Economics Freedom of Hong Kong: Lessons and Challenges

Economics Freedom of Hong Kong:Lessons and Challenges

Kui-Wai LiCity University of Hong KongSeminar organizerRichard Charles Lee Canada Hong Kong LibraryUniversity of TorontoFebruary 11, 20131Gratitude Conveys To Organizer: Richard Charles Lee Canada Hong Kong Library.Sponsors: Hong Kong Economic & Trade Office, TorontoHong Kong Canada Business Association (HKCBA)Asian Institute, Munk School of Global Affairs, University of TorontoIn Depth Conference: student organization.2Why on HKs economic freedom?Externally:Absolute picture of the freest economy.As a reference to emerging/Asian economies.Is there a Hong Kong model?World opportunities given to HK. Internally:Falling skill to analyze economic issues in HK.Reiterate the appropriate use of economics as a solution. HK peoples ingenuity, enterprising, dynamism.3Index of Economic FreedomTen indicators grouped under 3 pillars:System: trade, financial, investment, and adherence to property right.Policy: fiscal, monetary, and size of government.Ethics: business, freedom from corruption, and labor.4The Hong Kong ModelLaissez faire: supply-driven strategy, pro-growth policies.Govt: provides needed positive assistance, taking a back seat, supportive approach.Promote civic freedom between ruler and ruled. Colonial govt acted as a referee in politics. Economic relativity: economic activities produce relative outcomes, absolute outcome activities become personal choices. 5-10-505101520196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008Water SupplyRestrictionNixon's ChinaVisitRiots in1967China's ReformEconomicRecoveryStock Market CrashPolitical Turmoil in ChinaDeng's SouthernTourIraq-US WarTransfer ofSovereigntyAsian Financial CrisisChina 's Entryto WTO911 AttackAfghanistan-US WarSARS /Iraq-US War /CEPAUS$ Depreciation /Visit Free Travel Scheme1973 Stock CrisisProperty BoomOil CrisisSino-BritishNegotiationsIndustrializationDevelopment as a Financial CentreRevitalization of Re-ExportsGrowth in ServicesPercentageYearBeijingOlympic /US FinancialCrisisMainlandEconomicIntegrationFigure 2.2 Hong Kongs GDP Growth Rates: 1962-20096Overall GDP performanceGDP volatility is asymmetric: volatility is low when GDP rises. Investment drives growth.Govt. spending not growth promoting.Volatility is high in housing and stocks.Financial market more in line with Tokyo and Singapore.Trade and consumption more in line with Taiwan. 7Total factor productivityMeasureable inputs: capital, labor, land.TFP indicates the sum of non-measureable input contributions: human capital, technology, efficiency, economies of scale, etc.Most convenient is to use the accounting approach. Can be calculated on both the aggregate and disaggregate basis.Economic freedom: allow openness and opportunities, should facilitate TFP growth.8

9TFP (%GDP) of Industries: 1983-2005Agri, fishing, mining, quarrying: 5.2 (0.2)Electricity, water & gas: -1.4 (2.34)Construction: 1.6 (4.96)Manufacturing: 5.1 (13.24)Whole/retail, im/ex, rest/hotel: 2.5(25.75)Fin, insur, real est, bus services: 1.0 (19.84)Transport, storage & com.: 0.9 (9.52)Comm,social & personal service: 0.5 (15.56)10

11TFP of SMEs (1983-2005)Industry: TFP% Total/SMEs/Non-SMEsManufacturing: 5.1/4.6/5.3.Retail: 1.5/0.7/1.4Import/export: 2.4/2.4/1.9Business services: 2.5/2.4/2.6All transport: 0.4/0.6/-0.412

