Egypt: The Wind & Head Wind of Change

JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE Thursday, February 17, 2011

EGYPT Macro, Sectors & Selective Corporates Initial Paper on Impact of Recent Events

Egyptians started revolting on January 25, 2011 and continued for 18 days until succeed-ed in ousting President Hosni Mubarak from office. The Egyptian Military Supreme Council - EMSC assumed command of the country and promised to pass it to a civilian administration in a time frame of 6-9 months. Crack-down on corruption, dissolving both lower and upper house along with amending the Egyptian constitution were the first of the EMSC steps toward achieving its promises, with plans to hold a public referendum on the new constitution by April Although the Egyptian pro-democracy demonstrations were essentially peaceful, it was accompanied by acts of vandalism and chaos which resulted in most countries issuing warnings to its citizens not to be in Egypt in the mean time. This was followed by an all wide exodus of foreigners and tourists out of the country. Although the demonstrations have achieved its primary goals, nation wide strikes and demonstrations followed suit, from different benefit groups looking for improving their working benefits. The public sector banks joined the strikes which resulted in CBE decid-ing on closing banks from Monday February 14 to the end of the week. EMSC re-sponded by mandating an all public employees 15% tax-free raise to quell strikes. Banking officials said capital flight is less than expected, however, CBE reported at the end of January, just at the beginning of the unrests have showed foreign reserves falling US$1 billion compared to a month before to reach US$35 billion. On January 31, Moody's downgraded Egyptian bond ratings further into junk status, to "Ba2" from “Ba1”, and changed the outlook to “negative” from “stable”. S&P also low-ered Egypt's long-term foreign currency sovereign rating to “BB” from “BB+”, and warned it may downgrade its Egypt rating further in 3 month time. The worries now are from the fragmented benefit groups demonstrations and strikes and these impact on the economy as well as officials in the tourism ministry have said Egypt lost US$1 billion in tourist revenues over the last weeks and estimate 2011 to be half those of 2010. Furthermore, we expect cheaper packages to promote tourism, will result in weaker recovery in tourist revenues than in tourists numbers to ensue. Even if these strikes continue for a couple of months, it is normal in a period of height-ened emotional charge and major change to witness disturbance in productivity and a couple of months of low productivity won’t bring the country or its economy to its knees, but surely 2011 should be seen as a year that sets the economic growth pace for future years rather than expecting any positive or even zero economic growth in it. Given that Egypt’s BOP generated US$3.4 billion surplus in FY10 driven by strong tour-ism, and capital account which countered for a US$25 bn negative trade balance, we see a large BOP deficit in FY11 and to a lesser extent in FY12 ending June 2012. As we see a significant shrinkage in FDIs as well as tourism related revenues. The Egyptian Stock Market remain closed since January 30, 2011 and hopes to start trad-ing in the week starting February 20, once banks are operating normally again. In this report, we assessed the political situation in order to understand its effect on the macro economy in our attempt to have a top-down assessment of the situation on the Egyptian sectors and companies. The defensive sectors such as food, oil, telecoms and pharmaceutical are expected to be the least affected during the period of uncertainty. We initially estimate EGX30 constituent companies to witness a 20% decline in 2011 profits and market to trade at a trailing 8x PER to factor to 2011 slowdown and un-certainty level, which should gradually improve by time. Maridive, comes first in our mind of defensive companies, since most of its operation is outside Egypt and denominated in hard currency. Other favorites include, OCI, Sewedy Electric, Aracemco, Juhayna, National Maize, Delta Sugar, EFIC, Abu Kier, EIPICO, Telecom Egypt and to lesser extent, Mobinil and Orascom Telecom. Risky sectors include banking, although strong banks like CIB and NSGB are expected to perform relatively better, while higher risk sectors include financials, real estate, du-rable goods and textiles, which are expected to be effected harder by the current climate.

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Analyst: Mohamed Fahmy

Email : [email protected]

Mobile: +2012 2157312

The Wind & Head Wind of Change EGP/1US$ 5.88

Population (mn) 85

GDP US$ (bn) FY10 196

GDP/Capita (US$) 2,200

Real GDP Growth FY10 5.1%

Annual Inflation (Jan. 2011) 10.8%

Fiscal Balance % of GDP FY10 -9.3%

Public Debt % of GDP FY10 77%

External Debt % of GDP FY10 16%

Trade Balance FY10 (US$ bn) -25.1

Net Service FY10 (US$ bn) 10.4

Transfers FY10 (US$ bn) 10.4

Current Acc. FY10 (US$ bn) -4.3

Capital Acc. FY10 (US$ bn) 8.3

FX reserves (US$ bn) 35

EGX Market Cap (US$ bn) 35

EGX30 PER 2010 10.4x

EGX30 YTD Change -21%

BOP Balance FY10 (US$ bn) 3.4

Unemployment Rate 9.2%

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

12/30 1/4 1/9 1/14 1/19 1/24 1/29 2/3 2/8 2/13

Exchange Rate EGP/1USD

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

12/30 1/6 1/13 1/20 1/27

EGX30

JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE February 17, 2011


Table of Content

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Page 3 Egypt

Page 3 Politics

Page 3-4 Macro-Economy

Page 5 Stock Market

Page 5-8 Sectors

Page 9 Update on Companies Jazira Capital was Initiator of Coverage

Page 10-11 Egyptian Revolution Timeline

Page 12-13 Selected Related Corporate Press Releases

Page 14-15 EGX 30 & Jazira Capital Focus Companies Price Sheet

Page 16 Disclosure



Egypt Egypt has witnessed dramatic changes in its internal political arena over the past couple of weeks, which culminated with President Hosni Mubarak stepping down on Friday, February 11, 2011, his ruling National Democratic Party stumbles into disarray and the Egyptian Mili-tary Supreme Council - EMSC taking command of the country for an expected six to nine months transition period.

Furthermore, the EMSC which has the support of most of the Egyptians, has dissolved the people’s assembly and the upper house (Shuraa Council) based on the populace believe of high levels of corruption and forged ballots in the latest people’s assembly elections in Sep-tember 2010.

The EMSC has also suspended work with the Egyptian constitution due to that operating with it, would result in a stand still situation as several of its articles hinder changes in it or dissolv-ing of the people’s assembly in the case of not having a country’s president. Both the changes in the constitution and holding fair people’s assembly elections are major milestones in the bid to have free and fair presidential elections later down the road.

