Economics Impact Report - Croxley Rail Link rail link economic imp… · Economic Impacts i Executive Summary 1. Croxley Rail Link is a priority infrastructure scheme developed to

Economics Impact

Report September 2011

Croxley Rail Link

Economic Impacts

Report

August 2011

Prepared for: Prepared by:

Hertfordshire County Council

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Steer Davies Gleave

28-32 Upper Ground

London SE1 9PD

+44 (0)20 7910 5000

www.steerdaviesgleave.com

Economic Impacts

Contents

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................... I

1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 1

Introduction...........................................................................................1

Structure of the document .........................................................................1

2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ............................................................................. 2

Overview of Hertfordshire and Watford Economy..............................................2

Key Economic Challenges...........................................................................3

Meeting the Challenge - Economic Priorities....................................................4

3 THE ROLE OF TRANSPORT IN DELIVERING GROWTH........................................ 9

Conceptual Linkages.................................................................................9

Evidence from the Transport in the East of England (TEES) Study ..........................9

Economic Policy – Recognising the Role of Transport ....................................... 13

4 CROXLEY RAIL LINK – ECONOMIC IMPACTS...................................................14

Connectivity Benefits of Croxley Rail Link .................................................... 14

Watford Hub - Better Strategic Connections.................................................. 14

Enhanced Local Accessibility..................................................................... 16

Expanding Effective Labour Markets & Encouraging Sustainable Commuting ........... 16

Reducing Congestion .............................................................................. 17

Connections to London and Heathrow ......................................................... 18

Strategic Employment Sites & Housing Delivery.............................................. 19

Supporting Watford Town Centre ............................................................... 20

Quantifying the Economic Benefits ............................................................. 20

Location of businesses and developers interviewed ......................................... 21

5 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................23

FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Watford Overview Map showing Special Policy Areas ..................8

Figure 3.1 Total productivity costs of congestion per annum (2021)........... 11

Figure 3.2 ‘Engines of Growth’ in the East of England............................ 12

Figure 4.1 Improved connectivity with CRL......................................... 15

Figure 4.2 Locations of Businesses/ Developers Interviewed .................... 22

Economic Impacts

Contents

APPENDICES

A INTERVIEW WRITE-UPS

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i

Executive Summary

1. Croxley Rail Link is a priority infrastructure scheme developed to support the

sustainable economic growth of Hertfordshire, a major contributor to UK economic

prosperity. Tackling lack of access and congestion is the top priority of Hertfordshire

businesses because it is seen by business as having the potential to undermine the

comparative advantage which, until now, Hertfordshire has enjoyed.

2. In this report, we have looked at the economy of Hertfordshire and Watford, the key

challenges for the economy and how transport helps. To support this we have secured

backing and a significant financial contribution from Hertfordshire’s Local Enterprise

Partnership and assembled an impressive body of primary evidence from interviews

with major businesses and developers in the area.The report extracts quotes from the

interviews with the businesses and developers, and the full report can be found in

Appendix A.

Economic Overview

3. Hertfordshire has a strong economy and has been labelled ‘the economic engine house

of the East of England’. The economic success is underpinned by key, high value

sectors, including Information and Communications Technologies, Business Services and

Finance,Bio-science and Pharmaceuticals and Digital Media. These are of both national

and international significance. However, underperformance in the last decade has

stalled economic growth in the county and there is danger it may lose its competitive

edge. It needs investment in infrastructure if it is to continue the high levels of growth

required to contribute to the delivery of a full and sustainable recovery for the UK.

4. Watford is one of the most highly populated urban areas in Hertfordshire, with 91,000

inhabitants. It has the second highest GVA per head in the region (£28,000 by

residence) and the town is home to six of the top 30 largest companies in

Hertfordshire. Watford’s economy relies on its linkages with London and its

connectivity with the rest of the country. Its role as a transport hub is key to attracting

inward investment.

Key Economic Challenges& the Role of Transport

5. The continued economic success of Hertfordshire and Watford, and by extension the UK

as a whole, will depend on a number of key challenges being addressed. The economic

costs imposed by transport constraints, in particular lack of access and congestion, has

a significant impact on business growth and productivity within Hertfordshire through

lost productive time and reducing effective labour market catchments. Evidence shows

that the scale of these economic ‘costs’ of transport constraints are greater in

Hertfordshire that any other part of the region, with congestion costs to businesses and

residents around the urban areas of Watford, St Albans and Hemel Hempstead

amounting to over £80m per year, which will more than double to £170m by 2021.An

ICM survey of Hertfordshire Businesses published this year found that traffic congestion

on the county’s roads had the most significant negative impact on business efficiency

with seven in ten (72%) convinced that it has a detrimental impact. There is an urgent

economic need to invest in solutions which mitigate the social and economic impacts of

congestion.

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6. The economic profile of businesses make addressing these challenges vital to

maintaining the international competitiveness of indigenous high value businesses in

pharmaceuticals, business and financial services. The role of strategic linkages to

London, the ability to access a large labour market and need to support agglomeration

all affect the overall economic competitiveness of the county.

7. Transport also has a key role in addressing other key economic challenges facing

Hertfordshire and Watford;

I Population and employment growth: Population and employment in the county is

forecast to increase by 18% and 16% respectively by 2031. The targets Watford has

set in its Core Strategy are 6,500 new homes and 7,000 new jobs by 2031, at or

exceeding previous RSS targets. The delivery of housing in a sustainable manner will

rely on good public transport accessibility, while employment growth will be

supported by the development of strategic employment sites. Croxley will serve

five of the six strategic development sites in Watford.

I Retaining growth and competitiveness: In the absence of necessary sustainable

transport infrastructure future growth will further exacerbate transport constraints,

and threaten the economic competitiveness of the county.

I Sustainable growth: underpinning the challenges above is the need to ensure

sustainable growth while mitigating the impacts of climate change.

8. In response to these challenges, both Hertfordshire and Watford have developed

strategies to deliver long term sustainable economic growth. The Local Economic

Partnership has a key role in this and has already set out a vision;

“By 2021, Hertfordshire will have a resilient and low carbon economy

characterised by quality jobs, innovative and dynamic business, supported by a

well skilled, workforce and an entrepreneurial culture, where everyone has the

opportunity to prosper and fulfil their ambitions.”1

9. In Watford, there are a number of key developments which have implications on the

economy of the town centre and nearby, such as:

I Watford Health Campus

I Warner Bros

I Croxley Green Business Park

I Development site near Ascot Road

10. There are also a number of sites identified in the Watford Core Strategy as being

‘Special Policy Areas’ (see Figure 2.1), some of which overlap with the above, but some

are in addition. Five of these six areas are served by Croxley Rail Link.

Croxley Rail Link – Economic Benefits

11. There are a number of ways in which Croxley Rail Link is supporting the local economy,

which have been supported by stakeholder views, taken from the numerous businesses

and developers interviewed for this piece of work.

I Better strategic connections – The Croxley Rail Link will provide a new direct metro

service between the City of London, Central London and West and Central Watford.

1 Hertfordshire’s Economic Outlook, July 2011 (Consultation Draft)

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The link will provide better connections to the West Coast Main Line at Watford

Junction.

� “Access from central London is good but it could be improved. If there were

more rail options than just the Watford Junction line, it would be better.” -

Matthew Arnold and Baldwin LLP

I Enhanced local accessibility – Time will be saved which is currently spent walking

between Watford Town Centre and the Health Campus and other developments to

the south west of the town, as well as from the existing Met station to these

locations. This time will be considerably shortened by CRL.

� “The time it currently takes to go from Watford to the Health Campus and

the hospital is too long. It’s not far in distance but it can take half an hour

by car or bus, or walking (but many may not be able to walk). It’s 20 minutes

walk to the Metropolitan station at present but even that is too far and

many choose to drive, which adds congestion to the roads. The new CRL

station will be 5 minutes walk which means everyone will use that.” –

Watford Health Campus

I Expanding effective labour markets and encouraging sustainable commuting –

access to skills and labour is a key factor in businesses decisions to locate in an

area, and in their ability to recruit and expand. CRL will attract more business to

the area as it improves transport options and gives better access to key areas. This

also links to the point above on better strategic connections into and out of London.

� “Currently it’s hard to recruit for Croxley Business Park and Watford

Business Park as they are quite remote, with poor transport links. CRL will

attract more businesses into the area, if they see it has better transport

connections. It will make Watford more ‘recognised’ as a place, as this tends

to happen when stations are built. It gives the area more ‘oomph’” - Hays

Recruitment

I Reducing congestion – CRL will contribute to reducing congestion by improving

public transport links, encouraging modal shift and, over time, encouraging more

sustainable patterns of development.

