Economist Articles

8/19/2019 Economist Articles

1/21

Capitalism and its critics

A modern Marx

Thomas Piketty’s blockbuster book is a

great piece of scholarship, but a poor

guide to policy

May 3rd 2014 | From the print edition

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WHEN the first volume of Karl Mar!s "#as Kapital$ %as pu&lished in 1'()* it too+five years to sell 1*000 ,opies in its ori-inal .erman/ t %as not translated intoEn-lish for t%o de,ades* and this ne%spaper did not see fit to mention it until 10)/y ,omparison* homas i+etty!s "5apital in the %enty6First 5entury$ is anoverni-ht sensation/ 7ri-inally pu&lished in Fren,h 8%hen %e first revie%ed it9* Mri+etty!s vast tome on in,ome6and6%ealth distri&ution has &e,ome a &estseller sin,ethe En-lish translation appeared in Mar,h/ n :meri,a it is the top6sellin- &oo+ on:ma;on* fi,tion in,luded/

he &oo+!s su,,ess has a lot to do %ith &ein- a&out the ri-ht su&


2/21

:meri,ans* stun- &y the e,esses of Wall >treet* are suddenly tal+in- a&out the ri,hand redistri&ution/ Hen,e the attra,tion of a &oo+ %hi,h ar-ues that -ro%in- %ealth,on,entration is inherent to ,apitalism and re,ommends a -lo&al ta on %ealth as the

pro-ressive solution/

n this se,tion

• What %ould :meri,a fi-ht for?

• 5hina!s 5arne-ie

• 5heap is ,heerful

• : modern Mar

• ime to dit,h Mandela!s party

@eprints@elated topi,s

• Anited >tates

• homas i+etty

"5apital$ has duly enraptured the left* infuriated the ri-ht and spi,ed up the dismal

s,ien,e in the popular mind 8see arti,le9/ ut if Mr i+etty does set the tone of de&ateon ine=uality* the %orld %ill &e the poorer for it/ For li+e its 1th6,entury namesa+e*"5apital$ ,ontains some marvellous s,holarship* &ut as a -uide to a,tion* is deeplyfla%ed/

"5apital$ ma+es three &i- ,ontri&utions in its B)) pa-es/ First* Mr i+etty* a pioneerin usin- ta statisti,s to measure ine=uality* painsta+in-ly do,uments the evolution ofin,ome and %ealth over the past 300 years* parti,ularly in Europe and :meri,a/ ndoin- so* he sho%s that the period from a&out 114 to the 1)0s %as an histori,aloutlier in %hi,h &oth in,ome ine=uality and the sto,+ of %ealth 8relative to annualnational in,ome9 fell dramati,ally/ >in,e the 1)0s &oth %ealth and in,ome -aps have

&een risin- &a,+ to%ards their pre620th6,entury norms/ here are surely a fe% snafusin these statisti,s* &ut this %or+ has transformed understandin- of the history of%ealth* %ith eye6poppin- results/ Who +ne%* for instan,e* that the annual value ofinheritan,es in Fran,e has tripled from less than BC of .# in the 1B0s to a&out1BC* not all that far from the 1th6,entury pea+ of 2BC? :s a pie,e of empiri,alsleuthin-* the &oo+ is indisputa&ly &rilliant/

Mr i+etty!s se,ond ,ontri&ution is to ,ome up %ith a theory of ,apitalism thateplains these fa,ts and offers a predi,tion of %here %ealth distri&ution is headin-/His ,entral ,laim is that the free6mar+et system has a natural tenden,y to%ardsin,reasin- the ,on,entration of %ealth* &e,ause the rate of return on property and

investments has ,onsistently &een hi-her than the rate of e,onomi, -ro%th/ %o%orld %ars* the #epression and hi-h taes pushed do%n the return on %ealth in the