Most of the demonstrations have calmed down, however, the situation remains fluid. The EMSC with its strong populace support and steps it took toward achieving the Egyptian ma-jority requests and assurances that it has no ambition to remain in power more than needed make us able now to have some outlook on what to come.

Politics The EMSC has assured that it will abide with all treaties Egypt has signed with foreign parties, this marginalize any direct confrontation with Israel and minimizes any foreign pressures from the western countries.

All religious groups have said that this revolution is for the Egyptian people and they have no ambitions to take the lead. This is applicable on the short term and may apply on the long term which would lead to a calming down of sectarian friction. However, talks on making Egypt’s constitution a secular one will meet resistance and could result in further friction if it is at-tempted to be passed in a hasty way.

The Egyptian police will attempt to improve their image in-front of the nation with improving their attitude and way it deals with general public. The police officers have appealed to im-prove their conditions and salaries in their bid to be more civilized and having respect through their work rather than force and corruption.

The following period is expected to witness a heightened political awareness and emergence of new political parties. This is in itself a great and one of the best outcomes of the latest events. However, it also poises to be the most active ingredient of the fluid situation. The level of risk depends on the parties’ ability to debate without escalated friction, and their adherence to the power of the ballots.

Macro-Economy On the sidelines of the latest events, vandalism and thefts emerged. This is normal in any situ-ation that is that fluid. Losses may escalate to billions. However, it has not damaged the econ-omy significantly, and insurance along with government compensations would mitigate the impact of these unfortunate cases even further. So, no significant direct impact from the events that passed, except on the tourism sector, which has been impacted heavily, as in the first 18 days of unrest, one million tourists have left the country and initial losses surpassed one bil-lion dollars.

Demonstrations are now getting fragmented to certain groups of interest with each demanding improvement to their specific conditions. This has and will continue for a while. Its impact will be more felt in the public sector and companies that are dominated with public ownership. Two of most sensitive public owned sectors, Suez Canal and Oil sector are well funded and can calm down protests once emerged. The negative outcome of such compensations will be off course less revenue to fund other sectors of the economy.

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President ousted, Military takes command and promise swift transition of power to a civilian elected leadership EMSC dissolve both upper & lower council and suspend con-stitution No change in Egypt's foreign affairs Unity should soften sectarian friction in the short-term Police bid to improve its image in front of the public The real test will be the ac-ceptance of different parties to the outcome of the ballots Vandalism & thefts erupted when the police withdrew its forces from the streets on Feb. 4, however, the direct impact of these events is not significant except if accounting for tourism lost revenues Benefit group are using the fluid situation to pressure employers for better benefits



Higher spending on police and army are expected to be another outcome, also another strain on the government’s chest, which is already stressed out with over US$159 billion public debt and a annual FY10 public budget deficit of 9.3% of GDP. So we expect sectors that are dominated with public ownership, high union activity and low profitability such as the textile, milling and pharmaceutical sectors to witness the most turbu-lence in production. Public banks which represent around 40%, 45% and 28% of the Egyptian banking sector with respect to assets, deposits and loans respectively are facing the strongest retaliation against its recently appointed private mentality management. This may drag these banks backward with respect to reform at least for a while. They may fail to be competitive in the short to medium term which can prove positive to private sector banks which will show their clients that they are able to perform and do have an edge over the public sector banks. One or two months of overhauling doesn’t really bring an economy to its knees. Yes, with more focus on politics, we see 2011 as more a year to set the pace to the years to come rather a year for the economy. Tourism was hard hit, with over 14 million tourists arriving to Egypt in 2010 and injecting near-ly US$12 billion into the country, we don’t see much of these funds coming back soon, with preliminary estimates say 2011 tourism may fall 50% versus last year. Red Sea coastal resorts will be the first to see recovery. Currently occupancy in Sharm El-Sheikh is less than 15% versus 70% in mid January. We expect like following the 1997 terrorist attacks, to see a downgrade in the quality of tourists too, to those who will ignore media hype to capitalize on even cheaper packages. This would yield a drop in tourism revenues to be of a larger magnitude than tourist arrival numbers. So although, we may see number of tourists fol-lowing its current trough to improve, we see money generated to improve at a slower pace. With any significant change in a community, major changes in social spending and wealth will follow. The most dangerous of those is the demonizing of capitalism; this was an undercurrent in the mind of a portion of Egyptian society for decades but now has the ability to surface. The significance of this demonization will depend on the future leaders of Egypt, and their offered agendas to receive populace approval. Having swift, fair and judicial based actions against cor-ruption will, by time, give the populace that the system not them that need to judge violators. Until a stable government is in office, which will take based on the best guesses 6-9 months, it is very hard to imagine new flows of fresh foreign direct investment – FDI or public private partnerships. Foreign money wouldn’t favor to sign agreements with a transition government. On the local front, greater uncertainty is a major deterrent to spending. As it is said, recession is a state of mind more than a state of the economy. Retail, real estate, auto and banking credit will face the most of the brunt of the hit. The sudden economic slowdown would elevate the Egyptian Banking System non-performing loans ratio. We estimate NPL/total loans, stood at the low teens at the end of 2010. A cautious banking system approach toward lending the tourism sector and low real estate funding would go in the favor of the banks combined with loans to deposits standing at the end of 2010 at 53%. So, as we started our macro discussion, 2011 is the year to build Egypt for future years, but it is very hard to see economic positive growth levels and we expect erosion in foreign currency reserves which stood at the end of December 2010 at US$36 billion and have dropped to US$35 by the end of January 2011. The pressure on foreign reserves and exchange rate will continue as long as Egypt’s main for-eign currency sources, tourism and FDIs remain wary from coming back. Will it be a higher import bill or better exports? Remain to be seen… but with Egypt’s balance of payment which recorded a surplus of US$3.4 billion in FY10 ending June 2010 came on the back of a capital and financial surplus account of US$8.4 billion that overshadowed the current account deficit of US$4.3 billion. We don’t see the capital account coming to the aid this year, and surely lower tourism revenues, would result in a higher current account deficit. This is not the time to put exact projection since the situation does remain fluid. Egyptians hope to recover some of the funds that were embezzled by the fallen system officials. Freezing funds, specially Swiss banks, is one thing and repatriating them is a totally different story. It would require years of global arbitration and litigation to prove the legitimacy of the claims. So hopes that these funds would compensate for the expected erosion in Egypt’s foreign reserves are not expected to occur in the short or medium term, let alone their estimated size may have been exaggerated and the amounts that already have been laundered.

