Cornwall

Population, Household & Labour Force

Forecasts

October 2015

For the attention of: Terry Grove-White Assistant head of Planning, Housing & Regeneration Cornwall Council

Leeds Innovation Centre | 103 Clarendon Road | Leeds | LS2 9DF

0113 384 6087 | www.edgeanalytics.co.uk

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Acknowledgements

Demographic statistics used in this report have been derived from data from the Office for

National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.

The authors of this report do not accept liability for any costs or consequential loss involved following the use of the data and analysis referred to here; this is entirely the responsibility of the users of the information presented in this report.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. i

Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................ii

1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1

2 Area Profile ..................................................................................................................... 6

3 Demographic Scenarios .................................................................................................. 15

4 Labour Force & Jobs Growth ........................................................................................... 21

5 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 35

Scenario Results 2010–2035 ............................................................................. 38 Appendix A

POPGROUP Methodology ................................................................................. 43 Appendix B

Data Inputs & Assumptions .............................................................................. 46 Appendix C

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1 Introduction

Context

Cornwall Council, in conjunction with Plymouth City Council, South Hams District Council and 1.1

West Devon Borough Council commissioned GVA to prepare a Strategic Housing Market Needs

Assessment (SHMNA) in November 2012, using demographic forecasts provided by Edge

Analytics. The final SHMNA document was published in July 20131.

In March 2015, Cornwall Council commissioned Edge Analytics to provide a range of 1.2

demographics scenarios which included the latest demographic statistics2. These statistics

included:

Revised mid-year population estimates (MYEs) for the 2002–2010 historical period;

MYEs for 2012 and 2013, providing two additional years of historical data;

The latest 2012-based sub-national population projection (SNPPs) from the Office for

National Statistics (ONS);

The latest 2012-based household projection model from the Department of

Communities and Local Government (DCLG).

The Edge Analytics report (March 2015), included a range of demographic scenarios for the 1.3

2012–2035 plan period, with historical data included for the 2001–2013 period. The range of

demographic scenarios was used as supporting evidence for Cornwall Council’s Local Plan. In May

2015, Cornwall Council’s Local Plan commenced examination, with the Inspector’s preliminary

comments concluding that further demographic modelling was required3. In response to this,

Cornwall Council has commissioned Edge Analytics to undertake further demographic analysis,

with the inclusion of the 2014 MYE for Cornwall, released by ONS in June 2014.

1 http://www.cornwall.gov.uk/media/5830826/SHMNA-revised-2014.pdf

2 https://www.cornwall.gov.uk/media/11504642/ID01CC33-Cornwall-Draft-Report-Edge-Analytics-250315-.pdf

3 https://www.cornwall.gov.uk/media/12843214/ID05-Preliminary-Findings-June-2015-2-.pdf

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Requirements

As part of its Local Plan examination, Cornwall Council has requested that Edge Analytics prepare 1.4

a range of population, household and economic scenarios; using the latest demographic statistics

and assumptions. Cornwall Council has requested that the scenarios be provided in two phases:

Phase 1 includes the most recent SNPP and alternative trend based scenarios. These

forecasts were provided to Cornwall Council in the Edge Analytics July 2015 report.

Phase 2 includes analysis of the labour force and jobs growth implications of these

demographic scenarios, linked to employment forecasts provided by the economic

study undertaken for Cornwall by Ash Futures Ltd. This report presents the Phase 2

analysis, integrated with the Phase 1 analysis.

In response to the Inspector’s comments, Cornwall Council has requested that household growth 1.5

is assessed using assumptions from both the 2012-based and the earlier 2008-based DCLG

household projection models.

Approach

Official Guidelines

The development and presentation of demographic evidence to support local housing plans is 1.6

subject to an increasing degree of public scrutiny. The National Planning Policy Framework

(NPPF)4 and PPG5 provide guidance on the appropriate approach to the objective assessment of

housing need. Guidance is also provided by the Planning Advisory Service (PAS)6, with practical

advice on assessing the housing needs and establishing housing targets for an area.

In the objective assessment of need, demographic evidence is key. The PPG states that the DCLG 1.7

household projections, which are underpinned by the ONS sub-national population projections,

should provide the “starting point estimate of overall housing need” (PPG paragraph 2a-015).

4 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-planning-policy-framework/5 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/planning-practice-guidance/6 https://www.local.gov.uk/pas

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Whilst these official projections provide the ‘benchmark’ for the assessment of need, alternative 1.8

assumptions relating to the underlying demographic projections and household growth should be

considered, as should the latest ONS population estimates (PPG paragraph 2a-017). The PPG also

states that “plan makers should make an assessment of the likely change in job numbers based on

past trends and/or economic forecasts as appropriate and also having regard to the growth of the

working age population in the housing market area” (PPG paragraph 2a-018).

Edge Analytics’ Approach

Edge Analytics has used POPGROUP v.4 technology to develop a range of demographic scenarios 1.9

for Cornwall. The use of demographic models, which enable a range of growth scenarios to be

evaluated, is now a key component of the objective assessment process. The POPGROUP suite of

demographic models, which is widely used by local authorities and planners across the UK,

provides a robust and appropriate forecasting methodology (for further information on

POPGROUP, refer to Appendix C).

The choice of assumptions used within POPGROUP has an important bearing on scenario 1.10

outcomes. This is particularly the case when trend projections are considered alongside official

population, household and employment forecasts. The scrutiny of demographic assumptions is

now a critical component of the public inspection process, providing much of the debate around

the appropriateness of a particular objective assessment of housing need.

As the starting point of this assessment, the most recent official population and household 1.11

projections are considered. The 2012-based SNPP for Cornwall is presented, with an analysis of

the ‘components of change’ underlying this new projection. These statistics are compared to

previous estimates and to the historical data on births, deaths and migration. The most recent

2012-based household projection model from DCLG is also considered, with commentary

provided on the differences between this and the earlier household projection models.

In line with the PPG, Edge Analytics has developed a range of demographic scenarios for 1.12

Cornwall, with the 2012-based SNPP presented as the official ‘benchmark’. Three ‘alternative

trend’ scenarios have also been developed using the latest demographic assumptions, for

comparison with the 2012-based SNPP. The alternative ‘trend’ scenarios are based on varying

migration assumptions from short-term (5-year) and longer-term (10-year and 12-year) historical

migration period.

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The household growth implications of each scenario have been assessed using assumptions from 1.13

the 2012-based DCLG household projection model. For comparison, household growth has also

been assessed using assumptions from the earlier 2008-based DCLG household projection model.

In POGPROUP, it is possible to derive the size and structure of the labour force and the number 1.14

of jobs that an implied level of population growth could support, through the application of three

key economic assumptions: economic activity rates, unemployment rates and a commuting ratio.

The labour force and jobs growth implications of each of the demographic scenarios have

therefore been assessed, in line with the PPG. These outcomes are considered alongside

employment forecasts for Cornwall from Ash Futures Ltd.7, with sensitivity scenarios developed

to determine the implications of alternative economic activity rate, commuting ratio and

unemployment rate assumptions.

All scenarios have been run to a 2030 horizon, with historical data included for the 2001–2014 1.15

period. Scenario results are presented for the 2010–2030 plan period for Cornwall8. In Appendix

A, the scenario results are presented for the 2010–2035 period.

Report Structure

The report is structured in the following way: 1.16

In Section 2, a profile of Cornwall is presented, including an historical perspective

on population change since the 2001 Census, an analysis of the ‘components of

change’ from the 2012-based SNPP and commentary on the most recent 2012-

based DCLG household projection model.

In Section 3, the demographic scenarios are defined and the results presented.

In Section 4, the labour force and jobs growth implications of the demographic

scenarios are considered and are linked to employment forecasts for Cornwall.

Section 5 summarises the analysis and identifies a number of key issues for

Cornwall Council to consider.

7 Cornwall Employment Projections to Inform Housing Needs Analysis, Supporting Technical Advice. Ash

Futures Ltd. August 2015

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In Appendix A, the scenario results are presented for the 2010–2035 period.

Appendix B presents an overview of the POPGROUP methodology.

Appendix C provides detail on the data inputs and assumptions used in the

development of the POPGROUP scenarios.

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2 Area Profile

Introduction

The development of Local Plans is made considerably more challenging by the dynamic nature of 2.1

key data inputs. Economic and demographic factors, coupled with the continuous release of new

statistics, often undermine the robustness of underpinning evidence. This has been a particular

issue since 2012, with the release of 2011 Census statistics, revisions to historical population

estimates and updated population and household projections.

This section provides an overview of population change in Cornwall since 2001 and the recent 2.2

revisions to the mid-year population estimates. Also presented is the most recent population

projection from ONS, the 2012-based SNPP and its constituent ‘components of change’.

Commentary is also provided on the most recent household projections, the 2012-based DCLG

household projection model.

Population Change 2001–2011

Mid-Year Population Estimates

Between successive Censuses, population estimation is necessary. These mid-year population 2.3

estimates (MYEs) are derived by applying the ‘components of change’ (i.e. counts of births and

deaths and estimates of internal and international migration) to the previous year’s MYE.

Following the 2011 Census, the 2002–2010 MYEs were ‘rebased’ to align them with the 2011

MYE and to ensure the correct transition of the age profile of the population over the 2001–2011

decade.