� “A better LUL connection would mean fewer people driving to the industrial

estate and therefore parking and road capacity would be available for

purposes such as loading and distribution.” – Sigma Pharmaceuticals

I Connections to London and Heathrow – London represents the primary economic

driver in the UK, and also the location where transport capacity constraints present

the most significant potential constraint on growth and expansion. Stakeholders also

cited Heathrow as an important location which they will be better connected to

with CRL.

� [CRL would benefit us by providing a] “better connection from Heathrow,

South and Central London to Watford.”- Watford and West Hertfordshire

Chamber of Commerce

I Strategic employment sites and housing delivery – the potential scale and rate of

development anticipated would not be achieved without CRL.

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� “The impact on this site [development site near Ascot Road]would be nothing

but positive.” - Watford Health Campus

I Supporting Watford Town Centre – CRL will provide better connections to the town

centre as well as relieving parking and traffic issues.

� [CRL will make it] “easier for customers to access the bank and additional

facilities such as free use of board rooms for meetings” – Clydesdale Bank

12. Finally, it was possible to quantify some of the economic benefits to the local

businesses and developers, in that Croxley Green Business Park felt that 1,000 jobs

depended on the new link, and that approximately £150,000 would be saved per year

both by themselves in providing shuttle buses to the town centre, and also by one of

their tenants, GE Money.

13. The economic importance of the scheme is reflected in its priority status is county and

local economic development strategies, and through the overwhelming support of local

businesses and stakeholders.

“We see Croxley Rail Link as vital to the long-term economic success of Watford

and the county as a whole” – Watford and West Hertfordshire Chamber of Commerce.

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1 Introduction

Introduction

1.1 Croxley Rail Link (CRL) in addition to delivering a step change in the quality and

accessibility of transport provision will also deliver significant benefits to the local and

wider economy.

1.2 This piece of work identifies the positive impact CRL would have on the economy. The

report highlights the economic and policy context within which Croxley will be

delivered, and draws on extensive evidence that demonstrated the importance of

transport in delivering economic growth through increasing efficiency and supporting

sustainable housing and employment growth.

1.3 We have also undertaken targeted interviews with a number of local businesses and

stakeholders to understand how CRL will affect their business. This evidence has been

employed to assess the ways in which CRL will support economic and employment

growth in the real economy.

Structure of the document

1.4 To give the background context, Chapter 2 gives an Economic Overview, first discussing

Hertfordshire, then zooming down to Watford and finally the Croxley Rail Link.

1.5 Chapter 3 is concerned with the Role of Transport in Delivering Growth, drawing on the

strong evidence base from previous work.

1.6 Chapter 4 discusses Croxley Rail Link and its Economic Impact, based on its strategic

connections it provides and the evidence from local businesses and stakeholders of how

this will benefit them and the wider economy.

1.7 Chapter 5 sets out the key conclusions.

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2 Economic Overview

Overview of Hertfordshire and Watford Economy

Hertfordshire Economy

2.1 Hertfordshire has a strong economy and has been labelled ‘the economic engine house

of the East of England’. Hertfordshire’s economy outperforms much of the UK (19.8%

above UK average). Its GVA contribution of £26bn is equivalent to 2/3rds of the total

GVA generated by the entire North East region. The dynamism and strength of the

Hertfordshire economy is also borne out by the number of new business registering in

the county, which is 27% higher than the UK average.

2.2 The economic success in underpinned by key high value sectors, including Information

and Communications Technologies (ICT), digital creativity and media and world class

pharmaceutical/biotechnology cluster connecting South Cambridgeshire, London and

Hertfordshire. These are of both national and international significance2. For

example, the pharmaceutical / life-sciences cluster defined by a 35 miles radius around

Stevenage represents the second largest cluster outside the United States. The county

also has significant employment in financial and business services and is the

headquarter location for major international companies including GSK,Astrium, MBDA,

Merck, Computacentre, Premier foods and Tesco. In total 56% of the county’s

employees work in ‘knowledge based’ sectors.

2.3 The attractiveness of the county to high-value ‘knowledge based’ businesses reflects its

proximity to London and its excellent national and international transport links.

However, the Transport and the Economy Study3 identified future transport constraints

as a key barrier to the delivering future growth potential, with the costs of congestion

to the region estimated at £720m per annum by 2021, with the greatest productivity

losses occurring in the London Arc, which comprises Watford and its neighbours.

2.4 However, underperformance during this last decade has stalled the economic growth

and the county is in danger of losing its competitive edge, and there remain challenges

around pockets of deprivation within the county and the need to increase the skills

levels and attainment of people with skills. Hertfordshire’s workplace GVA per head is

not keeping pace with other high performing counties outside London e.g. Berkshire

(58.7% above UK) and Surrey (27.3% above). Growth rates, in recent years, have

slowed – largely as a result of general economic conditions but also because of

weaknesses in key productivity drivers such as investment and in particular investment

in transport infrastructure.

2.5 Hertfordshire has been under-performing relative to both its own historic performance

and to other areas which could be identified as benchmarks (e.g. Surrey, Thames

Valley). Real terms growth rates in the late 1990s exceeded 4% per annum, but

between 2000 and 2008, growth rates had tailed off (i.e. Hertfordshire began to lose

ground on its high growth benchmarks in the south east). The cumulative loss of output

2 Hertfordshire Economic Development Strategy 2009 – 2021, June 2010.

3 Transport and the Economy in the East of England, September 2008, East of England Development Agency

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between 2000 and 2008, as a result of lower levels of growth, would be well over £5

billion at today’s prices4.

The Watford Economy

2.6 The majority of Hertfordshire businesses are located in urban areas, with the main

towns in the county being Watford (population of 91,000), Hemel Hempstead (82,000),

Stevenage (81,000) and St Albans (64,000)5. The success of these centres will underpin

the future growth of the county as a whole.

2.7 Watford has a GVA per head of £28,000 by residence6 (the second highest in the

region), and GVA per employee (workplace) of £38,500. The town is home to six of the

top 30 largest companies in Hertfordshire, including three specialising in health and

bio-science related activity. There is a strong presence of digital and media, and the

town centre houses a sizeable business and financial services sector, including

companies such as KPMG, Clydesdale Bank and NatWest.

2.8 However, Watford is also characterised by a relatively high proportion of deprivation,

which has been exacerbated by the loss of a number of lower-value jobs over the last

decade.

2.9 Watford’s economy relies on its linkages with London and its connectivity with other

parts of the county. Its role as a transport hub is key to attracting inward investment,

supporting the expansion of existing knowledge-base businesses and hence delivering

the benefits of future economic growth and the ‘spin-off’ benefits of clustering through

agglomeration and labour market specialisation.

Key Economic Challenges

Population and Employment Growth

2.10 Hertfordshire’s population currently stands at 1.06 million and is predicted to grow to

1.26million by 2031, an increase of 18%. This implies a growth of slightly less than

100,000 new households over this period.

2.11 Employment is forecast to increase by 79,000 over the same period (an increase of

16%), with 43,500 of these jobs being in key high value growth sectors7.

2.12 Watford’s Local Development Framework (LDF) Core Strategy sets out targets for 6,500

new homes and 7,000 new jobs, the latter of which exceed that in the now defunct

Regional Spatial Strategy.

4Hertfordshire Economic Assessment, July 2011, quote: “"Hertfordshire has experienced lower employment growth, lower

GVA growth and significantly lower take up of office floorspace over recent years. Research by GL Hearn for the

Hertfordshire Strategic Employment Sites study… suggests this results partly from the quality of the product, (poor

quality commercial buildings and lack of new stock) and the perception of Hertfordshire as having transport problems,

poor physical environment, and poorer higher education facilities in comparison with its main competitors. These factors

have influenced the relatively poor performance of Hertfordshire, particularly when compared to Cambridge and the

Thames Valley/Berkshire, and the failure to develop a critical mass, particularly in the B1 office market."

5Hertfordshire Economic Development Strategy 2009 – 2021, June 2010.

6 East of England Regional Economic Atlas (District and Unitary Indicators – Headline Indicators, GVA), Insight East,

www.insighteast.co.uk

7Regeneris Consulting using Oxford Economic Forecasts, Autumn 2010

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Retaining Growth and Competitiveness

2.13 For the county to realise the forecasts set out above, it must address potential

constraints, such as housing, land availability and transport, in order to create the

necessary conditions to support successful growth and expansion. In particular, the

ability of the region to retain and attract employment in key clusters and knowledge-

based activities will be the key driver of future economic success.

2.14 The international nature and mobility of these sectors represents both an opportunity

and a threat to Hertfordshire and Watford. The existence of highly successful clusters

should act as a draw for inward investors8, but the key challenges of skills, transport

and housing must be addressed if the county is to retain its competitive edge.

