EffectsIMP_Mar1986

8/8/2019 EffectsIMP_Mar1986

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The Effects of Inflation on

Commercial Banks

G. J. Santoni

EOPLE disagree about tI_ic effect of ti_ic recent

decline it_i in_iflation on U.S. financial institutions.

Some claim ti_iat the sudder_i drop in inflatior_i ... pttt

ti_ic countrys wi_iole credi t structure tinder gi-eat

strains tl_iat ate becon_iing in_i c:r-easingly appar-en_it.One t_if ti_ic more in_iportant in_idicators of ti_ic strain,

aecot-dit_ig to thus ai-gut_i_ient, is ti_ic in ct-ease in_i h_iaruk

failu i-es -~Other-s argue [b_iat flr_iai_icial iristitu tb_in_is i_iave

been tI_ic t_ienieflciaries of disinflation_i an_id fallir_ig miter-

est rates, point ing ott I tb_iat con_i_i met-cial bar_ikean-nings

in_icreased as ti_ic in_iflation_i rate fell:

fl_is ar-tide discusses the effect of inflation on con_i_i

ti_ieiciai bar_iks l_iy analyzir_ig the r-elation_iship between_i

ir_iflation_i an_id ti_ic market value of bank capital.

tn_ifiation is an_i in_icrease it_i ti_ic gener-al pr-ice level-

and is typically expressed as an anr_iual pen-cer_itage

rate of chat_ige. For example. the C N P della tot- I one

ir_idex of tb_ic general pnce level I rose fron_i_i 1.00 it_i 1982

to 1.038 in 1983. ti_icr_i in_i(~l()-ts(~(1to 1.081 in 1984. In-

flation averaged 3.8 per-cer_i t d n_i ring 198283 an_it i al_iou

4.1 percent dur-in_ig 198384. hi_ic aver-age an_inual -ate

oven the twoyear in_i Lerval was aho inn 3.9 Imncen_i [,4

3See Corporate Earnings Uneven (1985).

~Thereare various methods of computing average annual rates ofchange. The method employed in this paper assumes continuouscompounding. The rates are calculated by dividing the differencebetween the natural logarithms of the price level at the two points intime by the number of intervening years and multiplying by 100.

Ln_iflatiot_i depneciates ti_ic value of n_ion_icy. Ar_i in_iflation_i rate of4.0 percenit n_iean_is tl_iat I i_ic doliar falls in

vaitie at ar_i an_ir_i ual rate of 4.0 pet-cen_iI it_i tet-r_ius of ti_icgoods it will buy.

Inflation_i is in_i_ipo tar_it for ban ks t_iecause Lb_iey typi-

cally deal in_i nominal tir_iat_iciai iris tr-un_icr_its, that is,

ir_istn-un_iuents denominated in fixed dollar amounts,

For exan_iple, wl_ien a bar_ik makes a Ic_ian_i. it accepts

r_iomir_iai fli_iar_icial instrur_i_ients (notes, r_i_ior-tgages,

con_ir_i_iercial paper ar_id other mnruar_icial sectrritiesl as

evidence ofthe del_itons ol_iuigation_i to the har_ik. t-%l_ien_i a

harnk bon-r-ows. it issues r_ion_i_iinal lin_iai_icial ir_istri_intents

to creditors Ideposit hiatfihities, acceptances and dcI_ier_itun-esl as eviden_ice of its ohligatiot_i

While n_iornir_ial fin_ian_iciai insfn-trrner_its differ from or_ic

an_ioti_ier in_i mann respects - tb_icy si_ian-u one ir_i_iportan_ici ran-ar:teristic: tl_ieir payn_ier_i Is are (ixed in_i riun_iir_ial

value. tb_iaI is, ir_i tern_is of dollars, N_in_i_iin_ial it_istnur_i_ients

n_iake up tb_ic l_iulk of i_iar_ik assets an_id liahilit inns, Fur

LI_ier-n_iore, b_iar_iks are tv~_iicaIlvi_iet cr-editors it_i nonnin_ial

inst rurr_ierits because their- nominal assets exceed

their r_ion_iin_iai lial_iilities I see appendix I for- a theoreti-

cal explanation

See Alchian and Kessel (1977a) and Kessel (1956). of course,banks have real assets and liabilities as well (land. buildings, officeequipment, equities. etc.). These, however, make up a very smallportion of bank portfolios and are irrelevant in assessing the effect ofinflation on banks.

G. 2 Sanfoni isa senior economistat theFederalReserveBankof St.

Louis, ThomasA. Pollmannprovided research assistance.

See Shaky Credit Structure (1985).Ibid.


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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF St. LOUIS MARCH 1986

Tal_ibe I uses data fronu ti_ic cor_isotidated t_iatanc:e

siucet ofdon_iesticahly chartered con_i_in_iercial b_iar_iks to

iiluslrate tt_ieir- net position_i in_i r_ionninal in_istr-un_iuer_its.

Non_i_iin_iai assets arc calculated t_iy sub_itn-acting ti_ic val-

ues of l_iar_ik premises, c_itt_it-nt- real estate owned, tb_ic

equities ofofl_ien- firm_i_is owi_ied, andl in_ivestn_ien_it in_i sub

siclianies from total assets. Ihese itt ru_is ares ubtn-actedh_iecause ti_ic n_iar-ket prices c_if real assets vary dir-cc:tlv

witl_i ti_ic I_iric:e level. Noru_iin_iai liabilities are tb_ic stir_i_i n_if

total deposits, sub_ion-dit_iatcd t_iotcs an_id del_ien_iIures.

federal funds pun-chased, inter-es tbearin_ig den_itar_id

notes, r_i_ior-tgage ir_idebtedn_iess. all otl_iet- liabilities for

i_ion-i-owed ru_ic_in_icy an_id ti_ic value _if prcferred stc_ick.

Prefer-red stoc:k, whici_i is sir_i_iitar to a i_ic_in_id, is ir_icluded

as a n_ionu_iin_ial hal_iihty because it is at_i ol_iligation_i of tb_ic

hank to pay a fixed strean_i of dIoliars.

ti_ic tab_Ic I data it_idicate that - in ti_ic) aggregate, ti_ic

i_ionu_iinal assets of ti_icsc l_ianks exceed ti_icir non_i_iin_ial

liab_iulities. The excess c_ifn_ion_iun_iat assets c_iver non_i_iinaltiabilities an_iour_its to 663 percen_it c_ifb_ian_ik capital.

At_i in_icrease in_i anticipated inflation_i raises li_ic r_ioi_i_ii

nal interest rate. tbuis in_icr-eases tb_ic n_iunnbcr of dollars

that cr-editor-s Or dei_itors who ar-c transacting in_i n_ion_i_i

n_iai flnuan_it:iai instrun_ier_its expect tc_i rece.ive or pay

when boar_is r_iuature (see si_iadeci inscrtl. IftI_iese expec-

tations arc realized, all r_iomin_ial values will he b_uglierat n_iatur-ity. Table 2 shows ti_is effect or_i ti_ic hahn_icc

si_ieet of a t_iypoth_ietical hank. ti_ic exan_ipic assumesthat alt ofti_ic hanks b_iorrc_iwir_ig ar_id len_icling conutractswere negotiated with ti_ic expectation_i tb_iat ti_ic rate (If

inflatic_ir_i oveI tb_it) r_iext two year-s would 1_ic 3.0 percent -

li_ie I_ian_iks loan_i con_i tracts have a twoyear life. its

l_iorowing contracts n_iatirre at ti_ic end of cad_i year

and are renegotiated at ti_ic existin_ig in_iterest r-ate.

Reserve rcquiren_i_ients agait_ist all deposits are 10.0

percent -

Fon sin_ipticity, ti_ic real in_iten-est rate is assturuuecl to I_ic

zero so ti_ic nominai in_i [enest r-atc on_i I_ia n_ik loan_is is 5.0

percen_it? li_ic ir_itet-est n-ate on_i I_ian_ik depc_isits is 4.5

tThis calculation should be considered as illustrative only, since book

values rather than market values are used.

As above, capital excludes outstanding preterred stock.

Table 1

Net Nominal Assets of All CommercialBanks (in billions of dollars)

Nornnnal assets tota assets real assets

Total assets $2,681 0Less real assets-

Equity ownership nm_i other firms $107Bank premnses 39 7Investment nn subsrdnartes 1,9Real estate other than pren_irse 6,9 592

Nomrnal assets $2,621 &

Nornnnal Irabilrtres total Irabrlrtles preferred stockTotal ltabrltties $2504 5Preferred stock 1 0

Nomnnal Iiabrlitres $2,505 5

Net nomnnal assets nomnnat assets nomrnal Inabrlntnes

Nomrnal assets $2,621.8Nornnnal llabnintres 2 5055

Net nominal assets $ 116,

Net nomnnah assets a a percent of equity 663%

NOTE Data are as of thrrd quarter 1985All bank Irabrllties are nominalSOURCE Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

pet-cur_it li_it sprc ad bet_i_i cnn_i ti_ic h_ian_ik s b_ion_i-os_i rig

ar_id tn n_iclin_ig r utcs is r_icn e san ~ cot_i_ipcr_isal ron_i ft_in ti_ic

r-equbrenu_icnt to i_iold i_ion tt_itd rust-c ar-r_iun_ig t c 5cr_i cs

I set appendix 11. All assets and liabilities arc aluccl at

n_i_iar-ket pr it es so ass( t s nu_iinuus hat_iilitics or t apita I

r-epr usun_its the market _i,nlue c_if tl_i( i_iar_ik 5200, in_i this

cxanuple. li_ic get_icr-al ic_i el of prices ns 1 0 in_i panel \.