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Higher spending on Army, police, and public enterprise workers will put more pressure on Egypt's budget which al-ready recorded a deficit of 9.3% of GDP in FY10 What about GDP? Instability should gradually subside but don’t expect nor-malization in 2011 Tourism revenues to drop 50% in 2011 and Egypt to witness another downgrade in the quality of its tourists over the coming two years Tourist revenue loses since the beginning of the unrest esti-mated at US$1 billion The attitude of the future elect-ed government toward capital-ism and approach to deal with corruption will be a major determent in the recovery pace Not expecting much foreign funds over the transition peri-od. Banks to suffer some expan-sion in NPLs but conservative CBE management over the past decade will help to reduce its impact Expect a wide BOP deficit in 2011, with a dip tourism and FDIs, while we don’t expect significant change in Suez Canal & remittance from ex-pats foreign currency flow We don’t think the much hype on recovering the fallen sys-tem officials accounts in for-eign banks to yield much value at least in the short to medium time frame



Stock Market

The Egyptian stock market was already chocked for while with the political uncertainty. So it was already factored in to a degree. The sharp drop over the last couple of days before trading suspended on January 30, 2011 has also added to the degree of discount for the current events. With the EGX30 and Jazira Capital focus companies list which include the EGX30 companies in addition to over another 30 companies, their respective PER stood at 10.4x and 10.2x respec-tively based on January 27, 2011 stock prices. These levels will be further tested and 2010 mul-tiples should go down at least another 20% to 8.0x to factor for at least a 20% decline in 2011 earnings compared to 2010.

Furthermore, once the stock market opens, we expect an initial major sell-off, which may be met by the some governmental stabilization efforts. Followed by the entry of new funds, as more speculative investors will see the discount as an opportunity, as well as local funds which have no choice in global diversification, will recognize the levels are appealing and will start to inject funds.

However, if your outlook is as mine, that it’s a matter of when, not if, the political and econom-ic situation stabilize, it will be a matter of selection among stocks that have became heavily discounted and stocks that have its mechanisms to cross this period with relatively less negative impact such as export oriented or basic goods. Communication and oil & gas companies will also cross this period with relatively less negative impact than construction, durable goods, real estate and public sector textile companies.

Uncertainty must be reflected on discount rates, to reflect the general fluid situation, which alt-hough do has the potential for a better medium term outcome, remain significantly uncertain. We will raise our discount rate by 5% which is very conservative approach but capital does require a cushion of safety in such times. We have consequently raised our cost of equity to 22.5% from 17.5%.

First we will cover the sectors in general then will move to companies that Jazira Capital was the first to initiate coverage on.

Sectors Banking & Financials The banking sector will suffer from higher non-performing loans essentially from the touristic sector and its ripples on construction, durable goods and personal loans. The sector is relatively shielded by a low loans to deposits ratio and a high NPL coverage ratio. We see the sector will not witness any growth this year and may even witness a decline in profitability this year. How-ever, structurally the banking sector will remain intact, and will be able to recover as soon as the economy starts to pick up, estimated to be by early 2012.

Best stocks in the sector are the most defensive, backed with a conservative management and professional work force that are not expected to cause interruption in the work flow. In addition banks which are more tied to large corporates and multinationals will not see their clients de-faulting as those depending on less structured or retail based banks.

The financial sector on the other hand, will witness a major decline in its operation in addition to operational risks exposure that such a decline in stock market prices may cause.

We don’t recommend the financial sector until the dust settles and we understand better the level of exposure that each company has. Saying so, EFG-Hermes does have the most advanced corporate governance and should be the first to highlight if they have any exposure. Further-more, the company does have ample of cash culminating at EGP11.9 billion at the end of Sep-tember 2010 and it has a diversified operation with less than half of its 9M FY10 revenues stemming from Egypt, but have foreign ownership exposure which may put downward pressure on the stock in the short-term.

Favorites: ♦ Commercial International Bank

♦ National Societe Generale Bank

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We believe that the recent events were to a degree dis-counted in the weeks before its eruption and forecast around 20% further correction before the bulls start picking the heavily discounted stocks Initial picks would be export oriented and basic goods com-panies along with telecoms We raise our cost of equity by 500 basis points to 22.5% from 17.5% to understand better how investors would assess the values of stocks at the time being and to adjust the increased premium as the situation on the political and economic arenas develop Non-performing loans and slowdown in non-interest in-come is expected in the short-term We see banks with strong cor-porate and multinational cus-tomers base to perform rela-tively better The financial sector is high risk in the time being



Building Materials & Construction The building materials companies should witness a spur in the medium term, with expectations that a new Egyptian government once installed will focus on development of infrastructure and low to medium income housing.

However, in the short-term, the uncertainty and the current transitional government not able to focus on development but rather focusing on solving short-term issues, will result in a slow-down in the short-term prospects of the construction & building material sector.

A hike in building material prices which would favor building materials companies but may hurt construction companies. (Steel and cement have spiked to unprecedented highs during the last three weeks, which we think is related to the illegitimate violations on agricultural and pub-lic lands with those violators expediting their construction to establish a foothold before matters stabilize.) Furthermore, work delays would hurt both.

We see that, building material and construction companies targeting or able to adjust to target low to medium income segments will benefit the most. C&D income classes targeting compa-nies such as Paints & Chemicals (PACH.CA) and Aracemco (CERA.CA) will be least effected in the short term and most benefiting in the medium term. However, PACHIN being 40% owned by the public sector, and the fact that mostly public sector enterprises workers are those causing demonstrations for improved benefits, we can see the possibility of its margins shrink-ing or interruption in its workflow over the coming months.

Furthermore, Sewedy Electric (SWDY.CA) and Orascom Construction (OCIC.CA) will also benefit from their backlog and international diversification. For OCI the more risk to look at is if Algeria catch the wave and populace revolt on the government there.

The greatest uncertainty revolves around Ezz Steel (ESRS.CA) with its chairman directly in the center of corruption allegations. The risks surrounding the company and its ability to hold to Ezz El Dekhila (IRAX.CA) make Ezz Steel not a good choice at the time being.

Favorites: ♦ Orascom Construction Industries

♦ Sewedy Electric

♦ Aracemco

Durable Goods As a repercussion of the people’s uprising, Electrolux have decided to stop the acquisition of Olympic Group (OLGR.CA), furthermore, we see that sales of durable goods will not go back to its previous levels before a couple of months. The same goes for GB Auto (AUTO.CA), alt-hough, GB Auto ability to provide affordable cars, may prove to its favor. However, with tour-ism and enterprises juggling to stay afloat, buses and trucks sales are not expected to pick-up any time soon.