2.15 Regeneris Strategic Sites Study commissioned by Herts County Council suggested that

both Croxley and Watford Business Parks 'have the potential for an enhanced role as a

sub-regionally significant (employment) site'. They go on to say that 'the Council and

partners should progress the funding bid for the Croxley Rail Link which could provide

the impetus for new high quality employment space'.

The Housing Challenge

2.16 The delivery of housing to support forecast growth remains a key challenge. Like most

top-performing areas, Hertfordshire is an expensive place to live, and in which to do

business. In order to attract investors, it needs to demonstrate significant added value.

2.17 The focus for new housing will in existing centres, and Watford has established an

ambition target for housing levels, including targets for affordable homes. A related

issue is that the current shortage of housing manifests itself in higher prices, which

threaten the county’s attractive for all workers as a location of choice, and places a

specific challenge for lower income workers for whom the income to house price ratio

makes buying a house prohibitive.

Sustainable Growth

2.18 The need to ensure sustainable growth is a cross-cutting challenge that is central to the

land use and transport dimensions of delivering long-term growth while mitigating the

impacts of climate change. The East of England Transport and Carbon Study9 (TraCS)

forecast a central estimate of 41% growth in traffic (vehicle kilometres) between 2006

and 2031, and an associated increase in carbon emissions of around 23% under a

‘Business As Usual’ scenario. This suggests that improvements in vehicle efficiency

alone will not be sufficient to reduce the carbon impact of transport, and underscore

the importance of schemes and measures, such as CRL, that encourage modal shift and

more sustainable land use.

Meeting the Challenge - Economic Priorities

2.19 In response to these challenges both Hertfordshire and Watford have developed

strategies to deliver long-term sustainable economic growth.

8Foreign direct investment (FDI) firms now account for almost a third of total R&D businesses expenditure in the UK

9The East of England Transport and Carbon Study, EEDA, November 2009

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Hertfordshire Economic Priorities

2.20 The local economic partnership and Hertfordshire County Council have a shared

visionthat aims to strengthen Hertfordshire’s economic advantage, provide a robust

platform for recovery and promote strong sustainable growth:

“By 2021, Hertfordshire will have a resilient and low carbon economy characterised by

quality jobs, innovative and dynamic business, supported by a well skilled, workforce

and an entrepreneurial culture, where everyone has the opportunity to prosper and

fulfil their ambitions.10”

2.21 The partnership’s objectives include:

i) Encouraging economic growth that has strong low carbon credentials and

demonstrates compliance with best practice for sustainable development.

ii) Identifying strategic locations for new high quality employment growth along key

transport corridors that put Hertfordshire ‘on the map’.

iii) Encouraging the regeneration of existing employment areas and town centres in

order to improve economic and social wellbeing in those communities, within the

constraints imposed by the environment.

iv) Helping to ensure appropriate transport, social, community and business

infrastructure is in place to ensure growth is sustainable.

v) Lobbying to unblock infrastructure constraints including rail capacity.

2.22 There is therefore a clear sectoral and spatial dimension to the strategy, where the

role of transport will be central in supporting competitiveness and the sustainable

growth in housing and employment.

Watford Economic Priorities and relevant major developments

2.23 The broad Hertfordshire-wide priorities have been translated, at the Watford level,

into specific spatial priorities aimed at supporting the Vision of ‘reinvigorating

Watford’s local economic prosperity and potential whilst enhancing our environmental

and social fabric’.

2.24 The key priorities are:

I Supporting the Town Centre

I Identified employment zones etc.

I Supporting major developments

2.25 Significant developments in the pipeline for Watford with implications on its town

centre include the Watford Health Campus development, reconnecting West Watford

with the town centre via the Croxley Rail Link and the redevelopment of Watford

Junction as a new multi-modal transport hub.

2.26 Recently, in September 2010, a new campus for West Herts College was completed in

the area, just to the north west of Watford Junction. This new campus serves 2,000

students and 450 staff daily, and includes classrooms, studios, workshops, science

laboratories, hair and beauty salons, IT suites, photography studios and a theatre with

10 Hertfordshire’s Economic Strategy, July 2011 (Consultation Draft)

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space for up to 120 people. This new college is within easy walking distance to Watford

Junction and its staff and students will benefit from the increased connections

available at Watford Junction with CRL.

2.27 The Watford Health Campus provides a major employment opportunity which seeks to

regenerate 26.5 ha of underused land to create a new hospital and further health

facilities, offices, new housing, business, leisure and recreation space together with a

new stadium for Watford Football Club. The development will create in excess of 2,000

new jobs through the new business and retail facilities11. The developers are keen to

support new transport infrastructure and help re-connect West Watford with the town

centre. The Campus will also support the growth in life sciences and Information and

Communications Technology (ICT) which are already key industry clusters.

2.28 Watford is also known for its strengths in film and creative media. Watford makes a

large contribution to the British film industry through Warner Brothers’ Leavesden film

studios where much of the Harry Potter series was filmed.Warner Bros have recently

invested £120m in a new site at Leavesden. The new site has two parts, a private suite

of 9 film studios, and a public Visitor Attraction (for Harry Potter). The site is huge and

is set to become the primary filming location in Europe. The new studio tour will result

in approx 200+ full time and seasonal jobs, and the Studio itself, approx 40 full time

jobs.

2.29 Warner Bros anticipate 5000 visitors a day at the Harry Potter Attraction, most of who

will arrive at Watford Junction. Hourly, these visitors will generate 270 two way car

movements, 12 two-way bus movements and 18 two-way taxi movements12. Trip

distribution calculations assume that;

I 32% will access the site via the A41 Watford Road (via M25 Junction 20);

I 26% via A405 South to Leavesden Interchange;

I 20% via M25 Junction 19;

I 15% via A41 West (via the Dome); and

I 8% via Southern Routes (A411/ Courtlands Drive/ A412).

2.30 Currently, Warner Bros are considering branded shuttle buses to get visitors from

Watford Junction to the site. Better connectivity to Watford Junction is very important

to the company.

2.31 Croxley Green Business Park already exists, very close to the Ascot Road proposed

station, and it is managed by Greenhills. There are plans for more floorspace to be

built and they are currently doing a masterplan which will add approximately 200,000

square feet of additional office space. It is anticipated that this will add a further 1,000

new jobs to the Park.

2.32 Land around Watford Junction has also been earmarked for development for a mixture

of uses including improvements to the station itself. Last year, a joint venture between

Redrow Regeneration and Blackfriars Investment Ltd, put forward a new

neighbourhood, including homes (up to 2000 residential units), community facilities,

11www.watfordhealthcampus.info

12 Transport Assessment for Planning Application “CONTINUED USE OF LAND AND BUILDINGS FOR FILM PRODUCTION AND

ASSOCIATED ACTIVITIES” – Warner Bros, by Colin Buchanan, Jan 2010

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shops, open spaces and better links to train and bus services. The development would

produce 1,500 jobs and would generate £43-50m GVA per annum. However, this

masterplan did not get the £24m of public funding for the infrastructure it set out to

obtain, which would have initiated £370m of private spend. Now a different scheme is

being discussed, which is retail dominated. This is still in very early stages.

2.33 There is a development site near Ascot Road, which is very close to one of the new

proposed stations along the Met line. Watford Borough Council is the freeholder and has

a long lease to Royal Mail. Centros have bought the lease from Royal Mail. Royal Mail is

moving off the site in about 18 months to 2 years’ time which will result in a loss of 800

jobs. Centros have started discussing possible uses including retail, residential, B1 and

possibly a school. Some alternative layouts are being produced. One corner of the site

to the north west, at closest proximity to the new station is owned by VAL AD Property

Group, who has their own plans for the area. This 6 acre plot of land has been

earmarked for employment uses but VAL AD wish to develop the site into food retail,

leisure and housing (509 homes).

2.34 Figure 2.1 shows the location of special policy areas in Watford, as defined in Watford’s

Core Strategy. Five of the six sites would be directly served by Croxley Rail Link, and

how the other (Watford North) would be better connected via the link and the

committed upgrade of the Abbey Line.

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FIGURE 2.1 WATFORD OVERVIEW MAP SHOWING SPECIAL POLICY AREAS

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3 The Role of Transport in Delivering Growth

Conceptual Linkages

3.1 There has been an increasing focus on the role of transport in supporting economic

growth and productivity, following theEddington Report in 2006, which highlighted the

importance of strategic connectivity and the role of transport in supporting urban

agglomeration and growth. This emphasis on transport as a key driver of economic

growth has been continued by the current Government, with infrastructure priorities

recognised as key the long-terms competitiveness of the UK economy.

3.2 The key mechanisms by which transport can support economic growth are:

I Business time savings – this represents time saved to businesses during the course

of work, whereby the ‘costs’ of delay are directly borne by the employer in lost

productivity (valued at the wage rate). The impact on businesses will be greatest

where there are higher levels of congestion, and the higher the productivity of

businesses affected.