Par_ic] B si_in_i_i s ti_ic b_ialar_ice si_icet ot ti_ic t_iank at ti_ic

un_id of Li_ic fit-st can ,nssu ru_i in_ig tl_ial ti_ic an_i ticrpatcd

ir_itlatin_in_i is cc nlhn d tr_id that r_iotl_iing else l_ias oct rtnr ed

to ci_ian_igc Il_ic act n_itt nut b_ialar_in n 5. it c I uted ir_itc i e t on

deposit hahihities is 15 wi_itt _iO intent sn l_ias ac( r-rtn ct

on_i han_ik loan_is. A blot-tic_in_i of ti_ic b_iar_ik 5 it_iter est e irn_i

in_igs IS4.~0I n_i_itt t b_ic added to resers-es to (0_i (I ti_in

inn n-ease in_i deposits the r _ion_i_iit_iai _ialuc c_il i_iar_ik capi-

tal b_its in_ic rcasc ci tn_i S9 10.00, hurt its i-cal al on is ut_i

ciuan_iged I 00.001.

i stn_iunlar rc suit oct urs nt_i par_ic i C wI_inch_i shun_i_i_is ti_in

l_ialar_ice sheet at tb_ic- (rich r_if ti_in sc (on_id yr ar ti_in

antic ipat( d in_ida tin_in_i l_ias i_io i cal cfiec t n_it_i ti_ic

i_ianks n apital ,nn_id ti_icr cfor c, on_i ti_in tic-ti ti_i c_il its

stockh_ic_ildens.

The assumption about the meal rate has no qualitative effect on theresults, See appendix I -


3/12

Forecasli ng inflation ilnlh-ipa led h!flahIon ;md InterestHaIrs

iii, nornninnal ir,lr-rr,,t i-ate, qnruln-ni ri

rinan-kr-is air tlnrnir:il nil nm j)Iurrt~-,s nit cornlrartinlM

- lntiei,n.ted anil IInanlielpated InnTh n-i-il burro_i_i i-n-s arid In-riders I Inc_i indicate lu-

I:I/1&ston inLinriI)n-n ni cir,Ihrns ti,~ I_irlinnl_i_ini rinrr,l ~_i in, linec-nr-di[inin ti_ic irrtirrr in c_ir-Inanit~nbc a r4nrn Horn

\lain_i rcnnnoninrr trains.ir Linirn., re jrnn~-a rniriniinit her nil Iir~n~IrinnlLrns if hn,rinr_i_in-i,, and tinnier,,

rnrnnt to vsrin;rnrs~r inunnc_i at ~uninr lunlurn- tinrrr-. vnpecl tinevaItneoi ihvdr,Ii_,n to dcpi_iciatr- inn emIts

n-trill train returns rrn ,r gnrnnri nzrinipir cii thus rnIlinn-Mcnt,ris it s_uI Irnr_inn_ir-rihn- IuIccni Urn mci Ic

Sniir-t inliatinnin rc-riLnres tint- ltutrrni_iainrn- nil inirinics in ttnnv aritninpate uihrtinnii tin- iiorurrun~ni inIr-ir-~t al,-

pa_s , people hour nciterituri ircimio_i_icm, rind hnnhn-, pn-r-ilnnni rn inn inn;nnn cr,nitn-ant ill t,rkt ~ictnirrnlt ultm try Inn tminnca,,t j,niinujori rn,c-r tin- nuir~anit lime this Urn- irlrVn c-si rain xviiI hr srriIir-ir-inni~ blair tin

prrinnci. I ins itnrr-tast i. calir-ni airtu-i;mu-il ruiuiationn roninpi-iisatc or tiii c_i1

nrntrd rlc1

nun-rurtirnnn ill liii

\.s 11w nlirrlin- ,.trggr~Ls rnticrpaic-d nunliatirnrn is _iznlrrr- iii line dollar.

hnnwanni-Iriukinnc_t it is ti,, air nil ctn;rrigc ni nbc- - - -- - - - irr rIlnnsnuatc-. sunppnk~e ibm real nnitin-,,t r,rui is 1

c_(rnnnl-aI prrr li-ti-i ti_ian pi-riplc- itinmiI~ s_uI ricrrnn - - -- -. - Inn-r-crunr arid urn- antrcuinanr-ri n-ate nil uniliainrrmi mn_irnriurunig tunnie ~pr-n-uiur-irntrunc hum priunnd - - - -

- ttrt- r-m,niuniiMvn.in ts.Iurrr it inrniilr- tiniinI~thai it

Mi r-tnunnsn. Urn- airrinUv nI iniliulimnin ln,rcrrsis di s_rh Iakn- SI 05 unit _ie,rr Iionn rio_i_i In; prrncin;rsr- lint-

ir-niris tint irnlrnu-r- n-_ic-ills arid i-in nrinusr;runrcs that mr gtionis tirat St_tIll s_i ill inn__i lucia_i \ man cii

uukunrinnn s_un-n_i hr mini-cast is uihrrir- C cninsn Oil, Vial s_il ir-rirrn- a ia_inicunt tnt sillS! SI)nun-mu_i. itnr-,c- innr-n-r-zrsis_dr-nrmr.iIl__i ~~ili jr _ivi-n,nnc_ st titilI_uuu) t 03 1(1:; at mnnaffln il_i linis innnphies a

\ui_i-dilirnr-nnrrhcn_ivcunn irhrn~ri nnrmnzrli,id irnllatiunr unuinjuiai nnilrnnst rare nil S i_i jilt,- nit .1 lit auntie!

aiiri anrtiripatr-ni initiation is raNtni ninao!u-:paur! pair-ni real saline ol tiiisrrnniunnt ii ninatrrniiv is 1.030

nrnlhruioni tnnannnit-ipatr-d iiiiairnnmn is knnrn_i_in, ornt_i SiOStitI i_ti_S. nhichisthrsninnnuitinc1

nrinncipal

s_inn inindsigirt On-rausu it n,, Lunnns_iir un1

iIlr-r nbc- .si.uicirh mini tin,- neal julio-nt S3tl

1 j,ia\, run n_nh- ri pn-ople 5 dncn,itnils it i

rnri1nunhmnnt lirn_i_ir-_in-n iii asst-ssinig _isinrnini-n ihn tinti- __, -

- ace F-rsrner P96-at. pp. 1 Ott who melt_it_is the r:om.rrul rnterest~untiL-~inninnltrir-cI pr_tInts cli irisas r~!r_i r no thee; are r~nrrnterest r Vu-. r ann he ar r:-naee ale

ret rnla.ro-n. ic- a-i tollnws

- lrlic-(

rr si_icrs r1ype~hesrs req ,nrd rnq I he tom - atror_i ot the rorll in ~.nI rnSn:mn Al~bna-_i arc A-en 197/I.0 490 i ~rC-vrrote th.ct trnc-uqt. nun est marc s ann cnpnrnn-l_iaflon no li-c true r,l-fl,orrh p-i gnui-c.r.ames am qrver- In- nt auurn crc-eprnq. aal:op--_i-; nimwav and ms-n ore-nrunns ano the c-truer oF taxes on i_itcr~sn :-_ieorrre al-ih-ipa r rr ~.c~0 strnc~on s tic-nw Ce ri 1 n,nhcrpanc-a and annc, ass r res that the antcr.aie-- rat- 01 nVair en r s he: - I virn ct-rn ~-my~-atedrnf-arnr, See Darhy (19/5) arid Kncbc_i (1981) in_ic ox ,nir, -cecil r,-ntc Is the- - rnrenrunr i terri-nuol rrir goods tha- r recrurs n-xpcna receive

Er Cr in, beo _i0Jr~uts In in a ho r vrorn tin In - - - - - - land hnrrowcrs expect to pail express--ni as a nc-cen:aqn Cl rhowrl: nit co._i srsm-_itly over-rn cicerp-eo-ct w-c, turer,,rs.c wrl! e - - -

un_irascd a c E ie 1 )a4 OF 3b ~/ I au r HO/I 213 on-itt al on hi lu I Sne F ahcn 9n a rd n en d 5nona-_icr_i-rn-a I - 97O~kr rr.scussrons -if ?usrncss rtnres-qr_in cm ci r 98l, fur orsu I srors at n~rual ma-c ci nt, estcu parkers. ~ 15 ,c~oai 505 _ioouO, 1~-oo

lhiit is s_i bin-rn lirnil.

