-
989
- The Study on the Relativity between Regional Power Load and
Climate
-Multiple Linear Regression Model
[email protected]
[email protected]
Key words: regional load, regression model, relativity
study.
(E/S)(P/S)(D/S)
(S/S) 4 E/S 345KV S/S
(11.4/22.8KV)
-
990
1 E/S(7 )(1 )
1300 33 oC 17 oC 16oC
05:00 27 oC 07:00 14 oC 13 oC 2 E/S ( 7 )( 1
) 05:00 76%
07:00 86% 10% 12:00 62% 14:00
77% 13%
3
4
5 6
7
8
9
10
1 E/S
2 E/S
3
2010/7
2010/1
2010/7 2010/1
-
991
4
5
6
7
8
-
992
9
10
1990
,1998
6
6
,1992
,2004
,2006,2004
et al,2008 et
al,2009
-
993
E/SP/S D/S
(E/S)(P/S)(D/S)(S/S)
E/S P/S D/S P/S D/S
2006
,2006
345kv 161kv E/SP/SD/S S/S
24
111213
1 24 24
S1
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
%
11
S1
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
%
12
-
994
S1
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
%
13
1 24
(%) (%) (%)
00 45.159 2.534 52.307
01 57.348 21.552 21.100
02 52.415 21.520 26.065
03 41.207 40.282 18.511
04 18.528 71.558 9.914
05 41.205 46.461 12.335
06 14.564 75.726 9.710
07 42.173 37.717 20.109
08 29.814 61.694 8.492
09 48.709 33.462 17.829
10 28.372 56.516 15.111
11 32.295 47.582 20.123
12 50.586 34.103 15.310
13 31.936 46.651 21.413
14 53.028 19.485 27.487
15 56.383 11.037 32.580
16 50.829 9.913 39.258
17 44.355 42.838 12.806
18 19.613 72.890 7.497
19 41.349 47.277 11.375
20 26.582 66.444 6.973
21 22.618 72.132 5.250
22 52.842 21.183 25.975
23 58.651 17.731 23.618
ARIMA
-
995
(1995)""
1995" ARIMA " ARIMA
J.C. Hwang2001 Assessment
of Air Condition Load Management by Load Survey in Taipower
(2001)Temperature Effect to Distribution System Load Profiles
and Feeder Losses
3
(6 ~9 )
C.S. Chen et al.1997 Temperature Adaptive Switching Operation
for Distribution System
(2000)
1.
E/S(P/S)(D/S)
2.
EMS 5
3.
(Multiple Regression Model)()
()(Multiple Regression Model)
Douglas C. Montgomery,1999Trevor Hastie, Robert
Tibshirani,1999
,1975,2000LAPIN,2000Amir Aczel,2009,1994 iY i
0 1 1 2 2 3 3i i i i jY .(1)
-
996
iY i=1,,n
j j=1,2,3 0
ji i=1,,nj=1,2,3
j i=1,,n
() 0
1
: 0 , 1 , . . . . . ,: 0
i
i
H i nH
i
tS
(2)
P 1, 2n
t , 0H
0
E/S
E/S
D/S (Customer Information
-
997
System) 76.5%
14 D/S
15 D/S
16 R2 0.68
17 R2 0.151 18
R2 0.753
19 2010/07/05
3
202010/07/05 10
(T.S.T) 4MW(T.S.H) 0.4MW
14 D/S
15 D/S
16 D/S
-
998
17 D/S
18 D/S
19 D/S
20 D/S
P/S (Customer
Information System) 73.5%
21 P/S
22 P/S
T.S.T T.S.H
-
999
23 R2 0.714
24 R2 0.076 25
R2 0.716
26 2010/07/05
27
10:00 T.S.T 15MW T.S.H 0.2MW
21 P/S
22 P/S
23 P/S
-
1000
24 P/S
25 P/S
26 P/S
27 P/S
T.S.H
T.S.T
-
1001
28 E/S
29 E/S
30 R2 0.096 31
R2 0.022 32
R2 0.157
33 2010/07/05
34
T.S.T
28 E/S
29 E/S
30 E/S
-
1002
31 E/S
32 E/S
33 E/S
34 E/S
35 P/S 2010/12/13()~2010/12/19()MWH
12/13~12/15 12/16 36 P/S
2010/12/13()~2010/12/19() 12/13~12/16 12/17
37 P/S 2010/12/13()~2010/12/19()
T.S.T
T.S.H
-
1003
12/13~12/16 38
12/13~12/16 12/14 12/15 12/13
12/16
39 P/S 2010/12/13~2010/12/16
12/15 12/14 12/13 12/16 4
40 P/S 20OC 50MW80MW
54MW 20MW 14OC 60MW 10MW
10OC 35.4MW 1.5MW
41
42 2010/12/15 42T.S.T.
10:00 1OC
1MW T.S.H. 1%
0.25MW
P/S 2010/12/132010/12/19
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17
2010/12/18 2010/12/19
MWH
35 P/S MWH
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
:
OC
2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 36 P/S
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15 2010/12/16
-
1004
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
:
%
2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 37 P/S
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0:00
0:50
1:40
2:30
3:20
4:10
5:00
5:50
6:40
7:30
8:20
9:10
10:00
10:50
11:40
12:30
13:20
14:10
15:00
15:50
16:40
17:30
18:20
19:10
20:00
20:50
21:40
22:30
23:20
:
MW
2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 38 P/S (MW)
39 P/S
2010/12/14
2010/12/16 2010/12/13
2010/12/15
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15 2010/12/16
-
1005
40 P/S
41 P/S
42 P/S
1~2
17OC 75%
0.25%
T.S.T
T.S.H
-
1006
2010 (7 )
60%
T.S.T
E/S
(S/S) S/S
S/S (FCDS)
[1] ,2010/9
[2] 1998/10
[3] 1992~2008
[4] 2004
[5] 2006
[6] Oracle2004
[7]
,2008/12
[8]
2009/11
[9] ,2006/9
[10] ,
pp.668-672, 84/11
[11] ARIMA ,
PP.626-630, 84/11
[12] J.C. Hwang, Assessment of Air Condition Load Management by
Load Survey in TaipowerIEEE TRANS.on
POWER SYSTEM VOL.16, NO.4, 11/2001, pp910-915
[13] C.S. Chen, M.S. Kang, J.C. Hwang, C.W. Huang Temperature
Effect to Distribution System Load Profiles and
Feeder LossesIEEE TRANS.on POWER SYSTEM
VOL.16,NO.4,11/2001,pp916-921
[14] C.S. Chen, J.C. Hwang, C.W. Huang Application of load
survey systems to Proper Tariff Design IEEE
Trans.on Power systems, Vol.12, NO.4, pp.1746~1751, 1997/11
[15]
,pp126-130,2000/11
-
1007
[16] Douglas C. MontgomeryAPPLIED STATISTICS and PROBABILITY for
ENGINEERS Second Edition ,John
Wiley & Sons, Inc ,1999
[17] Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani The Elements of
Statistical LearningSpring,2001
[18] ,1975
[19] ,2000
[20] LAPIN Modern Engineering StatisticsInternational Thomson
Publishing Asia,2000
[21] Amir Aczel Complete Business Statistics The McGraw-Hill
Companies ,Inc,2009
[22] ,1994
[232010/01
[242010 2010