I Agglomeration - typically, firms are more productive when near other firms because

they gain access to a large variety of inputs to their activities. Proximity to other

similar firms also increases the chance of acquiring new knowledge and of building

connections and networks which support or increase productivity. Many firms are

also more productive when they have access to a larger labour market since this

makes recruitment quicker and it is easier to find workers that match the skills each

firm is seeking. Certain industries, including financial and businesses services and

science / R&D firms exhibit much higher agglomeration ‘elasticities’, whereby the

productivity benefit for a given reduction in transport costs (or increased ‘effective

density’) will be greater.

I Labour market impacts – Transport can expand firms’ labour markets, and

encourage individuals to change labour market decisions about where they work.

Reducing commuting costs can result in labour market productivity gains, as people

are encouraged to take better jobs in higher value locations.

Evidence from the Transport in the East of England (TEES) Study

3.3 The East of England Development Agency (EEDA) commissioned a strategic study in

2008 to examine the economic impact of transport in the region13, and specifically how

transport contributed to the (then) Regional Economic Strategy (RES) headline targets

in the area of prosperity and productivity, employment and the carbon.

Core Findings – Intra-Regional and Hertfordshire

3.4 The key findings of relevance to this study were that:

I Congestion and overcrowding on the East of England’s transport networks cost the

UK economy £324m per annum in GDP terms in 2003 rising to £720m per annum by

2021 despite committed transport investments.

13Transport and the Economy in the East of England Study (TEES), Steer Davies Gleave on behalf of EEDA, 2008.

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I The Engine of Growth with the highest productivity potential is by some margin the

London Arc. Hertfordshire comprises much of the London Arc – one of the Eastern

Region’s seven identified ‘Engines of Growth’.

I That congestion costs businesses and residents around the urban areas of Watford,

St Albans, and Hemel Hempstead over £80m a year, and this will more than double

to £170m a year by 2021.

I On a per lost total GVA by district and lost GVA per capita Watford, Hemel

Hempstead and Stevenage represent 3 of the top 4 key centres in the region.

3.5 The distribution of productivity costs of congestion in 2021, are shown in Figure 3.1.The

figure clearly shows that Watford and western Hertfordshire are characterised by the

greatest costs of congestion within the London Arc/ Thames Gateway

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11

FIGURE 3.1 TOTAL PRODUCTIVITY COSTS OF CONGESTION PER ANNUM (2021)

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12

Core Findings - Links to London

3.6 The key inter-regional priority14 for the East of England was identified as thecorridor

between London and the London Arc. These areas can be seen in Figure 3.2 below.

London has the highest wider impact (agglomeration) uplift potential in the UK, and the

London Arc the highest in the Eastern Region.

FIGURE 3.2 ‘ENGINES OF GROWTH’ IN THE EAST OF ENGLAND

3.7 In assessing the relative economic importance of all corridors three key criteria were

assessed:

I What are the key movements in the region? These are measured by the volume of

movement between and to key locations (the Engines of Growth).

I The identification of transport constraints or ‘hot-spots’. Where and when is

congestion prevalent? This is measured by a congestion index measuring actual

journey times compared to those experienced in free-flow conditions.

I The identification of the locations where relieving congestion would result in

greatest productivity improvement, i.e. where do transport constraints ‘matter’?

This was measured by the ‘Wider Impacts uplift’ potential which represents the

addition agglomeration and labour market benefits as a percentage over and above

time savings.

3.8 The corridor between London and the London Arc had the second highest volume of

movements of all the corridors considered. However, in terms of the key metrics of

the congestion index (productive time ‘lost’), and the wider impacts uplift (the

14 The TEES study looked at linkages between each ‘Engine of Growth’ within the Eastern Region and adjacent regions –

e.g. London, South East, East Midlands.

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13

additional wider benefits of reducing congestion) London Arc to London scored the

highest of all corridors, indicating that the greatest proportional productivity

improvement from improving transport connections would be in this corridor.

3.9 Indeed, the wider impacts uplift was 53% for movements between London and the

London Arc. London has the highest wider impacts (agglomeration) uplift potential in

the UK, and the London Arc the highest in the Region.

Economic Policy – Recognising the Role of Transport

3.10 The Transport and the Economy study, and the evidence base it provided, was

influential in shaping the region’s transport priorities towards those that would best

deliver economic growth. The economic importance of Croxley Rail Link was

highlighted through regional, county and local priorities. For example:

I The East of England Region prioritised Croxley Rail Link in its Regional Funding

Allocation (RFA) advice. Based on the thorough evidence base and prioritisation

work undertaken, Croxley Rail Link was recommended as the largest (by cost) one of

only seven schemes prioritised to start during the pre-2013/14 period.

I The Hertfordshire Economic Development Strategy15 identifies the scheme as a top

infrastructure priority for the county under the priority theme ‘quality

Infrastructure to support growth’.

I Watford’s LDF highlights the delivery of high priority infrastructure schemes to

support sustainable low carbon development in the County including Croxley Rail

Link, Watford Junction and the Abbey Line Tram link.

15 Hertfordshire: The Place of Choice, Innovation, Opportunity and Inclusion: Hertfordshire Economic Development

Strategy, 2009-2021, Hertfordshire Works, June 2010.

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14

4 Croxley Rail Link – Economic Impacts

4.1 The previous Chapter presented the evidence that:

I The strength of the Watford and Hertfordshire economy, which is based on its

knowledge-based economy and the presence of high value clusters in the areas of

(ICT), Bio-science and pharmaceuticals, digital creativity and media and financial

and business services. The future economic success of the area will rely on further

growth of these sectors.

I The international significance of these sectors, characterised by high international

mobility and high rates of inward investment, mean that sustained growth will result

additional GVA and employment to the UK.

I Transport connectivity is one of the key attribute that knowledge-based businesses

will look for, along with a skilled labour market.

I Evidence from the TEES study shows that transport congestion and capacity issues

will represent an increasing economic cost to the region into the future, despite

planned investment. The analysis also showed that the greatest economic benefit

improving transport connectivity would be gained from investment in the London

Arc.

4.2 This chapter considers specifically how Croxley Rail link will support the wider economy

of Watford, Hertfordshire and London, and hence deliver benefits to the UK.

Connectivity Benefits of Croxley Rail Link

4.3 The improved connectivity that Croxley provides is shown in Figure 4.1.

Watford Hub - Better Strategic Connections

4.4 Transport connectivity is of critical importance to the types of businesses that underpin

the current and future economic success and prosperity of the area. Watford’s location

on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) and its proximity to London make it a natural

public transport hub, which can provide connections between the wider Hertfordshire

and North London area and the strategic network.

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15

FIGURE 4.1 IMPROVED CONNECTIVITY WITH CRL

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16

4.5 Croxley Rail Link performs a key role in supporting the role of Watford as a strategic

hub, through enhancing the following strategic connections:

I To and from Central London and the City. CRL will provide a new direct metro

service between Central and West Watford and London with better connections to

the WCML. CRL will deliver additional benefits by reducing rail overcrowding on the

WCML and providing additional modal choice in the congested SW Herts region.

I To the midlands and north via WCML.

I Providing a much improved axis between south-east of Watford and St. Albans,

though the combination of CRL, improved Watford Hub connections and the Abbey

Line upgrade.

Enhanced Local Accessibility

4.6 Several interviewees mentioned the benefits CRL will bring because it will save time

which is currently spent walking between Watford Town Centre and the Health

Campus/ Hospital/ Football club, and also between the existing Watford Metropolitan

station to the Town Centre, Health Campus/ Hospital/Football clubs. Each of these

journeys is currently around 25-30 minutes but will be more like 5 minutes with CRL.

“The time it currently takes to go from Watford to the Health Campus and the

hospital is too long. It’s not far in distance but it can take half an hour by car or

bus, or walking (but many may not be able to walk). Its 20 minutes walk to the

Metropolitan station at present but even that is too far and many choose to drive,

which adds congestion to the roads. The new CRL station will be 5 minutes walk

which means everyone will use that.” – Watford Health Campus

“A connection to Watford General Hospital would benefit employees and visitors

of the Hospital as well as ensure that some visitors to Watford FC will use the

trains.” – Sigma

[CRL enhances] “customer choice and convenience” – Warner Bros.

Expanding Effective Labour Markets& Encouraging Sustainable Commuting

4.7 Access to skills and labour is a key factor in businesses' decisions to locate in an area,

and in their ability to recruit and expand. Costs associated with staff recruitment and

retention can be significant, and improvements in transport can reduce commuting

costs and hence increase businesses effective labour market catchments.