tainitri tir-r-hinnn-s

nnnsiints r inrrinntrin_iI m-srrun1nln iii

Ii tin, :n.rlr_rnI ri, ni nnnli.irn,nr i_innnil, lint- _rlltin I I hr ,rsrriir1nlu,nin,, rn n_nh, rnr iii, .,rrinr- r, ti,,,,, mr

riI- Itsi-i tins nisirn rrnnr-\ntulntii_i lint t;rtnit c_intInt tinrr nrn,1

iir- nIl ,rrrnr r.,nrl in_i , Iii nt-n

trnln_iunnn t,ti innnrur,n- iii lint- nit- ln~iirrirr, 1 illi I-ilit nun rii,t- in lint1

nirtt In_il rn rim iin.,i _iirn Ilin

In tint u_in-iimnnci _i,nI,nn ri inrrlin t_irnunjnir r.sirrirts lin~iitim- strr1

nrr,n- s irrirrjnnrInti r,:

Iinnrui,i,ri r,nls ,ninni lrninriilir, inn ittim itinn, i, I it n iris - I run n L iii - t\i~11~nil nrini inn ii 5 inn

rrnnnnirnnal rriirnririmnnl,, in.rnrl n_i_mu-n- lo-,n- s_it-altir _i_ilmnrn S--n-Ki_~ru-_ lni - mc IA 19 in_il Ant-nm -n_ic K --I 19,/c.,


4/12

Table 2The Effect of an Anticipated Inflation of 5~OPercentPanel A The current balance sheet. The price level is 1 0

Assets Lnabnl,tnes-

Reserves $ 100.00 Deposnts $1,000.00Loans and securitnes 1 000.00 Capntal 20000Premrses 100.00 $1,200 00

$1 200.00

Panel a The balance sheet one year hence. The price level rs 1.05.

Assets Liabnlit,es

Reserves $ 104 50 Deposrts $1,045.00Loans an_id securntnes I 045.50 Capntal 21000Premrses 105 00 $1,25500

$1,255 00

Reat value of aprtal $21011 05 $200

Panel C: The balance sheet two years hence The price evet is 11025

Assets. LrabrtntnesReserves $ 109.20 Deposrts $1,092 02Loans ar_id secunitnes 1 093 07 Capital 220 50Premises 110.25 $1,312.52

$131252

Real value of capital $220 511 1025 $200

one tinneoniv dc_i ration nn the piin e Ic_in I sn_i that the Pan_ieI ( shows thebat_ik s balanin n sheet tt ti_ic c,_id of

in flat_ion toe ecast for tb_ic sn-n ond yc _ir ret_it tin_is at a .0 the sen ond year I he n_i ai vat ue of ti_in hai_ik n c-mains atSI 95 45, indnn ating that the onetime u_flationaiv 5nii

- - - pn use pr-odun s a pen mann nit r-educ tiun ni_i the realPant i If shows the eflnc t of the unan tic) pated u_i -

- - - _ialuc of ti_ic- har_ik n _imn thouhi_i ti_ic- n-ate of nn_iuiation in_iflat_ion I he hank s n_iomrnal a -sets an_in I I rabnlflies art

- - - suhsequer_i t years cnt tin n_is to 5 0 per n c-nt.nnalfen tncl by t l_ie rnfhn tronanV sunpctsn the ri_in nc ase

in_i ti_in sn_i nbollan valties is tn~edtn_i, cc_in_ittact li_i t on_it rast,

ti_ic non_i_iut_iai sat tie of Il_ic bank s real assn ts, the prern

ises mt teases by thn rc alizn d n-ate of in_iflat non_i 10.0

penn er_it. ti_ic nor_i_iun_iaI _ial_inc- of c apitai _in-n-easn 5 ti-ui_i_i \ t_iank s non_in in_iaI finai cial assn ts and h,ni )ilit nc-s ty~_i

200 tn_i ) Ia. I hc satt re i_ifti_ic bank in_i U rn_ins ol ti_in real tally matui-e at cfitfn-r-en t ntatn s. \t in_is gi_i c_i_i n_i_ion_icr_itgot_iris in_in wi_iint_i it n an he exn-hai ign_id i_iowc Sen , dn ti_ic n_iatur-itv clatns ot a batik s assel S gen_ic r-alI~nc_ir ni_id

lines tn_i 195 45. 1 he un_iar_itic rpatc d h_ifiat ion n-_nuses beyond t t_iose n_if its I iahihties In_i c_itt_in r 5% on nis an

ti_ic real sat uc- of the bank tn_i fall by 4,~_i,

More precnsehy the duratnon of the banks recenpt stream cxc edsthe duratnon of 1 payment stream For d,scuss,ons of duratron see

An unantncnpated decrease nIh pnrce level produces ymmetnncal Samuelson (1945), p. 19 Bnerwag K utman and Toev (1983)result In that the real wealth of bank owners, ,ncroased Mansel and Jacobson (1978) and Santonn (1984)


5/12

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OP ST. LOUIS MARCH 1986

Table 3

The Effect of an Unanticipated Inflation

Panel A The current balance sheet The price level is 1 0

Assets Lnabnlntnes.Reserves $ 10000 Deposnls $1,000 00Loans and secunntnes I 000.00 CapitalS 200.00Premnses 10000 $1 .200.00

$1 200.00

Nomin I asseis nomina, inebilitie ($ 00 -- $1,000)$1,000 $100

Real value of capital $200/1 .0 $200

Panel B: The balance sheetone year hence The price level is 1.10.

Assets LnabrintiesReserves $ 104.50 Deposnt $1,045.00

Loans and secuntnes 1,045.50 Capntal: 215.00Pnemises 10.00 $1,260.00

$h260.00

Real v lueof capital $21511 10 $19545

Panel C; The balance sheet two years hence The price level is 1.155.

Assets L,ab,lntnesReserves $ 109.20 Deposits $1 092.02Loans and ecunties 1,093.07 Caprtal~ 225.75Premises 11550 $1 317.77

$1 317.77

Real value of capital $225 75 1.155 $195.45

in_itenist ntte ci_iar_igc a I ten ts ti_in r_ia~it_ic-i_it sIr-ear_i_i c_itnl i r_ic_ii_i_iui_ial tn_itencst n alc n_in_i t_iar_ik c api tal It_in es -tn_in pie

gatnd l_iv tI_ic l_ian_ik s tiat_iulit ic-s t_ielon-c it altec Is [I_in assu n_i_ic s thc_i in_i Icr_i st rate in_innvasns I_ic-c-a_insc an_i tic i

i_it_ink s n-c-c cipt s tn-can_i_i. ( o_i_ise ltici_it N, an_i it_in n-nasn- in_i l_iaI ccl in_iflatin_in_i nt_ic ceases. Il_in cpnalitatisc c-ftc n t it ins

ti_i i_i_itt n-cst rate i-c dcrc-es ti_ic- e.,1

_iecteci n_ic I stnean_in ot tn a tent i_iv tl_ic c- can_i_il_Ic i_iovs ns ci nc-stilts In oi_i_i ti_ic

dollar n-n-c- i _ii s as tI_ic har_iks c necfih_irs icr_ic otiate Ic_ir n lia_i_ige in_i ti_ic in tc tn-st n ate n c gar-c I Icss c_il s-c b_ia I i_in _i

the b_ingl_ien u_i ten est n-atc, vs i_i i in I I_in it_i tcn-c-s t n-at n ear r_iecl dun cd ti_ic c t_iangc -

i_ic tI c- ban_ik c_it_i its exist in_ig ic_ian_is is tn_inked tnt_i Of . -. - -In_i ti_its nxai_i_ipln a_i_itnc nt_ialn-nl ir_illntnnu_i at ti_in tin_inc It_icc_iursc ti_in Ic_ian_is c sen_it n_ialI_i n_iaI ii n ar_id are nc-n_ic-got n - - -

- - 1_ian _ik U_i r rally n n_in_itn ac ts wn ti_i its n nnfntc_ins an_id cInt_itn_in satcd at ti_in t_iigl_ic-r i_ic_in_i rn_ia! natc - t_ini I ti_ic l_ian_ik s c a~_i_itaI . - is al_i i_icr-n c-n_it I i_ic han_ik s c-c_in_it n rets nv_itt_i its c iccli tn_in-sis mccl tic cd n_in_it_inn I_ic lcss - - -

ni_ia r nun _in_i u_i_ic vc-an s_i. 1_i_Ic nts I t~cn_isr_i_iat tn n at ti_in en_id

c_if ti_ic cc c_in_itt ynar an_id c annot Inn n en_ingot matcd tnc4c_ir

n_i)atnin-uty

Fat c 4 illcisl n ates tint cftec t c_if a n-I_i-ir_ige u_i Il_in- \s rn_i li_in l_ir_i_ihiot ns cxai_i_i1

_ilc-s, Il_in t_ian_ik s Ic) ri_is ar_id


6/12

Table 4

The Effect of a Change in Anticipated InflationPanel A: The current balance sheet. The price level is 1.0.

Assels I nub--lies

r4osr-rves S 100 00 Depusts S 1 .000.00Loans and securities 1.000 00 capntal 200 00Prenrnnsrs 1 00 51 .200.00

5m20000 -

Panel B: The balance sheet one year hence. The price level is 1.05.

Assets L nat_inlnlnesResc-rvc-s S 104 SO Dcnpusnts 5 Ote 01)Loans and securnlies 1 .045.50 ~apnIal :1000Prcrnnses .H~ 51 255 00

$125300

Real value of caDnia $210 001 05 $20000

Panel C: The balance sheet two years hence. The price level is 1.155.

