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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
Construction Materials Sector Brighter outlook for FY16
THAILAND | SET | CONMAT | SECTOR UPDATE Sagging cement demand with virtually no growth seen in FY15 Thailand’s cement industry was in a slump in FY15. Domestic cement demand shrank 0.5% y‐y in 9MFY15. The slump was largely blamed on a drop of 5% and 3% in residential and commercial construction activity respectively in the face of a slowdown in the property market though the acceleration of government budget disbursements and construction activity for ongoing projects pushed cement demand from government investments up 11% y‐y. For the whole of FY15, cement demand is expected to be virtually flat while slugglish market conditions may drag cement selling prices slightly lower from a year earlier. Overall cement industry is expected to be down slightly in FY15. Cement demand growth set to shift into higher gear in FY16 The outlook brightens for the cement industry in FY16 after a slowdown in FY15 after some projects as part of the government’s Bt1.6trn infrastructure plan had been put up for bidding in late FY15, starting with the first double‐track rail route from Klong 19 to Kaeng Khoi which was put up for grabs in Nov 2015. In addition, the Bt23bn double track rail route from Jira Junction to Khon Kaen was auctioned on Dec 8. There is also a possibility that bids for the Bt14bn Pattaya‐Map Ta Phut motorway will be called in FY15. Looking ahead into FY16, there will also be a pipeline of three electric train projects worth a combined Bt149bn and 5‐6 double‐track railway projects worth a combined Bt232bn lined up for bidding. On this basis, the positive momentum in public construction activity is likey to continue well into FY16 and the government’s recently announced property stimulus package including personal income tax deductions, cuts in mortgage and ownership transfer fees and soft loans for first‐time buyers of homes priced below Bt3mn/unit should prop up the residential property market. Overall cement demand in Thailand is expected to return to positive growth of 3%‐4% in FY16 but the startup of TPIPL’s fourth cement plant with an annual production capacity of around 4.5mn tons, accounting for 10% of the country’s total annual demand would add to the supply in the market. However, this new supply would be absorbed by a sharp increase in public construction activity and exports to ASEAN countries over the next couple of years. As contruction is slated to get off the ground in FY16 for the government’s infrastructure projects, it seems to us that the above new supply may keep margins flat due to the difficulty in raising selling prices. ‘OVERWEIGHT’ position in CONMAT space Based on the prospect of a return to growth for the cement industry in FY16, we choose SCC as our top pick in the CONMAT space with a Bt560/share target price on view that its strong market position as the country’s biggest cement producer in terms of market share and several years of its regional expansion drive in ASEAN should put it in a better position to cash in on the recovery of the industry. SCC’s total cement production capacity stood at 24.3mn tons per annum at the start of FY15. Of the total, 23mn tons came from Thailand, 1.1mn tons from Cambodia and the rest 0.2mn tons from Vietnam. Up to 2.7mn tons of cement, an increase of 11% would be added to its capacity at end‐FY15 and it also plans to boost its capacity by 6% each in FY16‐FY17 from the startup of its new greenfield cement plants in Myanmar and Lao PDR with a production capacity of 1.8mn tons each in FY16‐FY17 respectively. The above capacity expansion plan should get SCC well‐prepared to expand its regional market penetration compared to its peers TPIPL and SCCC which have major production bases only in Thailand.
Ref. No.: CO2015_00922
Companies Covered
SCC
CMP 438.0
Rating BUY
TP 560
SCCC
CMP 309
Rating BUY
TP 350
TPIPL
CMP 2.08
Rating BUY
TP 2.4
09 December 2015
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2015
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC
EASTW EGCO GRAMMY HANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE
KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINT MONO NKI PHOL PPS
PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMART SAMTEL
SAT SC SCB SCC SE‐ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO
TKT TMB TOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP
ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY BBL BDMS BECL BKI BLA
BMCL BOL BROOK BWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT
COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTA DEMCO ECF EE ERW
GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICC ICHI
INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK
MC MEGA MFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC
OISHI OTO PAP PDI PE PG PJW PM PPP PR
PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q‐CON QH RS S & J SABINA SAMCO
SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT
SNP SPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC
SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI
THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TK TKS TMI TMILL
TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUE
TSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWFP
TWS UAC UT UV VNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH
AMARIN AP APCO AQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY
BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHI BKD BTNC CBG CGD
CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSC CSP
CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE
FOCUS FORTH FPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND
GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECH IEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP
ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGI KKC KTIS
KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR
MAKRO MATCH MATI MBKET M‐CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN
MOONG MPG MSC MTI MTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT
OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDG PF PICO PL
PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCI
RCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN
SCP SEAOIL SIRI SKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG
SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPI SUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX
TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TIC TIW
TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI
UP UPF UPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN
XO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐69%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai
Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip
Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of
such survey result.
No logo given
Number of Logo
Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securities FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industrial Materials & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materials PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Util ities ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Professional Services PROF
Transportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> 15% BUY
> 5% ‐ 15% ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY
> 0% ‐ 5% NEUTRAL
0 <= SELL
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors l ike (but
not l imited to) a stock's risk reward profi le, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of
stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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