4.8 The polycentric nature of settlements in the London Arc, their economic inter-

dependence through supporting key clusters, and their proximity to London are

reflected in very diffuse patterns of commuting as well as high volumes. Watford had a

ratio of job to working population16 (16-64 age group) of 1.27 compared to a national

average of 0.78in 2009, suggesting that sustaining and expanding the employment base

of Watford will rely on supporting further in-commuting, and hence the expansion of its

labour market catchment.

4.9 Several of the stakeholders told us that this was important to them, namely Watford

Health Campus and Hays recruitment agency:

16 www.nomisweb.co.uk

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17

“Croxley Rail link is fundamental for business uses of the Campus. CRL will help

the Health Campus attract end users for the office space.” Watford Health

Campus

“Currently it’s hard to recruit for Croxley Business Park and Watford Business

Park as they are quite remote, with poor transport links.CRL will attract more

businesses into the area, if they see it has better transport connections. It will

make Watford more ‘recognised’ as a place, as this tends to happen when stations

are built.”Hays recruitment agency

4.10 Croxley Business Park mentioned the importance of sustainable choices, stating that:

“Croxley Green Business Park has a green theme, with its car sharing scheme, bike

scheme (100 free hire bikes) and bus service. It is trying to minimise car use where

possible but public transport is so poor. CRL will help achieve this.”

4.11 Watford and Hertfordshire Chamber of Commerce added they saw it as a welcome

“environment friendly mode of transport”.

“CRL will be really good for the Watford area including all the businesses. Several

businesses are moving out of the town centre into the Business Parks as Watford

expands, and this will help a lot as it will give them better access to these areas.

It should give better local access for local people, which is what we want.”

4.12 Croxley Rail Link will have beneficial labour market impacts not only for business in

Watford but also potentially for other centres such as St. Albans and Hemel Hempstead,

through providing improved public transport connection.

Reducing Congestion

4.13 The urban cluster of Watford, Hemel Hempstead and St. Albans is characterised by

some of the worst congestion in the region that imposes significant economic costs to

businesses. Croxley will contribute to reducing congestion by improving public

transport connections, encouraging modal shift and, over time, encouraging more

sustainable patterns of land use.

4.14 The severity of the congestion problem has been explicitly identified by the county in

its Local Sustainable Transport Bid (LSTF)17 which focused on a package of sustainable

measures, including walking and cycling, smarter choices, improved passenger services,

technology and innovation, with the stated objective:

‘To maximise Hemel Hempstead, St Albans and Watford’s contribution to the UK’s

sustainable economic growth.’

4.15 Hertfordshire County Council was one of only five promoters invited to submit a full

business case to the DfT by December 2011.

4.16 Though the LSTF and Croxley schemes are in no way dependent, they are highly

complementary as the success of measures designed to encourage modal shift will rely

on the quality and attractiveness of public transport alternatives. While walking and

cycling will have an important role to play, the polycentric nature of the area and

17 Big Herts Big Ideas – LSTF Large Project Initial Proposal, June 2011

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18

diffuse patterns of commuting mean that enhanced public transport will be

fundamental to supporting long-term sustainable economic growth.

4.17 An ICM survey of Hertfordshire Businesses published this year found that traffic

congestion on the county’s roads had the most significant negative impact on business

efficiency with seven in ten (72%) convinced that it has a detrimental impact. There is

an urgent economic need to invest in solutions which mitigate the social and economic

impacts of congestion.

4.18 Congestion was cited as a major problem by many of the stakeholders interviewed also.

In particular for companies such as DDD Ltd, who require lots of deliveries to be made.

They said a major issue for them was

“congestion – which affects the immediate area outside the factory. Delivering and

utilities use Rickmansworth Road to access the site, including some large HGVs.

The congestion along this road along with the constraints renders deliveries

difficult.”. They went on to say that CRL will benefit them “due to congestion

relief caused by more using rail than road. This will make deliveries easier.”

4.19 Sigma Pharmaceuticals were also among those who talked about congestion as a major

concern, along with parking. They stated that:

“a better LUL connection would mean fewer people driving to the industrial

estate and therefore parking and road capacity would be available for purposes

such as loading and distribution.”

4.20 Clydesdale bank noted that

“more people using the CRL would mean that the road space would be cleared for

essential journeys only”.

Connections to London and Heathrow

4.21 London represents the primary economic driver in the UK, and also the location where

transport capacity constraints present the most significant potential constraint on

growth and expansion. Croxley Rail Link will provide a new direct link to London via

the Met Line, as well as freeing up capacity on the WCML, which is one of the most

crowded routes on the network at its southern end.

4.22 Many stakeholders highlighted the importance of improved connections to London:

“CRL will benefit us by providing a better connection from Heathrow and South

and Central London to Watford and to the estate” – Sigma Pharmaceuticals

“CRL will provide a better connection from Heathrow, South and Central London to

Watford” – Watford and West Hertfordshire Chamber of Commerce

“Access from central London is good but it could be improved. If there were more

rail options than just the Watford Junction line, it would be better.”Matthew

Arnold & Baldwin LLP

4.23 The Heath Campus agree, stating:

“Regarding the offices and research, [CRL] will improve work prospects as it

gives better access to North London conurbations and to Watford. The office sites

at the Health campus are not yet occupied so it will attract business to those.”

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19

Strategic Employment Sites&Housing Delivery

4.24 Future sustainable economic growth will depend on businesses being able to expand

and grow, and on new businesses locating to sustainable locations, as well as on the

provision of additional housing to support population and employment growth.

4.25 The Hertfordshire County and Watford economic policies identify strategic employment

sites will be a key for employment growth. Croxley Rail Link will directly serve five of

the six strategic employment sites within Watford, and is therefore a prime example of

integrated transport and land use planning.

4.26 It is clear from the views of stakeholders that the potential scale and rate of

development in these locations would not be achieved in the absence of CRL:

4.27 Greenhills, who act on behalf of the owners of Croxley Green Business Park, explained

they have

“plans for more floorspace to be built and we are currently doing a masterplan

which will add approximately 200,000 square feet of additional office space.”

They went on to describe that employment at the site would go “from 2,500 to

3,500 with CRL”, adding 1,000 employees, as the scheme is in such close proximity

to their site. They stated that “a fixed link from the station will be

transformational”.

4.28 Croxley will directly benefit the Health Campus, which is developing new office space,

research facilities and residential (around 500 new homes).

“Regarding the housing development [at the Health Campus], the rail link will

make it more sustainable. It would increase land values and encourage investment

in other areas of the site. CRL will help regeneration initiatives in West Watford.”

4.29 Developers Centros, who have land near the proposed Ascot Road station along the

route, when discussing the benefits of CRL, said

“its impact on this site would be nothing but positive”. “If it does go ahead, the

northern part of the site will be more attractive, particularly to office (B1) uses,

as well as other uses.”

4.30 VAL AD Property Group also have land in this area and said

“We have known about CRL since we took over the site, about 6 or 7 years ago.

Our proposals for the site are closely linked to CRL, which would act as an

excellent catalyst for the regeneration of the site.”

4.31 Pharmasure, who are situated to the south west of CRL (see Figure 4.2), said that CRL

would

“improve our position and provide better accessibility to public transport, and

improve access to visitors. CRL is good for Watford in general as it provides

accessibility to majority of people working around the General Hospital and

Business Park”.

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20

Supporting Watford Town Centre

4.32 CRL will provide better connections to the town centre as well as relieving parking and

traffic issues in the town centre as more switch to using the underground line rather

than driving. There are several examples where stakeholders supported this:

I Sigma Pharmaceuticals said that “access for employees, visitors and distribution

vehicles is limited due to limited road capacities and parking within the

industrial estate” and that CRL “would help tremendously” with this.

I John Lewis, who are situated in the Town Centre, stated that CRL “could be

beneficial for trade”

I Nat West, who are also centrally located, stated that CRL would make it “easier for

customers to access the bank and additional facilities such as free use of board

rooms for meetings”

4.33 CRL will also help expand Watford Town Centre’s boundary, as described in this quote

from Croxley Green Business Park:

“In Watford, people either want to be IN the town or OUT of it, and the Business

Park is currently not considered IN the town due to its poor public transport links.

With the CRL, it will have much more chance of being seen to be IN town”

4.34 The Harlequin Shopping Centre are extremely positive about the scheme’s benefits for

Watford:

“I would like to say we are totally supportive, and believe CRL will be good for

Watford and the perception of Watford, as well as the economic health of

Watford” – Harlequin Shopping Centre

Quantifying the Economic Benefits

4.35 Where possible, stakeholders were asked if they could quantify the economic benefits.

Respondents generally hadn’t monetised the economic impact of the investment but

had clear views about the project’s positive impacts on recruitment and retention and

the efficiency of the labour market in the Watford Travel to Work area. However,

Croxley Green Business Park were able to state:

4.36 “We already see 400 staff using the W60 bus [subsidised shuttle bus to Watford

Junction] each day, so a large number of people will transfer to the CRL and more

staff on site will use it as they will switch to using rail due to its convenience.

