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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
1Indian Meteorological Society-Shillong Chapter North Eastern Space Applications Centre
Effect of Climate change on various Rainfall events and itsglobal Teleconnections over South Peninsular India during
Northeast Monsoon
Dr. Murali Nageswara Rao,
UCAR Visiting Scientist,
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction. Email: [email protected], [email protected] , [email protected]
M.M.Nageswararao1, 2*, M.C. Sannan3 and U. C. Mohanty3
1University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA 2NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, CPC International Desks, College Park, USA
3School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, IIT Bhubaneswar, Argul, Jatni, Odisha
Author(s)
Presented by:
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Introduction
In recent decades, a significant increase in global temperature has beenobserved and some of the findings indicate that the last three decadeshave been successively warmer on the Earth’s surface than anypreceding decade since 1850 (IPCC 2014).
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Introduction
The changes in temperature primarily affect the rate of evaporationfrom the oceans and leading to an increase in the water vapor contentin the atmosphere all over the globe (Trenberth 2011), Hence leadingto a huge change in the rainfall distribution and its variability.
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Introduction
Impacts of climate change are felt not only at a global levelbut also at a regional and local scale, Some effects compriseof fluctuating droughts and excess rains, changes in cycloneintensity, sea level rise, heat waves etc.
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Introduction
• Parts of India experience rainfalls through two monsoon seasons,the Southwest monsoon(SWM) and Northeast monsoon(NEM).
• About 80% of the annual rainfall in India is contributed by SWM ,however a large portion of Southern part of India that falls underthe rain shadow region, receive most of its rainfall in the NEMseason (Doraiswamy, 1946).
Northeast Monsoon Southwest Monsoon
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Introduction
• NEM season lasts from October to December and it is of a hugesocietal importance as it supports the main cultivation season (Rabi)over South Peninsular India (Krishna Rao and Jagannadhan, 1953;Kumar et al. 2007).
• The variability of NEM rainfall (28%) is more compared to SWMrainfall (10%)(Nageswararao, 1999).
Source : Kumar et al., 2007
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Introduction
• A few studies have pointed out that the NEM rainfall have strongrelationship with ocean-atmosphere phenomena such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Deand Mukhopadhyay 1999; Bhanu Kumar et al. 2004; Kripalani andKumar 2004; Kripalani and Kumar (2004) and Rajeevan et al.(2012))
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Motivation & Objective
• Any irregular alteration of rainfall due to changes in regional climate
may cause a severe threat to the sustainability of life.
• Hence, a detailed study of the rainfall characteristics and its events
over this region is vital for provision of information to risk
management sectors for development of sustainable resources for
the region in the present global warming era.
• The Aim of this study is to analyze the long–term climatology,
variability and trends in the daily rainfall events over SPI at a sub-
divisional level during NEM and it’s changes in the recent period
under the influence of climate change.
• A necessary investigation of the variability of these rainfall events
and the associated rainfall with climate indices such as South
Oscillation Index (SOI), Niño3.4 SST, IOD mode index (IODMI),
ISMR is also conducted for the same.
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Study Domain
• SPI consists of the six meteorological
subdivisions, Coastal Andhra Pradesh
(CAP), Rayalaseema (RS), South
Interior Karnataka (SIK), Coastal
Karnataka (CK), Kerala (KL), and Tamil
Nadu (TN) as shown in the Figure .
• During the NEM season, India receives
about 11% of its annual rainfall, while
subdivisions of SPI receive 17–49% of
their annual rainfall and particularly TNreceives more (40–60%)
CAP- Coastal Andhra Pradesh
RS- Rayalaseema
SIK- South Interior Karnataka
CK- Coastal Karnataka
KL- Kerala
TN- Tamil Nadu
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Data and Methodology
• The high-resolution gridded daily rainfall analysis dataset (0.25°×
0.25°) from 1901 to 2016 by the India Meteorological Department
(IMD) is used to extensively analyze the rainfall.
• The rainfall events were classified into seven categories as per IMD
criteria as shown in the table below.
Descriptive Term used for event Rainfall amount in mm
Dry 0
Wet > 0
Very light Rain (VLR) 0.1- 2.4
Light Rain (LR) 2.5 – 7.5
Moderate Rain (MR) 7.5 – 35.5
Rather Heavy Rain(RHR) 35.5 – 64.4
Heavy Rain (HR) 64.4 – 124.4
Very Heavy Rain (VHR) 124.4 – 244.4
Extremely Heavy Rain (EHR) >244.4
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Data and Methodology
• The entire study is conducted in 2 time slices within the study
period (1901 to 2016),the pre-warming (1901–1958) period [P1]
and recent warming period (1959–2016) [P2].