Favorites: ♦ None

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A new elected government is poised to expand infrastructure spending to boost approval levels, however, the transition-al government will have dif-ferent agenda given the situa-tion Companies focusing on low income building materials will fair relatively better Also those with international operation will reap the benefits of diversfication Will not really be on the top of Egyptian shopping lists in the short-term



Food Sector The food sector is destined to benefit from all what is going on, spending on food is not ex-pected to shrink and the demands for higher salaries and the expected rise of low to low-medium income segments disposable income, with a great portion of this rise in income to be channeled to basic demand at least in the short-term.

Furthermore, we consider fertilizers companies as food related companies. We believe Egyptian Financial Industries (EFIC.CA) has the possibility to face less workers interruption and has global outlet to its products. However, we see both EFIC and Abu kier Fertilizers (ABUK.CA) as benefiting from the local conditions, as we expect that although the government will attempt to curb food products price inflation through its co-ops, food prices are expected to rise, which will result in increased farmer income and land return.

Favorites: ♦ Juhayna Food industries

♦ National Maize

♦ Delta Sugar

♦ Egyptian Financial Industries

♦ Abu Kier Fertilizers

Pharmaceutical Sector The pharmaceutical sector is a defensive sector by nature just like the food sector. Egyptian International Pharmaceutical Industries Company - EIPICO (PHAR.CA) comes first to our mind since we are not favoring public sector companies in the short-term until we see how man-agement and workers will deal together in these turbulent days. EIPICO is trading at 8.5x 2010 earnings which may position it not to lose much further once the market open.

Favorites: ♦ EIPICO

Real Estate Sector Well there is a challenge. Although trying to make an economic sense in this fluid times is all challenging but this sector is the most challenging of all.

What now for all the claims against TMG Holding (TMGH.CA) Palm Hills Developments (PHDC.CA) and other companies in the sector that they took lands at cheap prices? Will they be required now to pay higher? Can they lose there allocated land?, maybe, if not for any reason but to calm populace unrest.

So, first we think there is the possibility of a decline in margins. Second: high and high medium income individuals do have the latitude to diversify their assets to outside Egypt or at least to stop spending until the situation becomes more stable.

Furthermore, with expectation of significant decline in grade A & B housing demand, and a consequent current and future customers predicting a decline in property prices, we see a drop in demand and possible expansion in cancelations levels.

Last, we believe real estate developers who can shift faster to real low to medium income seg-ments housing development, will be able to weather the storm with the least losses.

On the medium term, A&B demand will start slowly to surface and properties inventory will gradually be depleted, which will result in a slow but expected recovery of this segment of the sector.

Favorites: ♦ None with a target PER for the sector of 7x.

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Food sector defensive nature and expected increase in low level income employees will aid the sector performance over the coming period Another defensive sector and workers request for better ben-efits will partly ripple into their health benefits Too speculative, with an ex-pected another round of litiga-tion against developers buying land at cheap prices Upper and Upper medium income property buyers are expected to stand on the side-line in the short-term



Telecom, Media & IT The telecom sector, in the shape of fixed lines, mobile and internet are expected to be resilient over the uncertainty period. We may not see growth but we don't expect a significant decline. The only risk for fixed line and postpaid customers is the possible delay in paying bills, but this is not expected to create an issue else if the economy dips significantly.

Egyptian Media Production City (MPRC.CA) have been historically tainted with corruption or at least inefficiencies. What will be the outcome of the current public enterprises reform on this entity may provide some extra potential in the medium term.

Regarding IT sector, a slow work flow in the uncertainty phase, but to recover soon.

Orascom Telecom (ORTE.CA) risks are minimal due to diversification and expected stable performance for Mobinil (EMOB.CA). However, Mobinil FY10 results came below even our expectations which were very conservative, 2010 results compounded by expected no growth in 2011 may put more pressure on Mobinil. For Orascom Telecom, looking at Algeria and Telenor initiating legal action against Vimpelcom’s other shareholders and board to stop its merger with Weather Investments which owns 51% of OT. The deal would have provided OT with needed funding or at least being under the blanket of a better funded entity.

Favorites: ♦ Telecom Egypt

♦ To a lesser extent: Mobinil & Orascom Telecom

Textiles Sector Well, this sector is expected to face problems from the workers. However, cotton companies would remain to benefit from global demand but transportation issues would hinder working at full efficiency.

Oriental Weavers (ORWE.CA) products will not be on the top of Egyptians’ shopping list over the coming period and global demand remain soft.

Arafa Holding (AIVC.CA) export a significant portion of its sales, but with the latest results, workers demonstrations while not yet knowing the outcome of the compromises the manage-ment offered on the going forward financials and our plan to initiate coverage soon, we prefer not to put it in our favorites until we have a closer look.

Favorites: ♦ None

Oil & Related Sectors Maridive (MOIL.CA) benefiting from regional diversification with 90% of its work outside Egypt and 97% denominated in US Dollar. So, this company would be a favorite in the time being. Maridive is trading based on January 27, 2010 price at a trailing PER of 15x, which is expensive, however, with it starting several new contracts in the region, 2011 multiple is ex-pected to be more attractive

Alexandria Mineral Oils (AMOC.CA) is also defensive, working in the provision of fuel deriva-tive.s While Sidi Kerir (SKPC.CA) local sales will be effected and not sure if it can compensate through exports.

Favorites: ♦ Maridive

♦ AMOC

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Telecom sector companies will remain on track but it is al-ready burdened by competition and its respective markets ma-turing Public sector enterprises are expected to witness working disruptions Maridive regional diversifica-tion and AMOC basic fuel products put them as good favorites



Update on Companies Jazira Capital was Initiator of Coverage: Jazira Capital is the sole research house that issued a recommendation on Arab Ceramic Com-pany - Aracemco (CERA.CA) and the first to recommend National Company for Maize Prod-ucts (NCMP.CA). So although those are not the most significant, we will cover these stocks in more details, as part of our duty as initiator of their coverage.

Aracemco

Aracemco has issued an announcement to the EGX stating its facilities were not harmed by the latest vandalism to properties.