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601508-nagging-doubt-eating-away-world-orderand-superpower-largely-ignoring-it-whathttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601510-jack-mas-establishment-new-charitable-foundation-offers-his-country-importanthttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601511-business-managing-other-peoples-money-being-commoditised-about-time-cheap-cheerfulhttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601513-ruling-african-national-congress-sure-triumph-again-it-no-longer-deserves-timehttp://www.economist.com/rightshttp://www.economist.com/topics/united-stateshttp://www.economist.com/topics/thomas-pikettyhttp://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21601567-wonky-book-inequality-becomes-blockbuster-bigger-marxhttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601508-nagging-doubt-eating-away-world-orderand-superpower-largely-ignoring-it-whathttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601510-jack-mas-establishment-new-charitable-foundation-offers-his-country-importanthttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601511-business-managing-other-peoples-money-being-commoditised-about-time-cheap-cheerfulhttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601513-ruling-african-national-congress-sure-triumph-again-it-no-longer-deserves-timehttp://www.economist.com/rightshttp://www.economist.com/topics/united-stateshttp://www.economist.com/topics/thomas-pikettyhttp://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21601567-wonky-book-inequality-becomes-blockbuster-bigger-marx


3/21

20th ,entury* %hile rapid produ,tivity and population rises pushed up -ro%th/ ut%ithout su,h ,ountervailin- fa,tors* Mr i+etty ar-ues* hi-her returns on ,apital %ill,on,entrate %ealthDespe,ially %hen* as no%* an a-ein- population means that-ro%th should slo%/

Mr i+etty!s epe,tation of risin- %ealth ,on,entration is not outlandish/ Ho%ever* itis a predi,tion &ased on etrapolatin- from the past* not an inherent model of,apitalism/ He assumes that the returns to ,apital %ill not fall su&stantially even as thesto,+ of %ealth rises/ hat may prove to &e true* &ut the i+etty predi,tion is ahypothesis* not an iron la%/

Nit6i+etty

hat is %here the pro&lems start* &e,ause Mr i+etty!s third ,ontri&ution is to offer poli,y proposals that assume this -ro%in- ,on,entration of %ealth is not onlyinevita&le* &ut the thin- that matters most/ He pres,ri&es a pro-ressive -lo&al ta on

,apital 8an annual levy that ,ould start at 0/1C and hits a maimum of perhaps 10Con the -reatest fortunes9/ He also su--ests a punitive '0C ta rate on in,omes a&oveB00*000 or so/

Here "5apital$ drifts to the left and loses ,redi&ility/ Mr i+etty asserts rather thaneplains %hy temperin- %ealth ,on,entration should &e the priority 8as opposed to*say* &oostin- -ro%th9/ He &arely a,+no%led-es any trade6offs or ,osts to hisredistri&utionist a-enda/ Most e,onomists* ,ommon sense and a lot of Fren,h

&usinesspeople %ould ar-ue that hi-her taes on in,ome and %ealth put offentrepreneurs and ris+ ta+in- he &lithely dismisses that/ :nd his to6do list is oddly

&lin+ered in its fo,us on tain- the ri,h/ He i-nores %ays to &roaden the o%nership of,apital* from "&a&y &onds$ to -overnment top6ups of private savin- a,,ounts/ >ome,apital taes ,ould sit ni,ely in a sensi&le 21st6,entury poli,y tool+it 8inheritan,etaes* in parti,ular9* &ut they are not the only* or even the main* %ay to ensure &road6

&ased prosperity/

Mr i+etty!s fo,us on soa+in- the ri,h sma,+s of so,ialist ideolo-y* not s,holarship/hat may eplain %hy "5apital$ is a &estseller/ ut it is a poor &lueprint for a,tion/

Privatisation


4/21

Is it time for governments to launch a new wave of privatisations?

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7es

Bernar,o Bortolotti

Professor of Economics8 9niversit of Turin: Director8 Sovereign

Investment 1a&8 Bocconi 9niversit

: lar-e6s,ale privatisation pro-ramme alleviates pu&li, finan,es &e,ause ,ash

revenues ,an &e used to redeem pu&li, de&t* and savin-s in interest payments

may -ive lee%ay to epansionary fis,al poli,y/

No

Elliott Sclar

9r&an Planning Professor an, Director8 (entre for Sustaina&le 9r&an

Development8 (olum&ia 9niversit

http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1068http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1068http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1076http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1076http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1065http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1065http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1063http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1063http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1068http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1076http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1065http://www.economist.com/debate/http://www.economist.com/debate/upcominghttp://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1068http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1068http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1076http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1076http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1065http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1065http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/overview/267http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1062http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1063http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1063http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1068http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1076http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1064http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/1065http://www.economist.com/debate/http://www.economist.com/debate/upcoming