4.37 We have 150,000 sqft of vacant office at the moment, which equates to 1000

employees. We already have 2500 on site. This could (and would) go to 3500 with CRL.

The main barrier is accessibility. This implies CRL may attract 1,000 extra employees

to the site.

4.38 They also stated that one of their tenants, GE Money “employ 1,000 people at the

Business Park, and need to organise their own coaches to transport people to and from

the town centre, which costs them £60-70,000 a year”. One could imply from that, that

if £60-70,000 can be saved by no longer needing to transport 1,000 people, the

additional 1,000 will also save a further £60-70,000 a year.

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21

Location of businesses and developers interviewed

4.39 The businesses and developers we spoke to have been plotted on a map of the area

below. This shows where some are grouped and how they could be affected by CRL.

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22

FIGURE 4.2 LOCATIONS OF BUSINESSES/ DEVELOPERS INTERVIEWED

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23

5 Conclusions

5.1 Croxley Rail Link is a priority infrastructure scheme developed to support both the

regeneration of West Watford and sustainable economic growth of one of the UK’s most

economically innovative areas, contributing to economic growth in the UK as a whole.

5.2 Through undertaking this work, we have seen that:

I Hertfordshire has a strong economy and its economic success is underpinned by key,

high value sectors, including Information and Communications Technologies, Bio-

science and pharmaceuticals and digital media.

I Hertfordshire’s high performing economy which has lost some ground in recent

years, and needs investment in infrastructure if it is to continue the high levels of

growth required to deliver a full and sustainable recovery for the UK.

I Watford’s economy relies on its linkages with London and its connectivity with the

rest of the country, particularly the Midlands and the North West. Its role as a

transport hub underpins its success in attracting inward investment.

I The economic costs imposed by transport constraints, in particular congestion, has a

significant impact on productivity. Congestion costs to businesses and residents

around the urban areas of Watford, St Albans and Hemel Hempstead amounting to

over £80m per year, which will more than double to £170m by 2021.

I Transport also has a key role in addressing other key economic challenges such as

meeting population and employment targets, retaining growth and competitiveness

and ensuring sustainable growth.

I The regeneration of West Watford relies of good sustainable transport solutions and

connectivity with rail being key.

5.3 From the technical evidence base and extensive stakeholder interview programme we

have conducted, the key economic benefits of Croxley Rail Link can be summarised as:

I Reducing business costs by improving public transport accessibility and reducing

congestion.

I Increase effective labour market catchments and hence support business

expansion, reduce costs of recruitment and encourage sustainable commuting.

I Supporting the growth and competitiveness of high value sectors that rely on

excellent strategic transport connectivity, and where resulting agglomeration

benefits deliver significant productivity benefits to Hertfordshire and the UK as a

whole.

I Supporting sustainable employment and population growth in Watford and the

county through the coordination of transport and land use.

I Encouraging the specific development and sustainability of key employment sites

along the route, including the Health Campus and Croxley Green Business Park and

Ascot Road.

5.4 The economic importance of the scheme is reflected in its priority status is county and

local economic development strategies, and through the overwhelming support of local

businesses and stakeholders.

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24

5.5 “We see Croxley Rail Link as vital to the long-term economic success of Watford

and the county as a whole” – Watford and West Hertfordshire Chamber of Commerce.

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

APPENDIX

A

INTERVIEW WRITE-UPS

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AppendixA

A1 APPENDIX 1

As part of the work Steer Davies Gleave is conducting on the economic benefits of Croxley Rail

Link to businesses and developers, we have conducted stakeholder interviews. A total of 16

interviews have been done.

The responses have been set out in full below, after a summary list of who we spoke to.

• Watford and West Herts Chamber of Commerce

• Centros

• Watford Health Campus

• Croxley Green Business Park

• Sigma

• DDD Ltd

• John Lewis

• Matthew Arnold & Baldwin LLP

• Hays

• Total

• Nat West

• Clydesdale Bank

• Pharmasure

• VAL AD Development Group

• Harlequin Shopping Centre

• Warner Bros

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AppendixA

Watford and West Herts Chamber of Commerce

Roger Gagan - Chief Executive

1. When did you locate to Watford?

Located in the North Watford for almost 15 years. Not directly affected by CRL but it will have a

hugely positive impact in attracting employment and businesses to Watford.

2. What are the key issues that affect your business?

Watford is a prosperous town however due to recession, unemployment has risen and businesses

have moved out. Watford is ranked 5th in 600 cities with good transport connections- 25 kms to

London; accessible to 5 international airports; accessible to 2 of England’s busiest Motorways; 17

minutes to London Euston and through Euston connected to North England. Transport is a key

element that businesses can sell to attract economic stimulus to Watford.

3. What are the key ways in which transport affects your business?

Chamber of Commerce and Industry works towards attracting businesses to Watford by selling

economic potential of the town. Transport is an important element which increases the

economic potential. CRL would help tremendously in achieving this.

4. What are the key transport constraints?

Some roads experience congestion during the peak hours and parking near Watford Junction is

limited and expensive (£8 per day)

5. Would CRL help relive this?

Yes. CRL will enhance accessibility and sustainable travel to/ from Watford.

6. How do you see the CRL scheme benefitting you?

a) A better LUL connection would mean lesser people driving and therefore parking and

road capacity would be available for essential purposes.

b) Environment friendly mode of transport.

c) Increases connection to key places such as the Watford General hospital and town

centre.

d) Better connection from Heathrow, South and Central London to Watford.

We see Croxley Rail Link as vital to the long-term economic success of Watford and the county as

a whole.

Centros

Graham Kitcher – Development Manager

1. Please tell me about your development?

Watford Borough Council are the freeholders and had a head lease (a long lease) to Royal Mail.

Centros have bought the lease from Royal Mail. Royal Mail is moving off the site in about 18

months to 2 years’ time. Centros have started discussing possible uses including retail,

residential, B1 and possibly a school. Some alternative layouts are being produced.

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AppendixA

2. How did you learn about the CRL plans and when did you learn?

Heard about the CRL plans from Watford Borough Council when initiated discussions with them

on uses for the site. It potentially has great benefits for the Health Campus.

3. What impact do you think CRL will have on your development?

The impact on this site would be nothing but positive. However there is some uncertainty

created. If it doesn’t happen, then it will be harder to define the uses of the northern part of

the site, we would be more unsure what to do there. If it does go ahead, the northern part of

the site will be more attractive, particularly to office (B1) uses, as well as other uses.

4. Can you quantify this?

No, it’s too early to quantify this.

5. Is there anything you would like to add?

Most of the north west corner of the site, which would benefit the most from CRL, is subject to a

sub-lease to VAL AD Property Group, so Centros can’t use this part of the site anyway at the

moment.

CRL has always been promoted as a huge catalyst for regeneration by Watford Borough Council.

To Centros it would be helpful, but will be even more helpful to the Health Campus. We hope

the impact of CRL will be at a local level, and it won’t be used simply as a Park and Ride site for

Watford people to go in and out of London.

Watford Health Campus

Tom Dobrashian

1. Please tell me about your development?

The Health Campus is developing new office space, research facilities and residential (around

500 new homes). There is also a football club which is not part of but is attached to the Health

Campus.

2. How will Croxley Rail link (CRL) impact your development?

Regarding the housing development, the rail link will make it more sustainable. It would increase

land values and encourage investment in other areas of the site. CRL will help regeneration

initiatives in West Watford.

Regarding the offices and research, it will improve work prospects as it gives better access to

North London conurbations and to Watford. The office sites at the Health campus are not yet

occupied so it will attract business to those.

3. What are the current key transport constraints?

The time it currently takes to go from Watford to the Health Campus and the hospital is too

long. It’s not far in distance but it can take half an hour by car or bus, or walking (but many may

not be able to walk). Its 20 minutes walk to the Metropolitan station at present but even that is

too far and many choose to drive, which adds congestion to the roads. The new CRL station will

be 5 minutes walk which means everyone will use that.

4. What other key points would you like to add?

Croxley Rail link is fundamental for business uses of the Campus. It will also make the housing

more viable. CRL will help the Health Campus attract end users for the office space. It will also

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AppendixA

improve access for staff, patients and visitors to the hospital. Hospitals these days are more like

businesses – they can fail. CRL will help the Foundation Trust improve its catchment area,

making it a more viable business.

The attached football club will also benefit considerably, as it will help them retain their

business. They have hospitality suites which will be used much more frequently if CRL was there

as they would be much more accessible. The football club itself would be much more accessible

for people coming to watch matches.

Croxley Rail link is a vital component of the Health Campus’s development plans.