Assets I. nab,-,fnesReserves $ 11390 Deposits $1 139.0~Loarns annd securnfius 1.09065 Capital 181 00Premises 11550 5132005

51 32005 -

lean value of capita! 5,81.00 1 155 515671

di-1

uisils inn Sl.utnrn I Inn linndnnu_i& iii Is :n rn penn-mt. innnnc-_rsrs Inn I Il iuninnit \l lInn i-Innl nil liir sn-nnnninl stan

lint- Innnmntnssjnni~ nIt I-, 1.5 ni-i-i-i- nt taint-i \ .-,Iinn~~~ lIni~enirpoitss~ilI;innnnntnnnf in,.~l i.i~i1.5 sinil.5

Ilni- ln.nnnk s mmliii inilriun simirt lninrI I sInnn~s- finn I ni~l- I IurIinnnl~ Innns~nsir is ,ntsrnnlnnI mmmi nnninn!4 finn-isbniI il liii mid ml lini Iin.sl siin .rsrmnnninn,~ llnmnI iiilinrsl rim mm is i\islinl!_z minus l.nninnn li_i finn-

[inn runli,nrl m-;nlr nil mnnlintinini tlnnninn_i, lii inst sun s~.rs lnnnnis nI iln nunnlnnit I Inism ini_nnn,n rnnnlimnnnn- lrn~nuInl

-~ I Innnt-r-mni. nun ,~nninn a, liii- nniiin-ip.nlm-rI air- pc-nrc-nun In Inn- surrnmnnl sc-rn rn r rung u-innnnnn.~--_ nIs_,uouiinrninu:nlnesc.nn- OItnnnnn-e. ilnr-In,nnnk n--nil

Inunnnnl I slnrnsss [inn linhniinr siirtn ni lu inn! nil inn - - - inns turin:. nil si.,.ni ni lint inn

4nninniin~ mn finn ,mrnnnunl

sn-n-nuninl snin .n~snnlrnlnn,-~Ilnurl liii .nmninnrlnnitnI rim cii -- - su ri I Inn ,i muss It urn is s~!nmn In nrsnil i inn i II n n- nit 1

nnnlknlinmnn sn,- n n-s n-_n-Il nun_rn ri Inn inn in nm-ncr nut

ninftn-r,I rrimnunn:~ lini In.innI nninhnmnnnnI tint Imn,,l sn-ni innliii- tn mnnnnl sr-in. si Inn-limit- tim IiinnI~ -- minim- ~nf liii inn_i~inn-n mnninnn-sl inn inn

nnmni;~nunuilnrI its r mnmntn.nrrs ~~mlInnln1nnismlnuns lint n\nnmn

in rnnnn n-.innnmnn_i_is cml I .n. - ~I_. .,in inn rI sn.nn n-nnnlIn .is.nmnnnn, iin;nt inn n_i.iln.,mtl nnlr- nil ninlinlnnnmn ninnnmn1~ -

lInt sin iinnrl sian nninmcinms tine.snmncn- innnI nln

1niuims nnnunnr,nni ninnnmnn~~ Inn strinnini

I inn- iunn-m-r-.nn inn ,inninm-m1i;rinri nnnll.nlmnnmn n ~nnr.sn-.flit tin snuninu ni lint- in.rnnl , nnnin-nnsl n-mn_inmnn~:, nnnnrsl Inn

rn nisn Inn iii in niil-i- ni mliii inn_i~lint nnd Inn innnnn-.r-_r ntsnnsi-s inn jnnrnnn.n inn ,rnnI tin.sminmnnnl su-nm ssinnln ninn nmnitnnst iii- nun i,nnnl ritjnnn,iis inuusnis mninrnnrnnl, inn Inn.; ~t i.~mrn_s 1.111_S mm - in


7/12

FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 1986

rest_in-yes t_i_iust in_i c~n-c-asc_iInn $1 13.90 c_i_i- t_iv $9.40 = $94.05 (I) ~Ln_i)V/t),= C + aM~n_iy, ~LXLu_ifi tV) -yt-~

X .10). As a n-c_iscr1 t Il_ic- l_ian_iks Ic_iat_i ac-cc_inn_it at yearc_in_id

is $1,090.65 = $1000.00 + $50.00 + $45.50 $4.55

$9.40) - Bank f_inc_in_i_usc_is incm-c_iasn_i in_i n_in_in_i_iin_iaI valun_i I_i) Il_in_i

rc-alizn_inI nalc_i c_if in_ilk_il ic_in_i an_id an_i_ic_inn_it tcn $11 5.50 =

$105.00 >C 1.10) al yc_ianc_in_id. Nc_itc_i tt_iat t_iotl_i ti_ic_i n_cnn_i_i

n_iaI an_id i-c-al value n_if capital dc-c-tin_ic_i. II_ic_i nial valtrc_i c_if

capital falls t_iv $43.29 tn_i $156.71 ) $i81.00/I.155n.

As It_ic- tat_ilc_i 4 c-xan_i_ipic- shows, a cl_ian_igc- h_i ti_in_i

in_i cc_in-c-st naIc- c-an_i I_iasc- a fairly sul_islar_itial c_ilk_ic-I nnn_i II_ic-

l_ian_ik wi_i c-n_i It_ic_i n_i_iatun-itic_is of tI_ic- i_ian_iks assn_its an_id

liat_iilitic_is duffc_in-. tn_i ti_is partuc-cniar exar_iui_ilc_i, ti_ic- n-cal\TaIun_i n_if capital dc-c,Iii_ic_icl l_iy at_ic_i_i_it 22.1) pc-n-cc-n_it whc-nu

tl_ic_i in_i Ic_rest u-alt_i dout_iIn_ici -

Ar_i iu_icrc_iasc- in_i an_iticipated it_iIlatin_iu_i affects l_iau_iks in_i

a way ti_iat is qualilativn_iIy tI_ic- sar_i_ic_i as unnai_i tin,ij_iatc_id

iu_iflatin_in_i. iI_iis is t_ic-causc_i ti_ic_i upward rt_ivisicnr_i ir_i an_itic

ipatc_id inllation_i tI_iat c_iccui-s at It_in_i c-n_id of ti_in_i (mn-st year

was n_ic_it for-c-cast at ti_ic_i bc-gin_in_iin_ig c_ifti_ic- year-. ifpc-n_i~_itn_i

l_iacl au_iticij_iatc_id in_illatic_i_i_i nnf 5.0 pc_in-cc_it_il tI_ic_i fin-st c-ar

an_id 10.0 ~_ic-i_i~c_in_itIt_ic- sn_ic_in_in_id sic-an-, Il_ic_i u-atc_i c_if in_i tn_irc_ist

cnn_i twc_ivc-ai in_ian_is would n_ic_it i_iavc I_ic_in_in_i 5.0 ~_icrc-c_in_it -

RaIl_in_ic-, ii wc_itulcl I_iavn_i t_ic_ic_in_i t_iigi_ic_ii Inn uc_itln_ict It_ic- fact

t_iat at_iticipatc_icI in_ifiai ic_in_i asn_inagc_is 7.2 pc_inc-c_in_it ac_ir-cnss

ti_ic- tsvn_i \c-ars- lit_ian_it icij_iatc_id in_iIlaticnn_i an_id ct_ian_ign_is in_i

a_i_it in_iil_iatc_idl in_itlatic_iu_i I_iasn_i sin_i_i ilan- c_iffi_in,ts i_ic-c_ia risc_i I_in_itt_irelic-cl a n_i_iisgnin_iss at_iou I in~Hatin_in_i -

ln_i n-c-n_i~t~_iti_in_i nn_iair_i i_in_in_its sc_i fan-, tI_in_i l_in_i_isic_ius clisctms

si_inn_i suggests tl_iat in_i flatin_i_i_i affects ti_in_i n-c-al capital

vat_i_ic- c_if t_ian_iks t t_in-n_icngl_i twc_i cl_ian_in_ic-Is - Im-sI, capntal

valn.nc_i falls wI_ic_in_i tI_in_i an_it cal uatc_i cnfin_i tlatinnr_i n_ixcc_in_inls ti_ic-

ai_itici

1

_iatc_id n-ate. Il_is is called tnu_ian_iticipatc_icl in_itlatin_in_i.

Sc-cc_i_i_id, capital value falls wI_ic-n_i Il_ic- an_ituc_imI_iatn_icI ratc_i n_if

in_i Italic_i_i is nc_isusc_id ii pward, 1_ic_ic-a_usc_i I I_is can_isc-s n_cnn_in

n_iai in _itc-n-n_is t naIc-s tc_i _i-isc_i tur_in_ixpc-clc_inlIy. ti_ic_i n-c-vs_in-se

c_icc-un-s if tI_ic-an_itsuat n-ate of in_iflatin_in_i falls si_in_in-t of ti_ic_i

an_i tici1

_iatc_icI ate on ifti_ic_i ai_itiei1

_ia In_ni nate of i i_iflatin_in _i is

nc-vise cI nIc_iwt_iwa nd.

