OVERVIEW

THE EUROPEAN VIEW - Britain’s Membership of the EU

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

We are less than two weeks away from the General Election, and the Scottish National Party – a party that, when Parliament dissolved, held just six out of 650 seats in the House of Commons – is continuing to dominate the debate between the Conservatives and Labour.

We have seen the marginal parties – including UKIP and the Greens – continue to steal the headlines and the spotlight remains on speculation about possible coalition partners, not least the threat to the future of the Union should the election result in a Labour Government reliant in some form on the SNP.

We have seen less of an attempt to address the concerns of the business community regarding the UK’s standing in Europe. Neither major party wants to raise the issue – Labour because they recognise that the voters in their target seats are predominantly Eurosceptic; the Conservatives for fear of fighting on UKIP’s territory. They may not want to talk about it, but the issue isn’t going away – and can only increase in importance in the next Parliament as pressure grows on the parties to deliver reform.

Click the link to the right to view the latest Edelman Election wrap-up.

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE months days

Siobhan Hill

Brussels“People shouldn’t stay together if the conditions aren’t the same as when things started. It’s easy to fall in love and more difficult to stay together ... I am against all forms of grovelling.”EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker

Paris“Europe existed before Britain joined it … I hope Britain stays in the EU but I don’t want to decide for the British.”President Francois Hollande

Rome“A Europe without the UK would not simply be a less rich Europe – it would be less Europe, less itself.”Prime Minister Matteo Renzi

Berlin“I very much like having the UK in the EU … where there is a will, there is a way to find common solutions.”Chancellor Angela Merkel

View from Edelman USA and Europe

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE

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Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

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POLLING REPORT

When the facts don’t change, I change my mind. This could be more or less the pollster’s motto for this campaign – expectations that the polls would shift have been continuously unmet.

Of course, no change suits some parties better than others – namely, Labour and the SNP. For both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, time is running out. To make matters worse for them, UKIP’s slide seems to have ended, perhaps explaining the Conservatives’ tactics of focusing on the possibility of a Labour Government with SNP support – which has the most traction with UKIP supporters. Of course, this isn’t to say that things can’t change, only that the governing parties need them to – and quickly.

With all the focus on Scotland, there has been surprisingly little commentary on the contests that will actually determine who

forms the next Government – Conservative-Labour marginals. Realistically, the Conservatives need to keep their losses to Labour to at most two dozen, or they will very likely find it impossible to govern – the magic number for them is about 295 seats. According to polls from Lord Ashcroft, Labour currently lead in 44 Conservative-held seats.

Meanwhile, despite looking on course to lose about half their seats, it looks as though the Liberal Democrats will be essential to any future government, whether Conservative- or Labour-led. These negotiations could, however, be massively complicated by events in Nick Clegg’s constituency of Sheffield Hallam, where he remains under threat.

Role ReversalEd Miliband … sex symbol? A 17-year-old tired of politicians not listening to young people created a meme – #milifandom – which went viral. Photos of Ed as James Bond, David Beckham and Poldark were among 28,000 tweets in the space of 24 hours.

A Major Row First it was Tony Blair, then came another veteran of 1997. Former PM Sir John Major made a speech hammering home the Tories’ message that a Labour-SNP alliance would be a “recipe for mayhem”.

Tortured Metaphors Sky’s Kay Burley did her best to find out whether Boris wants to be the next leader of the Conservative Party. In tortuous exchanges the Mayor tried to evade the question – saying it was more likely he’d be “reincarnated as an olive or blinded by a champagne cork or locked in a disused fridge”.

STURGEON INTERVIEW

BBC LEADERS QUESTION TIME

NAHT CONFERENCE

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will be interviewed by BBC 1’s Evan Davies.27

Prime Minister David Cameron, Labour Party Leader Ed Miliband and Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg will take part in a BBC Question Time programme presented by David Dimbleby.

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Shadow Education Secretary Tristram Hunt is expected to speak at the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) Conference.

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HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN APRIL/MAY

Harry Spencer

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