5/21

he motivational misali-nment &et%een lon-6term pu&li, needs and shorter6

term private needs for investment return is at the ,ore of all the instan,es of

failure in pu&li,6asset sales and leases/

S3ip to444

• ;o,erator

• Pro

• (on

The mo,erator


6/21

With su,h -ems in the ,loset* and those holdin- them fis,ally trou&led* the ar-uments

for sti,+in- more on the &lo,+ mi-ht seem strai-htfor%ard/ ut privatisation offers

only &rief respite for a -overnment that is addi,ted to overspendin-/ :nd thou-h some

sales have &een ,lear su,,esses 8%ho %ould ar-ue that Europes tele,oms ,ompanies

%ould &e &etter off if still in state hands?9* others have produ,ed =uestiona&le valueand a fe% have &een unmiti-ated disasters/ f privatisation is poorly desi-nedD

parti,ularly if an appropriate re-ulatory frame%or+ isnt first put in pla,eD

undeserved spoils are li+ely to -o to a small -roup of insiders* spar+in- a &a,+lash/

Witness past turmoil in Iatin :meri,a/

We are deli-hted to have t%o distin-uished eperts to de&ate the issue/ :r-uin- the

,ase for another &urst of divestment is ernardo ortolotti* asso,iate professor in

e,onomi,s at the Aniversity of urin* dire,tor of the >overei-n nvestment Ia& at

o,,oni Aniversity in Milan and founder of the rivati;ation arometer/ Mr

ortolotti sees a virtuous ,ir,le in properly stru,tured salesJ the payin-6do%n ofe,essive de&ts* risin- ,redit ratin-s and -reater ,ompetition/ Moreover* mar+et

,onditions are ri-ht* %ith -lo&al sto,+mar+ets near histori,al hi-hs and investors

appetite for e=uity* relative to other asset ,lasses* li+ely to remain stron-/

Elliott >,lar* professor of ur&an plannin- at 5olum&ia Aniversity and author of Gou

#ont :l%ays .et What ou ay ForJ he E,onomi,s of rivati;ationG* %ei-hs the

short6term finan,ial -ains of sellin- a-ainst the possi&le so,ial ,osts* and finds them

lar-ely %antin-/ 7ne reason* he ar-ues* is a misali-nment of time6hori;ons and

in,entives &et%een seller and &uyer/ Asin- the eample of 5hi,a-os par+in- assets*he su--ests that privatisin- mana-ement %hile retainin- o%nershipDan in,reasin-ly

,ommon approa,hDis not the ans%er/

>ome =uestions that d li+e to see addressed in,ludeJ What types of Gstrate-i,G or

Gherita-eG assets should &e off6limits in any ,ir,umstan,e? What do eamples of

su,,essful state ,apitalism* nota&ly in >,andinavia* tell us a&out the merits and

demerits of privatisation* or a&out ho% to improve the mana-ement of stuff that

remains in pu&li, hands? When does it ma+e sense to lease* se,uritise or form pu&li,6

private partnerships rather than sell outri-ht? :nd* in the li-ht of their poor a,,ountin-

and data ,olle,tion* %hat ,an -overnments do to develop a &etter understandin- of%hat they hold?

7ver the net ten days our panellists %ill present their most persuasive ar-uments* &ut

the result of our de&ate rests in your hands/ #o not &e afraid to vote immediatelyD

you ,an al%ays ,han-e your mind/ Even &etter* on,e you have ,ast your vote* add

your voi,e to the de&ate and eplain your de,ision/ loo+ for%ard to readin- the

,omments of all those %ho parti,ipate/

S3ip to444


7/21

• ;o,erator

• Pro

• (on

The proposertars are reali-nin- 8a-ain9 for the start of a ne% &i- privatisation %ave/ he +ey

fa,tors eplainin- state sell6offs are %ell6+no%nJ deterioratin- pu&li, finan,es

finan,ial mar+et ,onditions and a lar-e portfolio of state6o%ned assets/ Ander present

