Edmonton Alberta 2014 Housing Forecast Seminar

8/13/2019 Edmonton Alberta 2014 Housing Forecast Seminar

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Annualized Building Permit Activity to October


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Annualized Industrial Permit Activity to Octob


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Annualized Residential Housing Unit Starts to Octob


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Sherwood Park Single Family Land Inventories


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B$LJ#4$( B'(&-+" O/$(

Approx: 400 acr

Total Population

(proposed)

Build out: 15-20

Two Developers


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Exp

Shell Chemicals

ShellRefineryShell Upgra

Construstorage


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Demographic Information

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Labour market expectations for Sturgeon CountyA growing workforce as the regions economy expands

Worker type: Trades & apprenticeshipsLabour force: 11,064 peopleEmployment rate: 67.7%Unemployment rate: 4.6%

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Sturgeon Countys Economic Impact within the Capital Region

A clear indication of economic progress

2012 GDP: $798 mil or 1.4% of Edmonton CMA GDPIndustry Clusters: Value Added Agriculture | Manufacturing | Advanced EnergyCommodities: Grains | Fertilizer | PetrochemicalsBusiness count: 1,571 (Dec 2012)

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Development in Sturgeon County in 2013

Value of development permits (Nov YTD): $1.64 mil Commercial, $372.48 mil - IndustrialValue of building permits (Nov YTD): $1.74 mil Commercial, $17.64 mil - IndustrialAssessed values: 500% increase in Sturgeon Industrial Park over the last 24 months

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41%E8/ Q"/" L*++:F*+,RO

Recent Growth

.&/0$,12'( 3445 3464 3466 3463

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Population (2011): 19,578Growth rate: 5.5%Population density: 9 people per km2High growth areas: Morinville |Gibbons | Sturgeon Valley

2013 (CMHC Up to end ofNovember)S.C. Housing starts: 114

Under Construction: 99

There are residential hot spots inthe region

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Subdivision activity in 2013Multi lot subdivisions applications: 2Single lot subdivision applications: 48

Residential growth challengesinfrastructure capacity

Primary residential nodes identified

for growth:VilleneuveSturgeon ValleyCardiff

List of pending projects:C diff Rd

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Phase 1 Construction: Spring 2013 | Operational in 2017 | $5.7 Billion Capital CostProducts: Clean Performance Diesel | Diluent | Naphtha | Low Sulphur Vacuum Gas Oil | Light Ends (propane, butEmployment: 3,000 people on site during construction | 500 permanent jobsTransportation Impact:70 per cent of its workers by busSpin-offjobs: Approximately 1,000

North West Redwater Partnership Sturgeon Refinery

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Williams Energy

Undertaking several projects at theirSturgeon County site including:

Redwater Olefins Facility (ROF) De-ethanizer project construction currentlytaking place, to allow for ethane/ethylene

extraction, aiming to be in-service in Q4 2013Detailed engineering for futuredebottlenecking at their existing site, to allowfor fractionation of more offgas liquids fromCNRL Horizon, estimated start up in May 2015.

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Access Pipeline Working on construction of their Northeast

expansion, a 42 pipeline from Christina Laketo their Sturgeon Terminal.

Initial capacity of 350,000 barrels of blendedbitumen per day.

Capital cost of $1 Billion 600 construction workers Scheduled to be operational by 2015.

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Pembina PipelineRedwater Fractionator and Storage (RFS) Project II

Twinning existing 73,000 bpd ethane-plus fractionator capacity at curre Subject to regulatory and environmental approvals Estimated Capital Cost of $415 million Expected to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2015

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Medium Industrial Projects

ClearStream Currently constructing a Head Office and fabric McAsphalt Currently constructing a $10 million Asphalt blen Univar Currently constructing a $8.5 million trans load facilit

bulk products such as methanol and caustic soda to Fort McM

Magnum Cementing Services Currently constructing a $1 maid their oil field services company.

