Education Funding:What is the Problem?

Dr. Voucher’s Remedy

03-0403-04

BrownBrown

WilsonWilson DavisDavis

DeukmejianDeukmejian

CA Spending per Student below US average since Prop 13

CA Collections by Source as %

California General Fund Collections

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1964 1994 2000 2003

Other Taxes

Personal IncomeTax

Sales Tax

Bank andCorporation Tax

CA Collections by Source as $

California General Fund Collections

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

1993 1999 2000

Other Taxes

PersonalIncome Tax

Sales Tax

Bank andCorporation Tax

Average Salaries for Educators

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

1975-76

1980-81

1985-86

1990-91

1995-96

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

Superintendents

Superintendents(2000 Dollars)

H.S. Principals

H.S. Principals(2000 Dollars)

Teachers-Average

Teachers-Average (2000Dollars)Teachers-Beginning

Teachers-Beginning (2000Dollars)

Average Salary, Average Salary, Corrections Corrections

Officer,Officer,CaliforniaCalifornia

Beginning Salary, Beginning Salary, Corrections Officer,Corrections Officer,Santa Clara CountySanta Clara County

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

1980 1990 2000

Top 5 Percent

Top Fifth

Fourth Fifth

Middle Fifth

Second Fifth

Poorest Fifth

California Personal Income Growth by Groups (1999 dollars)

Source: California Budget Project, www.cbp.orgSource: California Budget Project, www.cbp.org

Plenty of Money Where I Sit!

High Yield Investments!

SANDAG Workforce Report:“Labor Tightest at Bachelor”

Labor Supply and Demand by Education

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

No College Associate Deg Bachelor Deg Graduate Deg

2000 Labor Demand

2000 Labor Supply

Over Demand of No College! Over Supply of Highly Educated,

(150,000)

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

No College Associate Deg Bachelor Deg Graduate Deg

Educated Workforce

State Funding vs NAEP Reading

200

210

220

230

240

$4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000

State Funding Per Student 2000

NAEP 2002 Reading Grade 4

CaliforniaCalifornia$6,045 = 205$6,045 = 205

ConnecticutConnecticut$9,620 = 229$9,620 = 229

State Funding vs NAEP Reading

240

250

260

270

280

$4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000

State Funding Per Student 2000

NAEP 2002 Reading Grade 8 CaliforniaCalifornia$6,045 = 250$6,045 = 250

ConnecticutConnecticut$9,620 = 267$9,620 = 267

NAEP 2000 Science

• Show California and/or another scatter plot

“Crossing the Chasm”of Innovation Adoption

Th

e C

hasm

Th

e C

hasm

Early MarketEarly Market

Enthus-Enthus-iastsiasts

Vision-Vision-ariesaries

PragmatistsPragmatistsConservativesConservativesSkepticsSkeptics

Mass MarketMass Market

“Crossing the Chasm”of Innovation Adoption

Th

e C

hasm

Th

e C

hasm

Enthus-Enthus-iastsiasts

Vision-Vision-ariesaries

PragmatistsPragmatistsConservativesConservativesSkepticsSkeptics

Innovation Innovation dominates; dominates;

features, features, functions, functions,

performanceperformance

User experience User experience dominates; dominates;

complete solutions, complete solutions, commodity pricing, commodity pricing,

ease of useease of use

California API (Academic Performance Index)• Comprehensive index of student

achievement• Scaled from 200 to 1000• CAT/6 (norm-ref test, all content areas)• STAR (standards test, Math, Language

Arts, History/Social Science)• CASHEE (HS exit exam, pass/no pass)

SD County Current API Status

519

5064

83

107

86

64

44

10

50

100

150

200

450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 999

API (Academic Performance Index)

# Schools

2002 Current Status 2013 Desired Status

SD County Desired API Status

519

5064

83

107

86

64

44

1

160

180

150

90

40

0

50

100

150

200

450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 999

API (Academic Performance Index)

# Schools

2002 Current Status 2013 Desired Status

SD County Schools API 2002Counted by State Rank Decile

20

4643

3743

6875

59

6872

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

485-5611

528-6042

566-6383

596-6694

628-6975

643-7296

669-7627

695-7988

721-8459

767-92810

#Schools in each API Decile of California Schools (2002)

