Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1111E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Benchmarking Internationally The Need Confronts Reality
ECS Forum on National Education PolicyJuly 2, 2008
Andreas SchleicherHead, Indicators and Analysis Division
OECD Directorate for Education
2222E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
In the dark……all institutions and education systems look the same…
But with a little light….
3333E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
But with a little light….
…important differences become apparent….
In the dark……all institutions and education systems look the same…
4444E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Today
11.. There is nowhere to hide How the global talent pool has changed Outlook on the demand and supply of skills
2.2. Where we are – and where we can be Where the US stands in terms of quality
and equity of schooling outcomes What the best performing countries show
can be achieved
3.3. How we can get there Some policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons .
5555P
ISA
OE
CD
Pro
gram
me
for
Inte
rnat
iona
l Stu
dent
Ass
essm
ent
Brie
fing
of C
ounc
il
14 N
ovem
ber
2007
There is nowhere to hideHow the global talent pool has changedOutlook on demand and supply of skills
6666E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
A world of change in baseline qualifications
Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years
%
1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 20043. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.
13
1
1
27
7777E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Gre
ece
Ger
man
y
Fin
land
1
Jap
an
Kor
ea
Nor
way
Irel
and
Cze
ch R
epub
lic4
Swit
zerl
and
Pola
nd
Den
mar
k
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
EU
19 a
vera
ge
Hun
gary
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
OECD
ave
rage
Ital
y
Icel
and
Swed
en
Luxe
mbou
rg
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Spa
in
New
Zea
land
Port
ugal
Tur
key
Mex
ico
1. Year of ref erence 2004.
High school graduation ratesPercentage of graduates to the population at the typical age of
graduation%
8888E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
College-level graduation ratesPercentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation
%
15
2
Decline of the relative position of the US from 1995 to 2005
Note also: rising higher education qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications.
In all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%
10101010E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008Moving targets
Future supply of high school graduates
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
11111111E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Future supply of high school graduates
0
2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
10 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
12 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
14 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
Future supply of college graduates
12121212E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
How the demand for skills has changedEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input
(US)
(Levy and Murnane)
Mean t
ask
inp
ut
as
perc
enti
les
of
th
e 1
960 t
ask
dis
trib
uti
on
15151515E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Coverage of world economy 77%81%83%85%86%87%
OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds
16161616P
ISA
OE
CD
Pro
gram
me
for
Inte
rnat
iona
l Stu
dent
Ass
essm
ent
Brie
fing
of C
ounc
il
14 N
ovem
ber
2007
OECD-PISA framework
National educ, social and economic context
Structures, resource alloc
and policies
Social & economic
outcomes of education
Community and school
characteristics
Student learning, teacher working
conditions
Socio-economic background of
learners
Antecedentscontextualise or
constrain ed policy
The learning environment at
school
Teaching, learning
practices and classroom
climate
Individ attitudes, engagement and
behaviour
Output and performance of
institutions
Quality of instructional
delivery
Quality and distribution of knowledge &
skills
Policy Leversshape educational
outcomes
Outputs and Outcomes
impact of learning
Individual learner
LevelA
Instructional settings
LevelB
Schools, other institutions
LevelC
Country or system
LevelD
Domain 3Domain 2Domain 1
18181818E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008 Emilia Romagna
VenetoFriuli Venezia Giulia
Autonoma of Bolzano
Trento
Lombardia
Liguria
Piemonte
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
Italy
Basque Country
Galicia
Catalonia
Andalusia
Asturias
Aragon
Castile and Leon
La Rioja
Navarre
Cantabria
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
Spain
Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
High science performance
Low science performance
… 18 countries perform below this line
I srael
I talyPortugal Greece
Russian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,Iceland Latvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao- ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
Slovenia
NetherlandsLiechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonia
United States LithuaniaNorway
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
19191919E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of
learning opportunities
High science performance
Low science performance
I srael
I talyPortugal Greece
Russian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,Iceland Latvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao- ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
Slovenia
NetherlandsLiechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonia
United States LithuaniaNorway
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
20202020E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of
learning opportunities
High science performance
Low science performance
I srael
GreecePortugal I talyRussian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic SpainIcelandLatvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic Switzerland Macao- China
Germany United Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
SloveniaNetherlands
Liechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonai
United StatesLithuania Norway
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
21222
23232323E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Large proportion of top performers
Top and bottom performers in science
Large prop. of poor perf.