Figure 6.1 The Mean Years of Schooling in Hong Kong: 1981-200613Table 6.11 Comparison of Education Attainments by Age Groups: 2007Attained Upper Secondary EducationAttained Tertiary Education25-6425-3435-4445-5455-6425-6425-3435-4445-5455-65AustraliaBrazilCanadaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyItalyJapan*S. KoreaMexicoNetherlandPolandSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUKUSAHong Kong6837877581698452847833738685862968885581479185908385689497398392919038758775703790808774865694923777909087266988646431867181638548826529718683852266894154227866655381346539186174748116618729341048323627241441351631193131113240224110564039412319545619373040351437403734105334432926144640163118313410324225321045303620251141211530132930 931401427 83924281723 92411 926122626 8253010OECD Average70797467562734292420Notes: * = The year of reference for the Attained Upper Secondary Education is 2003. = 2006 data.Sources: Education at a Glance 2009, OECD, Paris; Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong.14

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17TVGDP = total value of shares to GDP ratio.MCGDP = market capitalization to GDP ratio.TV_MC = stock market turnover to market capitalization ratio.Sample period: 1998-2004

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19Small government, large marketTotal public expenditure/GDP: highest in 2002 with 21.8%.Notably, social welfare has gone up from 5.4% in 1986 to 13.2% in 2009.More often with fiscal surplus than deficit, worst in 2001-2004 fiscal years.20

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23Table 12.1 Land Use in Hong Kong19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Total Area (square kilometers)1,0951,0961,0971,0981,0991,1001,1031,1081,1071,1081,1081,1081,1081,108Developed land (% of total area)15.9916.0516.3216.7520.9321.3621.6621.9523.6823.8423.2923.3823.5623.74 Residential5.305.295.385.466.106.186.176.056.967.046.776.776.776.86 Commercial0.180.180.180.180.270.270.270.270.270.270.270.270.360.36 Industrial1.001.001.001.001.731.731.721.902.262.262.172.172.262.26 Government, institution, community1.641.731.821.911.821.821.901.902.082.082.172.172.172.17 Transportation2.472.652.833.014.464.454.534.694.794.874.965.145.145.23 Open space1.461.461.551.551.821.821.811.811.901.991.992.082.172.17 Vacant land3.933.743.652.462.462.822.992.802.622.351.811.711.531.44 Other urban & built up areas1.182.272.272.272.532.802.983.163.073.163.25Non-developed land (% of total area)84.0283.9483.6983.2479.0778.5478.3378.0776.3276.1776.7176.6276.4476.26 Agriculture land7.037.036.846.656.376.186.076.416.596.596.146.056.146.14 Woodland/shrub land/grassland67.4967.4367.3767.3067.4267.1867.0066.8866.0365.7066.7066.7066.5266.34 Wetland0.000.000.000.000.550.550.540.900.450.450.450.450.450.45 Barren land4.024,014.014.012.182.182.181.350.810.810.810.810.720.72 Water area2.372.372.372.372.552.552.542.532.442.622.622.622.622.62 Temporary structures & other uses*3.113.103.102.91Notes:* = These classifications are unavailable after 2000. The figure for the total area in 2004 (1,107) is slightly larger than the figure of 1,104 reported in Hong Kong 2005, Informational Services Department, Hong Kong, due probably to definitional difference in different categories.Source: Planning Statistics, Planning Department, Hong Kong.24

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26Economic integration with mainlandChina/HK: absolute vs comparative advantage.HK: a reference to Chinas economic reform.HK: major investor, in early stage of reform.Visa-free, CEPA, Pan-PRD, 5-Year Plan.Marginalization? Catching up / overtaking?HK:market-led(expost);China:state-led(exante)Few discussed on implication to HK economy.27

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29Pre-1997 FeaturesShort-term investment behavior.Wealth promoting, rise in income.Inflation, negative interest rate, wage increaseDe-industrialization, fall in real economy.Speculations in stocks and real property.1998 financial crisis: real economy could not sustain the collapse of the nominal economy.30Post-1997 FeaturesYoung government: leadership challenged.Periodic crises: Asian financial crisis, health hazards, terrorist attacks and war, oil crisis, natural disasters, 2008 crisis, etc.Economic recession (1998-2005): prolonged economic weakness, fiscal deficit, collapse of property market.Stability and prosperity: challenged?31Challenges to HKs economic freedomInternal:Demand-driven vs supply-led strategy?Short-term, ad hoc solutions vs long-term insights?Property dominates: cart in front of the horse?Fiscal policy: welfare vs growth?Intervention vs assistance (private cost vs social cost)?