At the 2011 Census, the resident population of Cornwall was 532,273, a 6.5% increase over the 2.4

2001–2011 decade. The 2011 Census population total proved to be lower than that suggested by

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the trajectory of growth from the previous MYEs. For this reason, the revised final MYEs are

lower than the previous MYEs (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Cornwall - Mid-Year Population Estimates (Source: ONS)

Components of Change

The rebasing of the MYEs involved the recalibration of the components of change for 2001/02–2.5

2010/11. Between Censuses, births and deaths are accurately recorded in vital statistics registers

and provide a robust measure of ‘natural change’ (the difference between births and deaths) in a

geographical area. Given that births and deaths are robustly recorded, and assuming that the

2001 Census provided a robust population count, the difference in the MYEs is due to the

difficulties associated with the estimation of migration.

Internal migration (i.e. migration flows to and from other areas in the UK) is adequately 2.6

measured using data from the Patient Register (PR), the National Health Service Central Register

(NHSCR) and Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), although data robustness may be lower

where there is under-registration in certain age-groups (young males in particular). It is therefore

most likely that the ‘error’ in the previous MYEs is associated with the mis-estimation of

international migration, i.e. the balance between immigration and emigration flows to and from

Cornwall.

However, ONS has not explicitly assigned the MYE adjustment to international migration. Instead 2.7

it has identified an additional ‘unattributable population change’ (UPC) component, suggesting it

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has not been able to accurately identify the source of the 2001–2011 over-count (Figure 2). The

effect of the UPC adjustment depends upon the scale of population recalibration that has been

required following the 2011 Census results. For Cornwall, the population estimates have been

subject to a consistent annual decrease due to the over-count over the 2001–2011 decade.

Figure 2: Cornwall – Components of population change 2001/02–2013/14 (Source: ONS)

For demographic analysis, the classification of UPC is unhelpful, but given the robustness of 2.8

births, deaths and internal migration statistics compared to international migration estimates, it

is assumed that it is most likely to be associated with the latter. With the assumption that the

UPC element is assigned to international migration (for estimates up to 2011), and with the

inclusion of statistics from the 2012, 2013 and 2014 MYEs from ONS, a thirteen-year profile of

the ‘components of change’ is presented for Cornwall (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Components of population change 2001/02 to 2013/14, including the UPC component in the 2001/02 to 2010/11 international migration component. (Source: ONS).

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For Cornwall, population change over the 2001/02–2013/14 period was predominantly driven by 2.9

net internal migration, which was positive throughout the historical period. Overall, natural

change has been negative throughout the historical period as the number of deaths exceeded the

number of births. Net international migration (with the inclusion of the UPC element) has also

been largely negative over the historical period. In the latter part of the decade (i.e. 2011/12–

2013/14), net international migration has been positive.

Official Projections

Official Population Projections

In the development and analysis of population forecasts, it is important to benchmark any 2.10

growth alternatives against the latest ‘official’ population projection. The most recent official

subnational population projection is the ONS 2012-based SNPP, released in May 2014.

SNPPs are released every couple of years by the ONS. These projections are trend-based and 2.11

provide an indication of population growth over a 25-year period. In 2011, the ONS published the

2011-based interim SNPP, in which population growth was projected over a shorter 10-year

period (2011–2021). In May 2014, the 2012-based SNPP was released, providing a new

‘benchmark’ for the analysis of population growth.

Under the 2012-based SNPP, the population of Cornwall grows at a higher rate than under the 2.12

previous 2010-based official projection (Figure 4). Under the 2012-based SNPP, the population of

Cornwall is projected to increase by 102,296 over the official 2012–2037 projection period, a

19.0% increase. Under the 2010-based SNPP, the population was projected to increase by 17.8%

over the 2010–2035 period. However, excluding the 2010-based SNPP, population growth under

the 2012-based SNPP is projected to be lower than under the earlier projections.

The 2012-based SNPP components of change are presented in Figure 5, with the historical 2.13

components of change for 2001/02 to 2011/12 included for comparison. The annual average

natural change, net migration (internal and international) and population change for the 2012-

based SNPP are compared to the historical 5-year and 10-year averages in Table 1.

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Figure 4: Official ONS population projections (source: ONS)

Figure 5: Historical and 2012-based SNPP components of change (source: ONS)

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Table 1: 2012-based SNPP components of change (source: ONS)

Historically, over both the 5-year and 10-year, net internal migration has been the dominant 2.14

component of population change. Under the 2012-based SNPP, it is projected that net internal

will continue to be the dominant component of change over the 2012–2037 period, averaging

+4,150 persons per year. This is lower than the historical 10-year average but higher than the

5-year average.

Natural change was negative over the historical 5-year and 10-year periods, as the number of 2.15

deaths exceeded the number of births. Under the 2012-based SNPP, this trend is set to continue,

with an average annual reduction of -213 persons through natural change.

The population growth impact of net international migration is projected to be small but positive 2.16

over the 2012–2037 period (an average of +154 persons per year). The expected increase in net

international migration is at a lower rate than the historical 5-year average but higher than the

historical 10-year average (+242 and +59 persons per year respectively).

Official Household Projections

In the assessment of housing need, the PPG states that the DCLG household projections should 2.17

provide the “starting point estimate” (PPG paragraph 2a-015).

The 2012-based household projection model, which is underpinned by the 2012-based SNPP, was 2.18

released by the DCLG in February/March 2015, superseding the 2011-based interim household

projection model.

Natural Change

Net Internal Migration

Net International Migration

Unattributable Population Change*

Annual Population Change

Annual Population Change (%)

* UPC is only applicable to the years 2001/02 - 2010/11

10-year average

(2002/03–2011/12)

2012-based SNPP

average

(2012/13–2036/37)

4,150

154

-

5-year average

(2007/08–2011/12)

Historical Projected

-226

4,104

242

-939

-213

0.61%

-662

4,920

59

-991

3,333

0.66%

4,092

0.76%

Component of Change

3,208

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The methodological basis of the new 2012-based model is consistent with that employed in the 2.19

previous 2011-based interim and 2008-based household projections. A ‘two-stage’ methodology

has been used by DCLG. ‘Stage One’ produces the national and local projections for the total

number of households by age-group and relationship status group over the projection period.

‘Stage Two’ provides the detailed household type breakdown by age. Currently, only Stage One

output is available for the 2012-based household projection model (refer to Appendix C for

further detail).

Whilst methodologically similar to previous releases, the 2012-based household projections 2.20

provide an important update to the 2011-based interim household projections with the inclusion

of the following information:

2012-based SNPP by sex and age that extend to 2037 (rather than to 2021 as was the

case in the 2011-based interim projections).

Household population by sex, age and relationship-status consistent with the 2011

Census (rather than estimates for 2011, which were derived from 2001 Census data,

projections and national trends, as used in the 2011-interim projections).

Communal population statistics by age and sex consistent with the 2011 Census

(rather than the previous estimate, which were calibrated to the total communal

population from the 2011 Census).

Further information on household representatives from the 2011 Census relating to

aggregate household representative rates by relationship status and age.

Aggregate household representative rates at local authority level, controlled to the

national rate, based on the total number of households divided by the total adult

household population (rather than the total number of households divided to the total

household population).

Adjustments to the projections of the household representative rates in 2012 based on

the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

(Source: DCLG Methodology9)

The official 2012-based DCLG household projection model for Cornwall, underpinned by the 2.21

2012-based SNPP, suggests that the number of households will increase by 23.2% over the 25-

9 Household Projections 2012-based: Methodological Report. Department for Communities and Local Government (February 2015). https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/2012-based-household-projections-methodology

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year projection period (2012–2037)10 equivalent to an additional 53,912, approximately +2,156

households per year (Figure 6). Under the 2011-based interim household projection model, the

average annual household growth was +2,424 over the 2011–2021 period. The average annual

household growth was highest under the earlier 2008-based household projection model, at

+2,817 households per year (2008–2033).

Figure 6: Average number of households under the official 2008-based, 2011-based and 2012-based DCLG household projection models (Source: DCLG)

Under the 2012-based, 2011-based interim and 2008-based household projection models, the 2.22

average household size is expected to decrease over the respective projection periods (Figure 7).

Under the 2012-based household projection model, the average household size is expected to

decrease from 2.27 in 2012 to 2.18 by 2037. Under the 2011-based interim household projection

model, the average household size was expected to decrease from 2.27 to 2.26 over the 2011–

2021 period. The 2008-based household projection model suggested a greater decrease from

2.24 in 2008 to 2.08 by 2033.

10 The number of household in England is projected to increase by 23.5% over the 2012–2037 period.

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Figure 7: Average household size under the official 2008-based, 2011-based and 2012-based household projection models (Source: DCLG)

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3 Demographic Scenarios

Introduction

There is no single definitive view on the likely level of growth expected in Cornwall; a mix of 3.1

economic, demographic and national/local policy issues ultimately determines the speed and

scale of change. For local planning purposes, it is necessary to evaluate a range of growth

alternatives to establish the most ‘appropriate’ basis for determining future housing provision.

Edge Analytics has used POPGROUP (v.4) technology to develop a range of growth scenarios for 3.2

Cornwall (for detail on the POPGROUP methodology, refer to Appendix C). In the following

sections, the scenarios are described, the broad assumptions specified and the scenario results

presented.

In line with the PPG, the most recent demographic and household projection models have been 3.3

considered. Four scenarios have been produced: the most recent official population projection

from ONS, the 2012-based SNPP, and three alternative trend-based scenarios, based on short-

term and long-term migration histories.

In all scenarios, household growth has been assessed through the application of ‘headship rates’ 3.4

and ‘communal population’ assumptions from the latest 2012-based DCLG household projection

model, and the earlier 2008-based model for comparison.

For further detail on the data inputs and assumptions used in the demographic scenarios, please 3.5

refer to Appendix C.