Croxley Green Business Park

Marcus Richardson

1. Please tell me about your site/ development?

Greenhills act on behalf of the owners of the estate. There are plans for more floorspace to be

built and we are currently doing a masterplan which will add approximately 200,000 square feet

of additional office space.

2. How will Croxley Rail link (CRL) impact your development?

CRL will enable us to compete more effectively and widely with the town centre and beyond. It

will enable much better connectivity into Watford town and beyond, and we will be much more

likely to see inward investment.

We already subsidise the W30 bus link with the Town Centre but the connectivity is poor. At

peak times, the bus does not have enough capacity. We issued 400 passes to employees for this

bus in the last 12 months. The bus is well used, but it’s not enough. A fixed link from the station

will be transformational.

GE Money (one of our tenants) employs 1000 people at the Business Park, and need to organise

their own coaches to transport people to and from the town centre, which costs them £60-70k a

year.

3. What are the current key transport constraints?

Travel has a very car- centred orientation at the moment as public transport access is so poor.

4. What other key points would you like to add?

In Watford, people either want to be IN the town or OUT of it, and the Business Park is currently

not considered IN the town due to its poor public transport links. With the CRL, it will have much

more chance of being seen to be IN town.

Croxley Green Business Park has a green theme, with its car sharing scheme, bike scheme (100

free hire bikes) and bus service. It is trying to minimise car use where possible but public

transport is so poor. CRL will help achieve this.

5. Is there any way you could quantify the benefits?

Yes, we already see 400 staff using the W60 bus each day, so a large number of people will

transfer to the CRL and more staff on site will use it as they will switch to using rail due to its

convenience.

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

We have 150,000 sqft of vacant office at the moment, which equates to 1000 employees. We

already have 2500 on site. This could (and would) go to 3500 with CRL. The main barrier is

accessibility.

Sigma Pharmaceuticals plc

Bharat Shah

1. When did you locate to Watford?

Located in the North Watford Industrial Estate since 1982. The business started with 10

employees and now has around 400 employees. Of these 400 employees, 300 are based outside

of Watford and 50% of those access the premises using train, bus and London Underground. The

site was chosen for business as it is well located for distribution and has easy access to the

motorway network, however the immediate network poses to be an issue (reasons highlighted in

the point 2).


a) Accessibility- the Industrial Estate is quite far from any public transport connection and

hence everyone drives to the industrial estate. There is an issue of access for visitors,

employees and the distribution vehicles as the adjoining roads get very busy.;

b) The industrial estate is very busy and does not have adequate parking facilities;

c) The roads at junction between Colonial Way and Imperial Way are too narrow at certain

places to allow two heavy goods vehicles to pass side-by-side;

d) Watford Council have introduced double yellow lines on the Colonial Way / Imperial Way

adjoining the industrial estate which prohibit loading/ unloading on these roads. This is

reasonable however there are inadequate parking facilities within the estate to facilitate loading

and unloading of vans for distribution purposes;

e) The business occupies 9 buildings in one corner of the industrial estate and there is an

issue of drainage on the site. Watford council are aware of the situation but are not sure how to

alleviate the issue.

f) The morning distribution is fine as they load early in the morning, however the afternoon

distribution which occurs during 1300 to 1430 is very busy;

g) The visitors find how to get from the site to Watford High Street and Watford Junction

stations confusing;

h) Vicarage Road in the vicinity of Watford General Hospital is very busy during matches at

Watford FC;A train station near the hospital will be of great help

i) Virgin Trains stop at Watford Junction but the employees are unable to use them to

access Euston. It may be a ticketing issue but if Virgin trains are available, the train services to

London will be much more frequent and more people may prefer to use trains instead of private

vehicles.


Access for employees, visitors and distribution vehicles is limited due to limited road capacities

and parking within the industrial estate

Economic Impacts

AppendixA


As Q2- parking, capacity on industrial estate roads, inadequate access to train/ LUL facility


Yes, tremendously.


a) A better LUL connection would mean lesser people driving to the industrial estate and

therefore parking and road capacity would be available for purposes such as loading and

distribution.

b) A connection to Watford General Hospital would benefit employees and visitors of the

Hospital as well as ensure that some visitors to Watford FC will use the trains.

c) Better connection from Heathrow and South and Central London to Watford and to the

estate..

DDD Ltd

Paul Williamson – Head of Finance

1) When did you locate here?

In the early 1950s, DDD was previously at Fleet Street, in London. Probably located to be out of

London but still in a place with good communications.

2) What are the key issues affecting your business?

Regulations are the biggest issue. Also congestion – which affects the immediate area outside the

factory. Delivering and utilities use Rickmansworth Road to access the site, including some large

HGVs. The congestion along this road along with the constraints renders deliveries difficult.

3) What are the key ways in which transport affects your business?

Deliveries (as described above). Not really in terms of staff access as virtually all come by car or

even walk/cycle.

4) What are the key transport constraints?

Congestion for deliveries.

5) Could CRL help relieve these?

Yes.

6) How do you see CRL scheme benefitting you?

Yes, it will benefit us marginally, due to congestion relief caused by more using rail than road.

This will make deliveries easier.

There is another reason why CRL may benefit DDD Ltd. The factory is situated at the end of

Metropolitan Station Approach. The Metropolitan Station will close as a result of CRL. On the side

of the factory site, there is a strip of land (known as the ‘ransom strip’), owned by Transport for

London. DDD Ltd would like to have this land (to buy or lease for a long period), to use it for

reliving the vehicle access (currently over congested along Rickmansworth Road). If DDD could

have this land it would improve vehicle flow for the site and reduce the problems of vehicle

access. When CRL takes place, there will be changes and interest in this strip of land may

increase. CRL may ‘unlock’ this site, and TfL may be more ready to sell/lease it. TfL currently

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

have unfounded assumptions that DDD Ltd may use the land for housing. DDD Ltd only desire this

land for improving vehicle operations. DDD Ltd would like to speak to TfL and/or the County

Council to further this issue.

John Lewis

Julie Blake

1. Background and when did you locate to Watford?

Located at the current location for the past 21 years. There are 600 (FTE) employees based at

this location.


None at the Harlequin shopping centre;

Traffic into the town centre can be congested

More people have started walking due to rising fuel costs

The general economic situation


Train services are a lot quicker from Watford Junction to London

All delivery and distribution of goods


Not aware of any.

Would CRL help relive this?

Not applicable.


Could be beneficial for trade

Matthew Arnold & Baldwin LLP

Sue Metselaar


100 years ago.


Getting people with the right skills and recruitment. Matthew Arnold and Baldwin LLP draw on a

lot of recruits from central London, so robust links to London are important.


Access to the company for employees and clients.


Access from central London is good but it could be improved. If there were more rail options

than just the Watford Junction line, it would be better. The Metropolitan station is currently a

20-30 min walk from the company, which is too far sometimes.

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

Parking is also an issue – the company does not have much and it is expensive. If public transport

improved (with CRL), it would be easier to travel on this mode and not use a car, so parking

would be less of an issue. There is also the green issue (using public transport rather than the car

is better for the environment).


The CRL would be convenient, adding to the number of transport options. It would open up the

pool of employment even further. It would reduce the need to drive and therefore reduce the

strain on parking, and it would be better for the environment.

Hays

Colette Carney


Not sure but a long time ago.


Skills and transport.


Currently it’s hard to recruit for Croxley Business Park and Watford Business Park as they are

quite remote, with poor transport links.


Congestion in Watford Town Centre as well as high parking charges. Also poor access for some

parts of Watford, as mentioned above.

5) Could CRL help relive these?

Yes, CRL will attract more businesses into the area, if they see it has better transport

connections. It will make Watford more ‘recognised’ as a place, as this tends to happen when

stations are built. It gives the area more ‘oomph’.


I think the CRL will be really good for the Watford area including all the businesses. Several

businesses are moving out of the town centre into the Business Parks as Watford expands, and

this will help a lot as it will give them better access to these areas. It should give better local

access for local people, which is what we want.

Total

Robert Dunstone


Since the early 1990s.


Transport does affect our business – the ease of getting around and to our various stores and

offices across the country. Our locations need to be convenient and Watford is convenient.

Economic Impacts

AppendixA


There aren’t really any transport constraints, the workforce is capable of moving around the UK

well enough.

4) Could CRL help relive these?

N/A


CRL will enable staff who live on or around the Metropolitan line travel to work more easily. Its

currently a 20 min walk from the current Met station to our site, and this will be reduced in the

future if CRL is built.

Nat West

Steve Ronan


Located at the current location near Watford Junction since 1992. There are 30 employees

based at this branch.


None really- very luck being located at Watford.


90% of the employees drive to work- they only use public transport while going on meeting

towards London. Therefore not much affected by transport


There is no free parking in Watford. Other than that there are no significant concerns.


Not really. Location of the current office is near Watford Junction which already has good

transport connections.