32More challengesExternal:External-led vs domestic-led economy? Or a dependent economy?Integration with mainland: win-win vs marginalization? Count the cost?

Political Economy:System-driven vs personality-driven?Result-led vs public opinion-led?Formalization vs informal economy?Conflicts in two systems: 2047 comes earlier?

33Economic Opportunities, butEconomic diversification & expansion: re-industrialization through CEPA (over 1,700 export items to mainland tariff free).Encourage physical investments, target CEPA.High cost: not a problem when consider the huge mainland market.Challenge: property price getting out of context, speculation=wealth increase, the most distorted sector. Stability in question!34Freedom is an EvergreenHKs economic freedom is a built-in, is an infrastructure.Creation of economic opportunities has to be sustainable.Relative outcomes preferable to absolute outcomes.Aim for comparative advantage, avoid absolute disadvantage.35Summarize in Last sentence in the bookTogether with a reliable civic and economic system, the path of economic freedom in Hong Kong is the ability to generate new economic opportunities to help others to prosper.36Kung Hei Fat Choi!Wishing You All a Healthy and Prosperous Year of the Snake 2013Thank you!37

1981Working Population by Industry (Major Group) and Educational Attainment (Highest Level Attained) 1981Education AttainmentAGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotalNo schooling/Kindergarten/Pre-Primary238052051009606422396255687140141562443084303269448Primary191646734483294110884761740517013675909529713418921244Lower Secondary293228623774528394143788436381148653496236036476101Upper Secondary17213321796053956285361181984942058494949336621541816Matriculation/Post Secondary/Polytechnic/Technical Institute/Tertiary:non-degree courses4051043808222888680244471281727806632952132180400University/Tertiary: degree courses2464420288109763991528947041318334894158397727Total482731644102500914932197490476108189205117288382350340932486736Years of SchoolingAGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal0-32380520510096064223962556871401415624430843032694484-919164673448329411088476174051701367590952971341892124410-1229322862377452839414378843638114865349623603647610113-141721332179605395628536118198494205849494933662154181615-17405104380822288868024447128172780663295213218040018-242464420288109763991528947041318334894158397727Total482731644102500914932197490476108189205117288382350340932486736Level of Educational AttainmentMid-Point of IntervalNumber of People x Mid-Point of Interval (Years of Schooling)12.04761041020192012844792411137428028312488616860653889627.01341484711313830328770619332121835749095253130667079939266448708311.5337183289273406832649476526101701443831199510570665694145475162414.024094464825144705538439950416547726918808189161329062926947585424516.566831716628353377521432204033762114814587991044368351782976600621.5528994643619223586137579328714101136283435750221340352101131Total Years of Schooling2515421572096533061794241824084473360619617881716913445001033385325125920Mean Years of Schooling5.29.69.412.09.29.910.414.611.69.810.1