These students often confuse key features of a scientific investigation, apply incorrect information, mix personal beliefs with facts in support of a position…
These students can consistently identify, explain and apply scientific knowledge, link different information sources and explanations and use evidence from these to justify decisions, demonstrate advanced scientific thinking in unfamiliar situations…
24242424E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19 associated with reading proficiency at
age 15 (Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother
tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group Level 1)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
25252525P
ISA
OE
CD
Pro
gram
me
for
Inte
rnat
iona
l Stu
dent
Ass
essm
ent
Brie
fing
of C
ounc
il
14 N
ovem
ber
2007
How to get thereSome policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons
26262626E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Some myths US coverage of the sampled population
is more comprehensive than in other countries
US covered 96% of 15-year-olds enrolled (OECD 97%) US covered 86% of all 15-year-olds (OECD 89%) No impact on mean performance
No relationship between size of countries and average performance
No relationship between proportion of immigrants and average performance
Few difference in students’ reported test motivation
Limited impact of national item preferences .
27272727E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Money matters - but other things do too
30303030E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
High ambitions and universal
standards
Access to best practice and quality professional development
31313131E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
High ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability and intervention in
inverse proportion to success
Devolved responsibility,
the school as the centre of action
32323232E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
PISA score in science
School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance
School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire
33333333E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Public and private schools
0 20 40 60 80 100
Luxembourg
J apan
I taly
Switzerland
Finland
Denmark
Czech Republic
Sweden
Hungary
Austria
Portugal
United States
Netherlands
Slovak Republic
Korea
I reland
Spain
Canada
Mexico
New Zealand
Germany
OECD
United Kingdom
Government schools
Government dependent private
Government independent private
- 150 - 100 - 50 0 50 100
Observed perf ormance diff erence
Diff erence af ter accounting f or socio-economic background of students and schools
Private schools perform better
Public schools perform better
%Score point difference
34343434E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/system factors on science performance after
accounting for all other factors in the model
OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a
Schools practicing ability grouping (gross
and net)
Academically selective schools (gross and net)
but no system-wide effect
School results posted publicly (gross and net)
One additional hour of science learning at
school (gross and net)
One additional hour of out-of-school lessons
(gross and net)
One additional hour of self-study or homework
(gross and net)
School activities to promote science
learning(gross and net)
Schools with greater autonomy (resources)
(gross and net)
Each additional 10% of public funding(gross only)
Schools with more competing schools
(gross only)
School principal’s perception that lack of
qualified teachers hinders instruction
(gross only)
School principal’s positive evaluation of quality of educational
materials(gross only)
Measured effect
Effect after accounting for the socio-economic
background of students, schools and countries
64% of US students in schools that compete with more than 2 schools in same area, 11% with one school, 26% with no school
91% of US students in schools posting achievement data publicly (OECD 38%)26% of US students in schools with no vacant science teaching positions (OECD 38%), 71% where all vacant positions had been filled (OECD 59%), BUT 20% where principals report that instruction is hindered by a lack of qualified science teachers
35353535E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Strong ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability
Devolvedresponsibility,
the school as the centre of action
Integrated educational
opportunities
From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning
37373737E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400D
enm
ark
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Fra
nce
Fin
land
Sw
eden
Can
ada
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Bel
gium
Aus
tria
Ger
man
y
Port
ugal
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Net
herl
ands
Hun
gary
Spa
in
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
Irel
and
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Luxe
mbou
rg
Pola
nd
Gre
ece
Ital
y
All levels of educationLower secondary educationUpper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary educationTertiary education
A second chance?Expected hours in non-formal job-related training
(2003)This chart shows the expected number of hours in non-formal job-related education and training, over a forty year period, for 25-to-64 year olds.
%
C5.1a
38383838E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Some paradigm shifts
Prescription Informed profession
Uniformity Embracing diversity
Demarcation Collaboration
Provision Outcomes
Bureaucratic – look up Devolved – look outwards
Talk equity Deliver equity
Hit & miss Universal high standards
Received wisdom Data and best practice
The old bureaucratic education system The modern enabling education system
39393939E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Why care? Progress
Concerns about skill barriers to economic growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation
– One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP
– Rising college-level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%)
Fairness Concerns about the role of skills in creating
social inequity in economic outcomes– Both average and distribution of skill matter
to long-term growth Value for money
Concerns about the demand for, and efficiency and effectiveness of, investments in public goods
40404040E
CS
For
um o
n N
atio
nal E
duca
tion
Pol
icy
Aus
tin,
2 Ju
ly 2
008
Thank you !Thank you !
www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org– All national and international publications– The complete micro-level database
email: [email protected]
…and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
