employment levels since the start of thecrisis
In the EU28, GDP fell overall by -1 per cent between 2008
and 2012 while employment fell by as much as -3 per cent
in the same period. Within the EU, 18 countries had negative
GDP growth at or below this EU28 level, and all but two of
these countries also experienced negative employee growth.
Over this period the persistence of the effects of the crisis
are clear with only nine countries (Austria, Belgium, Estonia,
France, Germany, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Sweden)
showing positive or zero GDP growth in 2012 compared to
2008 (Chart 1.2).
In the nineteen countries with negative GDP changes since
2008, GDP fell by -4.6 per cent on average and the number of
employees fell on average by -5.6 per cent since 2008. This
suggests that employment was more responsive to economic
change in 2012 than historical expectations (so-called Okuns
Law8) where employment changes tended to be, on average,
around half of GDP changes (whether positive or negative).
Countries with particularly high job losses (over 10 per cent)
were Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania and
Spain. While job losses are normally a feature of economic
7 European Commission DG EMPL (2014) Employment and Social Developments in Europe
2013; http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=89&newsId=2023&furtherNe
ws=yes
8 Okuns law refers to his observation in 1962 that employment changes in the USA were
on average half of GDP changes, both positively and negatively. This is confirmed
repeatedly across the world; see e.g. Ecorys and IZA (2011), Analysis of costs and
benefits of active compared to passive measures, p 198, ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet
?docId=7601&langId=en. Exceptions to Okuns law are a group of Continental countries
including Austria, Belgium, France and Germany with employment changes less than
half of GDP changes
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21E u r o p e a n V a c a n c y a n d R e c r u i t m e n t R e p o r t
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Greece
Croatia
Latvia*
Slovenia
Hungary