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Scenario Definition

Official ‘Starting Point’

In accordance with the PPG, the alternative scenarios are ‘benchmarked’ against the most recent 3.6

official population projections from the ONS, the 2012-based SNPP. The SNPP-2012 scenario

replicates this official population projection. Through the application of the household growth

assumptions from the 2012-based DCLG household projection model, the ‘starting point

estimate’ for Cornwall is provided (in line with the PPG).

Alternative Trend Scenarios

Given the unprecedented economic changes that have occurred since 2008, and the differences 3.7

between the historical migration data and the 2012-based SNPP projection assumptions (see

Figure 5 and Table 1 on page 11), it is important to consider an extended historical time period

for the migration trend scenarios. Furthermore, the 2012-based SNPP has a base date of 2012;

there are now two additional years of historical MYE data on which to base trend scenarios.

Three alternative trend scenarios have been developed, based on the latest demographic 3.8

evidence:

PG-5yr11: internal migration rates and international migration flow assumptions are

based on the last 5-years of historical evidence (2009/10–2013/14), with the UPC

adjustment included in the international migration assumptions.

PG-10yr: internal migration rates and international migration flow assumptions are

based on the last 10-years of historical evidence (2004/05–2013/14), with the UPC

adjustment included in the international migration assumptions.

PG-12yr: internal migration rates and international migration flow assumptions are

based on the last 12-years of historical evidence (2002/03–2013/14), with the UPC

adjustment included in the international migration assumptions12.

11

Note that ‘PG’ stands for POPGROUP, the demographic forecasting software that has been used to develop the scenarios. 12

This scenario has been included owing to the similarities between the 5-year and 10-year averages (see results section for detail on this).

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Household Growth

In each scenario, household has been assessed through the application of headship rates from 3.9

both the 2012-based and the 2008-based DCLG household projection models, producing two

alternative household-growth trajectories:

In the HH-12 outcome, the 2012-based DCLG headship rates are applied;

In the HH-08 outcome, the 2008-based DCLG headship rates are applied, scaled to be

consistent with the 2010 and 2011 DCLG household totals but following the original

trend thereafter.

In both ‘HH’ alternatives, the population ‘not-in-households’ (e.g. those living in care homes, 3.10

student halls of residence) is excluded from the household analysis. These ‘communal population’

assumptions are taken from the 2012-based DCLG household projection model (for further

detail, see Appendix C.

Scenario Summary

Four scenarios have been produced (Table 2) under two scenario types; official projections and 3.11

alternative trend-based scenarios.

Table 2: Scenario Summary

Scenario Type Scenario Name Definition

Official Projection

SNPP-2012 This scenario replicates the official 2012-based SNPP for Cornwall. This is the official ‘benchmark’ scenario.

Alternative Trend Based

PG-5yr

Internal and international migration assumptions are based on the last 5-years of historical evidence (2009/10–2013/14), with the UPC included within the international migration assumptions.

PG-10yr

Internal and international migration assumptions are based on the last 10-years of historical evidence (2004/04–2013/14), with the UPC included within the international migration assumptions.

PG-12yr

Internal and international migration assumptions are based on the last 10-years of historical evidence (2002/03–2013/14), with the UPC included within the international migration assumptions.

Note: For more detail on data inputs and assumptions, refer to Appendix C.

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Demographic Scenario Outcomes

Four scenarios have been produced for Cornwall using POPGROUP v.4 technology, with the 3.12

scenario outcomes for the 2010–2030 plan period presented in this section13. The scenario

outcomes are presented in the form of a chart (Figure 8) and two tables (Table 3 and Table 4).

The chart presents the population growth trajectory resulting from each scenario for the 3.13

2001–2030 period. This includes the historical mid-year population estimates up to 2012 in the

SNPP-2012 scenario, and up to 2014 in the PG scenarios. The tables summarise the population

and household change over the 2010–2030 plan period, and the associated average annual net

migration. The scenarios are ranked (high to low) according to the expected population growth

over the plan period.

Each scenario has been run using the latest 2012-based headship rates (HH-12) and also the 3.14

2008-based rates (HH-08); there are therefore two tables. It is important to note that population

and net migration growth are identical in each of these tables, it is only the household numbers

that differ, reflecting the application of the two different sets of headship rates.

The HH-12 variant of the SNPP-2012 scenario replicates the official population and household 3.15

projections, providing a benchmark and starting point to the demographic analysis. Population

growth is highest under this scenario, at 16.4%, equating to an additional 87,002 people over the

2010–2030 plan period. This level population growth over the plan period, results in an additional

+44,348 households under the HH-12 alternative and +46,470 under the HH-08 alternative.

The ‘PG’ scenarios provide alternative trend-based scenarios, based on short-term and longer-3.16

term migration histories. These scenarios incorporate fertility and mortality assumptions that are

consistent with SNPP-2012 scenario, but differ in their internal and international migration

assumptions. A five-year, ten-year and twelve-year history have been used to calibrate future

internal migration rates and international migration counts in the PG-5yr, PG-10yr and PG-12yr

scenarios respectively. These three scenarios incorporate the UPC adjustment in the

international migration estimates.

13

In Appendix A, the scenario results are presented for the 2010–2035 period.

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Cornwall: Demographic Scenario Outcomes 2010–2030

Figure 8: Cornwall scenario outcomes: population growth 2001–2030

Table 3: Cornwall HH-12 scenario outcomes (2010–2030)

Table 4: Cornwall HH-08 scenario outcomes (2010–2030)

Note: The PG scenarios presented for the 2010–2030 period include four years of historical data. The SNPP-2012 scenario includes two years of historical data.

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

SNPP-2012 (HH-12) 87,002 16.4% 44,348 19.3% 4,310

PG-12yr (HH-12) 83,966 15.8% 45,515 19.8% 4,251

PG-10yr (HH-12) 79,697 15.0% 43,479 18.9% 4,043

PG-5yr (HH-12) 78,754 14.9% 42,382 18.5% 4,059

Scenario

Change 2010–2030 Average

Annual Net

Migration

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

SNPP-2012 (HH-08) 87,002 16.4% 46,470 20.2% 4,310

PG-12yr (HH-08) 83,966 15.8% 47,793 20.8% 4,251

PG-10yr (HH-08) 79,697 15.0% 45,654 19.9% 4,043

PG-5yr (HH-08) 78,754 14.9% 44,516 19.4% 4,059

Scenario

Change 2010–2030 Average

Annual Net

Migration

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October 2015

Population growth under the PG-5yr and PG-10yr scenarios is similar, at 14.9% and 15.0% 3.17

respectively. These levels of population growth result in similar household growth outcomes, at

an additional 43,479 households under the HH-12 variant of the PG-10yr scenario, and 42,382

households under the PG-5yr scenario.

Of the three alternative trend scenarios, population growth is highest under the PG-12yr 3.18

scenario, at 15.8% over the 2010–2030 plan period. Under the HH-12 alternative this results in a

growth of 45,515 households over the plan period. Under the HH-08 alternative, household

growth is higher, with an additional 47,793 households. Household growth is higher under the

PG-12yr scenario than under the SNPP-2012 scenario due to the different population age

structures that are produced in each scenario.

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4 Labour Force & Jobs Growth

Introduction

In the assessment of housing need, the PPG states that “plan makers should make an assessment 4.1

of the likely change in job numbers based on past trends and/or economic forecasts as

appropriate and also having regard to the growth of the working age population in the housing

market area” (PPG paragraph 2a-018).

In POGPROUP, it is possible to derive the size and structure of the labour force and the number 4.2

of jobs that an implied level of population growth could support, through the application of:

(1) economic activity rates; (2) unemployment rates; (3) a commuting ratio. Through a ‘jobs-led’

configuration of POPGROUP, the demographic implications of employment forecasts can also be

evaluated using these three key economic assumptions.

In this section, the labour force and jobs growth implications of the Edge Analytics demographic 4.3

scenarios are presented. Using an employment forecast for Cornwall from Ash Futures Ltd.14, a

range of ‘jobs-led’ scenarios has also been developed, with sensitivity testing around the

commuting ratio and unemployment rate assumptions.

Labour Force & Jobs Growth Implications

The labour force and jobs growth implications of the four demographic scenarios have been 4.4

derived using a set of ‘baseline’ economic assumptions. In this section, these assumptions are

defined and the results of the analysis presented. In the following section, these economic

assumptions are used to derive the level of population growth implied by the Ash Futures

employment forecast.

14

Cornwall Employment Projections to Inform Housing Needs Analysis, Supporting Technical Advice. Ash Futures Ltd. August 2015

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October 2015

Economic Assumptions

Economic Activity Rates

The Economic Activity Rates determine the proportion of the working-age population (16–74) 4.5

that are economically active (i.e. the labour force). The labour force includes those who are in

work (i.e. ‘workers’) and also those who are unemployed.

Economic activity rates for Cornwall have been sourced from the 2011 Census, defined by 5-year 4.6

age group and sex (ages 16–74). Although more recent economic activity rates are available from

the ONS Annual Population Survey (APS), these are sample-based figures and therefore do not

present a complete picture of economic activity. The Census rates provide a definitive measure of

economic activity for Local Authorities and are used here for this reason.

Between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses, economic activity rates for females in Cornwall increased 4.7

in all but the youngest age groups (Figure 9). For males, economic activity rates increased for

ages 40+, with a small decline seen in the youngest age groups.

Figure 9: 2001 and 2011 Census economic activity rates for Cornwall (source: ONS)

Whilst economic activity rates have increased historically, forecasting changes to future 4.8

economic activity rates is challenging. In reality, it is highly unlikely that future rates of economic

activity will remain static. The ageing of the population profile of most local authorities means

that the older age-groups increasingly make up a larger proportion of the population.