Given that Aracemco is a C & D income level ceramic and sanitary ware provider, we see it as a defensive stock in these times. Considering that while the Egyptian revolution was at its peak, over 31k illegitimate housing violation occurred over state and agricultural properties, so we imagine the size and spending of the C&D criteria in these times.

However, we have lowered Aracemco’s 2011 utilization rates by over 20% for both ceramic and sanitary ware products, just as a precautionary measure until the situation becomes more clear or stable compared to our previous projections which included an increase of 2011 pro-duction of ceramics and sanitary ware volumes by 6% and 25% in our initiation report. Howev-er, we assumed that our previous assumptions will start to come back by 2012. We have further lowered 2011 EBITDA margins due to increase in assumed raw material and transportation costs and possible inability to pass cost increase to customers while maintaining sales volumes.

Based on the above adjustments in the valuation, and increasing the discount rate by 5%, we have lowered our Aracemco’s target price to EGP32.7/share versus our previous valuation of EGP41.3/share implying a reduction of over 20% in our target valuation. The new value do imply some very conservative assumptions.

National Maize

National Maize has sent a disclosure letter to the EGX that its operation did not stop during the turbulence period and that all its assets are intact.

National Maize is a producer of products that enter into carbonated drinks and confectionary products. We don’t see an impact of the current events with respect to production and sales. However, the Egyptian pound devaluation will put some strain on its cost structure.

We had already been planning to issue an upgrade for National Maize following confirmation from its investor relations that they were able to pass the increase in cost of corn to its custom-ers, although we realized that some of what we thought expansions to be completed in late 2010 have been postponed to mid to late 2011.

Following our current revisit to National Maize valuation model, we have downgraded the val-ue by 18% to EGP18.5/share versus EGP22.7/share in our 9M FY10 National Maize Update.

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We lowered Aracemco sales volumes by 20% in 2011 ver-sus expectations of robust growth that year in our previ-ous assessment of the compa-ny but assumed recovery of our previous assumptions by 2012 We lowered the value of the company value by 20% to EGP33/share given the higher discount rate we applied We expect national maize to perform as usual but with higher exchange rate pressur-ing margins and the higher discount rate led to a 18% re-duction in value

Aracemco KPIs FY ending Dec. 2009a 2010e 2011f 2012f Revenues (EGP mn) 273 345 300 396 EBITDA Margin 34.5% 37.0% 38.1% 38.9% EPS (EGP) 2.69 3.60 2.96 4.09 DPS (EGP) 2.00 2.00 2.25 3.42 PER 10.3x 7.7x 9.4x 6.8x DY 7.2% 7.2% 8.1% 12.3% EV/EBITDA 6.7x 4.8x 5.2x 3.6x Net Cash & Marketable Sec. 12 35 47 65

FY ending Dec. 2009a 2010e 2011f 2012f Revenues (EGP mn) 550 527 705 872 EBITDA Margin 22.2% 21.6% 18.6% 18.2% EPS (EGP) 2.11 2.13 2.32 2.86 DPS (EGP) 1.85 1.74 2.05 2.52 PER 7.8x 7.7x 7.1x 5.7x DY 11.3% 10.6% 12.5% 15.4% EV/EBITDA 4.2x 4.6x 4.3x 3.6x Net Debt 91 82 121 135

Source: Aracemco historical & Jazira Capital estimates

Source: National Maize historical & Jazira Capital estimates



Egypt Revolution Timeline

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December 17, 2010 ♦ In Tunisia Mohamed Bouazizi sets fire to himself in the central town of Sidi Bouzid in protest at confisca-tion by police of his vegetable cart. Local people demonstrate in support.

January 4, 2011 ♦ Bouazizi dies of his burns. Huge funeral adds momentum to protests against unemployment and repression.

January 14 ♦ After days of clashes in which dozens are killed, and having made empty promises of reforms and elections, Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali flees to Saudi Arabia.

January 15 - 24 ♦ Thousands of Egyptians demand an end to President Hosni Mubarak's rule inspired by Ben Ali's downfall. ♦ Calls to hold a protest in Tahrir square on the Egyptian National Police Day garner momentum

January 25 ♦ Egypt’s National Police Day ♦ Demonstrations calling for president stepping down start in Tahrir Square and continue to early hours of the

next day

January 26 ♦ In unprecedented scenes, police fight with thousands of Egyptians who defy a government ban to protest against Mubarak's rule.

January 27 ♦ Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA, arrives in Cairo to join and motivate protesters

January 28 ♦ At least 24 people are killed and more than 1,000 hurt in clashes throughout Egypt. Mubarak enacts a curfew in major Egyptian cities.

♦ Police retreat and leave their stations resulting in massive criminals escaping for jails and police stations ♦ Police nationwide retreat create a security vacuum and give criminals and looters a free rein ♦ Mubarak orders army troops and tanks into cities overnight to quell demonstrations. Thousands cheer at the

news of the intervention of the army, which is seen as neutral, unlike the police who are regularly deployed to stifle dissent.

January 29 ♦ Mubarak sacks his cabinet but refuses to step down. Protesters stream back into Cairo's central Tahrir Square in the early hours after Mubarak's announcement.

♦ Mubarak names intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice-president. ♦ Thousands of protesters roam the streets after a curfew starts. ♦ Egyptians form vigilante groups to guard property against looters.

January 31 ♦ The army says it will not use force against Egyptians staging protests and says freedom of expression is guaranteed to all citizens using peaceful means.

♦ Egypt swears in a new government. Suleiman says Mubarak has asked him to start dialogue with all political forces.

♦ Thousands in Tahrir Square hours after curfew, in a good-natured gathering, call for the president to quit. ♦ Moody's downgraded Egyptian bond ratings further into junk status, to "Ba2" from "Ba1," and changed the

outlook to "negative" from "stable

February 1 ♦ Mubarak declares he will surrender power when his term ends in September, offering a mixture of conces-sions and defiance in a televised statement.

♦ Around 1 million Egyptians protest throughout the country for Mubarak to step down immediately. ♦ S&P said it has Egypt's long-term foreign currency sovereign rating to BB from BB+. The cuts still left the

rating within the investment grade category, but reflected the increasing alarm with which investors are viewing the developments in Egypt. S&P warned that it could issue another downgrade — possibly by more than one notch — within the next three months.

February 2 ♦ The army calls for protesters to leave the streets and curfew hours are eased. ♦ Troops make no attempt to intervene as violence breaks out between pro- and anti-Mubarak groups in Tahrir

Square. ♦ The Egyptian government rejects U.S. and European calls for political transition to start immediately.