1986Working Population by Industry (Major Group) and Educational Attainment (Highest Level Attained) 1986AGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotalNo schooling/Kindergarten/Pre-Primary204012878944518146375046511086326234454721214516Primary195752733450893535630621674826457314448903002786771123Lower Secondary42491332378113591395781187674612311473642011834527760Upper Secondary278420320980451242920418275662062747741395162870709097Matriculation/Post Secondary/Polytechnic/Technical Institute/Tertiary:non-degree courses46910551275351411060453602013244933101990973279811University/Tertiary: degree courses2247023730144267272508863912107755706511140966Total477028129466531772416426858991821036716996748616796952643273Years of StudyAGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal0-32040128789445181463750465110863262344547212145164-919575273345089353563062167482645731444890300278677112310-124249133237811359139578118767461231147364201183452776013-1427842032098045124292041827566206274774139516287070909715-174691055127535141106045360201324493310199097327981118-242247023730144267272508863912107755706511140966Total477028129466531772416426858991821036716996748616796952643273Level of Educational AttainmentMid-Point of IntervalNumber of People x Mid-Point of Interval (Years of Schooling)12.0408025615788810362927410093022172652468908144242903227.013702519112415623247454414341172374452011101136632100195025397861311.54886415302734827412974551471365821530415131940738312210916069240414.0389762842293725671736408856255858486886810468361953224401809927358516.577391733846038579811824907484403321787413951682835160554616882621.548161505510195310031446315393921374074531561197679109873030769Total Years of Schooling278221957696018262277981661832648554123430502480986627305810925629471142Mean Years of Schooling5.811.810.112.910.111.011.114.612.911.311.1

1991Working Population by Industry (Major Group) and Educational Attainment (Highest Level Attained) 1991AGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotalNo schooling/Kindergarten/Pre-Primary479811454137356994855462669310649622066Primary2278226363413785765896229468712316788572071Lower Secondary198824544221384906714526129775779484830817Upper Secondary204930359542107788636011798616439810411153905Matriculation/Post Secondary/Polytechnic/Technical Institute/Tertiary:non-degree courses58638124765585325915693931079475045181362University/Tertiary: degree courses299266824238631042245168753853391202168Total768121187851604197265686287168539123557682562389Years of StudyAGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal0-34798114541373569948554626693106496220664-9227822636341378576589622946871231678857207110-1219882454422138490671452612977577948483081713-1420493035954210778863601179861643981041115390515-175863812476558532591569393107947504518136218-24299266824238631042245168753853391202168Total768121187851604197265686287168539123557682562389Level of Educational AttainmentMid-Point of IntervalNumber of People x Mid-Point of Interval (Years of Schooling)12.095962290827471219896110925338621298124413227.015947544454389649994612721606226098611175164004497311.5228647662585315926357721683004848921361090669554396414.0286902050335629508921209040165180423015721457542154670516.596752720585492157542759811449851781126832432992473621.56434091467165130552240739711121620778729074346612Total Years of Schooling84571481956299701786731140464240098725885854978324296780Mean Years of Schooling11.010.411.611.714.813.59.99.5

1996Working Population by Industry (Major Group) and Educational Attainment (Highest Level Attained) 1996AGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotalNo schooling/Kindergarten/Pre-Primary1624510001250086846518318316726988868Primary1264217080014607966506346229439411397550219Lower Secondary138992780721764168448737793956308496619886Upper Secondary180441532082666991142101463872175299643988117Matriculation/Post Secondary/Polytechnic/Technical Institute/Tertiary:non-degree courses61210189657595133737831511132665047391327University/Tertiary: degree courses515581439467086251881015501409134592405281Total574867245440757239330974408686680048464443043698Years of StudyAGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal0-316245100012500868465183183167269888684-9126421708001460796650634622943941139755021910-1213899278072176416844873779395630849661988613-1418044153208266699114210146387217529964398811715-176121018965759513373783151113266504739132718-24515581439467086251881015501409134592405281Total574867245440757239330974408686680048464443043698Level of Educational AttainmentMid-Point of IntervalNumber of People x Mid-Point of Interval (Years of Schooling)12.03249020002500161369210366366321453817773627.08849474956001022553465542242354660758797793851533311.515984088978282028784971600.5434619.51099745977047128689414.02526174744912373378615989402049418304540613500213833638516.51009965312922.51253191.5556660.51371991.5186888983275.56456895.5621.51108497309471144234954154221833253029629.5987288713541.5Total Years of Schooling71604812780735.59530679.5414797762920749741059.5509026.540162033Mean Years of Schooling12.511.312.612.515.414.311.013.2