• The daily grid point rainfall events aggregated over each
subdivision were used to inspect the various long-term statistical
features such as Climatology, inter-annual variability (IAV), and
linear trends of the daily rainfall events over six subdivisions and
SPI as a whole.
• Simple linear regression methods are used for computing the
trends. And the Student’s t-test has been applied to discern the
statistical significance of the trends and differences between the
two periods.
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Data and Methodology
• The secular variations in the relationship of various NEM rainfall
events with SOI, Niño 3.4 region SST, DMI, and summer monsoon
rainfall over SPI have been obtained by finding the sliding
correlations for a 31-years moving window for the period 1901–
2016.
• The data for climate indices (SOI, Niño 3.4 region SST and DMI) are
obtained from the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) data
repository by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov) while the time series of
summer monsoon rainfall over SPI is prepared using the IMD high-
resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily gridded rainfall dataset.
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and Discussion
The spatial distribution of
NEM (OND) rainfall in mm
over SPI for the study period
(1901–2016).
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and Discussion
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and Discussion
Fig. 5: Same as Fig. 5, but for frequency of various NEM rainfall (Wet, VLR, LR, MR,
RHR, HR, VHR and EHR) events.
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and Discussion
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionNormalized time series of accumulated rainfall & frequency of various
NEM rainfall events over South Peninsular India
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionNormalized time series of accumulated rainfall & frequency of various
NEM rainfall events over South Peninsular India
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionPercentage of various categorical rainfall events in NEM wet days and
their percentage contribution of rainfall over SPI
29.4 days
339 mm
SPI CAP RS
23.5 days
315 mm
22.2 days
226 mm
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and Discussion
22.2 days
203 mm
26.4 days
253 mm
42.3 days
494 mm
38.4 days
465 mm
SIK CK KL TN
Percentage of various categorical rainfall events in NEM wet days and
their percentage contribution of rainfall over SPI
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionSub-division wise Climatology and IAV of NEM rainfall over SPI
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionSub-division wise Climatology and IAV of NEM rainfall events over SPI
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionContribution (in %) of various rainfall events to increase/decrease in the NEM
seasonal rainfall of the recent period (P2) with respect to earlier period (P1).
The line plot indicates the rainfall difference (P2-P1).
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionSecular variations of simultaneous relationships of various NEM rainfall
events and associated seasonal rainfall with various climate Indices.
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionSecular variations of simultaneous relationships of various NEM rainfall
events and associated seasonal rainfall with various climate Indices.
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Results and DiscussionSecular variations of simultaneous relationships of various NEM rainfall
events and associated seasonal rainfall with various climate Indices.
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Paper ID:<202010068 >
Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Summary and Conclusion
• In the recent warming period, the seasonal NEM rainfall increased remarkably over TNand RS, while a widely spread decrease is noticed over KL, SIK, and CK. However, theIAV is found to have increased in all the subdivisions and particularly more in TN andKL.
• It was found that the contribution of MR events to the seasonal total rainfall over SPI ismore compared to rest of the rainfall events. Although, in the recent period, MR eventscontributions to the NEM rainfall have remarkably decreased while the contributionsfrom high-intensity rainfall events (RHR, HR, VHR and EHR) have increased. The hugedecrease in MR events leads to decrease the Seasonal NEM rainfall.
• The various NEM rainfall events and associated NEM rainfall have a promisingrelationship with SOI, Niño–3.4 regions SST, DMI, and ISMR. However, theserelationships vary from the period–to–period in a wave manner throughout the century.The relationship of NEM rainfall with ENSO is found to have increased in the recentyears after 1995. But the relationship of the same with IODM remain comparativelylower.
• This study is very useful in determining the effects on various sectors due to thevariability of heavy rainfall events over SPI during this season and assists the riskmanagement sectors in adapting advanced technologies for a sustainable future in thepresent global warming era.
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Weather and Climate Services over Mountainous Regions
Acknowledgements
Thank You for
AttentionPresenting Author contact details
Dr. Malasala Murali Nageswara Rao, UCAR Visiting Scientist,
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, college park, MD, USA
Email: [email protected], [email protected] , [email protected]
A heartfelt gratitude for India Meteorological Department (IMD) for
providing observed gridded rainfall datasets and other data taken
from the Web sites.