Effects of social origin on educational decisions and the transitions from

education to first job

Lachezar Nyagolov :Institute for the Study of Societies and Knowledge at BASRumiana Stoilova :Institute for the Study of Societies and Knowledge at BAS

Кaloyan Haralampiev : Sofia University

Content

1. Research question and theoretical concepts2. Hypothesis3. Social context and previous research4. Descriptive statistics 5. Results6. Conclusions

1 Research question- The main question addressed in this presentation: what is the effect of social origin on educational performance and transitions and is there a dependency between level of education and professional realization ?

Theoretical concepts1Theoretical concepts of Raymond Boudon:1. Primary effects of origin. These are responsible for the statistical relationship between children’s social background and level of academic achievements in school. There is a correlation between higher social status of the parents and higher education outcomes of children. Also, the lower the social status of the family, the lower the educational outcomes of the children (Boudon 2010:59).2. Secondary effects of origin. These effects are expressed in the decisions made by the parents regarding the education of their children in terms of the type of educational direction. Given equal educational achievements, parents belonging to the middle strata of society seek to preserve or improve in the next generations their already acquired educational status, and they are more willing to invest in the education of their children (Boudon 2010:61) .

2 John Goldthorpe on the rational calculations behind different educational decisions of working and middle class families :19961. The family investments in the education of the children are made on the basis of calculations of costs and risks. - For working class families, there is a higher risk that their children may interrupt their education or not fully utilize it.2. Compared to working class families, middle class families have greater financial resources, which they can allocate for the education of their children.

• In implementing this theoretical concept in the analysis, the willingness of the families to invest in the education of their children is measured by payment for private lessons.

2 Hypotheses1. Young people of different social origin have

different educational achievements. Those whose parents have lower social status, measured by the educational level of the parents, have lower academic results.

2. Given equal educational achievements, the children who have a higher social origin have a better chance to continue to the next level of education.

Data used in the descriptive statistics and the analysis• The data is from School-Leavers Survey (SLS) 2014• National representative survey for people aged 15–34

who had left education for the first time in the previous five years for more than one year.

• Face-to-face interviews • Sample size - 2103 • One sample of 1500, representative for the country • One booster sample, representative for the Northwest

Region = 300• One booster sample, representative for the Southwest

Region = 300

3 Social contextEducational structure Changes in the educational structure of young people in Bulgaria,

aged 15-29 years, for the period 2004 to 2014

Source : Eurostat- Over a period of 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the percentage of young people with higher and secondary education and a decrease of those possessing only lower secondaty or lower education.

47% 43%10%

33% 51%16%

2004 2014

Methods and measurements

- In the analysis, parents are divided into 3 educational groups according to the highest level of education acquired by at least one parent - tertiary, secondary, basic education or lower.

- The education categories are used as an indicator of social origin of the respondents.

- The academic achievement is measured by the overall score indicated on the certificates, respectively for basic, secondary and tertiary level of education

Previous research - Social origin and educational mobility1. In the lowest and middle levels of the educational structure, there is a higher degree of social closure compared with the tertiary level of education.2. The strongest upward mobility is seen in people who have reached higher education - 39% are from families with lower educational status.3. The upward mobility is weaker in secondary education – 13% .(Stoilova 2012:122)Data from GGS 2004

Current data on social origin

Source : SLS- High correlation between parents’ level of education and respondents’ level of

education (Cramer’s V 0,476).- The highest level of reproduction of the parents’ level of education is still in the

part of basic and lower – 71%; reproduction decreases in secondary (66%) and tertiary education (51%).

- Increase of the upward mobility in tertiary education – 49%.- No change in the upward mobility in secondary education.

Basic and lower Secondary Tertiary

71%

13%

3%

26%

66%

46%

3%

21%

51%

Educational structure according to the social origin

Basic and lower Secondary Tertiary

Respondents’ level of education

Education of the parents

Previous research – Gender and Educational Mobility

1. Upward educational mobility is higher for women (34%) than for men (27%).2. Downward educational mobility is higher for men (16%) than for women (11%).