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NWR: Partnership with CBI for proposed High Load

Corridor

Increased industrial development prompts

attention to infrastructure

Avg. Price of Land (SIP): $200,000.00/acre for subdivided |$103,000/acre for unsubdivided lotsOffsite Levy: $70,168 per Ha or $28,395/acreIncrease in Assessed Value: 500% in 12 to 18 months

Avg. Price of Land (S.C. AIH): $10,000 to 50,000/acre

Planned Infrastructure Projects

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Servicing Improvements Highlights

Water and Sanitary servicing along TWP552 is complete

Reservoir is currently being done and isexpected to be completed in 2014

Water servicing along RR 225 will becompleted in 2014

Water and Sanitary servicing alongEstates Way has started and will be

completed in 2014

Water and Sanitary servicing parallel toHighway 825 is almost complete

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Serviced Properties:

1980 - 2012

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2013

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2014

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Infrastructure Improvements

Municipal Road Improvements

TWP 552 Reconstruction for Heavy Pavement and Highway 825Intersection Reconstruction and Heavy Pavement will be comp

early 2014

RR 225 Reconstruction for Heavy Pavement and RR 225/HighwaIntersection Upgrade will take place in 2014

Anticipated closure of current Bunge Access offof Highway 825

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Infrastructure ImprovementsProvincial Road Improvements

Alberta Transportation has hired Genivar to review the InterHighways 15/37/825. There are supposed to be open houses

to review Genivars proposed potential options.

Ultimately, Genivar is expected to provide their recommenda

the end of March 2014 with the hopes of getting the project ATs Three Year Plan.

Highway 825 re-alignment is currently in ATs Three Year Plan Highway 825 will eventually be widened

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Villeneuve Airports Economic Impact

Logistics to enhance economic capacity

Business: 16 businesses in Aircraftflight training | Fixed-wing aircraft &helicopter maintenance | aviation operationsEconomic Impact: $31 mil output | $1.3 mil taxes | 90 direct jobsInvestments to date: $5-6 million runway extension, upgrade ILSPlanned: Utility lines | Industrial lots

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Start in Sturgeon Website

2013 Estimates

Visits: 2,000

Page Views: 15,000

Pages/Visit: 7.5

Avg. Visit Duration: two minutes

NEW LOOK COMING SOON!!

Promoting Economic Development

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Albertas Industrial Heartland AssociationEstablished in 1998, the AIHA is a collaborative effort of Sturgeon CounEdmonton, Fort Saskatchewan, Lamont County and Strathcona County. Wtogether, the municipalities are committed to sustainable development economic development and planning.

Alberta's Industrial Heartland is one of the world's most attractive locatifor chemical, petrochemical, oil, and gas investment. It is also Canada's lahydrocarbon processing region. The region's 40+ companies several beinscale, provide fuels, fertilizers, power, petrochemicals and more to provinglobal consumers.

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S@1 T1U/ V"N1 2D WAXW Q1N1625E1#/

1. Huge amount of interest from Asian petrochemical companies in Alber2. AIHA currently working with a number of different companies intereste

investing in the region

3. Continued interest as shale gas potential is further explored.

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???G"6K1%/"1#1%0&56$CGB"

The Vision To make Alberta the worlds leading petrochemical produce The Partners AIHA, Williams, Nova Chemicals, NWR, Enhance Energy, Ag Alberta Plus is aiming to attract additional partners, engage the public an

government to encourage further hydrocarbon and value-added produc

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Summary

Lots of growth taking place throughout the region Vast amount of medium and heavy industrial projects underway and Upgraded infrastructure is opening up new opportunities AIH potential is gaining more and more global credibility and recog 2014 is shaping up to be a very busy year

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Thank

F f

Edmontons


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Business & Financial

Climate

Realtors Housing ForecSeminar

A d


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Agenda

Recent Developments Global Context Canada & Alberta Energy Prices Regional Current Indicators

The Longer Term Outlook

Global Context


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Global Context

An uneven and anaemicrecovery continues

Forecast growth rates inmost regions have been

lowered Euro zone is experiencinga double dip recession

Global financial marketsremain fragile

2014 should be a better

% Real Grow

China

Emerging

World

US

Canada

E A


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Canada, AlbEdmonto

Canadian worsened inthe first half

Sluggish US expansionmoderated growth in2012

Alberta will continue tooutperform nationalaverage

2014 very good for GDP& employment growth in

% Real Growth

0 1 2

City of

Edmonton

The Region

Alberta

Oil Prices


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Oil PricesWest Texas Intermediate

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

$USB

bl

Canadian Discount Retur


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Canadian Discount Retur

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

8 08 9 09 0 10 1 11 2 12 3

Natural Gas Prices


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Natural Gas PricesHenry Hub

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

$US/mmBtu

Job Growth Continues


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The Regions rate of jobgrowth among the fastestof any large municipality.