February 3 ♦ Gunmen fire on anti-government protesters in Cairo, where about 10 are killed and more than 830 injured in fighting. The U.N. estimates that 300 people have died in the unrest.

♦ Fitch lowered Egypt's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to BB from BB+ and the long-term local currency rating to BB+ from BBB- Fitch's report noted that Egypt's economy has already suffered from the turmoil, and that business activity will fall sharply and unemployment will rise. It also warned that the economic impact could be even more severe if investors start to pull out capital and households and companies decide to pull their money out of the banking system.



Egypt Revolution Timeline (continued)

11

February 9 ♦ Four people are killed and several wounded in clashes between security forces and about 3,000 protesters in the western province of New Valley, south of Cairo.

♦ Pro-democracy protesters consolidate a new encampment around Cairo's parliament building as Tahrir Square re-mains crowded. Protesters say organizers are working on plans to move on to the state radio and television building on February 11.

February 10 ♦ On the 17th day of protests against his rule, Mubarak says Egypt is heading "day after day" to a peaceful transfer of power and he was committed to protect the constitution until that happens.

♦ President hands powers to his vice-president but spurned protesters' demands that he quit office immediately. He also expressed regret over protesters' deaths.

♦ The army announces its supreme council to remain in session until further notice

February 11 ♦ Protesters stage their largest demonstrations all over the country and a portion of it moves to the presidential palac-es, but remain peaceful.

♦ Omar Suleiman announces Mubarak has stepped down, Egyptian Military Supreme Council - EMSC assumes com-mand, protesters jubilation follows.

♦ EMSC announce plans to remove emergency law and plans for holding free presidential elections

February 12 ♦ Curfew reduced to 6 hours, from 12:00 AM to 06:00 AM ♦ EMSC promise crack-down of corruption, and passing the country’s authority to civilian power as soon as possible ♦ EMSC decides to maintain current cabinet and governorates governors until a new government is formed ♦ Stock market to remain closed during the week ending February 17

February 13 ♦ Benefit groups start protests for improving benefits spread over Egypt, with first count reaching 35 strike. More specifically in public sector enterprises, banks and government agencies

♦ EMSC announce disassembling of peoples assembly and upper house ♦ EMSC suspends work with constitution and promises its reform ♦ EMSC warns public from the risks of continued benefit groups strikes and demonstration on the economy and

country’s stability

February 14 ♦ Benefit groups demonstrations continue and escalate ♦ Councilor, Tarek El-beshry, heads the constitution redrafting committee, opposition including a member of the

Muslim brotherhood also join in the 8 member committee assigned for the task

February 15 ♦ Constitution redrafting committee announces it will complete its work in 10 days ♦ Central Bank announces banks will be shut till February 20 due to strikes in public banks and the resignation of

National Bank of Egypt chairman on the back of his bank’s employee strike.

February 16 ♦ Minister of Education announces schools and universities will remain closed for another week starting February 19. ♦ Demonstrations and strikes of benefit groups spread in Delta region and Mahalla Spinning seize to operate

February 8 ♦ Egyptians stage one of their biggest protests. ♦ Vice President Suleiman says Egypt has a timetable for the peaceful transfer of power. He promises no reprisals

against the protesters.

February 7 ♦ MENA reports Mubarak has set up two committees to draw-up changes to the constitution. ♦ The stock market remains closed, to reopen on February 13. ♦ Opposition figures report little progress in talks with the government.

February 6 ♦ Opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood, hold talks with the government, chaired by the vice-president. They say a core demand for the removal of Mubarak is not met. The sides agree to draft a road map for talks and a committee is set up to study constitutional issues.

♦ Banks re-open after a week-long closure. ♦ Thousands gather in Tahrir Square joining noon prayers to honor "martyrs" killed in the bloodshed.

February 4 ♦ Thousands gather in Tahrir Square to again press for an end to Mubarak's rule in a "Day of Departure."

February 5 ♦ Gamal Mubarak, son of the president, resigns from the leadership of Egypt's ruling party.

February 17 ♦ In its effort to quell the nation-wide strikes, the EMSC grants all government and public employees a 15% tax ex-empted raise starting April 2011.



Selected Related Corporate Press Releases Most companies have released statements related to the impact of the latest events on their oper-ation. Most companies we read their disclosures had no direct impact on their operation, with the exception of: Arafa Holding (AVIC.CA) had four out of its 46 Concrete stores affected by the actions of vandalism and looting that occurred on February 4 & 5. . However, the impact of this on the company financials is extremely minimal. Furthermore, the company released on February 15 that almost 25% of its 6,000 workers went into a strike. Mainly workers of Swiss Garments Company and Egyptian Tailoring Company asking for some personal demands. Accordingly, AIVC’s management decided to shut down its factories in 10th of Ramadan city (Swiss Gar-ments Company, Egyptian Tailoring Company and Goldentex) in addition to the Beni Sweif Facilities starting 15th of February till Thursday 17th of February for the management to assess the situation and the labor demands. Arafa added it hopes the situation become resolved over these days and the factories to normally resume operations by Saturday the 19th of February. On another front, in the same release Arafa mentioned that Concrete stores resumed operations (in addition to Concrete factory in 6th of October City that was not affected by the recent devel-opments) on Tuesday the 8th of February Arafa came out on February 17 and said it has resolved the labor issuesand work will start as planned on Saturday February 19.

The Following statements were extracted from Reuters and confirmed from EGX website: Palm Hills Development (PHDC.CA) Egypt's second-biggest listed property developer said on Feb. 8 it had resumed operations fol-lowing a one-week hiatus. Ezz Steel (ESRS.CA) Egypt's largest steel maker said its plants were operating although not at full capacity and said an investigation involving the chairman would not affect company activity. Orascom Construction (OCIC.CA)(OCICq.L) Egypt's biggest listed company said it had resumed work at almost 90 percent of its construction sites in Egypt as of Sunday Feb. 6. OCI said production rates were normal at its fertilizer plants and exports were under way. EFG-Hermes (HRHO.CA)(HRHOq.L) Egypt's biggest investment bank, which has up to $6.2 billion in assets under management, said it had resumed work and there had been no damage to any of its assets or property. EFG Hermes also released that its ties to, Gamal Mubark , the son of Egypt’s former president, is contained to Gamal’s ownership of 18% in EFG for Direct Investment. This Subsidiary repre-sent around 8% of the group’s revenues. Sixth of October Development & Investment (OCDI.CA) Real estate firm SODIC has resumed construction in its main developments and all projects are on schedule, a statement on the firm's website said. Telecom Egypt (ETEL.CA)(ETELq.L) Fixed-line monopoly Telecom Egypt said there were no changes to the firm's board and that the company was currently evaluating all its locations to check for damage. Olympic Group (OLGR.CA) Appliance maker Olympic Group said its operations were resuming gradually but sales were still significantly lower than usual. The firm said there had been no damage to any of its assets and no changes to its board.