,ir,umstan,es* -overnments of all stripes may de,ide to put on the mar+et lar-e

,hun+s of the national e,onomy any time soon/

he finan,ial ,risis* %ith its lethal mi of ,redit ,run,h* de,reased ta revenues* hu-e

e,onomi, stimulus pro-rammes and &an+ &ail6outs* led to a dramati, in,rease in

pu&li, de&t for most advan,ed e,onomies/ u&li, de&t as a per,enta-e of .# in

7E5# ,ountries* hoverin- around )0C durin- the 10s* rose to 113C in 2013* and it

is pro


8/21

appetite for e=uity of -lo&al investors/ he re,ent hi-hly oversu&s,ri&ed 7 of

ritains @oyal Mail represents an interestin- forerunner of this trend/

he &oundaries of state o%nership have moved ,onsidera&ly in the past fe% de,ades*

%ith the lar-e privatisation %aves of the late 100s follo%ed &y the more re,ent

-overnment &ail6outs in advan,ed* ,risis6hit e,onomies* and soverei-n %ealth fund

investments in emer-in- ,ountries/ :t any rate* residual state o%nership in listed and

non6listed firms* real estate and infrastru,ture is valued at around trillion/

>o -overnments have property left to sell and an interestin- %indo% of opportunity to

sei;e/ Ho%ever* they should remem&er the hard lessons learnt from past

privatisations/

First* divestin- -overnments should al%ays apply the &asi, finan,ial rule for

privatisationJ privatise only if the sale improves the net %orth of the state/ : state6o%ned asset should &e sold only if its epe,ted return in private hands e,eeds the

interest rates on pu&li, de&t/ he ,orollary of the rule is that -overnments should

au,tion the assets in ,ompetitive tenders to -et the &est pri,e in the mar+et/ .ivea%ay

privatisation* sales to insiders li+e those implemented in some transition e,onomies

8nota&ly in @ussia9* or stron-ly underpri,ed offerin-s in pu&li, mar+ets violate the

rule and should &e avoided/

.ettin- hi-h pri,es is an important o&


9/21

• Pro

• (on

The opposition


10/21

: ma


11/21

he ,ore pro&lem remains one of mission misali-nment &et%een the parties/ e,ause

this differen,e is so fundamental* the ,ontra,tual terms &e,ome ,riti,al/ :ll pu&li,6

asset lease and sale ,ontra,ts must do three thin-sJ epli,itly prote,t pu&li, options in

the fa,e of ,han-in- ,onditions spe,ify ea,tly ho% transparen,y %ill &e maintained

and ma+e epli,it provision for on-oin- oversi-ht and a,,ounta&ility/ hese provisions %ill* of ,ourse* diminish the attra,tiveness of su,h sales and leases to the

private se,tor and raise pu&li,6se,tor ,ontra,t enfor,ement ,osts/ his lesson %as

re,ently driven home %hen 5hi,a-o* stun- &y its misadventure in par+in-6meter

sales* sou-ht to impose more ,ontra,t a,,ounta&ility in the sale of its muni,ipal

airport/ 7n,e the ne% terms of en-a-ement &e,ame +no%n* the num&er of interested

&idders rapidly fell from 1( to one/ With no ,ompetition there %as no sale/ :nd that is

the point/ More upfront revenue means hi-her future so,ial ,osts/ No free lun,hes

here/

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12/21

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• 1atest -ree e>change

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0or3ing hours

2et a life

Sep )#th )5/'8 /)/@ & (404 an, A444D4 = 1!ND!N

•

•

•

E@@:N# @A>>EII* the En-lish philosopher* %as not a fan of %or+/ n his 132

essay* "n raise of dleness$* he re,+oned that if so,iety %ere &etter mana-ed the

avera-e person %ould only need to %or+ four hours a day/ >u,h a small %or+in- day