Source : Stoilova 2012:120Data from GGS 2004

Current data on gender and educational mobility

Source : SLS- Gender differences in educational mobility still exist - Women continue to have better chances for upward

education mobility (22%) than men (16%)- Downward mobility continues to be higher for men (19%)

than for women (15%)

Stable Upward mobility Downward mobility

61%

22%15%

65%

16% 19%

Woman Man

4 Descriptive statistics1. Material status of the familyThe possession of a PC in the family is used as indicator of material status.

Source : SLS- High correlation between possession of PC and respondents’ level of education

(Cramer’s V 0,571).- The higher the education status of the family, the higher its material status -

100% of those with tertiary education and 42% of those with basic or lower.

Basic and lower Secondary Tertiary

42%

91%100%

58%

9%0%

Material statusFamily with PC Family without

Education of the respondent

2. Social origin and selectivity of the school

Source : SLS- There is a correlation between parents’ education and enrollment in

selective schools (Cramer’s V 0,341). - 59% of the respondents whose parents have tertiary education chose

selective schools: this choice was made by only 9% of the respondents whose parents have basic or lower education.

Basic and lower Secondary Tertiary

9%

31%

59%

91%

69%

41%

Level of parents’ education and attending selective secondary school

Yes No

Parents’ education

3. Effect of level of education on employment contract

Source: SLS 2014- Significant correlation between type of employment contract and level of

education (Cramer’s V 0,280). - 79% of tertiary degree holders and 30% of those with basic or lower education

have permanent contract

Basic and lower Secondary Tertiary

29.70%

72.90% 78.50%

40.50%

24.10%20.00%

29.70%

2.90% 1.50%

Type of empolument contract Without fixed dura. With fixed dura. No contr.

• Hypothesis 1 - variables 1 Dependent variable – academic achievements –satisfactory (3), very god and excellent (5,6) with reference category good (4)2 Independent variables:A) Parents education - Basic and lower, tertiary with reference category secondaryB) Gender – man with reference category womanC) Place of completion of education – Big city, small city, village, abroad with reference category capital.

5. ResultsHypothesis 1Academic achievement of the respondents in basic level of education

Multinomial logistic regression for academic achievements for basic education Academic achievements (ref.cat. – Good 4) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Satisfactory

(3) Very

good and excellent

(5,6)

Satisfactory (3)

Very good and excellent

(5, 6)

Satisfactory (3)

Very good and

excellent (5,6)

Parents education (ref. cat. – secondary)

Basic and lower

1,27** -1,62** 1,29** -1,69** 1,29** -1,57**

Tertiary -1,13 1,62** -1,16 1,70** -1,13 1,60**

Gender (ref.cat – woman)

Man 0,35 -0.94** 0,35 -0,94**

Place of completion of basic edu. (ref.cat – Capital)

Big city -0,63 -0,28 Small city 0,14 -0,18 Village -0,31 -0,80** Abroad 0,37 17,92

Number of cases

1962 1962 1962

Nagelkerke 0,301 0,341 0,355

Academic achievement of the respondents in secondary level of educationMultinomial logistic regression for academic achievements for secondary education

Academic achievements (ref.cat. – Good 4) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Satisfactory

(3) Very good

and excellent

(5,6)

Satisfactory (3)

Very good and

excellent (5,6)

Satisfactory (3)

Very good and

excellent (5,6)

Parents education (ref. cat. – secondary)

Basic and lower

1,19** -0,74** 1,21** -0,78** 1,09** -0,70**

Tertiary -1,41 1,34** -1,45 1,45** -1,34 1,40** Gender (ref.cat – woman)

Man 0,43 -1,09** 0,49 -1,09**

Place of completion of secondary edu. (ref.cat – Capital)

Big city -0,77 -0,29 Small city 0,13 -0,28 Village 0,11 -0,87* Abroad 16,06 -0,21

Number of cases 1617 1617 1617 Nagelkerke 0,138 0,207 0,217

Academic achievement of the respondents in tertiary level of educationMultinomial logistic regression for academic achievements for tertiary education

Academic achievements (ref.cat. – Satisfactory and Good (3 and 4) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Very good and excellent

(5,6) Very good and excellent

(5,6) Very good and excellent

(5,6) Parents education (ref. cat. – secondary)

Basic and lower

-0,10 -0,09 0,01

Tertiary 0,82** 0,84** 0,77** Gender (ref.cat – woman)

Man

-0,16

-0,17

Place of completion of secondary edu. (ref.cat – Capital)