23

October 2015

Furthermore, with increased life expectancies and changes to the State Pension Age15, people are

remaining in the labour force for longer, resulting in increased participation rates in the older age

groups. To at least maintain the current level of overall economic activity requires higher

economic activity rates generally, but most importantly in the older age-groups.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has undertaken analysis of labour market trends in its 4.9

2014 Fiscal Sustainability Report16. Included within its analysis is a forecast of changing

‘employment’ rates for males and females in the 60–74 year-old age groups, extending to a long-

term 2066 forecast horizon. The employment rate changes estimated by the OBR imply a

substantial growth in older-age participation rates (Table 5).

Table 5: OBR age-specific employment rate forecasts, 2011–2031 (source: OBR)

Age Group OBR Employment Rates

Change 2011–2031

60–64 (male) 17%

65–69 (male) 39%

70–74 (male) 20%

60–64 (female) 71%

65–69 (female) 93%

70–74 (female) 83%

The OBR figures summarised in Table 5 have been used to produce an ‘adjusted’ set of economic 4.10

activity rates for Cornwall, with alterations made to the 60–74 age groups between 2011 and

2031. The economic activity rates for all other age groups remain fixed throughout the forecast

period (i.e. at the 2011 Census rates).

Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate determines the proportion of the labour force that is unemployed (and 4.11

as a result, the proportion that is employed).

The historical unemployment rate profile for Cornwall has been sourced from the ONS model-4.12

based estimates of unemployment from Nomis. These figures provide a better estimate of

unemployment than the APS unemployment statistics, which are based on very small samples

15

16 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-age-timetable

Budget responsibility website [link exired]

24

October 2015

and are therefore unreliable in many areas17. In each of the demographic scenarios, the

unemployment rate has been incrementally reduced from the current (2014) unemployment rate

of 5.1%, to a ‘pre-recession’ average of 4.1% by 2021 (fixed thereafter). This takes into account

what is likely to be a gradual recovery in unemployment following the recession.

Commuting Ratio

The Commuting Ratio determines the balance between the resident number of ‘workers’ (i.e. the 4.13

employed labour force) and the number of jobs in an area. A commuting ratio greater than 1.0

indicates a net out-commute (i.e. the number of resident workers in an area is greater than the

number of jobs). A commuting ratio less than 1.0 indicates a net in-commute (i.e. the number of

jobs is greater than the number of workers).

The commuting ratio used here has been derived from the 2011 Census Travel to Work data for 4.14

Wyre Forest (Table 6). At the 2011 Census, the commuting ratio for Cornwall was 1.04, indicating

a smaller net out-commute than that recorded at the 2001 Census. The commuting ratio has

been fixed in each year of the forecast period.

Table 6: Cornwall commuting ratios

Demographic Scenario Outcomes

With the economic activity rate, unemployment rate and commuting ratio assumptions detailed 4.15

above applied, the labour force and jobs growth implications of the demographic scenarios are

summarised in Table 7. In all scenarios, the size of the labour force increases over time, by 8.3%

under the PG-5yr scenario to 10.2% under the PG-12yr scenario.

17 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=127

Cornwall UA / Isles of Scilly UAE060000

522001 Census 2011 Census

Workers a 213,632 245,838

Jobs b 202,186 237,288

Commuting Ratio a/b 1.06 1.04

Note: 2001 data from Census Table T101 – UK Travel Flows ; 2011 data from Census Table WU02UK - Location of

usual residence and place of work by age .

25

October 2015

Table 7: Labour Force and jobs change 2010–2030

Labour force growth is similar under the PG-12yr and SNPP-2012 scenarios, a reflection of the 4.16

higher levels of population growth over the 2010–2030 plan period (see Table 3 and Table 4).

With the lowest level of population growth, growth in the size of the labour force is smallest

under the PG-5yr scenario. The growth in the size of the labour force means that, under the

economic assumptions used, the average annual level of jobs growth that could be supported in

Cornwall ranges from 1,327 to 1,545 jobs per year.

By retaining a greater proportion of the older age-groups (60–74) in the labour force (through 4.17

increased rates of economic activity) the overall economic activity rate is maintained over the

2010–2030 plan period (Table 8). Without increased rates of economic activity in the older age

groups, the overall economic activity rate would likely decrease due to Cornwall’s ageing

population.

Table 8: Derived overall economic activity rates 2010–2030

The aggregate economic activity rates are derived by dividing the total labour force by the total population aged 16–74 (i.e. the working age population).

This population ageing is illustrated for the SNPP-2012 scenario in Table 9 and Figure 10. 4.18

Between 2010 and 2030, the proportion of the population aged 65+ increases from 21% to 29%,

with the proportion aged 80+ increasing from 6% to 10%. Over time, those born during the

2010 2030 Change % Change

SNPP-2012 256,497 282,547 26,050 10.2% 1,545

PG-12yr 256,497 282,958 26,462 10.3% 1,564

PG-10yr 256,497 280,551 24,055 9.4% 1,452

PG-5yr 256,497 277,834 21,337 8.3% 1,327

Scenario

Labour Force (16–74)Average Annual

Jobs Growth

2010 2030 Change

SNPP-2012 66.3% 67.9% 2.4%

PG-12yr 66.3% 67.9% 2.5%

PG-10yr 66.3% 67.8% 2.4%

PG-5yr 66.3% 67.4% 1.7%

Scenario

Aggregate Economic Activity Rate (16–74)

26

October 2015

1950s, 60s and 70s move into the retirement ages (i.e. out of the labour force), altering the

balance of population in the younger and older age groups. This ageing results in an increasing

old age dependency ratio, from 34.1 to 51.5. Population decline occurs in the 40–55 age groups,

with population growth in all other ages (Figure 10), most noticeably in the 65+ age groups.

Table 9: Population age structure under the SNPP-2012

Old Age Dependency Ratio = (Population aged 65+ / Population Aged 15–64)

Figure 10: Cornwall’s population age profile under the SNPP-2012 scenario. Note that green indicates ages in which population growth has

occurred 2010–2030 and red population decline

Aligning Jobs Growth & Population Growth

The application of the economic assumptions to the demographic forecasts has produced a range 4.19

of jobs growth outcomes for Cornwall. With increased economic activity rates in the older age-

groups, a fixed commuting ratio and a reducing unemployment rate, the level of jobs growth that

could be supported in Cornwall ranges from 1,327 to 1,545 jobs per year. With these

2010 2030 Change

21% 29% 7%

6% 10% 4%

34.1 51.5 17.4Old age dependency ratio

Indicator

Percentage 65+

Percentage 80+

27

October 2015

assumptions, the overall rate of economic activity is maintained under each of the four

demographic scenarios.

In the consideration of future jobs growth in an area, the PPG states that ‘economic forecasts’ 4.20

should be considered (PPG paragraph 2a-018). For Cornwall, this employment forecast is

provided by Ash Futures Ltd., who undertook an independent review of likely future economic

growth in Cornwall in August 201518. In the following sections, this employment forecast is linked

to the demographic scenarios through sensitivity testing around the three key economic

assumptions.

Ash Futures Employment Forecast

In its August 2015 Employment Projections report for Cornwall, Ash Futures Ltd. states: “in 4.21

‘planning for growth’, we estimate that a figure of around 33,000 new jobs may be considered

appropriate, or a full-time equivalent figure of 28,000.” (page 2618). This equates to an average

annual growth of 1,867 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs per year (2015–2030).

When compared to the derived level of jobs growth in the demographic scenarios, the Ash 4.22

Futures jobs growth is higher (Figure 11).

Figure 11: Average annual jobs growth comparison (source: Edge Analytics and Ash Futures Ltd.)

18 Cornwall Employment Projections to Inform Housing Needs Analysis, Supporting Technical Advice. Ash

Futures Ltd. August 2015

28

October 2015

However, it is important to note that the level of jobs growth in the Edge Analytics scenarios is a 4.23

result of the economic assumptions made; if any of these assumptions were to be altered, the

resulting level of jobs growth that could be supported under these scenarios would change. For

example, a greater reduction in unemployment or a reduced net out-commute would increase

the number of jobs that could be supported by the resident population.

Jobs-led Scenarios in POPGROUP

The demographic implications of employment forecasts can be assessed through POPGROUP 4.24

using a ‘jobs-led’ configuration of the model. In a jobs-led scenario, population growth is

determined by growth in the number of jobs, using the three key economic assumptions

(economic activity rates, the unemployment rate and the commuting ratio). If there is an

imbalance between the resident labour force and the number of jobs, net migration is used to

redress this. A higher level of net in-migration will occur if there is insufficient resident

population and labour force to meet the forecast number of jobs. A higher level of net

out-migration will occur if the population is too high relative to the number of jobs.

To evaluate the demographic implications of the Ash Futures employment forecast, a Jobs-led 4.25

scenario has been run in POPGROUP, with annual jobs growth targets applied in each year from

2015 to 203019. Household growth has been assessed through the application of assumptions

from the 2012-based and 2008-based DCLG household projection models, producing two

alternative household growth outcomes (Table 10 and Table 11).

With the economic assumptions applied, the level of population growth required to support the 4.26

additional 1,867 jobs per year 2015–2030 is higher than the level of population growth in any of

the demographic scenarios. Under the Jobs-led scenario, the population of Cornwall increases by

19.7% between 2010 and 2030, an additional 17,500 people when compared to the benchmark

SNPP-2012 scenario (Table 10).

The higher level of population growth under the Jobs-led scenario is a result of the economic 4.27

assumptions used and the level of net migration needed to meet the defined jobs growth targets.