11_ic-sc_i in_i_i~_iticatic_in_is can_i I_ic- n_ixar_i_iin_ic-cI Inn c_itnsn_iu-sin_ig

ti_in_i effect of iu_iulatjc_in_i c_in_i va_ijc_ius in_iclc_ixc_is c_if li_in_i stock

1_im n_is n_if 1_iut_ilicly I nadc_icI l_iau_iks-

SIn_in_ik I_ic-icc-s ann_i tusc_idas a prn_ixy fn_in ti_in_i capital s-~nInrc_i n_ifbar_iks t_ic_in_iausc_i ti_in_iy

nc-1_inc_isn_in_it tI_in_i n_i_iar-kc_it s assc_issn_i_ic_in _it cnf ti_ic_i

1_in-c_isc-n_it

sal cnn_i c_ifti_it_i fu tcnn-c- n_ic_it rn_ic-n_iit_its Inan_iks arc- ~ _in_ic_itc_id Ic_i

gc-i_ic-m-a tn_i -

li_ic- is_ilat ic_iu_ist_i ip t_ieRvc_ic_in_i c_iI_ian_ign_is in_i tI_in_i mn_iai stn_in_ik

;_irin_in_is n_if l_ian_iks an_id ti_in_i c_ill_in_it- variai_iIc_is is assnm_i_ic_id tn_i

takc_i ti_ic_i f_i_inn u si_icnwn_i in_i c_infuat ion_i 1:

= ti_ic_i rc_ial j_ic-ncn_i n_if t_ian_ik sIc_ic-k,

= a c_ic_iu_istan_it,

= c-c-al inn_ion_i_ic_i,

=

It-_in_i _i_ion_ini_i_ial ir_itn_i_i-c_ist n-ate less an_itin_ii1_iatc_iclin_itlat ic_in_i,

= cin_ian_iticipalecl i_i_iflatic_in_i, nvl _iicin is ti_ic_i clit

fenx-_in_ic_in_i 1_ic_i Iwc-e_i_i ic_ializc_icl ic_iflatin_in_i, it, a_i_id

antic-i1

_iaIc-d in_ifiation_i, its - 11 -~- 0.

Equation_i I c_ixpnn_isses c-c-al stc_ic_ik pc-ic-c-s n-cal in_icnnr_i_ic_i,

ti_ic_i intcn-c-sI n-alt_i residual au_id li_ic_i c_iu_ian_ige in_i anutic-i

paIn_ni inflation_i in_i Ic_in_i_i_is of ar_i n_iual izc_ini ~_in_inc_in_in_itage

c_ihau_iges. TI_ic- c_it_ian_iticipatc-d n-ate of in_Hahn_u_i is ti_in_i

diffc-nc-n_ic_ic_i bc_itwc_ic_ic_i twcn an_in_iualizc-d ~_ic_incc-n_itagc_ic-ales

n_if c-i_ian_igc-: ti_ic_i c-c_ializcd rate c_ifinitiation_i an_id Il_ic_i an_ilici

paIn_ni i-ate - ti_ic_i c_islii_i_iatc-s cisc_i qtuarlc_irly data Ic-c_in_i_i li_ic-

fic-sI quarter of1962 ti_inn_icngi_i ti_ic- fc_iurII_i qtuac- c_ic- c_if198-4.

Measuring an_iIici1

_iatc_ini in_iflatin_in_i is a1_ic-c_il_iic_in_i_i. Sin_ic-e

we ou_ily c_it_isn_irvn_i actual in_ifiation, vanic_ius an_iaiysts i_iavc-

usc_id diffc-rc_in_it _i_i_in_iti_in_ids Ic_i c_istin_iatc- an_iIici1

_ialc_id in_i

fiatinn n_i -

- ti_is study c_ishiu_i_iatc_is an_ilicipatc_id in_itlatic_in_i or_ic- quar-

In_in ahn_iad t_iy c_in_i_i1_iioyin_ig a tin_i_ic_isn_in-ic-s ft_im-c-n_iast n_if in_i

flat in_in_i. li_iis nt_in_ill_nd gn_in_ienatc-s pnc_idictic_in_is n_if in_iflatin_in_i

sc_iIc_ily n_in_i Il_ic- tnasis cnfits past bn_il_iavic_ir. Fl_ic- di ffc_irc-u_icc_i

t_ic-twn_ic-n_i ti_in_i ac_itual ratc- n_if in_iflatic_in_i an_id ti_ic_i raIn_i fc_irc-cast i_iy Il_in_i n_i_in_mid i5 ir_itn_in-pc-c_itc-d as Il_in_i c_in_i_i~_iiricat

cc_iun_itc-n-par-t n_ilu_i_ian_itic-ipatc-d inflation_i, it. tic_in_iannsc_i ti_ic_i

nn_iaI j_in-ic-n_i of i_ia n_ik stn_ic-k is c-x1_ic_in_itc_id tn_i t_ic_i in_isn_irsc-Iy

nc-la ted tn_i cnn_ian_i ticii_ialn_ici ir_illat ic_in_i, Il_ic_i n_ic_in_iffin_iic_in I c_ifii

st_ic_iulcI I_ic_i n_in_igativn_i.

An_itin_iipatc_id I n_iflatin_in_i, /11*, ar_in] n_il_ian_igc-s in_i It_ic- neal

m_inicc_i n_if l_ian_ik s tn_ic-k ac-n_i ti_ic-c_in-n_iIic-ally u.n_i_inc_iIatn_id; c-n_in_iscqun_in_itly, ti_in_i n_in_in_iffic_iic-n_i I ofti_is van-iabin_i sI_in_mId I_ic_i zen_i_i.

(ll_iai_igc-s in_i an_itici1

_iatc-d in_iHanic_i_i_i c-t_iar_igc_i in_i tc_irc_ist n-aces,

nvhn_in-c_i

_iT ELXtn)_iT*,

v/I_i

C

y

U__it)

See Hater and Hem (1985).

Roughly, the technique accounts for the past pattern of inflation byestimating a model that provides a description of the process thatgenerated the observed series. Past observations of inflation arethen used along with the intormalion contained in the time-seriesmodel to forecast intlation one period ahead. For further discussionof time-series models and their properties. see Pindyck and Rubin-fend (1981), pp. 469573, especially pp. 46970 and 49397. Forfurther discussion of the model employed here, see appendix 2.


8/12

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 1986

l_in_iwn_isn_in-, an_id thn_isc- i_i_i tn_in-n_ist natn_i n_i1_ian_ign_is ann_i c_ixpn_in_i Ic_id

Ic_i I_in_i in_ivn_in-sn_iiy nc_ilatc-nl tm_i n_il_ian_ign_is in_i stnnn_ik f_in-ic_in_is -

Estin_i_iatc_is n_if Il_in_i c_il_iangn_is in an_itin_ii1_iatn_in.l it_hahn_in_i arc_i

n_il_itain_in_id clint_icIly fr-n_in_i li_in_i in_hahn_in_i fc_inc-casts.

Real in_ic_ion_in_i g_iowtl_i was in_in_iiudn_ini as an_i c_ixplan_iatnnry

vaniabln_i Ic_i c_ion_itt-n_il ft_in thn_i n_iffn_in_it of Il_ic- husin_iess c_iyc_iln_ion batik n_iac-nings. liusin_ic_iss n_ixpan_isin_in_is in_in_it-case ti_ic-

c-n_ial quan_itity of i_iank Ic_ia_i_is, secunities an_in] dc-posits,

whic-i_i is thougi_il to l_iave a1

_iositise in_i_il_iact c_in_i tI_ic-

eixi_ien_itn_icl c-an-n_iings st_i-can_i_i. TI_in_i c-n_ipic-icai c_ioun_itn_inpan-I

n_ifnc-al inc_in_in_i_ic_i usn_id in_i ti_ic- c-n_ig_i-c-ssions is gross nalin_inai

pn-oduc-t ICNP) divided by ti_ic GNP dc-flatoc-. i-I_ic- cx-

pc_in_itc_id sign_i n_if the c_ioc-ffin_iic-nt oftI_is tern_i is pos_itivc-.

c ~

Ihe pc-ices ofl_iank stn_ic_iks ane expecln_ini Ic_i bc_i related

to cl_ian_ign_is in_i ti_ic- intcnest nate. ri_ic- in_itc-_i-cst n-ate will

vary witl_i changes in_i the e,x ante n-cal in_itc-n-c-st n-atm_i,changes in in_in_in_in_i_ic- tax laws, char_ign_is in_i c-isk pr_i_in_mm_i_is

and c_ii_ian_igesin antic-ipatn_id in_iflatic_in_i. Sin_in_ic-Il_ic- interest

c-atn_i in_icludes all n_if ti_ic-se fac_itn_ins, n_il_ian_iges i_i_i it n_ian_in_in_it

be neadily altc-ii_iutn_id to ti_ic- effect of an_iy n_in_ic_i n_ifIl_ic-n_i_i.The qualitative effect c_ifa change in_i Il_ic- it_itc-n-n_ist n-atn_i n_in

slock pt-ic-n_is, I_iowc-vcn-, is tI_ic san_i_ic- n-c-gan-dic-ss c_if Il_ic-

souc-n_ic_i. lhn_i n_ixpn_ic_itc_ini sign_i n_if ti_ic- n_in_in_iffin_iic_i_i_it n_if i_i_it n_ir_i_ist

n-atn_i c_ii_ianges is i_iegativc.

