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EFFECTS OF CHANGING CLIMATE ON THE DEMOGRAPHY OF THE KARNER BLUE BUTTERFLY:
PROGRESS SUMMARY
NPS Climate change response grant
A joint collaboration between NPS, USGS, University of Notre Dame
PROJECT OVERVIEW
Temp treatments Snow cover treatments Predation/parasitism Lupine phenology
Range-wide Population-specific
DEMOGRAPHY NICHE MODELING
MICROCLIMATE POP. GENETICS Map Kbb, lupine,
and microclimate at INDU
Genetic diversity and variation
What is a “population”?
PROJECT OVERVIEW
Temp treatments Snow cover treatments Predation/parasitism Lupine phenology
Range-wide Population-
specific
DEMOGRAPHY NICHE MODELING
MICROCLIMATE POP. GENETICS Map Kbb, lupine,
and microclimate at INDU
Genetic diversity and variation
What is a “population”?
DEMOGRAPHY TEMPERATURE TREATMENTS
CLIMATE SIMULATION
TEMP (DEG C)
HISTORIC INDU 1960-90 AVERAGE
~2040 +2
~2070 +4
~2100 +6
~160 diapausing Kbb eggs (2010 2nd flight) per treatment
"+0"
"+2"
"+4"
"+6"
19-Mar 29-Mar 8-Apr 18-Apr 28-Apr 8-May 18-May 28-May 7-Jun 17-Jun
20-Apr
14-Apr
9-Apr
28-Mar
44
42
38
43
11
10
11
10
First Flight Development Times
Hatch Pupation Adult
"+0"
"+2"
"+4"
"+6"
27-May 6-Jun 16-Jun 26-Jun 6-Jul 16-Jul 26-Jul 5-Aug
28-Jun
15-Jun
10-Jun
2-Jun
24
22
18
17
8
7
7
6
Second Flight Development Times
Hatch Pupation Adult
Treatment Cohort DemographyTreatment 1st Flight 2nd Flight 3rd Flight 4th Flight
"+0" Y (175) Y (268) N (0) N (0)
"+2" Y (158) Y (232) Y (85) N (0)
"+4" Y (168) Y (331) Y (63) N (0)
"+6" Y (165) Y (221) Y (67) Y* (5)
*Did not reach pupation
9C Degree Day Model
1/1/2007
1/12/2007
1/23/2007
2/3/2007
2/14/2007
2/25/2007
3/8/2007
3/19/2007
3/30/2007
4/10/2007
4/21/2007
5/2/2007
5/13/2007
5/24/2007
6/4/2007
6/15/2007
6/26/2007
7/7/2007
7/18/2007
7/29/2007
8/9/2007
8/20/2007
8/31/2007
9/11/2007
9/22/2007
10/3/2007
10/14/2007
10/25/2007
11/5/2007
11/16/2007
11/27/2007
12/8/2007
12/19/2007
12/30/2007
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
Ambient246
12C Degree Day Model
1/1/2007
1/11/2007
1/21/2007
1/31/2007
2/10/2007
2/20/2007
3/2/2007
3/12/2007
3/22/2007
4/1/2007
4/11/2007
4/21/2007
5/1/2007
5/11/2007
5/21/2007
5/31/2007
6/10/2007
6/20/2007
6/30/2007
7/10/2007
7/20/2007
7/30/2007
8/9/2007
8/19/2007
8/29/2007
9/8/2007
9/18/2007
9/28/2007
10/8/2007
10/18/2007
10/28/2007
11/7/2007
11/17/2007
11/27/2007
12/7/2007
12/17/2007
12/27/2007
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
0246
First Flight Second Flight
T6C T4C T2C T0C
10 20 30 40 50 60
ADULT_MASS__MG_
0
10000
20000
30000
CD
D_
9_
6 4 2 0
10 20 30 40 50
ADULT_MASS
0
7500
15000
22500
30000
CD
D_
9_
Adult Mass vs. 9C DD Scatter plot
Adult Mass vs. 12C DDScatter plot
6 4 2 0
10 20 30 40 50
ADULT_MASS
0
7500
15000
22500
30000
CD
D_
12
_
T6C T4C T2C T0C
10 20 30 40 50 60
ADULT_MASS__MG_
0
10000
20000
30000
CD
D_
12
_
First Flight Second Flight
Adult Mass by SexANOVA
Least Squares Means
0 2 4 6
TREATMENT$
15.00
23.75
32.50
41.25
50.00
AD
ULT
_MA
SS
F
0 2 4 6
TREATMENT$
15.00
23.75
32.50
41.25
50.00
AD
ULT
_MA
SS
M
Least Squares Means
T0C T2C T4C T6C
TREATMENT$