No benefits at all. Office already best served with Overground and National Rail services.

People who wish to travel to London, already do so by taking rail services to Euston, walking to

Euston square and getting on the Met Line. This saves considerable amount of time.

Clydesdale Bank

Peter O'Gorman


Located on Clarendon Road since 1999. There are presently 18 staff members. The Clydesdale

Bank office is quite unique in terms of location. It is the only standalone office on Clarendon

road. all others are serviced offices. There are 15 car parking spaces within the premises and

these are fully utilised due to the nature of the enterprise.


a) Being a bank, there are many regulations that one has to deal with.

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

b) Transport is not much of an issue as people can access the Bank through back roads and

Woodford Roads and avoid the Ring Road.


Transport affects by restricting the ability to recruit the right people for the job


a) Congestion on local areas;

b) Due to the location of bus station near Watford Junction, several buses park on

Woodford road, some are private coaches to take commuters to the business parks to the north

of Watford;

c) Not enough road capacity, sometime the last 400 yards on Woodford Road may take as

long as 15 minutes to cross;

d) The number of pedestrians crossing Woodford Road can be quite high especially when a

train arrives at Watford Junction- it adds to the congestion on Woodford Road;


Yes. CRL will help in the business especially for staff who are going from Watford Junction

towards other side of Croxley.


a) A better LUL connection would mean easier access for some staff to get to work

b) Easier for customers to access the bank and additional facilities such as free use of board

rooms for meetings

c) More people using the CRL would mean that the road space would be cleared for

essential journeys only

Pharmasure

Terry Sullivan


Located at the current location for the past 6 years. There are 15 employees based at this

location. Planning to relocate either further into Watford or Hemel within 9 to 12 months.


There aren’t sufficient car parking spaces;

Poor public transport link to the present location;

All visitors either come by car or have to be picked up from Watford Junction;

Regulations affecting the industry, however that is regardless of location.


All employees travel by car and car parking is a major issue;

The situation is getting worse with the new developments being implemented and not enough

infrastructure provision;

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

Vehicle congestion on Tolpits Lane/ Moor Lane affects the general office related deliveries and

distribution trips;

Office related trips require a good access by vehicles and car parking is an issue.


There is no free parking in Watford. Other than that there are no significant concerns.


CRL would definitely help as it provides better accessibility and connectivity to the LUL and

mainline rail at Watford junction;

Will make more accessible for visitors;

Provides many more options for available stations.


Improve our position and provide better accessibility to public transport. Improve access to

visitors. Rail link will bring many people to closer proximity of public transport. CRL good for

Watford in general as it provides accessibility to majority of people working around the General

Hospital and Business Park.

VAL AD Property Group

Phil Oakley

1. Please tell me about your development site and your plans for it?

The site is 4.4 acres large and VAL AD leases it from Centros on a 42 year lease. Watford Borough

Council is the freeholder. The site is currently zoned for employment uses. However, VAL AD are

promoting the possibility of regenerating the site to house a mix of uses including food retail

and residential (509 homes) elements, including parking.

2. How long have you known about plans for CRL?

We have known about CRL since we took over the site, about 6 or 7 years ago. Our proposals for

the site are closely linked to CRL, which would act as an excellent catalyst for the regeneration

of the site.

3. What impact do you think CRL will have on your development?

CRL will breathe life into this area. This is an old, obsolete industrial site. The site is part of a

gateway into the economic sites of Watford, namely Croxley Green Business Park and Watford

Business Park. The CRL would be used by all the tenants on site, including the residential and

business, shoppers and commuters. There is a school behind the site, and school children will

also potentially use it. There is also a hotel next door which will find it useful because of its

linkage to the wider transport network.

4. Can you quantify any of these benefits?

Its difficult to put numbers to it but it turns the site from an old, obsolete site to one full of

opportunity. With Royal Mail leaving there will be around 800 jobs lost on the site. The CRL will

help bring regeneration to this gateway to the employment areas mentioned above as well as

facilitating other uses. It will give a great boost to the area.

Finally, without it, it will be an opportunity missed for regenerating a key underused asset.

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

Harlequin Shopping Centre

Michael Stevens

1. When did you locate here?

The Harlequin Shopping Centre was born out of an initial planning scheme from the 1960s,

entitled the MARS complex. Capital Shopping Centres (then Capital and Counties) took up the

MARS scheme and construction began in September 1988

The Harlequin opened in three phases:

The Harlequin opened the doors of its first phase in September 1990. The first phase was home

to the relocated Trewins – now John Lewis, 41 new stores, a food court and 600 parking spaces.

Phase two of The Harlequin opened in June 1991, bringing a further 49 shops and 900 parking

spaces to the heart of Watford. The last section of The Harlequin opened to the public in June

1992adding a further 55 shops, 700 parking spaces and extension links for Littlewoods, M&S and

Bhs.

The Harlequin is celebrating its 21st Birthday this September.

2. What are the key issues which affect your business?

The shopping centre itself is 730,000 sqft, but that doesn’t include the large shops which back

onto it, on the high street. If these were included it would equate to 1.2m square feet. This

serves a population of 80,000, which is evidently disproportionate. However, because the

shopping centre is supported by good connections (M25, A41, M1, M11) and rail (Watford Junction

WCML and Watford High Street (Overground), it works. It must be said that the current access by

Underground (Met) is a joke – one would have to walk 30 minutes to get to and from the station,

which is why we are so excited by this scheme (CRL). Key issues are access by road, but closely

followed by access by rail.


Before I came to work here, I had heard a lot about the congestion at the Harlequin centre and

around it. There is a strong perception of traffic congestion, but it is not, in reality, too much of

a problem. In my 10 years working here I have probably seen about half a dozen gridlocks. The

ring road is too close to the town centre, and there are 4 lanes of traffic, so when things do slow

down, one sees many red brakelights, and it *looks* like there is a lot of traffic, but the road is

very short so really there is not.

So, the ‘constraint’ of traffic congestion is a problem, but more because it is perceived as a

problem, rather than the reality.

4. Would CRL help relieve these issues?

This is why we are so excited about CRL, because it will ease this problem of perceived

congestion. It will get vehicles off the road and free up space. Westfield is one of our

competitors and it has excellent rail links, so it will enable us to compete better with them. Lots

of people now use public transport to go shopping as there are no congestion issues, no parking

issues. Except for the Christmas shop, as there is so much to carry.

5. How do you see CRL as benefitting you?

This goes back to the issue of perception. Lots of decisions are based on perception. If we can

show CRL will reduce congestion it will increase the popularity of Watford Town Centre as a

location. Watford High Street station is very close to the Harlequin shopping centre, and people

Economic Impacts

AppendixA

may, in future, see it as *the* station for the shopping centre, as with (example?). We recognise

that the numbers of people using rail are growing at a phenomenal rate and we want to make

use of this.

Finally, I would like to say we are totally supportive, and believe CRL will be good for Watford

and the perception of Watford, as well as the economic health of Watford.

Warner Bros

Clare Arnold & Dan Dark

1. How do you see the Croxley Rail link benefitting your business and your development?

Customers will be able to take the link from central London to Watford to meet our shuttle/bus

service to the Studio Tour when it opens next year. The rail link would offer a second transport

hub from a major London station, providing wider choice and greater convenience for our

visitors. There may be additional benefits around use of travel cards/Oyster etc.

2. Please tell me the reasons for Warner Bros location in this area and any plans for new

development?

Major new development plans for Studio and Studio Tour, please see website/planning

application for further details and economic benefits.

1. Roughly how many jobs the new site for Warner Bros will create?

Studio Tour approx 200+ full time and seasonal jobs, the Studio approx 40 full time jobs

2. What are the key constraints in the area (e.g. traffic congestion, access to skilled

employees, frequency of public transport, access to the site, etc?)

Lack of direct, regular and quick public transport links from Watford and Kings Langley station to

the Warner Bros. Studio Leavesden site.

3. Would the Croxley Rail link help with these?

Maximise public transport options to minimise car use to the Studio Tour.

4. How do you see the Croxley Rail link benefitting your business and your development?

Customer choice and convenience, minimises traffic volumes.

C:\DOCUME~1\psykes\LOCALS~1\Temp\Wd0000004.doc

Control Sheet

CONTROL SHEET

Project/Proposal Name Croxley Rail Link

Document Title Economic Impacts

Client Contract/Project No. Click here to enter text.

SDG Project/Proposal No. 22281105

ISSUE HISTORY

Issue No. Date Details

1 19 Aug 2011 First draft for comment

2 31 Aug 2011 Final

4 07 Sep 2011 Final incorporating additional client

comments

REVIEW

Originator Tom Higbee

Other Contributors Lucy Hayward

Review by: Print Client team

Sign

DISTRIBUTION

Client: Hertfordshire County Council

Steer Davies Gleave:

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