5mm_in_i ti_is papec- fn_in_im_isc_is n_in ti_in_i n_ific_in_iI n_if in_itlatin_in_i,

ti_in_i fn_iulowin_ig c-shin_i_ian_is at In_i_i_i_ij_i I tn_i iscnlatn_i ti_in_i c_iffn_ic-I n_if

a c_il_iai_igc- in_i an_itin_iij_ialc_iml in_ifiatin_in_i. As i_i_in_in_iticnn_ic_ini aI_in_ivc_i,

an_i estin_i_ia tn_i n_ifan_itin_iui_iatc_id in_iflatin_in_i, _it, is I_innnnimin_ic_in I I_i)ti_ic- tin_i_in_isn_in-ic_is fn_inn_icast nnf in_iflal in_in_i. WI_in_in_i ti_is n_isti

n_i_iatn_i is sn.nt_itran_itn_ini fr-c_in_i_i Il_ic_i n_cnn_u_i_id in_ifen-n_ist n-ate, Il_ic_i

n_i_isidual is an_i cslin_iatc- n_if ti_ic_i n_in_in_i_iinai inn Ic-rest n-atec_ixn_ilunlir_ig an_itic_ii

1_iatccl in_ifIaIin_in_i. Cn_in_isn_in~tin_in_itIy,

n_iI_iar_igc-s in_i tI_ic_i c_is tin_i_iatn_i n_if an_it in_iif_iatn_idl in_iflal in_in_i, ,Xrr,

an_ni n_il_ia_i_ign_is in_i fl_ic_i nhflc_in-n_in_in_ic_i I_in_i Isvn_in_i n_i ti_in_i n_in_in_i_iun_iai

ratn_i an_ic] ti_in_i n_istin_i_ialn_i n_if ar_itic_ii~_iaIc_iniin_hahn_in_i, &i it),

n_ian_i i_in_i in_ic-I incic_ici sc-j_ian-atc_iiy in_i ti_in_i n c_ign-n_is sin_it_i n_iqua

lion_i.li_ic- ext_in_ic-tn_id sign_i n_if c_iacl_i n_if tI_in_isn_i tn_in-n_i_is is

n_ic-gativn_i -

It_i adctitin_in_i to Il_in_i at_in_isc_i van-iabln_is, ti_ic_i c_is tin_i_iatn_inlequation_is in_in_iiunlin_i a du ninn_i_iy varial_iin_i Ic_i n_in_in_i tn_i_il fm_in li_ic_i

effn_in_it that n-c-c_ic-n_it I ,al in_i An_i_in-_in-ic_ian_i Ic_ia_i_i1_inc_ihIn_in_i_is i_iavn_i

l_iad n_in_i I_ianksIn_ic-k f_inin_ic-s. Dcic-ir_ig Il_in_i earl ~_iarIn_if1982,

it i_in_in_ian_i_ic_i appan-cnl tl_iat c_ic_inIain_i I atin_i An_i_ic-i-ic_ian_i c_iou_i_i

tnies w_ic_iid I_iavc_i diffin_iulty 1_ic_in_ic_in-it_ig their c_ii_ihgatin_in_is

tn_i U.S. t_ian_iks. h_i_i On_iIc_i1_in_ic- an_id Nm_in_in_i_il_ic_in- 1982, Il_ic_i

cet_itn-aI bank n_if Bc-azii t_in_igan_i l_ioc-n-owin_ig l_ic_iavuiy fr-cnn_i_ithe Exc_il_iangn_i Slabihzatin_in_i Fu_i_id n_if Il_ic- U.S. lr_i_iasu_iy;

Mexicn_i l_icgan_i dn-awing i_ic_iavuly on_i its swap itnn-an_igt_i

n_i_ic-nt witl_i li_ic Fc-dc-n-al Rc_iservn_i Systn_in_i_i in_i April n_if ti_ic_i

san_i_ic_i yc-an-. Nn_iws c-n_ipn_ints n_in_i ti_in_i c-xtc_in_it n_if ti_in_i pnn_il_iln_in_i_i

con_iIit_iun_ini to suit_i_ic_in_i fn_ic- about ti_ic-n_in_i quantc-n-s. li_in_i

pn_ic-in_ini nit_in_i_i_i_i_ic_id bc-gin_is in-_i li_in_i first quac-tcc- of 1982 an_idn_ixtn_in_inis li_in_i_iugl_i ti_ic_i ti_iic-d qcnan-tec- n_if 1982, wI_ic-n_i ii

i_ic-c-ann_in_i n_ividen_il that ti_ic_i U.S. gn_ivt_in-n_i n_i_in_in_it wn_iuid takc_i

a_i_i ac-live n-oic in_i c-c_isn_ilvin_ig ti_ic r_it_i_ibic-n_i_i - Fl_in_i n_ixpn_in_iIc_id

sign_i c_if li_ic_i dun_i_in_i_iy is n_in_igahivn_i.

ii~~

lal_iIn_i 5 pu-c-sc_i_i_i ts ti_in_i nn_ignn_is sk_in nn_iscnils - Esti_i_i_iatc_i 1

n_ixan_i_iin_in_is ti_ic_i n_iffc_in_iI n_if in_itlat ion_i on_i an_i i_i_idn_ix n_if ti_in_i rn_ial

si_ian_i_i pr-in_in_is c_if ban_iks in_in_ia In_id n_icntsidc- Nn_iw \n_ink City.

Eslin_i_iatn_i 2 nm_ic_is Il_ic_i san_i_ic- t I_iin_ig fn_ir Nc_isv Yc_irk City

l_ia_i_iks.

il_ic_i sign_is n_if ti_in_i n_is Iin_i_ialn_id c_in_in_iftin_iic_in_i Is ann_i as n_i_ic

~_in_in_itn_inl.Il_ic- n_istin_i_iatn_is in_idin_ialc_i ti_iat nnn_ian_itic_ii1

_iatn_id i_i_iflalin_in_i an_ni n_iI_ian_ign_is in_i Il_in_i an_itin_iipatn_inl raIn_i c_if in_ihlatin_ir_i

ac-n_i ii_ivn_in-sn_iIy r-c_ilatc_inl In_i n_ii_ian_ign_is in_i ti_in_i nc_ial i_nm_in_i c_if

t_ian_ik shn_ic_ik. As c_ixI_in_in_itn_id, lI_in_i n_is tin_na ted c-n_in_iffic_iin_i n_it n_if

an_ihin_iipatn_id in_iflat in_in_i is i_ic_it sign_iitic_ian_itly diffn_in_i_in_it frnn_i

zn_ic-n_i in_i a snatislic_iai sc_in_isn_i,

Changes in the interest rate are expected to be positively related tochanges in anticipated inftation, To check this, changes in the Aaabond rate, AR, and changes in the 3-month Treasury bitt rate, ARS,were regressed on the estimate of the change in inflation expecta-tions. The results are presented bc-low,

AR, = .09 + .13A_ir,(1.93) (3.03)

ARS, = .06 + .36 A,r,(.58) (3.71)

DW = 1.65 DW = 1.79

fl~:~.10 R .14

Although both coefficients are tess than one, they are both positiveand significantly different from zero. The estimated coefficient ofAn is larger in the equation ton the short-term interest rate, whichsuggests that the inflation forecast used here is a better estimate ofshort-run expectations.

~Actualty,the data entry is one plus the difference between thenominal rate and anticipated inflation. This is necessary becausethe difference is negative in some quarters during 1971, 1975 and

1976. See Brown and Santoni (1981) for a discussion of someproblems associated with this method of separating the nominal rateinto its various components.

On February 2, 1983, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Boardaddressed the House Committee on Banking. Finance and UrbanAffairs regarding the problem and measures to deal with it. SeeVotcker (1983).

This was done because Standard and Poors reports the data thisway.