12



Selected Related Corporate Press Releases (continued) Lecico (LCSW.CA) The ceramics maker said operations have been disrupted for the past two and a half weeks. It agreed to increase staff pay and benefits after a two-day strike. Productivity was down 30 per-cent during the past two weeks and local commercial and export activity halted for eight days, it said. Suez Cement (SUCE.CA)(SUCEq.L) The country's largest listed cement company said it had resumed shipments of cement stocks that had been suspended by the political protests. Suez, a subsidiary of Italcementi <ITAI.MI>, resumed operations in all its factories as of Feb. 5. Egyptian Resorts (EGTS.CA) Real estate firm, which makes most of its money selling land to developers, said it had returned to full operations as of Feb. 6. None of the company's assets were damaged and its flagship 41 million square meter plot Sahl Hasheesh development was secure, it said. Baraka Bank (SAUD.CA) Al Baraka Egypt Bank, a Cairo-based Islamic Bank, in which Bahrain's Al Baraka Banking Group (ABG) (BARKA.BH) has a controlling stake, said it had returned to full operation. Marivdive & Oil Service (MOIL.CA) The CFO of the Middle East's biggest oil services company by fleet size said it had been operat-ing normally. "We have no country risk or currency risk because Maridive is a dollar-dominated company."

13


EGYPT Macro, Sectors & Selec ve Corporates Ini al Paper on Impact of Recent Events

14

Sectors / Companies Reuters Last YTD % Yr. Yr. Market Cap % Free Weight Weight DY (%) Prices are in EGP unless stated otherwise Code Price Change High Low (EGP mn) Float in EGX in Focus 2009 2010 2009 2010 EGX30 .EGX30 5,647 ▼20.9 7,248 5,628 205,756 44 100% 69.8% 12.8 10.4 3.1 4.7 Jazira Securities Focus Companies ▼17.4 294,679 38 NI 100.0% 12.6 10.2 3.7 5.1 Banking & Finance ▼19.7 63,494 60 37.1% 34.5% 16.0 15.0 2.8 3.6 Ahli Investment and Development AFDI 10.6 ▼31.8 23.9 10.2 211 37 NI 0.1% 58.1 32.6 - - Commercial International Bank* COMI 36.5 ▼22.9 47.7 27.5 21,534 90 21.3% 17.4% 14.5 13.0 2.0 2.3 Citadel Capital* CCAP 7.1 ▼22.7 9.7 5.7 3,543 44 NI 1.4% 35.7 n/a - - Credit Agricole Egypt Bank CIEB 13.2 ▼15.7 16.5 10.0 3,774 21 NI 0.7% 11.0 10.1 8.4 8.3 EFG-Hermes Holding* HRHO 26.4 ▼21.4 37.3 25.0 10,111 74 8.2% 6.7% 19.3 11.8 3.8 9.5 Egyptian Kuwaiti Holding (USD)* EKHO 1.3 ▼25.4 2.2 1.2 5,986 79 5.3% 4.3% 7.2 11.5 0.9 0.6 Naeem Holding (USD) NAHO 0.4 ▼20.0 0.6 0.3 700 52 NI 0.3% n/a 38.6 - - National Development Bank DEVE 4.2 ▼29.1 7.1 3.7 726 31 NI 0.2% n/a n/a - - National Societe Generale Bank NSGB 42.8 ▼13.3 52.5 26.8 15,678 22 NI 3.0% 14.3 14.0 2.7 2.9 Pioneers Holding* PIOH 2.5 ▼23.1 7.2 2.4 1,230 34 0.5% 0.4% 14.1 20.1 14.2 4.0 Construction & Related ▼18.0 92,196 33 27.5% 27.2% 13.5 10.6 4.3 5.6 Aracemco CERA 27.9 ▼10.8 35.0 17.0 697 24 NI 0.2% 10.4 7.7 7.2 7.2 ASEC Company for Mining ASCM 9.0 ▼28.6 22.7 8.8 316 31 NI 0.1% 22.7 11.9 - - Egyptian Electrical Cables* ELEC 0.7 ▼24.5 1.4 0.7 367 88 0.4% 0.3% 7.0 7.8 6.8 6.1 Egyptian for Developing Building Materi-als* EDBM 13.7 ▼40.3 77.4 12.6 59 72 NI 0.0% n/a 163.8 - -

Ezz Aldekhela Steel IRAX 658.6 ▼16.1 1,130 621 8,802 9 NI 0.7% 15.9 10.5 5.6 7.6 Ezz Steel Rebars* ESRS 15.9 ▼19.1 26.0 15.0 8,654 35 3.3% 2.7% 106.5 21.3 - - Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC 60.0 ▼14.2 105 56 2,400 40 NI 0.9% 6.3 5.8 5.0 8.6 Misr Cement (Qena) MCQE 101.5 ▲0.5 121.0 75.1 3,034 20 NI 0.5% 8.4 6.7 9.8 12.0 Orascom Construction Industries* OCIC 227.1 ▼21.1 295 215 47,444 38 20.1% 16.4% 19.1 15.2 4.4 5.3 Sinai Cement SCEM 45.6 ▼5.2 58.5 38.3 3,192 30 NI 0.9% 4.9 4.9 8.8 12.2 South Valley Cement* SVCE 3.8 ▼25.8 8.1 3.6 1,867 24 0.5% 0.4% 12.3 8.8 - - Suez Cement SUCE 34.2 ▼10.0 48.0 29.0 6,221 19 NI 1.1% 4.9 4.5 9.5 11.1 Sewedy Cables* SWDY 45.7 ▼14.7 63.8 39.3 7,861 33 2.9% 2.3% 12.6 9.3 - 1.6 Paint & Chemicals Industries PACH 47.1 ▼12.8 58.0 40.7 942 58 NI 0.5% 11.4 6.8 7.4 11.7 Upper Egypt Contracting* UEGC 0.9 ▼26.2 2.5 0.8 340 92 0.3% 0.3% 7.7 6.0 - 10.9 Durable Goods ▼10.2 7,253 26 NI 1.7% 20.3 12.5 2.8 4.6 Ghabour Auto AUTO 39.1 ▼10.1 55.0 25.0 5,041 27 NI 1.2% 27.3 17.0 2.6 4.1 Olympic Group OLGR 36.8 ▼10.3 42.9 23.5 2,212 25 NI 0.5% 12.8 7.7 3.4 5.8

