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EFFECTIVE RENT REPORT
COMPSTAK.COM [email protected] +1.646.926.6707 36 Cooper Sq, 4th Fl, NY, NY 10003
M A N H A T T A N O F F I C E S N A P S H O T Q4 2 0 1 3
1 | CompStak Q4 2013 Effective Rent Report
Overview
Effective Rent Indicator: Midtown $57.32 ↑
Midtown South $50.47↑ Downtown $40.03 ↑
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Manhattan Overall Office Effective Rents
A B Overall
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Manhattan Effective Rent by Submarket
Downtown Midtown South Midtown A Midtown B
Manhattan’s office market ended the year on a positive note with strong performance in all
three major markets. Overall effective rent increased $1.29 to $52.33 this quarter - the
highest since the end of 2008. Manhattan class B space closed the year with a $0.71 increase
in effective rent to $44.48 while class A was still hovering under $61, not progressing beyond
the second quarter peak.
2 | CompStak Q4 2013 Effective Rent Report
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Manhattan Overall Effective Rent Y-O-Y Change
Year-End Review
Recovery at the Top
Trophy office leases bolstered the high-end
market in 2013. Including Och-Ziff Capital
Management’s renewal in Q2, leases with starting
rent higher than $100 comprised over 4.2% of the
total transaction numbers in 2013. The
comparable number in 2012 was only 2.7%. The
strong performance of the high-end market was
matched by the steaming hot Midtown South,
which saw class B effective rent increase 6.63% this year. Overall, Manhattan’s average
effective rent recorded the best performance since 2008, an increase of 5.08% Y-O-Y.
Midtown South - Red Hot
In 2013, Midtown South was still hot with activity shifting from Chelsea and Flatiron to
Greenwich Village and NoHo, as seen in the heat map below. The increasing rents and limited
supply in MTS resulted in a geographical spillover, which drove up the effective rent in adjacent
submarkets such as Penn Station and TriBeCa. At this point, with no evidence for a slowdown in
the tech industry and no significant increases in supply, the vibrant Midtown South market is
expected to stay in the headlines for the
foreseeable future.
Bullish 2014
With the abundance of class A availability,
Downtown is set to prosper in 2014. The tug of
war between Downtown affordability and the
traditional appeal of Midtown office space is likely
to continue. Further improvement in the economy
and increasing prices in Class B and C buildings
throughout Manhattan will ease the absorption
woes. As prices increase, Midtown South and class
B properties in both Midtown and Downtown will
continue their strong performance that was
observed in 2013.
3 | CompStak Q4 2013 Effective Rent Report
Both class A and B office sectors in Midtown performed
well in the last quarter of 2013. Class A rents closed the
year at over $66 per square foot, which was 1.66%
higher than the 2013 year average. In the meantime,
class B effective rents rose $1.55 from $44.72 to
$46.27, a new peak for 2013. Facing additional
competition from Downtown, Midtown landlords
maintained their desired starting rents by offering
concession packages at a value of 8.7% of the total
lease value. Overall in 2013, average concession
packages were in the range of 7.4% to 8.8%.
Midtown – Stalwart
57.7%
42.3%
New Renewal
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Midtown Effective Rent and Concessions
Midtown A Midtown B Concessions
New leases comprised more than half of total leased square footage for the third
consecutive quarter, indicating a healthy market in Q4. Notable transactions in this quarter
include Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman’s 225k square foot renewal at 1633 Broadway
and Mayer Brown’s relocation from 1675 Broadway to 1221 Avenue of America.
4 | CompStak Q4 2013 Effective Rent Report
Continuing the phenomenal growth in 2012, the average
Midtown South office effective rent increased 8.4% year over
year in 2013, and achieved a new average effective rent record
of $50.47 in the last quarter. While Chelsea is still the driver of
this flourishing submarket, all eyes were on 51 Astor Place as
1stdibs, St. John’s and the IBM Watson Group signed leases for
around $80 per square foot, about 60% above the average rent
in the submarket. Other notable transactions include Infor’s
expansion at 635 Avenue of the Americas and Intercept
Pharmaceuticals’ new lease at the Milk Studios Building.
Midtown South – New Heights
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Midtown South Effective Rent and Concessions
Effective Rent Concessions
Midtown South had the highest percentage of new leasing activity in Manhattan as new
leases comprised 68.6% of total leasing activity in 2013. Concession packages stabilized at
about 7% this quarter, after falling for three consecutive quarters, signaling that landlords
are achieving the new rent records by trading for higher concession costs.