9/12

Table 5

Estimating the Effect of Inflation on the Price of Bank Shares,Sample Period: 111962IV/1985

Estimate 1

ALnBKP 4.29 1.79ALny 4.72ALn(1 n - it) 1.48_it 05_i_i .I2ALnrr 11.75 DUM(47) (221) (391) (3.19) (.15) (301) (2.64)

RSO= .34OW 1 68

Estimate 2:

ALnBKNYP = 5.94 1 lOAmy 5.5IALn(l +n it ) I 34-_i_i3

S-~~ 12ALn 605 DUM(54) (133) (444) (2.81) (.99) (2.97) (1.32)

RSQ 31

DW = 174

whereBK/P = the Standard and Poor s index of the real share prnces of banks located oulsnde New York City

BKNY/P -- the Standard and Poors nndex of the real hare prices of New York City banksy = Real Gross National Product

the corporate Aaa bond rate

it unantncrpated inflationin anticipated infiatnon

DUM - I dunng i/1982ilIti982 and zero otherwnse

NOTE_i Absotule vaiues oft scores appear rn parentheses sngnifncanlty dnfferent I om zero at the 5 percent level

hi_in_i c_innn_iffin_iic_in_it n_if ti_in_i ci tn n_in n_i_i_i. vaniat_iin_i l_ias ti_in_i nc-_i I_ic-in_in_is c_il t_iar_iks in_i n_inn_iasn_inl by at_in_i nut 3.0 i n_in_i_in_in_it, c_ic_inn_in-is

1_in_in_itn_icm sign_i in_i hn_i ti_i n_is Iin_maIn_is I _iu t is n_in_it sign_ific_ian_il in_i i_iarii_ius, as a n_in_in_isn_injnne_i_in_in_i n_if ti_in_i I all in_i an_it in_i

1_iatn_ini

c_ish in_i rate 2. In_i li_in_i n_iasc_i n_if n_isli n_i_iatc_i I - ti_in_i n_ic_in_iffin_iin_in_i I is in_ifialin_in_i in_i 1985 an_ni i_in_ic_iannsn_i ti_in_i an_iInnal raIn_i n_if in_i

sig_i_iuiin_ian_it a_i_id its j_in_iun_it n_istin_i_iatn_i is faini iargn_i, snug fiahin_in_i in_i 1985 was n_in_in_i In_iwc_in ti_ian_i an_i tin_ii1

_iatc_icI.

gn_istin_ig li_ia I ti_in_i gn-n_isvIi_i in_i n-c-al st nnn_ik i_inic_ic_is was ai_ic_itnI

12 i_in_in_i_ic-n_it ln_iwc-n-, n_in avc-n-agn_i, ni inc-in_ig Il_in_i first ti_in-n_in_i

njt_iarln_ins n_if 1982, n_ili_in_ic- lt_ii_i_igs ti_in_i san_i_in_i. il_is n_i_iay l_in_i

sn_in_i_in_iwI_iat n_i_iislm_ianhn_ig sin_in_in_i tI_ic_i n_in_in_ifinln_in_in_in_i in_iIn_invai ,,. - - - - -- . - - . li_ins

1_iapn_in- c_ixan_i_i_in_in_is ti_in_i c-Ifn_in_it tI_iat _i_i_iulatnn_in_i l_ias n_i_i_i

tn_ic- ti_ins c-n_in_illnn_inc-_in_it c-an_ign_is Ic-n_in_i_i 2.9 In_i -20.7. - - - -ti_ic_i si_ianc I_inc-c-s n_if n_ic_in_i_in_i_in_inn_in_iul ban_iks. li_in_i nn_isuits

in_idmn_iatc- tI_iat ti-_in_i c-n_ia! si_iac-n_i i_inc-n_is of l_ian_iks an_i_i in_ivc_in-sn_iiy n_i_iIatcd tn_i bc_ill_i n_in_ian_ilin_iipatc_id in_i ilz_ih ion_i li_iat

Fl_in_i avn_iragc_i In_ic-n_in_ias I n_if in_i liz_itin_in_i lit) gn_in_in_in-aI n_ni i_i_i is, nln_iviatic_in_is in_i ti_in_i n-calizc_id nahn_i c_ifin_ifIatic_in_i fnn_in_i_i its

lI_in_i tin_i_in_isn_im_is _i_i_in_in]c-I clun-_in_ig 1984 was al_ic_nut 4.0 [_ic-n an_itmn_iipatn_ici n-ate ~ anni ci_ian_ign_is in_i ar_itin_iipatn_id in_i

n_il ti_i_is In Ii tn_i ni_in_innt I i pn n n ni_it dun nn_i~1485 n n suit hi Itnon_i Cc_intn try tn_i sn_in_i_ic n I nnn_ils ti_ins n v_inln n_inn _in_inln

in_ig in_i a 13.5 [_in_incn_in_i I nlnn_ip in_i an_it in_ii_iatn_id in_iflat in_in_i canes ll_iat I_iar_ik sI_ian_i_ii_ic_iinln_ic-s i_ia_i_in_i i_in_in_in_ifi tn_ic] fnc_iu_i_i ti_ic

IAl .n_i-ir - - Fl_in_i Iatnin_i 5 n_istinn_iatn_is snnggn_ist Ii_iat ii _iis naisn_ini c-n_ic_ic_in_it dc_ic_un_in_i in_i ti_in_i naIn_i n_if in_iflatin_inn an_id Ii_iat an_iyti_in_i r_i_iai stn_in_ik I_inn_in_is n_if ti_in_i i_ia_i_i ks in_i ti_in_i san_i_i pin_i I_is n_in_in_ixpn_in_itn_id n_i_isnnn-gcu_in_in_i n_if in_ifIatic_in_i wc_ic_iId i_in_i i_ia_i-_i_i_ilui -

at_in_ic_it 1.6 pn_in_i_ic-.n_it I = 13.5 x .12. in_i adclitin_in_i, ti_ic_i

dn_in_itinnn_i in_i Il_in_i an_ilual natn_i n_if in_iflatin_in_i n_ixn_in_in_inic_iml Il_ic_i

dc_in_un_in_i in_i an_ilin_ii1

_iatccl iu_iflanin_in_i. As zn nc_isuit, un_ian_itin_ii

1_iatn_id in_ifiation_i an_imaged ai_in_itnt - ~ pn_i-c_ic-n_it in_i 1985, -- - - . - Alchnan, Anmen A., and William R. Allen. Exchange andProduction:

ransnn_ig li_in_i nc_iaI stn_in_ik i_in_in_in_is n_il inan_iks i_i) ar_i anldntnn_in_iai Competition, Coordination andControl, 2nd ed. (Wadsworth Pub-

.2 u_in_inn_ic-n_it I = .85 X 1.4). In_i sun_i, ti_in_i c-n_ia! stc_in_ik lishing Company. Inc., 1977), pp. 49094.


10/12

DERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOWS MARCH 1966

Alchian, Armen A., and Reuben A. Kessel. Effects of Inflation, Kessel, Reuben A. Inflation-Caused Wealth Redistribution_i A TestEconomic Forces at Work (Liberty Press, 1977a), pp. 36396. of a Hypothesis, American Economic Review (March 1956), pp.

12841._______ and . Redistnibution ofWealth Through infla-

tion, Econom/c Forces atWork (Liberty Press, 1977b), pp. 397 Keynes, J. M. A Tracton MonetaryReform (Macmillan and Com-412. pany, 1923).

Bierwag, G. 0., George G. Kaufman and Alden Toevs. Duration: Kochin, Levis. The Term Structure of Interest Rates and UncertainIts Development and Use in Bond Portfolio Management, Finan- Inflation (University of Washington, 1981; processed).cia/AnalystsJournal (July/August 1983), pp. I ~ Maisel, Sherman J., and Robert Jacobson. Interest Rate Changes

Brown, W. W., and G. J. Santoni. Unreal Estimates of the Real and Commercial Bank Revenues and Costs, Journalof Financial

Rate of Interest, this Review (January 1981), pp. 18-26. andQuantitative Analysis (November 1978), pp. 687700.Corporate Earnings Uneven, New YorkTimes, November4, 1985. Pindyck, Robert S., and Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Econometric Models

and Economic Forecasts, 2nd ed. (McGraw-Hilt Book Company,Danby, Michael R. The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary 1981), pp. 469573.

Policy on interest Rates, Economic Inquiry(June 1975), pp. 26676. Samuelson, Paul A. The Effect of interest Rate increases on the

Banking System, American Economic Review(March 1945), pp.Fama, Eugene F. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory 1627,

and Empirical Work, Journalof Finance, Papers and Proceedings(May 1970), pp. 383417. Santoni, G. J. Interest Rate Risk and the Stock Prices of Financial

institutions, this Review (August/September 1984), pp. 1220,Fisher, Irving. Appreciationandlnterest(AugusfusM. Kelley, 1965),

pp. 1IOO. , and Courtenay C. Stone. Navigating Through the In-terest Rate Morass: Some Basic Principles, this Review (March

________ TheTheory otInterest (Kelley and Millman, 1954). 1981), pp. 1118.

______ TheRate ofInterest (The Macmillan Company, 1907). The Shaky Credit Structure, Washington Post, November4, 1985.

Hater, R. W., and Scott E. Hem. On the Accuracy of Time-Series, Volcker, Paul A. Statement Before theCommittee on Banking, Fi-

interest Rate, and Survey Forecasts of Inflation, TheJournalof nance and Urban Affairs, House ofRepresentatives, February 2,Business(October 1985), pp. 37798. 1983.


11/12

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 1966

APPENDIX 1

Some Banking Arithmetic

In_i iangn_i paut, a i_ian_iks n_ixpn_ic-In_id sin-n_ia_in n_if u_in_il un_ivn_i

n_in_in_i is gn_in_ini_iu-alc_id b_i its i_in_ildi_i_igs n_if n_in_in_itin_ial assets an_id

itai_ijliIin_is. Ti_ic-sn_ian-c- its In_ian_is, L, vvl_iin_ii_i n_iann_i Il_in_i nt_iatkn_iIin_itn_inc_isI c-aln_i, i,,, an_id its deposits, I), n_in_i wi_in_i_i im_itn_irn_isI,

in,. is u_iainl. In addilin_in_i, n_iwn_ic_ims i_ian_i in_ivn_isln_ini n_iai_iital, I,ofwi_in_i_i a fuan_itin_in_i, a, n_i_iusl I_in_i i_in_Id as n_ic_in_iin_i In_ic-n_isI

c_iac-n_iun_ig n-c-sn_inc-s against nic-i_ic_isits, an_id ti_ic- n_i_in_i_iain_iin_ig

fnan_itin_in_i, Ii a), is i_ic_id it_i n_iilhn_ic- i_in_in_i_iin_ial n_ic- n-c_iai assn_its

ti_iat ann_i n_ix1_ic_ic-ted In_i yin_ild ti_ic- n_i_iac-kn_iI na Ic-, ij,,, TI_in_i

li_illn_iwin_ig assuu_i_in_is Ii_iat ti_is r_i_in_i_iaindn_ic- is l_in_ild n_in_itic-n_iiy

in_i n_in_it n-n_ia! assn_its. iI_ic- n_ixpn_in_itn_icl st n-c-ann of n_in_it revn_in_i nun_i,

Ii, is givn_in_i it_i n_iquation_i I

Ill H = i,~L Li) + ill n_i_ill.

