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P/E (2018e) 21x ROE 21%
EV/EBIT (2018e) 15x ROIC 15%
EPS growth (2018e) 23% Market cap US$30bn
Net cash to equity 45% Number of holdings 18
Dividend yield 1% Top 10 holdings 77%
Cederberg Greater China Equity Fund Letter 31 May 2018
Performance Chart1
Net Returns in US$ Fund Index Peer group Percentile
Annualised
Since Fund inception 19% 12% 11% 99
5 years 20% 10% 10% 99
3 years 11% 6% 2% 98
2017 75% 44% 36% 99
2016 -7% 5% -5% 44
2015 6% -7% -5% 89
2014 3% 8% 3% 38
2013 42% 7% 10% 99
2012 9% 22% 18% 5
Not annualised
Year-to-date 10% 3% 1% 96
3 months 2% -1% -3% 89
1 month 8% 1% 1% 97
Performance Table1
Top 10 Holdings3
Strategy Long-only equity Auditor Deloitte
Domiciles Cayman, Delaware Custodian Standard Chartered
Fund assets US$388mn Administrator Charter Group
Firm assets US$630mn Cayman counsel Maples & Calder
Minimum US$100,000 US & UK counsel Schulte Roth & Zabel
Dealing Monthly Management fee 1.5%
Benchmark MSCI Golden Dragon
Index
Performance fee 20% of net alpha, with
6% abs. return trigger
Peer group Greater China Equity Phone UK +44 207 871 7228
China +86 13072171983
ISIN KYG2030A1004 Email [email protected]
NAV 305.205 Inception 1 Jan 2012
Median Portfolio Characteristics5
Alibaba Ecommerce
Beijing Tong Ren Tang Traditional Chinese Medicine
JD.com Ecommerce
Kweichow Moutai Distillers
Midea Group Home appliances
Noah Asset management
Tencent Social network
Wuliangye Yibin Distillers
Yihai Condiments
YY Online streaming
Fund Key Features6
Fund Index
Beta 1.08 1
Volatility 21% 16%
Sharpe Ratio 0.93 0.75
Correlation 0.84 1
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see regulatory infor-
mation on page 4. Source: Bloomberg, Charter Group, Cederberg. 31 May 2018
Portfolio Positioning2
Risk Metrics4
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
Cederberg Greater China MSCI Golden Dragon
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Bull months Bear months Average
Upside Capture vs. Downside Protection
MSCI Index
Cederberg
5%
5%
10%
39%
41%
Other Equity
Health Care
Niche Financials
Consumer Brands
Media & Internet
1%
22%
32%
45%
Singapore
A-shares
Hong Kong
United States
2
Cederberg Greater China Equity Fund Letter 31 May 2018
On the road
In May, 15 investors joined the Cederberg team for a tour around
China. In this letter, we provide a summary of our journey.
Day One: Shanghai
We visited some of Shanghai’s prime retail areas to see how
Western and Chinese brands present themselves, and how
offline and online retail are integrating. The highlight was a visit
to Starbuck’s Reserve Roastery, a 30,000 square foot coffee tem-
ple, the only one of its kind outside of Seattle. To see how Chi-
nese people – traditionally tea drinkers – are embracing Star-
bucks makes one want to buy the company’s shares on the spot.
This is happening despite the fact that a tall latte will set you back
$4.50 vs. $3 in the US. The company has 3,300 stores in China
and is planning to open 600 per year for the next several years
(compare this with India, where it has taken five years to open
100 stores). Management believes China could eventually sur-
pass the US to become its biggest market. How has Starbucks
been so successful? By catering to local tastes, by creating an
aspirational luxury brand, and by establishing a culture where
staff and customers are treated like family.
We also visited a JD/Elle fashion pop-up store, and saw how JD is
using facial recognition technology to help fashion brands by ana-
lysing who visits their stores, how they move through the store,
what they are browsing etc. This information can help brands to
improve their displays and their inventory management. We fin-
ished the day with dinner on the Bund, overlooking the famous
Pudong skyline.
Facial recognition at JD’s pop-up store. Source: Cederberg Capital
Day Two: Shanghai
A former marketing manager of Alibaba introduced us to the
concept of “new retail”: omni-channel, data-driven retail centred
on improving the customer experience. China is at the vanguard
of innovation in retail globally: integrating online and offline, lev-
eraging vast data sets to advertise and/or sell, the use of mobile
wallets, to name but a few. Cederberg’s holding Alibaba is lead-
ing the charge - with arguably the most comprehensive data set
of any company globally, it is in an enviable position. Later we
witnessed new retail in action when we visited an Alibaba Hema
store. Hema is part grocery store (it stocks fresh, imported items
based on nearby residents’ online shopping preferences), part
restaurant (chefs will prepare recently purchased goods for con-
sumption in the shop) and part e-tailer (goods ordered online or
offline will be delivered within a 3km radius in 30 minutes or
less). Since Alipay is the only accepted means of payment, even
octogenarians have been forced to use the app!
Fishing for lunch at Hema. Source: Cederberg Capital
Next up was a meeting with private wealth and asset manager
Noah’s finance director and chief talent officer to assess how the
company attracts, trains and retains top talent. Noah’s stringent
risk management and compliance culture means employees can
sleep better at night, knowing they’re selling the right products
to the right people. The industry offers a multi-decade growth
opportunity from a low base, both with respects to domestic as
well as international investments (96% of Chinese high net worth
individuals’ investible assets are domestically held, though this is
rapidly changing). As a best-in-class operator with a strong pri-
vate equity & venture capital business and a broad international
footprint, Noah is well-placed to capture this growth.