Very strong growth in Q22013.

Growing labour force hasmoderated wagepressures.

Recent strong job gainsmay point to labour

Unemployment

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

ec

un

ec

un

ec

un

%

Employment Growth Across M


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p y

0.98

1.00

1.03

1.05

1.08

1.10

1.13

1.15

Edmonto

Toronto

Calgary

Montrea

Vancouv

Ottawa

Edmontons Labour Marke

Powers Ahead


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Powers Ahead

Outstanding growth inemployment labourforce and population.

Gains are high paying,full time jobs.

Very strong migrationinto the region.

Implications Strongmomentum in the localeconomy will sustain

% Annual Grow

August

da

Alb

erta

Edmo

nton

Growth in Average Weekl

Earnings in Edmonton


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Earnings in Edmonton

$920

$940

$960

$980

$1,000

$1,020

$1,040

$1,060

Consumer Inflation Moving


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g

The regions year-over-year inflation rate pickedup.

Gasoline, rental rates andnatural gas prices are

beginning to move up. Inflation will pick up

somewhat from currentlevels. Forecast is for2.5% the by early 2014.

Consumer Price

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec

11

%

Sources of Growth in EdmonYear to September 2013


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Year to September 2013

Educational Services

Business, Building and Other Support Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Public administration

Trade

Utilities

All Industries

Other services

Accommodation and food services

Transportation and Warehousing

Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas

Construction

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing

Manufacturing

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Growth Moderates


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The Region has enjoyed aquicker recovery asmanufacturing andconstruction activitypicked up speed through

2011 and 2012. Over the medium term the

city growth rate convergeswith that of the region.

Strong in migration allows 12

3

4

5

6

%

Real GDP G

Risks to the Outlook


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Downside

Continuing discountfor Cdn oil noadditional pipeline

capacity

Consumer confidencefalters

European financial

Upside U.S. recovery

momentum

Europe patchefinancial issuereturns to fast

growth profile

China and oth

Q & A


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John RoseChief Economist

Financial Services and Utilities

5th Floor, Chancery Hall

Edmonton, Alberta, T5J 2C3

(780) 496-6070

[email protected]

Global Market Access:The Rain Cloud


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Supply is Growing


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Market Reaction to Access Is


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Oil and Gas Drives BusinesInvestment


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Diversifying Exports - BuildingStrengths


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Demands on Infrastructure AGrowing


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Alberta Projects of $5 milliongreater


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Canadian Far North PetroleResources


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For more information about thEdmonton Chamber or on th

presentation contact us at:

(780) 426-4620


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REALTORS Association of Edmonton


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2014 Edmonton Housing Forecast

Greg Steele, President

REALTORS Association of Edmonton

2014 RAE Board of Directors! President: Greg Steele! Past President: Darrell Cook! P id t El t G T t lt


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! President Elect: Geneva Tetreault! Vice President: Steve Sedgwick! Director: Pat Liviniuk! Director: Sheldon Johnston! Director: Michelle Patterson-Nipp! Director: Dwight Streu! Director: Shirley Williams

Residential Sales

1350

All Res Sales 2011-13


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450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec

Sales

2013

2012

2011

Inventory

7,000

All Res Inventory 2011-13


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-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

3 year trend line

SFD and Condo Sales

600

CMA Condo List/Sold 2011-1013SFD Sales 2011-13


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200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sales

2011 Sales

2012 Sales

2013 Sales

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

AxisTitle

2011

2012

2013

Single Family to Condo Sales Ratio

17055

Condo Compared to All Res Sales


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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5073 4426 4435 4412 5059

16746

1433914891 15812

CONDO

All Res

Residential Property Prices

360 000

370,000

All Res Prices 2011-13


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310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