If Il_ic- c-c_ic~uinc-n1 n-c-sn_ic-n_i tatin_i is f_i. nn_iqtnu_i_id n-c-sn_ic-n_is

an-c- 1_it)=

at. ti_in_i cluan_itity n_if li_ian_is am_id nIe1_iosils ti_in_il_iar_ik c-an_i gn_in_in_iraIn_i arn_i L = I) = at/p. In_i c_iqnrilii_ir-iun_i_i,

ti_ic_i n_ixi_in_in_i tent c-n_i_in_in_iuc_i Stc-n_ian_i_i n_if ti_in_i i_ian_ik 1)ansI n_inlual

il_i n_i attn_in-u_iativn_i stn_i_iam_i_i n_il n_ian-n _iin_igs Ii_iat c-n_iuld I_in_i n_il_i

tam_in_ni by in_ivcstin_ig ti_ic- c-at_i lal at tI_ic- n_i_ianinn_it in_i Ic_irn_ist

naln_i, Ti_is is sl_in_iwn_i in_i n_iquali _ir_i 2_i

121 Ii = ii, LI) + ill all -= i,,,aI LII all.

li_in_i n_iaj_iiIaI valun_i n_if ti_ic_i I_ian_ik, K, is si_in_iwn_i it_i n_inflnat ion_i

131 K = = at + II all = I.

APPENDIX 2

Enlualic_in_i 3 c-_iq_inn_issn_is ti_in_i n_ia1

_iital vaiun_i n_if ti_in_i t_ian_ik as

th_i p_i-n_isn_ir_it valun_i n_if li_in_i stnn_ian_i_i n_ifc_ixpc_in_itn_id n-n_ivc-n_iun_i, In_i

n_iqtnil ii_ic-iun_i_i, K = I. IfK _in_in_i_i gnn_iatn_ir tI_ian_i I, nn_isn_iuc-n_in_iswoni cit_in_i at In-an_itn_ini In_i l_ian_ikit_ig sin_in_in_i Il_in_i n_ia

1_ii tal vaIn_ic_i

c_if fn_in-n_i_iir_ig a i_ian_ik would n_ixc_in_in_id ti_ic- n_ii_il_ion-In_in_iity n_ic_ist.

IfK went_i ln_iss Il_ian_i I, n-n_isn_in_i n_i_in_is wn_iulnt In_ian_i ti_ic- in_iclus

I_iy-

The Equilibrium Interest Rate on Bank

Deposits

Sul_istitutin_ig p1) fn_ic- alit_i n_iqualio_i_i 2 an_nI n_in_iIinng tf_iaI

I) = l~,Ihn_i n_iqnn.ilii_ic-iun_i_i in_itn_it-n_is I raIn_i n_in_i l_ian_ik nh_i1_in_isils

is givc_in_i in_i n_injuation_i 4_i

4) i~= II f_ill,,,.

Banks as Net Creditors in Nominal

Assets

Nn_it n_in_in_i_iin_ial assn_its, NNA, at-n_i n_ion_i_iim_ial assets n_i_iin_ius

n_ion_i_iit_ial IiaI_iihtin_is. li_in_i I_iar_iks ttn_in_i_iin_ial assc_iIs au-c_i tI_in_i

sn_in_i_i n_if i Is in_ian_is an_id c-c-sn_ic-c-n_is, wi_un_i li_in_i l_ian_iks nm_i

1_in_isits ac-c- its n_in_ini_iit_iai iial_iihtics. Assunntin_ig n_in~uilil_i

c-inn_i_i, ti_ic_isn_i ann. gc-vn_in_i i_i_i n_iqualin_in_i 5_i

151 NNA = L + pU i) = pt).

LIn_idn_ic- Il_in_isc_i assun_im1_itic_in_is, Il_ic- i_ian_ik is a r_in_iI n_in_i_inhtnc- in_i

n_in_iurtin_iai assn_its In_i ti_in_i n_ixtn_i_i_it n_ifits i-n_is n_ic-n_i i_in_iidi r_igs.

A Time-Series Forecast of Inflation

\/Vi_iiln_i Il_ic_i in_iitiai n_il_isn_ic-vatin_ir_i fou li_in_i mc_igm_i_issin_in_is n_i_i

i_ionin_ici it_i ti_ic_i t _ixI is finsI n4uac-tn_ic- 1962, ti_in_i dala pc_nm d

usn_id tn_i clevc-in_iu_i Il_in_i fn_inn_ic_iast n_if it_ifiatic_in_i las n_i_in_iastrn_i_inim

_iv ti_in_i CNl~dn_illalon-l n_ixtn_in_inis ban_ik tn_i fin-st ninnan-In_ic- I 948.

A han_ikwar-ni n_ixtn_in_isin_iu_i is n_in_ic_in_issany In_i gn_it tI_in_i In_ir_i_in_iast

in_ig n_i_in_dc_I stac-tc_id.

Sit_in_in_i tI_in_i _in_inin_id n _ic_ivn_ic-n_id is quitc_i Ic_it_ig, a t_i_iugl_i

n_it_in_ir_ik n_il ti_in_i niala was n_itanln_i to cin_itn_ir-n_i_iintn_i if ti_ic- i_rn_i

n_in_iss I I_iat gn_ir_in_ir-atn_ini I I_it_i tin_i_in_i sn_it-in_is n_il_ian_ign_ini nttatn_ini ;nI lv

nyc-n_in ti_in_i1_in_inin_id I/I 948IV/I 985. In_i dc_i so .t n_i_in_idc-l was

fiusl c_istin_i_iatn_inl fn_in 1/1948IWI 965 ar_id tl_in_isn_i nc_isnulls

wn_ic-n_i c_ion_it I_ian_i_ni witl_i ti_in_i c-n_isul Is n_ii_itain_in_ini Inn_in_i_i n_ist ir_i_ialn_is fn_ic- I/I 966IV/l 985. li_in_i UN I nln_iIlatc_in ai_ipn_iac-s tnt

I_ic_i a st_in_ic_in_idn_in-nit_ic- i_in_inr_in_ign_in_in_in_ius u_in_i_i n_in_is s il_ia I n_ia n_i hn_i

m_inn_idn_iln_inI as ARt MA 10, 2, II - li_in_i n_istin_i_ia tn_ni n_i_iodn_ils foc-

Il_in_i two i_in_ic-in_icls ac-n_i n_i_ipon-In_id i_in_iln_iw. Cain_idaIc_id t

stalis tin_is a i_iI_in_iac- in_i I_ian_i_in_i ti_in_ist_is, ar_icl ii is a ban_i kwan_il

si_iift n_ipn_ir-atn_in, in_i., Ilill X, =


12/12

RESES.VE BAN.K OF ST. LOFO 014 19/14.

I/i 948IV/i965 A n_ic_idel was It_ic-n n_islin_i_iaIc-d foc-Ii_in_i i_ic-c-in_id i/I 948I V/1961, an_id a fon-c-c-ast n_i_if inflation_i foc- 1/1962 was made.

AL~_ip,= .107 U -- .491Uc-, Tl_ie diffc-c-n_ir_in_ie l_in_itwn_in_it_i Il_ic- n-eahzn_inl in_iflatio_i_i nale fn_ic- 1/

.58) 4.73) 1962 and tI_is fn_in_ic_iast is intn_ic-pc-c-tn_ini as ti_ic- c-r_i_ipin-_ic_ial

- - - - c-on_intn_in-pan-I n_ifiv.

Ct_i_i-square (2, 24) = 16.07

I/19664V11985 TI_ic- fn_i_i_i_in_iasl fn_in ti_ic- next q_i_ian-ler, 11/1962, is gen_ic-n--ated i_iy addin_ig li_ic- c-ealizc-nI in_ifiation_i u-ate fn_ic- 1/1962 to

&LnP, = .003 + Ii .48t1)c-, - - -(.03) 4.70) lI_ic- nlata at_id c-c-c-st_in_iatrn_ig ti_ic- n_i_iodn_ii li_ic-ougi_i 1/1962

and ~_innx_ic-c-d_ingas at_in_ivc-. Fl_ic- pn_i_in_iess was c-n_ipc-ateniCl_ii-squa_i-n_i (2, 24) = 26.63 fn_ir c-ac-i_i quan-In_in tl_in_i_itlgl_i IV/1985.

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EffectsIMP_Mar1986