86.2%
13.8%
New Renewal
5 | CompStak Q4 2013 Effective Rent Report
2013 ended with a spectacular fourth quarter in the
Downtown submarket, highlighted by GroupM’s new
lease at 3 World Trade Center. Class A transactions drove
up the average office effective rent, which climbed by
$3.05 to $40.03, bringing the overall increase since last
year to $5.39. Not only rents, but also total leasing
activity was remarkable, with Citigroup’s massive 2.63
million square feet renewal at 388-390 Greenwich Street
combined with a good flow of new leasing activity in Q4.
Downtown – Ready to Charge
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Downtown Effective Rent and Concessions
Effective Rent Concessions
With many large blocks of high-end new leases signed, such as Jones Day’s 330K new lease
at Brookfield Place, concession values increased to more than 8% of the deal value this
quarter. With brand-new prime space becoming available in the World Trade Center
submarket, we expect both rents and concessions to increase in 2014.
39.6%
60.4%
New Renewal
6 | CompStak Q4 2013 Effective Rent Report
Asking / Starting Rent Spreads
Midtown: The spread between asking and staring rent in both Class A and B remained virtually
unchanged from the third quarter. The increase in average class A starting rents indicates more
stable growth then the increases see in trophy rents in the second quarter. Landlords in Class B
properties have learned to set high expectations following surprising popularity of Class B space
earlier this year.
Midtown South: Spreads decreased slightly but stayed near same level that was seen
throughout the year, as both starting rent and asking rent continued to increase.
Downtown: Starting rent outpaced increases in asking rent for the second consecutive quarter,
and the spread shrank considerably. It is the first time Downtown's asking rent increased by
more than 5% in two consecutive quarters since 2008, signaling a promising 2014.
$71.60 $74.33 $74.18
$75.84
64.72
71.7070.06
72.07
$25.00
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Midtown Class A Rent Spread
$50.61 $52.04
$53.58 $55.24
47.4245.98 46.10
47.61
$25.00
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Midtown Class B Rent Spread
$45.33 $46.79 $46.81 $47.79
36.13 35.7138.50
41.74
$25.00
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Downtown Rent Spread
$53.45 $56.25
$57.41 $58.13
47.14
50.92 50.97
53.20
$25.00
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Midtown South Rent Spread
7 | CompStak Q4 2013 Effective Rent Report
Notable Transactions in 2013
ID Tenant Address ID Tenant Address
1 Citigroup 388-390 Greenwich Street 11 Hughes Hubbard & Reed 1 Battery Park Plaza
2 Sony Corporation of America 550 Madison Avenue 12 Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman 1633 Broadway
3 Macy's 11 Penn Plaza 13 Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) 501 7th Avenue
4 Simpson Thacher & Bartlett 425 Lexington Avenue 14 AppNexus 28-40 West 23rd Street
5 GroupM 3 World Trade Center 15 Capital One 299 Park Avenue
6 CME Group 1 North End Avenue 16 NYC Health and Hospital Corporation 55 Water Street
7 L'Oreal 10 Hudson Yards 17 Patterson Belknap Webb & Tyler 1133 Avenue Of The Americas
8 Jefferies & Company 520 Madison Avenue 18 Mayer Brown 1221 Avenue Of The Americas
9 Jones Day 250 Vesey Street 19 Cornell University 575 Lexington Avenue
10 Metro-North Commuter Railroad 420 Lexington Avenue 20 HarperCollins 195 Broadway
Citigroup’s 2.36
million SQFT renewal
is the largest
transaction of 2013
GroupM will
consolidate more
than 2,000 employees
to its new WTC office
Metro-North renewed and
expanded with a 20-year
lease at the Graybar Building Clothing giant PVH renewed
and expanded in ESRT’s 501
7th Avenue
About
About CompStak™: CompStak is the world’s first comprehensive database of commercial lease comparable data. We gather our data from our users, a committed community of commercial real estate brokers, appraisers and researchers. Our analysts review all of the data we receive to ensure data integrity and quality.
The information contained in this report was gathered from CompStak users and other sources that we consider reliable. While we strive for perfection, this report may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
* Effective Rent takes into consideration the rent paid for every year of the lease, as well as landlord concessions such as free months and tenant improvement allowance.
The Effective Rent Report is produced by CompStak, Inc. For comments or questions, please contact Noam Shahar: [email protected] or Wei-Chen Yu: [email protected].