15.00
23.75
32.50
41.25
50.00
AD
ULT
_MA
SS
__M
G_
F
T0C T2C T4C T6C
TREATMENT$
15.00
23.75
32.50
41.25
50.00
AD
ULT
_MA
SS
__M
G_
M
First Flight Second Flight
Days to PupationANOVA
Least Squares Means
T0C T2C T4C T6C
TREATMENT$
0
10
20
30
40
50
DA
YS
_T
O_
PU
PA
TIO
N
Least Squares Means
0 2 4 6
TREATMENT$
0
10
20
30
40
50
DA
Y_
TO
_P
UP
AT
ION
First Flight Second Flight
Days to PupationANOVA
First Flight Second Flight
Least Squares Means
T0C T2C T4C T6C
TREATMENT$
0.0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
DA
YS
_TO
_PU
PA
TIO
N
F
T0C T2C T4C T6C
TREATMENT$
0.0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
DA
YS
_TO
_PU
PA
TIO
N
M
Least Squares Means
0 2 4 6
TREATMENT$
0.0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
DA
Y_T
O_P
UP
AT
ION
F
0 2 4 6
TREATMENT$
0.0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
DA
Y_T
O_P
UP
AT
ION
M
.Ecological Niche Modeling.
Land coverTemperature
Precipitation
.Ecological Niche Modeling.
Land coverTemperature
Precipitation
.Historic Range.
Historic range: NH/ME to MN Since extirpated:
IL, MA, NJ, PA, ME, and Ontario
.Occurrence Data.
.Environmental Layers.
BIOCLIM variables Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling
Analysis (CCCMA). Current and A2 scenario (2080)
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) land cover
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation continuous fields
IPCC Major Soil Classifications
.Algorithm Comparisons.
.OM-GARP (Current).
•GARP depicts more complete historic range
•MaxEnt probability threshhold lower
.Algorithm Comparisons.
.MaxEnt (Current)..OM-GARP (Current).
.Algorithm Comparisons.
OM-GARP (2080)
.Algorithm Comparisons.
OM-GARP (2080)
.OM-GARP (Current). .MaxEnt (Current).
.MaxEnt (2080).
.Algorithm Comparisons.
OM-GARP (2080) .MaxEnt (2080).
1. Similar complete displacement2. Working on sub-pupulation GARP modelsa. NY/IN complete suitability issues
.Research Questions.
1. Assessing the potential of local adaptation-do different Karner sub-populations fill different climatic niches?
Sub-population-specific approach to modeling
2. Are ecological niche models capable of capturing local adaptation within a range-wide data set?
.Cluster Analysis.
Obtained values for each BIOCLIM variable at each occurrence point
PCA scatter plot-cluster?
.PCA Scatter.
•PC1=65.3%•PC2=14.6%
PC1: (Mean Temp of Driest Quarter, Temp Seasonality)
PC
2:
(Max T
em
p o
f W
arm
est
Qu
art
er,
Mean
Tem
p o
f W
ett
est
Qu
art
er)
.Preliminary Conclusions.
Question 1: Do different Karner sub-populations fill different climatic niches?
Different Optimal Conditions
Different Response Variables
Lack of Geographic Overlap
Climatic Variation
.Preliminary Conclusions.
Question 2: Are ecological niche models capable of capturing local adaptation within a range-wide data set?
Limitation Yes
.Implications.
Ecological niche range-wide outputs for fragmented ranges analyzed with caution
Management efforts: Need for sub-population specific management
plans Placement of recovery units in areas with
similar to origin climate envelopes