Under the Jobs-led scenario, net migration averages approximately 5,160 per year over the plan

19

In the scenario output in Appendix A, the scenario results are presented for the 2010–2035 period; in the Jobs-led scenario the annual average jobs growth 2030/31–2034/35 is the same as in the preceding years i.e. 1,867 jobs per year.

29

October 2015

period; nearly 850 more people per year than under the SNPP-2012 scenario (Table 10). Note

that if different economic assumptions were to be applied, the level of net internal migration

(and therefore population and household growth) needed to support the defined level of jobs

growth would alter.

Table 10: Jobs-led scenario outcome comparison (HH-12)

Table 11: Jobs-led scenario outcome comparison (HH-08)

In the following sections, the sensitivity of the population and household growth outcomes of the 4.28

Jobs-led scenario to alterations to unemployment rate and commuting ratio is evaluated through

a range of ‘sensitivity’ scenarios. These alternative assumptions have also been applied to the

SNPP-2012 benchmark scenario, to illustrate the impact that these have on the labour force and

jobs growth outcomes.

Economic Sensitivity Scenarios

Three economic sensitivity scenarios have been developed, in which alternative commuting ratio 4.29

and unemployment rate assumptions have been applied to the Jobs-led scenario, and to the

SNPP-2012 scenario. The assumptions used in each sensitivity are described in the following

paragraphs and are summarised in Table 12 on page 31.

For further detail on these assumptions, refer to Appendix C. 4.30

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-12) 104,515 19.7% 51,409 22.4% 5,157 1,981

SNPP-2012 (HH-12) 87,002 16.4% 44,348 19.3% 4,310 1,545

Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

Scenario

Change 2010–2030 Average

Annual Net

Migration

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-08) 104,515 19.7% 53,554 23.3% 5,157 1,981

SNPP-2012 (HH-08) 87,002 16.4% 46,470 20.2% 4,310 1,545

Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

Scenario

Change 2010–2030 Average

Annual Net

Migration

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October 2015

Sensitivity Scenario Assumptions

Unemployment Rate Sensitivity: SENS A

In the scenarios presented above, the unemployment rate has been incrementally reduced 4.31

between 2014 and 2021 to account for economic recovery following the recession.

In SENS A, an alternative unemployment rate profile has been applied, in which the rate reduces 4.32

to 3.5% by 2021, then to 3.0% by 2030. This represents a greater reduction in unemployment

than that defined in the baseline scenarios.

In this sensitivity, the economic activity rate and commuting ratio assumptions are consistent 4.33

with the scenarios presented above.

Commuting Ratio Sensitivity: SENS B & SENS C

In the scenarios presented above (and in SENS A) the commuting ratio has been fixed at the 2011 4.34

Census value throughout the forecast period. At 1.04, this indicates a net out-commute from

Cornwall, i.e. the number of ‘workers’ (the size of the labour force) exceeds the number of jobs in

Cornwall. This represents a lower net out-commute than that recorded at the 2001 Census (a

ratio of 1.06).

In the following two sensitivities, the commuting ratio has been altered over the 2011–2021 time 4.35

period (after 2021 the commuting ratio is fixed):

SENS B: From 2011, the commuting ratio reduces at the rate seen between the 2001

and 2011 Censuses, reaching a value of 1.02 by 2021.

SENS C: From 2011, the commuting ratio returns to the 2001 Census value of 1.06 by

2021.

These commuting ratio assumptions have been applied in combination with the alternative 4.36

unemployment rate profile from SENS A. The economic activity rate assumptions are consistent

with all other scenarios.

Summary of Economic Assumptions

The economic assumptions that have been used in the scenarios are summarised below in Table 4.37

12.

31

October 2015

Table 12: Economic assumptions used in the POPGROUP modelling

Sensitivity Economic Assumptions

Economic Activity Rates Unemployment Rate Commuting Ratio

Baseline

2011 Census EA Rates, fixed for each 5-year age group (ages 16–74) and sex, with the OBR adjustments to the 60–74 age groups

Unemployment rate incrementally reduces from 5.1% in 2014 to 4.1% by 2021, fixed thereafter

Commuting ratio fixed at the 2011 Census value of 1.04

SENS A

2011 Census EA Rates, fixed for each 5-year age group (ages 16–74) and sex, with the OBR adjustments to the 60–74 age groups

Unemployment rate incrementally reduces from 5.1% in 2014 to 3.5% by 2021, then to 3.0% by 2030

Commuting ratio fixed at the 2011 Census value of 1.04

SENS B

2011 Census EA Rates, fixed for each 5-year age group (ages 16–74) and sex, with the OBR adjustments to the 60–74 age groups

Unemployment rate incrementally reduces from 5.1% in 2014 to 3.5% by 2021, then to 3.0% by 2030

Commuting ratio reduces from 2011 value of 1.04 to 1.02 by 2021, fixed thereafter

SENS C

2011 Census EA Rates, fixed for each 5-year age group (ages 16–74) and sex, with the OBR adjustments to the 60–74 age groups

Unemployment rate incrementally reduces from 5.1% in 2014 to 3.5% by 2021, then to 3.0% by 2030

Commuting ratio increases from 2011 value of 1.04 to 1.06 by 2021, fixed thereafter

For further detail on the assumptions used, refer to Appendix C.

Jobs-led Sensitivity Scenario Outcomes

The Jobs-led sensitivity scenario outcomes are summarised in Figure 12, Table 13 and Table 14, 4.38

with the ‘baseline’ Jobs-led scenario included for comparison. Household growth has been

assessed through the application of assumptions from the 2012-based and 2008-based DCLG

household projection models, producing two alternative household growth outcomes (HH-12 and

HH-08).

In all instances, the Jobs-led sensitivity scenarios result in lower levels of population growth than 4.39

the baseline scenario alternative. As in the demographic scenarios, household growth outcomes

in the Jobs-led scenarios are derived from the population, using the DCLG household growth

assumptions. Therefore, the highest levels of population growth are linked to the highest levels

of household growth. In all instances, household growth is higher under the HH-08 outcome (i.e.

using the 2008-based household growth assumptions).

32

October 2015

Cornwall: Jobs-led Sensitivity Scenario Outcomes 2010–2030

Figure 12: Population growth under the Jobs-led sensitivity scenarios. Note that the SNPP-2012 population growth trajectory is included for comparison

Table 13: Jobs-led sensitivity scenario outcomes 2010–2030 (HH-12)

Table 14: Jobs-led sensitivity scenario outcomes 2010–2030 (HH-08)

Note: In the scenario alternatives presented above, the average annual jobs growth figures vary, despite the same jobs growth targets being applied in each Jobs-led scenario. This is because the jobs growth targets have been applied from 2015/16 to 2029/30. The historical MYEs are defined from 2001 to 2014. In the years where the MYEs are defined, and in 2014/15, the labour force and jobs are derived from the population using the three key economic assumptions. This results in a different level of jobs growth over the 2010–2030 plan period.

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-12) 104,515 19.7% 51,409 22.4% 5,157 1,981

Jobs-led SENS A (HH-12) 99,026 18.7% 49,278 21.5% 4,912 1,991

Jobs-led SENS B (HH-12) 91,776 17.3% 46,424 20.2% 4,603 2,089

Jobs-led SENS C (HH-12) 106,177 20.0% 52,090 22.7% 5,217 1,896

Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

Change 2010–2030 Average

Annual Net

Migration

Scenario

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-08) 104,515 19.7% 53,554 23.3% 5,157 1,981

Jobs-led SENS A (HH-08) 99,026 18.7% 51,389 22.4% 4,912 1,991

Jobs-led SENS B (HH-08) 91,776 17.3% 48,482 21.1% 4,603 2,089

Jobs-led SENS C (HH-08) 106,177 20.0% 54,253 23.6% 5,217 1,896

Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

Average

Annual Net

Migration

Scenario

Change 2010–2030

33

October 2015

In SENS A, the unemployment rate has been reduced by a greater extent than in the baseline 4.40

scenarios. This increases the proportion of the resident labour force that is in employment. This

has the effect of reducing the level of net migration needed to meet the jobs growth targets to

4,912 per year. This lower level of population growth results in a reduced level of household

growth, at 2,464 households per year (under the HH-12 outcome).

In SENS B and SENS C, commuting ratio adjustments are applied in combination with the 4.41

unemployment assumptions of SENS A. In SENS B, the commuting ratio has been incrementally

reduced between 2011 and 2021, reducing the net out-commute from Cornwall. This has the

effect of increasing the proportion of residents working in Cornwall, reducing the level of net in-

migration needed to meet the jobs growth targets. This sensitivity scenario results in the lowest

level of population growth 2010–2030, at 17.3% (compared to 24.2% using the baseline

assumptions).

In SENS C, the commuting ratio has been incrementally increased between 2011 and 2021, 4.42

increasing the net out-commute from Cornwall. This results in a greater proportion of residents

commuting out of Cornwall for work, increasing the level of net in-migration needed to meet the

jobs growth targets. Population growth under SENS C is similar to that under the baseline

Jobs-led scenario (at 20.0% and 19.7% respectively).

SNPP-2012 Sensitvity Scenario Outcomes

The three alternative sets of economic assumptions (see Table 12) have been applied to the 4.43

SNPP-2012 scenario. These results are summarised in Table 15. Note that only the labour force

and jobs growth implications are presented, as the population and household growth outcomes

are consistent with the main SNPP-2012 scenario alternative (presented in Figure 8, Table 3 and

Table 4).

In each sensitivity, the same economic activity rate profile has been applied (i.e. the OBR 4.44

adjustments to the older age groups) to the SNPP-2012 population. As the population does not

differ, the labour force growth outcome is the same under each sensitivity.