%ould "entitle a man to the ne,essities and elementary ,omforts of life/$ he rest of

the day ,ould &e devoted to the pursuit of s,ien,e* paintin- and %ritin-/

@ussell thou-ht that te,hnolo-i,al advan,ement ,ould free people from toil/ Lohn

Maynard Keynes mooted a similar idea in a 130 essay* GE,onomi, possi&ilities for

our -rand,hildrenG* in %hi,h he re,+oned people mi-ht need %or+ no more than 1B

hours per %ee+ &y 2030/ ut over '0 years after these spe,ulations people seem to &e

%or+in- harder than ever/ he Financial Times reports today that Wor+aholi,s

:nonymous -roups are ta+in- off/ 7ver the summer an+ of :meri,a fa,ed intense

,riti,ism after a >ta+hanovite intern died/

ut data from the 7E5#* a ,lu& of ri,h ,ountries* tell a more positive story/ For the

,ountries for %hi,h data are availa&le the vast ma


13/21

:nd it seems that more produ,tiveDand* ,onse=uently* &etter6paidD%or+ers put in

less time at the offi,e/ he -raph &elo% sho%s the relationship &et%een produ,tivity

8.# per hour %or+ed9 and annual %or+in- hoursJ

he .ree+s are some of the most hard%or+in- in the 7E5#* puttin- in over 2*000

hours a year on avera-e/ .ermans* on the other hand* are ,omparative sla,+ers*

%or+in- a&out 1*400 hours ea,h year/ ut .erman produ,tivity is a&out )0C hi-her/

7ne important =uestion ,on,erns %hether appetite for %or+ a,tually diminishes as

people earn more/ here are ,ountervailin- effe,ts/ 7n the one hand* a hi-her %a-e

raises the opportunity ,ost of leisure time and should lead people to %or+ more/ 7n


14/21

the other hand* a hi-her in,ome should lead a %or+er to ,onsume more of the stuff he

or she enome resear,h sho%s that hi-her pay does not* on net* lead %or+ers to do more/

@ather* they may %or+ less/ : famous study &y 5olin 5amerer and ,ollea-ues* %hi,h

loo+ed at tai drivers* rea,hed a ,ontroversial ,on,lusion/ he authors su--ested that

tai drivers had a daily in,ome Gtar-etG* and thatJ

When %a-es are hi-h* drivers %ill rea,h their tar-et more =ui,+ly and =uit early on

lo%6%a-e days they %ill drive lon-er hours to rea,h the tar-et/

:lternatively* the -raph a&ove mi-ht su--est that people %ho %or+ fe%er hours are

more produ,tive/ his idea is not ne%/ :dam >mith re,+oned that

he man %ho %or+s so moderately as to &e a&le to %or+ ,onstantly* not only preserves his health the lon-est* &ut in the ,ourse of the year* ee,utes the -reatest

=uantity of %or+s/

here are a&errations* of ,ourse/ :meri,ans are relatively produ,tive and %or+

relatively lon- hours/ :nd %ithin the :meri,an la&our for,e hours %or+ed amon- the

ri,h have risen %hile those of the poor have fallen/ ut a paper released yesterday &y

the Ne% Oealand rodu,tivity 5ommission sho%ed that even if you %or+ more hours*

you do not ne,essarily %or+ &etter/ he paper made envious ,omparisons &et%een

Ki%is and :ustraliansDthe latter -roup has more effi,ient %or+ers/

>o may&e %e should &e more self6,riti,al a&out ho% mu,h %e %or+/ Wor+in- less

may ma+e us more produ,tive/ :nd* as @ussell ar-ued* %or+in- less %ill -uarantee

"happiness and


15/21

7es

1arr Diamon,

Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution an, the -reeman Spogli