Day Three: Zhengzhou
Zhengzhou is a third tier city – comparable to Omaha in the US or
Newcastle in the UK – yet it boasts a population of 10mn people.
Our first visit was to Yutong Bus, the largest manufacturer of mid
- and large-sized buses in the world. Today, 35% of the c. 70,000
buses they sell annually are electrified, though that figure is
steadily rising. The company believes that within a few years,
selling new energy buses will be more profitable than selling tra-
ditional ones, even without any government subsidies.
3
Cederberg Greater China Equity Fund Letter 31 May 2018
That was followed by a visit to condiment brand Yihai’s factory.
Its growth potential remains huge due to the strength of its
brand vs. point-of-sales penetration of 50%, and due to sister
company Haidilao’s growth plans - this year it is adding 200
stores to a base of 300. A visit to one of its Zhengzhou restau-
rants confirmed business is booming.
Day Four: Guangdong Province
Our first meeting was with Midea, the world’s largest manufac-
turer of home and kitchen appliances. One would expect this to
be a tough business, yet Midea is highly profitable due to its
wonderful brand, distribution system and culture, which reminds
one of McKinsey or Goldman Sachs. Automation is evident on the
factory floor, yet there is scope for further productivity gains,
especially in assembly - its recent acquisition of German robotics
business Kuka will no doubt play a role in this.
We also met with the CFO of private school operator Bright
Scholar Education and visited two of their schools. Bright Scholar
is China’s largest operator of international and bilingual private
schools, with 35,000 students across 62 schools. Last year, 90%
of the students from their Guangdong International School were
accepted into the Top 50 universities in the world. No wonder
Chinese parents are willing to pay more than RMB 150,000
(USD23,500) per year to send their kids there. Bright Scholar is
well-placed to acquire sites for new schools due to its relation-
ship with Country Garden, China’s largest property developer,
which has over 1,000 projects across China.
Day Five: Guangdong Province
We met with the CFO of YY, the live broadcasting social network
with 80mn users. YY continues to go from strength to strength,
both its core business as well as Huya, the e-sports broadcasting
business it started several years ago. Interestingly, our visit coin-
cided with Huya’s IPO - it has since gained over 200%!
The group at YY’s Guangzhou HQ. Source: Cederberg Capital
Afterwards, we visited the plant of Foshan Haitian Flavouring Co,
the largest manufacturer of soy sauce in the world. The massive
site is highly automated and boasts stringent hygiene standards.
Foshan Haitian’s excellence isn’t restricted to manufacturing: its
high-quality products sell at a premium and its distribution sys-
tem is one of the best we’ve come across. While its current valu-
ation lacks a margin of safety, we hope we’ll get a chance to own
this fine company one day.
Conclusion
The purpose of the trip was to demystify China for our investors,
to help them assess the investment opportunity set especially as
it pertains to the Chinese consumer, and to familiarise them with
Cederberg’s approach. From Cederberg’s point of view, we
gained immensely valuable insights from 15 fresh pairs of eyes
scrutinising our holdings. Given the trip’s success, we may well
do something similar in 2019 - watch this space!
If you have any questions or comments, we would love to hear
from you.
Warm regards,
4
Regulatory information and risk warning
This document is issued for information only by Cederberg Capital Limited (the “Firm” or “Cederberg”). The Firm is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority (registration number 775092). It does not constitute an offer by the Firm to enter into any contract/agreement nor is it a solicitation to buy or sell any invest-
ment. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The contents of this docu-
ment are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable, however, save to the extent required by applicable law or regulations, no guarantee, warranty or
representation (express or implied) is given as to its accuracy or completeness and, the Firm, its members, officers and employees of the corporate member do not accept
any liability or responsibility in respect of the information or any views expressed herein. All data is sourced from the Firm unless otherwise indicated. This document may
include forward-looking statements that are based upon the managers’ current opinions, expectations and projections. The Firm undertakes no obligation to update or
revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. This document is not aimed at
persons who are residents of any country, including the United States of America (“USA”) and South Africa, where the funds referred to herein are not registered or ap-
proved for marketing and/or sale or in which the dissemination of information on the funds or services is not permitted. This document should not be distributed to any
third party without the express approval of the Firm. It has been designed for a professional audience only and should not be passed onto a retail audience.
Disclosure
1 Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from the US dollar may be subject to exchange rate movements
that alter the value of their investments. MSCI Golden Dragon Total Return Index includes net dividends reinvested. Peer group is Bloomberg universe of equity funds
with Greater China geographical focus. Source: Charter Group Admin, Bloomberg, Cederberg.
2 Category definitions as per Cederberg. Source: Bloomberg, Cederberg
3 Source: Cederberg
4 Upside Capture is calculated by dividing the fund’s average NAV return during months in which the index had a positive return by the average index return during those
months. Downside Capture is calculated by dividing the fund’s average NAV return during months in which the index had a negative return by the average index return
during those months.
5 Median portfolio characteristics are quoted as of 11 June 2018. Source: Bloomberg, Cederberg.
6 As of 12 June 2018. Source: Cederberg.
Investors should note investment involves risk. The price of units may go down as well as up and past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should read
the Fund’s Offering Memorandum for further details and risk factors, in particular those associated with investment in emerging markets. Information in this report has
been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Cederberg Capital does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided by third parties.
Cederberg Capital Limited
26 Throgmorton Street
London EC2N 2AN
Tel. +44 207 871 7228
Cederberg China
Suite 351, 3rd floor, 116 Shimen Road No.1
Shanghai 200041
Tel. +86 130 7217 1983
For more information please contact [email protected]
www.cederbergcap.com
Cederberg Capital Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (registration number 775092)
Cederberg Greater China Equity Fund Letter 31 May 2018