The level of jobs growth that could be supported under the SNPP-2012 scenario ranges from 4.45

1,545 jobs per year using the baseline assumptions, to 1,956 jobs per year under the SENS B

alternative.

34

October 2015

Table 15: SNPP-2012 sensitivity scenario outcomes 2010–2030

Note that the Labour Force is ages 16–74. For detail on the economic assumptions used in each scenario, refer to Table 12

SNPP-2012 (HH-12)

SNPP-2012 SENS A

SNPP-2012 SENS B

SNPP-2012 SENS C

26,050

26,050

26,050

26,050

1,545

1,688

1,956

1,430

Total Labour Force Growth Average Annual Jobs GrowthScenario

Change 2010–2030

35

October 2015

5 Summary

Requirements Summary & Approach

Cornwall Council has commissioned Edge Analytics to provide a range of demographic scenarios 5.1

for Cornwall, using the latest population and household growth assumptions.

Edge Analytics has produced a range of scenarios using POPGROUP v.4 technology. In line with 5.2

the PPG, the latest 2012-based population and household projections from the ONS and DCLG

are included as the official benchmark.

Using the latest historical mid-year population estimates, alternative trend-based scenarios have 5.3

been developed, based on a 5-year, 10-year and 12-year migration history.

In response to the Inspector’s comments, household growth has been assessed using 5.4

assumptions from both the 2012-based and the earlier 2008-based DCLG household projection

models.

In line with the PPG, population growth has been linked to economic growth through the 5.5

development of jobs-led scenarios and the sensitivity testing of the key economic assumptions. In

the Jobs-led scenarios, population growth is linked to the employment forecast as defined by Ash

Futures Ltd.

Household Growth Summary

Over the 2010–2030 plan period, the general pattern resulting from the 2012-based headship 5.6

rate outcomes (HH-12) is for a lower rate of projected household growth when compared to the

2008-based headship rate outcomes (HH-08).

With the inclusion of the demographic scenarios and the jobs-led sensitivity scenarios, household 5.7

growth ranges from 2,119 to 2,604 households per year under the HH-12 outcome (i.e. using the

latest 2012-based household growth assumptions). Using the earlier 2008-based household

36

October 2015

growth assumptions, household growth averages 2,226–2,713 households per year (Table 16).

Household growth is highest under the Jobs-led scenarios (including the economic sensitivities)

and lowest under the ‘short-term’ migration scenario, the PG-5yr scenario.

Table 16: Average Annual Household Growth (2010–2030)

Scenarios are ranked in order of average annual household growth under the HH-12 alternative. Economic sensitivity scenarios are shaded in grey and the benchmark SNPP-2012 is highlighted in bold.

Linking Population & Jobs Growth

In line with the PPG, Edge Analytics has considered the labour force and jobs growth implications 5.8

of the demographic scenarios and has produced a range of jobs-led scenarios to evaluate the

demographic implications of the Ash Futures employment forecast for Cornwall. This has

included a range of economic sensitivity scenarios, in which the commuting ratio and

unemployment rate assumptions have been altered.

This analysis has suggested that under the benchmark SNPP-2012 scenario, 1,430 to 1,956 jobs 5.9

per year could be supported in Cornwall between 2010 and 2030, depending on the economic

assumptions applied. The top end of this range is slightly higher than the level of jobs growth in

the Ash Futures employment forecast. However, to support this level of jobs growth, this analysis

has suggested that any combination of the following would likely need to occur in Cornwall:

(a) increased rates of economic activity/ participation, particularly in the older age groups; (b) a

reducing unemployment rate; (c) a reduced net out-commute from Cornwall; and (d) an

increased level of net internal in-migration.

Jobs-led SENS C

Jobs-led

Jobs-led SENS A

Jobs-led SENS B

PG-12yr

SNPP-2012

PG-10yr

PG-5yr 2,119 2,226

2,570

2,604

2,464

2,321

2,678

2,713

2,569

2,424

2,276 2,390

2,217 2,323

2,174 2,283

ScenarioAverage Annual Household Growth 2010–2030

HH-12 HH-08

37

October 2015

For Future Consideration

The DCLG 2012-based household projections replaces the previous 2011-based interim 5.10

household projections, providing new assumptions on future rates of household formation,

incorporating more detail from the 2011 Census.

The 2012-based household projections, in conjunction with the 2012-based SNPP, provide a new 5.11

‘benchmark’ for local housing requirements evidence. In line with the PPG, these projections

should form the ‘starting point’ for the assessment of future housing requirements. However, the

PPG also states that:

“Wherever possible, local needs assessments should be informed by the latest

available information. The National Planning Policy Framework is clear that Local

Plans should be kept up-to-date. A meaningful change in the housing situation

should be considered in this context, but this does not automatically mean that

housing assessments are rendered outdated every time new projections are issued.”

(PPG Paragraph 2a-016)

This latest DCLG 2012-based household projection data has provided national and local authority 5.12

projections and assumptions for the total number of households by age-group and relationship-

status group (i.e. Stage One). DCLG intends to release additional data (Stage Two) which enables

disaggregation of these projections by each of seventeen household types, although a date for

the future release of this information has not been set. Whilst this new data will provide further

detail to the household outputs, it is our understanding that this is not expected to change the

household growth totals implied by the Stage One output, which will continue to provide the

controlling totals for each local authority district.

It is recommended that the scenario outcomes are reconsidered when the Stage Two data is 5.13

released by DCLG, providing additional detail on the profile of growth by household-type implied

by the 2012-based household projection assumptions.

In addition, ONS will be releasing a new ‘national’ 2014-based population projection at the end of 5.14

2015. This will provide an important update on the long-term assumptions for international

migration.

38

October 2015

Appendix A

Scenario Results 2010–2035

A.1 In the following charts and tables, the scenario results are presented for the 2010–2035 period.

39

October 2015

Cornwall: Scenario Outcomes 2010–2035

Figure 13: Cornwall scenario outcomes: population growth 2001–2035

Table 17: Cornwall HH-12 scenario outcomes (2010–2035)

Table 18: Cornwall HH-08 scenario outcomes (2010–2035)

Note: The PG scenarios presented for the 2010–2035 period include four years of historical data. The SNPP-2012 scenario includes two years of historical data.

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

SNPP-2012 (HH-12) 104,280 19.7% 53,905 23.5% 4,290

PG-12yr (HH-12) 100,373 18.9% 55,379 24.1% 4,238

PG-10yr (HH-12) 95,133 18.0% 52,806 23.0% 4,031

PG-5yr (HH-12) 93,641 17.7% 51,451 22.4% 4,042

Scenario

Change 2010–2035 Average

Annual Net

Migration

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

SNPP-2012 (HH-08) 104,280 19.7% 56,095 24.4% 4,290

PG-12yr (HH-08) 100,373 18.9% 57,603 25.1% 4,238

PG-10yr (HH-08) 95,133 18.0% 54,928 23.9% 4,031

PG-5yr (HH-08) 93,641 17.7% 53,528 23.3% 4,042

Scenario

Change 2010–2035 Average

Annual Net

Migration

40

October 2015

Table 19: Labour Force and jobs change 2010–2035

Table 20: Derived overall economic activity rates 2010–2035

Table 21: Jobs-led scenario outcome comparison (HH-12)

Table 22: Jobs-led scenario outcome comparison (HH-08)

2010 2035 Change % Change

SNPP-2012 256,497 286,826 30,329 11.8% 1,394

PG-12yr 256,497 286,952 30,456 11.9% 1,399

PG-10yr 256,497 284,012 27,515 10.7% 1,290

PG-5yr 256,497 280,519 24,022 9.4% 1,161

Scenario

Labour Force (16–74)Average Annual

Jobs Growth

2010 2035 Change

SNPP-2012 66.3% 67.7% 2.1%

PG-12yr 66.3% 67.7% 2.1%

PG-10yr 66.3% 67.6% 2.0%

PG-5yr 66.3% 67.2% 1.4%

Aggregate Economic Activity Rate (16–74)

Scenario

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-12) 133,198 25.1% 65,367 28.5% 5,372 1,958

SNPP-2012 (HH-12) 104,280 19.7% 53,905 23.5% 4,290 1,394

Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

Scenario

Change 2010–2035 Average

Annual Net

Migration

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-08) 133,198 25.1% 67,634 29.4% 5,372 1,958

SNPP-2012 (HH-08) 104,280 19.7% 56,095 24.4% 4,290 1,394

Scenario

Change 2010–2035 Average

Annual Net

Migration

Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

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Cornwall: Jobs-led Sensitivity Scenario Outcomes 2010–2035

Figure 14: Population growth under the Jobs-led sensitivity scenarios. Note that the SNPP-2012 population growth trajectory is included for comparison

Table 23: Jobs-led sensitivity scenario outcomes 2010–2035 (HH-12)

Table 24: Jobs-led sensitivity scenario outcomes 2010–2035 (HH-08)

Note: In the scenario alternatives presented above, the average annual jobs growth figures vary, despite the same jobs growth targets being applied in each Jobs-led scenario. This is because the jobs growth targets have been applied from 2015/16 to 2034/35. The historical MYEs are defined from 2001 to 2014. In the years where the MYEs are defined, and in 2014/15, the labour force and jobs are derived from the population using the three key economic assumptions. This results in a different level of jobs growth over the 2010–2035 plan period.