Institute for International Stu,ies

#emo,ra,y -lo&ally has fa,ed a lot of ,hallen-es and set&a,+s in re,ent years/

et none of this has ,umulated into an authoritarian Greverse %aveG/ here are

many instan,es of demo,rati, pro-ress or rene%al/

No

(hristian (arl

Senior fellow8 1egatum Institute an, a contri&uting e,itor8 -oreign

Polic magaCine

eople %ant freedom* to &e sure* &ut they also yearn for e,onomi, -ro%th*so,ial


16/21

his de&ate is a timely one/ For 2014 is a &i- year for demo,ra,yDor* at least* for

votin-/ ndeed* it may &e the &i--est everJ rou-hly 42C of the %orlds population live

in ,ountries that %ill hold nation%ide votes of some sort this year/ hese in,lude some

of the lar-est mature demo,ra,ies of the ri,h %orld 8the Anited >tates %ill hold mid6

term ele,tions* and 2' EA ,ountries %ill hold ele,tions for the European arliament9as %ell as some of the lar-est emer-in- mar+ets 8nota&ly ra;il* ndonesia and the

most populous demo,ra,y of the lot* ndia9/ : -lan,e at the ele,toral timeta&le for

2014 sho%s u,h a fren;y of votin- mi-ht su--est that demo,ra,y is in rude health/ f only it %ere

that simple/ #emo,ra,y is a&out more than


17/21

out%ei-hed &y en,oura-ement at the s,ale of the rea,tion a-ainst it in some

,ountries?

>u,h =uestions should ma+e for a fas,inatin- de&ate* and hope that readers around

the %orld %ill %ei-h in %ith ,omments/

S3ip to444

• ;o,erator

• Pro

• (on

The proposer


18/21

shrin+in- spa,e for ,ivil so,iety and the media* and in,reasin- pro&lems of human

ri-hts and punishment of opposition/

%o &i-* dynami, middle6in,ome ,ountries %here demo,ra,y %as epe,ted to

,onsolidate* hailand and ur+ey* are no% ea,h in severe politi,al ,risis as a result of

politi,al polarisation and intoleran,e/ n hailand* the mu,h6theorised a-ent of

demo,rati, defen,e and reform* the ur&an middle ,lass is demandin- a +ind of Gtime

outG from demo,ra,y &e,ause its party has lost the last fe% ele,tions/ n ur+ey*

@e,ep ayyip Erdo-an has veered to%ards an in,reasin-ly authoritarian style as he

see+s to maintain his and his partys hold on po%er/

hen of ,ourse there is the sorry performan,e of demo,ra,ies in Europe* Lapan and

the Anited >tates* %here ele,tions of late have not produ,ed -overnments and

parliaments ,apa&le of formulatin- via&le poli,ies to address the &i- e,onomi, and

so,ial ,hallen-es/

hose %ho in,line to%ards optimism a&out the future of demo,ra,yDand am oneD

+no% that demo,ra,y -lo&ally has &een fa,in- a lot of ,hallen-es and set&a,+s in

re,ent years/ et none of this has ,umulated into an authoritarian Greverse %aveG/

here are many instan,es of demo,rati, pro-ress or rene%al* not least in unisia*

%here ,onstitutional ,ompromise has no% positioned the ,ountry to emer-e as the

first -enuine demo,ra,y in the :ra& %orld* a potentially transformative development

for the re-ion/ :nd authoritarian re-imes fa,e their o%n hu-e pro&lems of

performan,e* le-itima,y and sta&ility* %hi,h hope to dis,uss as this de&ate pro,eeds/

n ndia 8%hen,e %rite9* a politi,al reform party* the :am :admi 8or G5ommon

ManG9 arty* has s%ept to lo,al po%er in the ,apital* #elhi* and is no% &urstin- onto

the national s,ene as a si-nifi,ant fa,tor in the parliamentary ele,tions this :pril/

:lthou-h not yet in a position to ,hallen-e the t%o leadin- parties for po%er* it has

for,ed them 8and others9 to reorient their ,ampai-n rhetori, and ,andidate sele,tion

pra,ti,es to ta+e a,,ount of the -ro%in- popular dis-ust %ith ,orruption and misrule/

>imilar in some respe,ts to the ro-ressive Movement of a ,entury a-o in :meri,a*

:am :admi and the Lan Io+pal anti6,orruption mass movement that arose in 2011 are

reaffirmin- the ,ore promise of demo,ra,yJ that ordinary ,iti;ens ,an mo&ilise fromthe -rassroots to ena,t institutional reforms* improve -overnan,e and advan,e so,ial