PER (x)

Source: price data from Reuters & Jazira Capital Es mates


EGYPT Macro, Sectors & Selec ve Corporates Ini al Paper on Impact of Recent Events

15

Sectors / Companies Reuters Last YTD % Yr. Yr. Market Cap % Free Weight Weight PER (x) Prices are in EGP unless stated otherwise Code Price Change High Low (EGP mn) Float in EGX in Focus 2009 2010 2009 2010 Food & Related ▼5.1 16,240 22 0.3% 3.1% 13.2 11.2 6.3 6.4 Ajwa for Food Industries * AJWA 2.6 ▼23.3 17 3 264 38 NI 0.1% 3.0 4.2 - - Abu Kier Fertilizers ABUK 197.3 ▲0.2 235 179 9,960 13 NI 1.2% 11.0 9.2 8.1 9.8 Egypt for Poultry* EPCO 2.5 ▼35.5 5.7 2.4 116 94 0.1% 0.1% 31.0 22.2 - - Egyptian Financial & Industrial EFIC 15.6 ▼16.4 26.0 14.5 1,082 54 NI 0.5% 42.0 18.2 - - Juhayna Food Industries JUFO 5.5 ▼8.8 6.5 1.0 3,973 27 NI 1.0% 27.0 24.5 4.3 - International Agricultural Products IFAP 4.8 ▼8.9 8.5 3.9 359 47 NI 0.2% 139.7 164.3 - - National Co. for Maize Products* NCMP 16.4 ▼17.9 23.8 13.5 485 34 0.2% 0.1% 7.8 6.7 11.2 12.2 Real Estate & Related ▼25.5 32,377 40 11.4% 11.6% 13.6 8.5 0.6 0.8 Amer Group AMER 1.9 ▼34.0 3.0 1.7 3,961 19 NI 0.7% 7.9 7.5 - - Cairo Housing* ELKA 4.7 ▼24.4 8.8 4.1 441 64 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 10.2 7.1 9.3 Egyptian Resorts Company* EGTS 1.5 ▼24.0 3.1 1.4 1,596 43 0.8% 0.6% n/a 1596.0 - - Heliopolis Housing HELI 18.3 ▼25.5 26.6 16.1 2,040 23 NI 0.4% 23.1 15.1 3.6 5.6 Nasr City Housing MNHD 23.8 ▼24.3 37.0 21.5 2,381 46 NI 1.0% 22.6 18.5 3.4 4.1 Palm Hills Development Company* PHDC 4.9 ▼22.5 7.0 4.3 5,105 35 2.0% 1.6% 10.7 5.8 - - Real Estate Dev. for National Banks* NRPD 15.4 ▼38.8 39.4 12.8 60 99 NI 0.1% 26.5 16.8 3.2 4.4 Remco for Touristic Villages Construction* RTVC 2.9 ▼31.0 7.2 2.8 721 25 NI 0.2% 4.0 3.6 - - SODIC* OCDI 80.6 ▼24.1 117.0 72.0 2,924 60 1.9% 1.6% n/a 16.2 - - T M G Holding* TMGH 6.5 ▼24.1 8.7 6.0 13,146 45 6.4% 5.3% 11.9 7.7 - - Telecom, Media & IT ▼14.9 60,736 30 19.5% 16.2% 9.0 7.8 3.7 7.0 Mobinil* EMOB 133.2 ▼18.8 242.5 125.0 13,321 27 4.0% 3.2% 7.1 9.8 7.1 7.1 Egyptian Media Production City* MPRC 4.2 ▼24.2 9.7 4.0 789 20 NI 0.1% 10.3 9.1 - - Orascom Telecom Holding* ORTE 3.6 ▼16.0 7.9 3.5 18,989 48 10.1% 8.2% 10.3 6.3 - 9.7 Raya Holding RAYA 4.4 ▼25.9 7.3 4.2 272 61 NI 0.1% 6.6 5.5 5.2 7.3 Telecom Egypt* ETEL 16.0 ▼11.6 20.6 14.9 27,364 18 5.4% 4.4% 9.4 8.4 4.7 5.3 Textile & Related ▼18.7 6,108 37 0.7% 2.0% 15.2 8.8 3.9 3.9 Alexandria Spinning & Weaving SPIN 1.3 ▼30.6 2.0 1.2 373 38 NI 0.1% 24.7 1.8 4.0 76.0 Arab Cotton Ginning* ACGC 3.1 ▼29.8 6.4 2.9 834 63 0.6% 0.5% 36.0 22.9 - - Arab Polvara Spinning & Weaving Co.* APSW 2.4 ▼36.4 5.2 2.3 226 69 0.2% 0.1% n/a n/a - - Arafa Holding (USD) AIVC 0.6 ▼18.9 0.7 0.5 887 32 NI 0.3% 15.4 6.0 - - Nasr Clothes & Textiles (Kabo) KABO 0.8 ▼32.8 1.9 0.7 264 37 NI 0.1% n/a n/a - - Nile Cotton Ginning NCGC 11.3 ▼31.0 17.6 10.5 596 70 NI 0.4% 23.0 n/a - - Oriental Weavers ORWE 32.5 ▼5.0 37.3 25.7 2,928 21 NI 0.6% 8.7 9.0 7.6 7.6 Oil Related ▼6.8 16,276 25 3.6% 3.6% 10.8 9.3 7.6 8.6 Alexandria Minerals Oil Company AMOC 49.1 ▲12.0 58.5 37.1 4,225 20 NI 0.8% 10.2 8.5 8.2 8.2 Maridive & Oil Services (USD)* MOIL 3.1 ▼14.3 4.0 2.5 5,321 31 1.9% 1.5% 12.8 15.6 4.5 3.7 Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals* SKPC 12.8 ▼10.0 15.8 9.7 6,731 23 1.7% 1.4% 9.9 7.5 9.8 12.7

DY (%)

Source: price data from Reuters & Jazira Capital Es mates

16

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Egypt: The Wind & Head Wind of Change