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-12) 133,198 25.1% 65,367 28.5% 5,372 1,958

Jobs-led SENS A (HH-12) 127,209 24.0% 62,987 27.4% 5,168 1,967

Jobs-led SENS B (HH-12) 119,379 22.5% 59,859 26.1% 4,909 2,044

Jobs-led SENS C (HH-12) 134,937 25.5% 66,069 28.8% 5,423 1,890

Scenario

Change 2010–2035 Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

Average

Annual Net

Migration

Population

Change

Population

Change %

Households

Change

Households

Change %

Jobs-led (HH-08) 133,198 25.1% 67,634 29.4% 5,372 1,958

Jobs-led SENS A (HH-08) 127,209 24.0% 65,200 28.4% 5,168 1,967

Jobs-led SENS B (HH-08) 119,379 22.5% 62,006 27.0% 4,909 2,044

Jobs-led SENS C (HH-08) 134,937 25.5% 68,350 29.8% 5,423 1,890

Scenario

Change 2010–2035 Average

Annual

Jobs Growth

Average

Annual Net

Migration

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October 2015

Table 25: SNPP-2012 sensitivity scenario outcomes 2010–2035

Note that the Labour Force is ages 16–74. For detail on the economic assumptions used in each scenario, refer to Table 11.

Table 26: Average Annual Household Growth (2010–2035)

Scenarios are ranked in order of average annual household growth under the HH-12 alternative. Economic sensitivity scenarios are shaded in grey and the benchmark SNPP-2012 is highlighted in bold.

SNPP-2012 (HH-12)

SNPP-2012 SENS A

SNPP-2012 SENS B

SNPP-2012 SENS C

Total Labour Force Growth Average Annual Jobs GrowthScenario

Change 2010–2035

30,329

30,329

30,329

30,329

1,394

1,511

1,728

1,301

Jobs-led SENS C

Jobs-led

Jobs-led SENS A

Jobs-led SENS B

PG-12yr

SNPP-2012

PG-10yr

PG-5yr

2,304

2,244

2,197

2,141

Average Annual Household Growth 2010–2035Scenario

2,394

2,215

2,156

2,112

2,058

HH-08

2,734

2,705

2,608

2,480

HH-12

2,643

2,615

2,519

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Appendix B

POPGROUP Methodology

B.1 Evidence is often challenged on the basis of the appropriateness of the methodology that has

been employed to develop growth forecasts. The use of a recognised forecasting product which

incorporates an industry-standard methodology (a cohort component model) removes this

obstacle and enables a focus on assumptions and output, rather than methods.

B.2 Demographic forecasts have been developed using the POPGROUP suite of products. POPGROUP

is a family of demographic models that enables forecasts to be derived for population,

households and the labour force, for areas and social groups. The main POPGROUP model (Figure

15) is a cohort component model, which enables the development of population forecasts based

on births, deaths and migration inputs and assumptions.

B.3 The Derived Forecast (DF) model (Figure 16) sits alongside the population model, providing a

headship rate model for household projections and an economic activity rate model for labour-

force projections.

B.4 The latest development in the POPGROUP suite of demographic models is POPGROUP v.4, which

was released in January 2014. A number of changes have been made to the POPGROUP model to

improve its operation and to ensure greater consistency with ONS forecasting methods. The most

significant methodological change relates to the handling of internal migration in the POPGROUP

forecasting model. The level of internal in-migration to an area is now calculated as a rate of

migration relative to a defined ‘reference population’ (by default the UK population), rather than

as a rate of migration relative to the population of the area itself (as in POPGROUP v3.1). This

approach ensures a closer alignment with the ‘multi-regional’ approach to modelling migration

that is used by ONS.

B.5 For further information on POPGROUP, please refer to the Edge Analytics website

(http://www.edgeanalytics.co.uk/).

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Figure 15: POPGROUP population projection methodology

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October 2015

Figure 16: Derived Forecast (DF) methodology

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October 2015

Appendix C

Data Inputs & Assumptions

Introduction

C.1 Edge Analytics has developed a suite of demographic scenarios for Cornwall using POPGROUP v.4

and the Derived Forecast model. The POPGROUP suite of demographic models draw data from a

number of sources, building an historical picture of population, households, fertility, mortality

and migration on which to base its scenario forecasts. Using historical data evidence for

2001–2014, in conjunction with information from ONS sub-national population projections

(SNPPs) and DCLG household projections, a series of assumptions have been derived which drive

the scenario forecasts.

C.2 The following scenarios have been developed:

SNPP-2012

PG-5yr

PG-10yr

PG-12yr

Jobs-led

C.3 A range of economic sensitivity scenarios has also been developed, in which the commuting ratio

and unemployment rate assumptions have been altered.

C.4 In all scenarios, household growth has been assessed using assumptions from the latest 2012-

based and the earlier 2008-based DCLG household projection models.

C.5 In the following sections, a narrative on the data inputs and assumptions underpinning the

scenarios is presented.

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Population, Births & Deaths

Population

C.6 In each scenario, historical population statistics are provided by the mid-year population

estimates (MYEs), with all data recorded by single-year of age and sex. These data include the

revised MYEs for 2002–2010, which were released by the ONS in May 2013. The revised MYEs

provide consistency in the measurement of the components of change (i.e. births, deaths,

internal migration and international migration) between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses.

C.7 In the SNPP-2012 scenario, the historical MYEs are defined up to 2012. From 2012, future

population counts are provided by single-year of age and sex to ensure consistency with the

trajectory of the ONS 2012-based SNPP.

C.8 In the PG and Jobs-led scenarios, the historical MYEs are defined up to 2014.

Births & Fertility

C.9 In each scenario, historical mid-year to mid-year counts of births by sex have been sourced from

the ONS MYEs.

C.10 In the SNPP-2012 scenario, historical births are defined from 2001/02 to 2011/12. From 2012/13,

future counts of births are specified to ensure consistency with the 2012-based official

projection.

C.11 In the PG and Jobs-led scenarios, historical births are defined from 2001/02 to 2013/14. From

2014/15, a ‘local’ (i.e. area-specific) age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) schedule is included in the

POPGROUP model assumptions. This is derived from the ONS 2012-based SNPP. Long-term

assumptions on changes in age-specific fertility rates are taken from the ONS 2012-based SNPP.

In combination with the ‘population-at-risk’ (i.e. all women between the ages of 15–49), the

area-specific ASFR and future fertility rate assumptions provide the basis for the calculation of

births in each year of the forecast period (i.e. from 2014 onwards).

Deaths & Mortality

C.12 In each scenario, historical mid-year to mid-year counts of deaths by age and sex have been

sourced from the ONS MYEs.

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October 2015

C.13 In the SNPP-2012 scenario, historical deaths are defined from 2001/02 to 2011/12. From

2012/13, future counts of deaths are specified to ensure consistency with the 2012-based official

projection.

C.14 In the PG and Jobs-led scenarios, historical deaths are defined from 2001/02 to 2013/14. From

2014/15, a ‘local’ (i.e. area-specific) age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) schedule is included in the

POPGROUP model assumptions. This is derived from the ONS 2012-based SNPP. Long-term

assumptions on changes in age-specific mortality rates are taken from the ONS 2012-based SNPP.

In combination with the ‘population-at-risk’ (i.e. the total population), the area-specific ASMR

and future mortality rate assumptions provide the basis for the calculation of deaths in each year

of the forecast period (i.e. from 2014 onwards).

Migration

Internal Migration

C.15 In each scenario, historical mid-year to mid-year estimates of in- and out-migration by 5-year age

group and sex have been sourced from the ‘components of population change’ files that

underpin the ONS MYEs. These internal migration flows are estimated using data from the

Patient Register (PR), the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) and the Higher

Education Statistics Agency (HESA).

C.16 In the SNPP-2012 scenario, historical counts of internal in and out-migrants are defined from

2001/02 to 2011/12. From 2012/13, future counts of migrants are specified, to ensure

consistency with the 2012-based official projection.

C.17 In the PG scenarios, historical counts of migrants are defined from 2001/02 to 2013/14. From

2014/15, future internal migration flows are based on the area-specific historical migration data.

In the PG-5yr scenario, a five year internal migration history is used (2009/10 to 2013/14). In the

PG-10yr scenario, a ten year history is used (2004/05 to 2013/14). In the PG-12yr scenario, a

twelve year history is used (2002/03 to 2013/14).

C.18 The relevant historical time period is used in the PG scenarios to derive the age-specific migration

rate (ASMigR) schedules, which are then used to determine the future number of internal in- and

out-migrants from 2014/15. In the case of internal in-migration, the ASMigR schedules are

49

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applied to an external ‘reference’ population (i.e. the population ‘at-risk’ of migrating into the

area). This is different to the other components (i.e. births, deaths, internal out-migration),

where the schedule of rates is applied to the area-specific population (i.e. the population ‘at-risk’

of migrating out of the area). The reference population is defined by considering the areas which

have historically contributed the majority of internal migrants into the area. In the case of

Cornwall, the reference population is defined as the UK population.

C.19 The Jobs-led scenarios calculate their own internal migration assumptions to ensure an

appropriate balance between the population and the targeted increase in the number of jobs

that is defined in each year of the forecast period. A higher level of net internal migration will

occur if there is insufficient population and resident labour force to meet the forecast number of

jobs. In the Jobs-led scenarios, the profile of internal migrants is defined by an ASMigR schedule,

derived from the ONS 2012-based SNPP.

International Migration

C.20 In each scenario, historical mid-year to mid-year counts of immigration and emigration by 5-year

age group and sex have been sourced from the ‘components of population change’ files that

underpin the ONS MYEs. Any ‘adjustments’ made to the MYEs to account for asylum cases are

included in the international migration balance.

C.21 In all scenarios, future international migrant counts are specified.

C.22 In the SNPP-2012 scenario, historical counts of migrants are defined from 2001/02 to 2011/12.

From 2012/13, the international in- and out-migration counts are drawn directly from the 2012-

based official projection.