19/21

politi,al reform in ndonesia* no% stalled* may resume after the presidential ele,tion

in Lune/ :nd as in ndiaDand most of the other emer-in-6mar+et ,ountries of the

.20* su,h as Mei,o* ra;il* >outh :fri,a and >outh KoreaDthere is su&stantial

pu&li, ,ommitment to demo,ra,y and elite ,onsensus on the ,onstitutional rules of the

-ame/ :mon- the do;ens of ne% demo,ra,ies that have emer-ed over the past threede,ades* there are other ,lear su,,ess stories of ,onstitutional sta&ility and reasona&ly

effe,tive performan,e* in,ludin- 5hile* Aru-uay* ai%an* .hana and most of the

,entral and east European ,ountries that entered the EA after the end of the ,old %ar/

he sta&le* mature demo,ra,ies of the %orld are no% mu,h more numerousDand

mu,h more ,ons,ious of their ,ommon interest in sustainin- demo,ra,ies -lo&ally

and improvin- the =uality of -overnan,eDthan %as the ,ase a -eneration a-o/ ndeed

they are or-anised into -roupin-s* su,h as the 5ommunity of #emo,ra,ies and the

7pen .overnment artnership* that are see+in- to advan,e these -oals/ :nd for all the

politi,al and fis,al trou&les of :meri,a* Europe and Lapan* fe% people in thedevelopin- %orld loo+ to 5hina as a political model/ ndeed* the politi,al momentum

in >outh6East :siaDeven in the su,,essful auto,ra,ies of >in-apore and Malaysia*

not to mention failed ones li+e MyanmarDis to%ards demo,ra,y/ Myanmar is in the

midst of one of the most ,omple and si-nifi,ant re-ime transitions of the past t%o

de,ades/ he military %ill pro&a&ly &lo,+ the s,ope of ,onstitutional ,han-e

ne,essary for a demo,ra,y to emer-e out of the 201B ele,tions* &ut the net

-overnment %ill &e su&stantially more demo,rati, than any Myanmar has had in half

a ,entury* and the popular hun-er for free and a,,ounta&le -overnment is palpa&le

there* as it is in 5am&odia/

5on,ern a&out the health of demo,ra,y is ne,essary to reform and improve it/ :pathy

permits the de,ay of demo,ra,y and ,ould eventually &rin- its demise/ ut the fear

that demo,ra,y may no% &e in -lo&al retreat is not simply over&lo%n* it is %ron-/

S3ip to444

• ;o,erator

•

Pro

• (on

The opposition


20/21

an )/st )5/# = (hristian (arl

#emo,ra,y has en


21/21

5onsider ur+ey/ t %as not that lon- a-o that the ,ountry %as &ein- held up as an

eample of a flourishin- Muslim demo,ra,y/ et no% the prime minister* @e,ep

ayyip Erdo-an* is respondin- to last years protest movement and an unfoldin-

,orruption ,risis %ith a full6s,ale assault on the press* the outh6East :sia/

8Witness the se,tarian ,onfli,t &et%een uddhists and Muslims in Myanmar that

threatens to undermine that ,ountrys demo,rati, transition/9 History has sho%n usthat the rise of the middle ,lass is often a pre,ondition for a sur-e in nationalism/ es*

nationalism ,an sometimes &e an ally of demo,ra,y/ et more often it ,an serve as an

e,use for overridin- li&eral values of toleran,e and open dis,ussion/

:uto,rats li+e Ri Linpin- and Pladimir utin understand this &est of all/ Havin-

,arefully studied the ,ollapse of one6party states around the %orld* the 5hinese

5ommunist arty has ,hosen old6fashioned patriotism as the ,entrepie,e of its

strate-y to rally popular support/ n @ussia* %here the 2011 protest movement has

e&&ed a%ay* mem&ers of the demo,rati, opposition are easily type,ast as la,+eys of

the nefarious West* slyly attemptin- to import alien values inimi,al to @ussiastreasured traditions/

#emo,rats underestimate the tyrants at their perilJ modern di,tators have proven far

more sophisti,ated and adapta&le than their opponents %ant to admit/ he defenders

of a free so,iety need to +eep this in mind in the years ahead/ 5ompla,en,y is not an

option/

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