Big city -0,56 Small city -0,42 Abroad -0,82

Number of cases 407 407 407 Nagelkerke 0,058 0,050 0,065

Hypothesis 2Given equal educational achievements, the children of a higher social origin have a better chance of continuing to the next level of education.1. Transition from basic to secondary education2. Transition from secondary to tertiary education

Hypothesis 2 - variables 1 Dependent variable – probability to be enrolled in secondary /tertiary education 2 Independent variables:A) Parents education - Basic and lower, tertiary with reference

category secondaryB) Academic achievements from the previous level of

education–satisfactory (3), very god and excellent (5,6) with reference category good (4)

C) Attending private lessons – attended with reference category not attended

D) Gender – man with reference category womanE) Place of completion of education – Big city, small city, village,

abroad with reference category capital.

Binomial logistic regression for the chance to be enrolled in secondary education Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Parents education (ref. cat. – secondary)

Basic and lower -2,76** -1,98** -1,94** -1,91** -1,81** Tertiary 2,67* 1,71 1,56 1,53 1,41

Academic achievements from basic edu. (ref.cat. – Good 4)

Satisfactory (3) -0,93** -0,93** -0,98** -1,01** Very good and excellent (5,6)

2,13** 2,02** 2,12** 2,08**

Private lessons (ref.cat. – no)

Yes 16,12 16,16 16,03

Gender (ref.cat – woman)

Man 0,47* 0,50*

Place of completion of basic edu. (ref.cat – Capital)

Big city 0,02 Small city -0,22 Village -0,65 Abroad 14,45

Number of cases 1977 1973 1972 1972 1972 Nagelkerke 0,324 0,431 0,435 0,440 0,447

Enrollment in secondary after basic education

Enrollment in tertiary after secondary educationBinomial logistic regression for the probability to be enrolled in tertiary education

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Parents education (ref. cat. – secondary)

Basic and lower -1,00** -0,66** -0,45 -0,45 -0,47 Tertiary 1,48** 1,15** 1,17** 1,17** 1,22**

Academic achievements from basic edu. (ref.cat. – Good 4)

Satisfactory (3) -1,15 -0,93 -0,94 -0,90 Very good and excellent (5,6)

2,23** 2,08** 2,08** 2,12**

Private lessons (ref.cat. – no)

Yes 21,18 21,18 21,15

Gender (ref.cat – woman)

Man 0,02 -0,00

Place of completion of secondary edu. (ref.cat – Capital)

Big city 0,49** Small city 0,31 Village 0,57 Abroad 20,57

Number of cases 1653 1652 1652 1652 1652 Nagelkerke 0,169 0,379 0,528 0,528 0,533

6. Conclusions

Hypothesis 1 is confirmed – the higher the social origin of the respondents, the higher are their academic achievements. - The effect of educational status of the family is

significant at the level of basic and secondary education and is statistically insignificant at the level of tertiary education.

- The tertiary level of education remains significant even when the lower levels of education no longer have any statistical significance.

Impact of gender and type of settlement- Gender has a negative effect on the probability that boys will have very good or excellent grades in both basic and secondary education. This effect is no longer present in tertiary education.- The only type of settlement that has a statistically significant effect is the village – it reduces the probability of very good and excellent grades. Again, when tertiary level is reached, this effect disappears.

Hypothesis 2 is also confirmed- Both the academic achievements of the respondents and their

social origin have an effect on the chances of continuing to the next level of education. Social origin remains significant for the chance of enrollment in both secondary and tertiary education.

- Higher academic achievements increase the chance of being enrolled in both secondary and tertiary education and are with higher impact in comparison to higher social origin for the probability to be enrolled in both secondary and tertiary education.

- Gender has a positive effect over the probability of boys to be enrolled in secondary education but stops being significant in tertiary level

- The type of settlement is statistically significant only for tertiary education and only for the big cities.

Selectivity and social origin- There is an interdependence between the selectivity of the

school and the social status of the parents. The families with higher social status more often prefer to send their children to schools requiring entry exams. The families with lower and medium social status prefer schools without such exams.

Education and type of employment contract- The effect of education on the type of employment

contract shows the benefits of a higher education, which provides more stable positions to people with secondary and especially tertiary education.

Thank you for your attention !

Lachezar Nyagolov – lachezarnyagolov@gmail.com