SD Schools Rank Favorablyin “Similar School” Rankings

1117

35

4447

6459

89

73

91

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

485-6801

496-7962

485-8943

522-8694

506-8575

529-9106

527-9007

555-9228

561-9289

641-92010

# Schools in each API Decile of Similar Schools (2002)

API “Similar School” Criteria

• All schools with at least 100 students are also ranked in deciles by school type when compared to schools with similar characteristics. – Pupil mobility– Pupil ethnicity – Pupil socioeconomic status – Percentage of teachers who are fully credentialed – Percentage of teachers who hold emergency

credentials– Percentage of pupils who are English language learners– Average class size per grade level– Whether the schools operate multitrack year-round

educational programs

Comparing State Rank with Similar Schools Rank

4

11 13

24 26

4845

75

85

6055

38

22 22

20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

# Schools with State Rank Below/Above Similar Schools Rank(-7 means State Rank was high but Similar Schools Rank was low)

Our Interest in Schools with a Positive Difference• Positive difference:

– Modest State Rank with high Similar Schools Rank– Must be doing something right with challenging

demographics, ethnicity, socioeconomic status

• Difference of +7 deciles: 2 schools in SD Unified– Wilson Middle, SDUSD, API=561, State=2, Similar=9– Edison Elem, SDUSD, API=585, State =2, Similar=9

• Difference of +6 deciles: 22 schools in 7 districts– Escondido Elem (1), National (3), Oceanside (3), San

Diego City Unified (10), San Ysidro (2)., Sweetwater (3). Valley Center (1)

• AFT teacher salary survey, 1989 to 2000, CA slipped from 5th to 8th, 43rd in percent increase

– http://www.aft.org/press/2001/051601.html

• Per-capita income CA 1990-2000– http://countingcalifornia.cdlib.org/matrix/c137.html

• Paywatch CEO compensation– http://www.aflcio.org/corporateamerica/paywatch/pa

y/

• Pepperdine Loop– http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/024/loop.html

Class size

• http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/pub_snf_report.asp• http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2002/snf_report/

table_10.asp• Calif 1990-1 vs 2000-1 #students, #teachers,

% increases• http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2002/snf_report/table_

02.asp• Calif 2000-1 ratio of student/teacher by grade

levels• http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2002/snf_report/table_

01_1.asp• Calif 2000-1 number of students/grade

• http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/reading/results2002/schsystchar-c.asp– State funding/student, teacher salary,

student/teacher ratio

• http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2002/digest2001/tables/dt168.asp– State funding/student 1950’s to 1999 by school year

• http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/reading/results2002/stateavgscale-g4.asp– Reading scores grade 4 by state; see link to

complete results with errors

Some Business Expectations about the Education System• Accountability without consequences• Fire the under-performing principals

– What are controllables?

• Business models– Close underperforming stores/divisions– Pink slip underperforming employees– Stores = schools– Managers = principals– Employees = teachers– Customers = students

• Bottom line?– Profit strategies = Maximize revenue, socialize

costs– Revenue controlled by policy makers, based on

#students, property tax revenues

• Union are the problem– But what about salaries, working conditions,

productivity investments, professional respect vs NCLB research

• Ed Code rules– Policy makers frequently change the priorities,

funding, accountability, mandates

• System serves all students– Drop out and get picked up by law enforcement,

go to Court Schools!– Have special needs, get Individual Education Plan,

costing 2-3x regular student

• Myths• Unions• Technology• Vouchers & Charter

Schools– Selective customers

Workforce points

• Biggest number of jobs in high-school-only category

• Oversupply of highly educated people• Shift in need seems to drive policy

requests• Loss of jobs in manufacturing and huge

increase in services

Productivity slide

• California 20 students/teacher, Connecticut 13 students/teacher

• California spends $6,000 per student, Connecticut spends $9,600 per student

• Workload is 50% higher, spending is 50% lower• Tenure is comparable, average salary

comparable• Test scores on NAEP 2002 Reading Grade 4 & 8

show linear relationship between increased funds per student and increased NAEP scores