C.23 In the PG scenarios, historical mid-year to mid-year counts of immigration and emigration by 5-

year age group and sex are defined from 2001/02 to 2013/14. From 2014/15, future international

migration counts are derived from the area-specific historical migration data. In the PG-5yr

scenario, a five year international migration history is used (2009/10 to 2013/14). In the PG-10yr

scenario, a ten year history is used (2004/05 to 2013/14). In the PG-12yr scenario, a twelve year

history is used (2002/03 to 2013/14).

C.24 Implied within the international migration component of change in the PG scenarios is an

'unattributable population change' (UPC) figure, which ONS identified within its latest mid-year

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estimate revisions. The UPC component has been assigned to the international migration

component as it is the component with the greatest uncertainty associated with its estimation.

C.25 In the PG scenarios, an ASMigR schedule of rates is derived from a 5-year, 10-year or 12-year

migration history and is used to distribute future counts by single year of age.

C.26 In the Jobs-led scenarios, international migration counts are taken from the ONS 2012-based

SNPP (i.e. counts are consistent with the SNPP-2012 scenario). An ASMigR schedule of rates from

the ONS 2012-based SNPP is used to distribute future counts by single year of age.

Households

C.27 The 2011 Census defines a household as:

“one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the

same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or

dining area.”

C.28 In all scenarios, the household implications of the population growth trajectory have been

evaluated through the application of headship rate statistics and communal population statistics.

These data assumptions have been sourced from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses and the 2008-

based and 2012-based household projection models from the DCLG.

Household Headship Rates

C.29 A household headship rate (also known as household representative rate) is the “probability of

anyone in a particular demographic group being classified as being a household representative”20.

C.30 The household headship rates used in the POPGROUP modelling have been taken from the DCLG

2008-based and 2012-based household projections. The DCLG household projections are derived

through the application of projected household representative rates (also referred to as headship

rates) to a projection of the private household population.

20 Household Projections 2012-based: Methodological Report. Department for Communities and Local Government ( February 2015). https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/2012-based-household-projections-methodology

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October 2015

C.31 In the scenarios presented here, headship rate assumptions have been sourced from the new

2012-based household projection model, and from the earlier 2008-based models, producing two

alternative outcomes for each scenario:

In the HH-12 outcome, the 2012-based DCLG headship rates are applied.

In the HH-08 outcome, the 2008-based DCLG headship rates are applied, scaled to be

consistent with the 2011 DCLG household total, but following the original trend

thereafter.

2012-based Headship Rates

C.32 The 2012-based headship rates have been sourced from the new 2012-based household

projection model from DCLG. The methodology used by DCLG in its household projection models

consists of two distinct stages:

Stage One produces the national and local authority projections for the total number

of households by sex, age-group and relationship-status group over the projection

period. All Stage One output and assumptions for the 2012-based household

projection model has been released by DCLG.

Stage Two provides the detailed ‘household-type’ projection by age-group, controlled

to the previous Stage One totals. Stage Two assumptions and output for the 2012-

based model have yet to be released by DCLG.

C.33 In POPGROUP, the 2012-based headship rates are defined by age, sex and relationship status.

These rates therefore determine the likelihood of person of a particular age-group, sex and

relationship status being head of a household in a particular year, given the age-sex structure of

the population.

2008-based Headship Rates

C.34 The 2008-based headship rates are provided by age-group and household type and therefore

define the likelihood of a particular household type being formed in a particular year, given the

age-sex profile of the population. Household-types are modelled with a 17-fold classification

(Table 27).

C.35 The 2008-based headship rates are scaled to the 2011 DCLG household total from the 2012-

based household projection model, following the original trend thereafter.

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Table 27: Household type classification

ONS Code DF Label Household Type

OPM OPMAL One person households: Male

OPF OPFEM One person households: Female

OCZZP FAMC0 One family and no others: Couple: No dependent children

OC1P FAMC1 One family and no others: Couple: 1 dependent child

OC2P FAMC2 One family and no others: Couple: 2 dependent children

OC3P FAMC3 One family and no others: Couple: 3+ dependent children

OL1P FAML1 One family and no others: Lone parent: 1 dependent child

OL2P FAML2 One family and no others: Lone parent: 2 dependent children

OL3P FAML3 One family and no others: Lone parent: 3+ dependent children

MCZDP MIX C0 A couple and one or more other adults: No dependent children

MC1P MIX C1 A couple and one or more other adults: 1 dependent child

MC2P MIX C2 A couple and one or more other adults: 2 dependent children

MC3P MIX C3 A couple and one or more other adults: 3+ dependent children

ML1P MIX L1 A lone parent and one or more other adults: 1 dependent child

ML2P MIX L2 A lone parent and one or more other adults: 2 dependent children

ML3P MIX L3 A lone parent and one or more other adults: 3+ dependent children

OTAP OTHHH Other households

TOT TOTHH Total

Communal Population Statistics

C.36 Household projections in POPGROUP exclude the population ‘not-in-households’ (i.e. the

communal/institutional population). These data are drawn from the DCLG 2012-based household

projections, which use statistics from the 2011 Census. Examples of communal establishments

include prisons, residential care homes and student halls of residence.

C.37 For ages 0–74, the number of people in each age group ‘not-in-households’ is kept fixed

throughout the forecast period. For ages 75–85+, the proportion of the population ‘not-in-

households’ is recorded. Therefore, the population not-in-households for ages 75–85+ varies

across the forecast period depending on the size of the population.

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Labour Force & Jobs

C.38 In the demographic scenarios, the labour force and jobs growth implications of the population

growth trajectory have been evaluated through the application of three key data items:

economic activity rates, an unemployment rate and a commuting ratio. In the jobs-led scenarios,

these three assumptions are used to determine the level of population growth required by the

defined jobs growth trajectory.

Economic Activity Rates

C.39 The economic activity rates determine the size of the labour force, which includes those in

employment and those who are unemployed. The economic activity rates used in the POPGROUP

modelling have been derived from the 2011 Census economic activity rates for Cornwall.

C.40 In each scenario, the 2011 Census economic activity rates by 5-year age group and sex have been

applied, with the following age-specific adjustments made, based on OBR labour market

analysis21:

Males

60–64: 17%

65–69: 39%

70–74: 20%

Females

60–64: 71%

65–69: 93%

70–74: 83%

C.41 The above alterations to the economic activity rates have been incrementally applied over a

20-year (2011–2031) period (Figure 17).

Figure 17: Economic activity rate profile for Cornwall

21 Budget responsiblity website [link expired]

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October 2015

Unemployment Rate

C.42 The unemployment rate determines the proportion of the labour force that is unemployed.

Together with the commuting ratio, this controls the balance between the size of the labour

force and the number of jobs within an area. In all scenarios, historical unemployment rates up to

2014 have been sourced from the ONS model-based estimates of unemployment from the

Annual Population Survey (APS) from Nomis for Cornwall (Table 28).

Table 28: Cornwall model-based unemployment rate estimates (source: ONS)

Baseline Unemployment Rate Assumptions

C.43 In each of the baseline scenarios, the unemployment rate has been incrementally reduced from

the 2014 value of 5.1%, to a pre-recession (2004–2007) average of 4.1% by 2021, fixed thereafter

(Figure 18). This takes account of what is likely to be a gradual recovery in unemployment

following the recession.

Sensitivity Unemployment Rate Assumptions

C.44 In each of the sensitivity scenarios, the unemployment rate has been incrementally reduced from

the 2014 value to a value of 3.5% by 2021, then to a value of 3.0% by 2030 (Figure 18).

Figure 18: Unemployment rate profiles used in POPGROUP (source: ONS)

Cornwall

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14 Pre-Recession

Average

(2004-07)

Unemployment

Rate (%)4.0 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.4 5.7 6.6 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.1 4.1

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Commuting Ratio

C.45 The commuting ratio, together with the unemployment rate, controls the balance between the

number of workers living in a district (i.e. the resident labour force) and the number of jobs

available in the district.

C.46 A commuting ratio greater than 1.00 indicates that the size of the resident workforce exceeds the

number of jobs available in the district, resulting in a net out-commute. A commuting ratio less

than 1.00 indicates that the number of jobs in the district exceeds the size of the labour force,

resulting in a net in-commute.

C.47 From the 2011 Census ‘Travel to Work’ statistics, published by ONS in July 2014, commuting

ratios have been derived for Cornwall. Between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses, the commuting

ratio for Cornwall decreased from 1.04 to 1.06, indicating a slightly reduced net out-commute

(Table 29).

Table 29: Cornwall Census Commuting Ratio Comparison

Baseline Commuting Ratio Assumptions

C.48 In each of the baseline scenarios and in SENS A, the commuting ratio is fixed at the 2011 Census

value of 1.04.

Sensitivity Commuting Ratio Assumptions

C.49 Two alternative commuting ratio profiles have been applied (Figure 18):

SENS B: From 2011, the commuting ratio reduces at the rate seen between the 2001

and 2011 Censuses, reaching a value of 1.02 by 2021. Thereafter, the commuting ratio

is fixed.

Cornwall UA / Isles of Scilly UAE060000

522001 Census 2011 Census

Workers a 213,632 245,838

Jobs b 202,186 237,288

Commuting Ratio a/b 1.06 1.04

Note: 2001 data from Census Table T101 – UK Travel Flows ; 2011 data from Census Table WU02UK - Location of

usual residence and place of work by age .

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SENS C: From 2011, the commuting ratio returns to the 2001 Census value of 1.06 by

2021. Thereafter, the commuting ratio is fixed.

Figure 19: Commuting ratio profiles used in POPGROUP (source: ONS)