350,000

360,000


2011

2012

2013

Average Price for SFD and Condos

420 000

430,000

SFD Avg Prices 2011-13

270,000

CMA Condo Prices 2011-13


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360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

410,000

420,000

Jan April July Oct

AxisTitle 2011

2012

2013

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

2011

2012

2013

Days on Market

70

80

Days on Market 2011-13


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2011

2012

2013

Sales to Listings

180.00%

200.00% S/L Ratio 2013


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0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

140.00%

160.00%


2012

2013

Housing Prices in Edmonton vs. Canada!"#"$%"# !%'( )*+ ,-., )*+ ,-./ 010 !2"#34 5 *6 7$8*#'*#

9"#:*;+4


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)*&%+$" )')%(.+ &-"(/ )#-$./

=*


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0

200

400

600

Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec

CMA Sold YEG Sold

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec

All Res Sales CMA vs YEG 2012-13

CMA Sold YEG Sold BOARD Sales

Sales by Price Range

350,000

360,000

370,000

All Residential Average Price 2011-13


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280,000

290,000

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

YEG Price CMA Price

Sales by Price and Type 2013

2000

2500

# YTD sales by price range 2013


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0

500

1000

1500

AxisTitle

SFD

Condo

All-Res

High End Properties - SFDs

1000

1200

1400

1200

1400

1600

SFD Sales By Price 2011-13


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0

200

400

600

800

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2011

2012

2013

High Value Properties

!Sales of homes over $1 million up 29%!115 sales compared to 89 in 2012


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!Highest SFD sale - $3.4 million

!Highest Condo sale - $1.6 million!DOM Range from 4 days to 14 months! average 74 days

!Current active listings 112!Calgary had 732 Million dollar sales in 2013

Edmonton Sub-markets

D


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)*


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I*


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A*84

0(++%#)&%+)) &&-*/ &%'*+ 10.7%

9":"#' D:


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2010 $299,831,418 51.68% 682 29.66%

2011 $255,274,658 -14.86% 651 -4.55%

2012 $329,948,352 29.25% 710 9.06%

2013 $338,951,457 27.29% 658 7.32%

Multi-family!Back to usual sales levels!50 sales compared to 59 last year! Value of sales - $70 million up from $52 million


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!Value of sales $70 million up from $52 million!33% value growth over 2012!Not accurate reflection of total market because of

non-MLS System sales by builders and developers

SFD Forecast! SFD Average Price rose 4.3%! Double the 2% predicted! Positive Market Forces will continue to drive prices


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! Forecast errs on the side of caution! Predict another 3% price increase for 2014! Sales in YEG static! Sales in CMA up 1,000 units

Condo Forecast! Condo prices increased by 3.4%! Forecast last year was 1% growth! Result of increased sales activity and demand for deluxe


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finishing levels! Numbers do not reflect higher prices of new condos

which are not typically sold through the MLS System

! Downward pressure on price of resale condos

! Predict 2% price increase for 2014! Sales up 2.5% throughout the region

Sales Forecast0=E D+4


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D@@ V4?%$4#W"@ J


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! y g

!Both prices and sales volume!Little chance of cliffs, bounces, busts or bubbles!Ensure that commentators are discussing local

market and not Toronto or Vancouver situations

Conclusion!Real Estate Industry influenced by market forces,

governments and regulators

!REALTORS are highly visible targets


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!Be aware of changing market conditions andregulations

!Help your clients to keep up to date!REALTORS: Here when life happens

Thank You!

! Our Sponsors


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Obeo Virtual Tours CMHCREWedmonton.ca ATB FinancialREALTORS Community Foundation EEDCREALTOR Store

! Our exhibitors

Thank You to our speakers!!Roxanne Carr - Strathcona!Rod Shaigec - Parkland!John Whaley - Leduc


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!Tom Flynn - Sturgeon!James Cumming Chamber of Commerce!John Rose City of Edmonton!Christina Butchart - CMHC

Complete the Evaluations!Review the presentation videos on the intranet!Download the presentations from the intranet!Drive Carefully


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y

!Have a great day

!THANK YOU

Documents

Edmonton Alberta 2014 Housing Forecast Seminar