Why a Long-Term View for Chinese Why a Long-Term View for Chinese Economy Economy

An Introductory lectureAn Introductory lecture

EH207EH207

Debin MaDebin Ma

Oct. 2012Oct. 2012

150 Year of economic transformation through 150 Year of economic transformation through the prism of a citythe prism of a cityShanghai in 1817Shanghai in 1817

Shanghai in 1920s: one city, three Shanghai in 1920s: one city, three governmentsgovernments

The Bund in about 1932:The Bund in about 1932:

                                                                                                    

Shanghai 1990 vs. 2010 as the show piece of the Reform eraShanghai 1990 vs. 2010 as the show piece of the Reform era

What is this course?What is this course?

This is a unique course.This is a unique course.

a 150 year perspective a 150 year perspective

a comparative perspectivea comparative perspective

a multi-disciplinary approach (economics, a multi-disciplinary approach (economics, history, political economy, international history, political economy, international relations, sociology, business).relations, sociology, business).

Some notes about the courseSome notes about the course This is not a typical history course, but familiarity This is not a typical history course, but familiarity

with Chinese history will be extremely helpful. with Chinese history will be extremely helpful. When needed, you should consult standard When needed, you should consult standard history textbook or internet sources on China. history textbook or internet sources on China.

Neither is this an economics course but Neither is this an economics course but knowledge of applied economics will be useful. knowledge of applied economics will be useful.

Be ware there is no set text but mostly journal Be ware there is no set text but mostly journal articles or book chapters. Be prepared for articles or book chapters. Be prepared for debates and controversies and be prepared to debates and controversies and be prepared to be critical. be critical.

Why a long-term view Why a long-term view China is hugeChina is huge

In terms of population, it is almost five times the US, In terms of population, it is almost five times the US, three times the EU, ten times that of Japan. three times the EU, ten times that of Japan.

Indeed, some of the larger provinces in China are Indeed, some of the larger provinces in China are nearly as large as Japan and Germany. nearly as large as Japan and Germany.

China is a continent or a civilization all by itself. China is a continent or a civilization all by itself.

But more than these, But more than these, it is the world’s largest common market unified by a it is the world’s largest common market unified by a

single (written) language.single (written) language. has a unusually high degree of ethnic homogeneity has a unusually high degree of ethnic homogeneity

for her size for her size is also the single surviving civilization with a is also the single surviving civilization with a

continuous history. continuous history.

Some questionsSome questions Why was it so big and how did become so big?Why was it so big and how did become so big?

Why and how did it survive?Why and how did it survive?

Why was it so homogeneous?Why was it so homogeneous?

Why was it so continuous?Why was it so continuous?

And what do all these mean for the future of China and And what do all these mean for the future of China and the world economy?the world economy?

These issues can not be properly interpreted without a These issues can not be properly interpreted without a proper understanding of history. proper understanding of history.

A map of Han dynasty China circa 2A map of Han dynasty China circa 2ndnd AD AD

Chinese Chinese Expansion: the Great Wall, the Grand Canal, the East-Expansion: the Great Wall, the Grand Canal, the East-

West River systemWest River system

A map of China todayA map of China today

The Maddison view of long-term Chinese economyThe Maddison view of long-term Chinese economy

Some examples of the long-run Some examples of the long-run historical legacyhistorical legacy

The surge of Household Responsibility System as The surge of Household Responsibility System as the restoration of a traditional agrarian property the restoration of a traditional agrarian property rights regime. rights regime.

The revival of national college entrance The revival of national college entrance examination system and the rise of technocracy examination system and the rise of technocracy echoes the traditional civil service examination echoes the traditional civil service examination system (human capital).system (human capital).

The initial opening-up of coastal cities and the The initial opening-up of coastal cities and the emergence of regional gap within China. emergence of regional gap within China.

Questions on long-term economic growth in ChinaQuestions on long-term economic growth in China

Why economic growth now?Why economic growth now?

Why not 1950s?Why not 1950s?

Why not 1911?Why not 1911?

Why not 1842?Why not 1842?

Why not 18Why not 18thth century (California School)? century (California School)?

Why not 14Why not 14thth century (Needham hypothesis)? century (Needham hypothesis)?

What about economic growth in futureWhat about economic growth in future

We hope by the end of the term, you will be convinced that a We hope by the end of the term, you will be convinced that a historical perspective is uniquely useful for understanding China’s historical perspective is uniquely useful for understanding China’s present and future. present and future.

Logistic Issues for the course Logistic Issues for the course

Two teachers: Steve Ivings and Emily Tang. Two teachers: Steve Ivings and Emily Tang.

Reading materials on the Moodle (updated Reading materials on the Moodle (updated periodically throughout the term). Lecture periodically throughout the term). Lecture slides uploaded usually a little before each slides uploaded usually a little before each lecture. lecture.

Participation during lecture most welcome. Participation during lecture most welcome.

A slight change in format of examA slight change in format of exam

The basic idea of the change is to give more The basic idea of the change is to give more weight to essay type of questions. weight to essay type of questions.

Experience tells us that students are far more Experience tells us that students are far more likely to excel on essay type of questions than likely to excel on essay type of questions than doing well evenly across all questions. doing well evenly across all questions.

The change will be in your favour and the details The change will be in your favour and the details will be confirmed with you in the next lecture. will be confirmed with you in the next lecture.

Any Questions?Any Questions?