2001Working Population by Industry (Major Group) and Educational Attainment (Highest Level Attained) 2001AGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotalNo schooling/Kindergarten/Pre-Primary42407676514193552011653763913182617268246Primary510196713542087682051483706644235936113218278511193Lower Secondary229670927843435844831982899318947220123463241615470Upper Secondary8981151317704875558753085531265271678642367498401034066Matriculation/Post Secondary/Polytechnic/Technical Institute/Tertiary:non-degree courses134852524053094180999932840900110718171991428496992University/Tertiary: degree courses1874080602892118667796333878157171166338530496739Total140703803631381652424788385261936631252282283002023893222706Years of StudyAGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal0-3424076765141935520116537639131826172682464-951019671354208768205148370664423593611321827851119310-1222967092784343584483198289931894722012346324161547013-14898115131770487555875308553126527167864236749840103406615-1713485252405309418099993284090011071817199142849699218-241874080602892118667796333878157171166338530496739Total140703803631381652424788385261936631252282283002023893222706Level of Educational AttainmentMid-Point of IntervalNumber of People x Mid-Point of Interval (Years of Schooling)12.08480141353028218710402321075278263652214413649227.03570767249947814609477435103859046509425155279252619463578351311.52640480510670163950397155522803241071674543030141982527727077905414.012572161018447806825078225043197421771378235009633144861176014476924516.5222428588646835105129863416389126748501826847283785270628200368621.54021860173290621782551191676205728377337917735762671139510679889Total Years of Schooling1094264819446277723587328037021099400447221258358528119774773507944149929Mean Years of Schooling7.812.712.314.311.312.912.916.014.414.713.7

20062006 Population By-censusWorking Population by Educational Attainment (Highest Level Completed) and Industry [Sector], 2006Educational attainment (highest level completed)IndustryTotalAgriculture & fishingMining & quarryingManufacturingElectricity, gas & waterConstructionWholesale, retail & import/export trades, restaurants & hotelsTransport, storage & communicationsFinancing, insurance, real estate & business servicesCommunity, social & personal servicesUnclassifiedNo schooling1991-419711953361530446684032184688054195Pre-primary11-50-6819411540283-761P1191-747191846316215779273283-11752P2226-169729270758672339154853244619783P3478-428513553961260053473569119648943863P4194-3036106329180143718242987923029610P5261-559917667941430467734270119135750147P61399-2954010723158671363368842441270997319267572S1368-84223811050323682126998069167443880906S23421011825474151333453218025107442461970115774S378467440211754484941332286302343384109518466444739S481-945725873903850513823111842719876107972S578920974193533468722930641222831494642149971243929684Grade 1247-2432501725677519983624121494828848Project Yi Jin4-10382031331311156222929191010820S6 (1-year)28-494919732521449445167445325853867504S6 (2-years)10-357813816471286539357174128766442287S7 (2-years)44-13381435448339201152503452246188340153844Craft level (including apprenticeship)--8117459210106706371021-4815Craft level (Other)10-159-222546109240469-1755Dip/Cert (VTC/CITA)25-49073143146102534440884375481039486Dip/Cert (U/PCEU)--12818852532341491398445091815130Dip/Cert (Poly/ statutory/ approved Post-secondary Colleges)--249428511214765172149964777-20159Dip/Cert (Other colleges providing post-secondary courses)4-19138068950281827478943072918666Dip/Cert (Former Teacher)13-751950357852822393-3274Dip/Cert (Commercial)--561-134210579019491074-6613Dip/Cert (Nurse)--30-58952601338-1574Dip/Cert (Dental)--10-209-20123-182Dip/Cert (Dist. Learning)--791049256177486487-1544Dip/Cert (Others)13-22346168363882155430564811022330High Cert/High Dip (U/VTC)20369071732500917550787720906186376479902High Cert/ High Dip (Former Poly)10-2722385127553881909630549622022976High Dip/ Prof Dip (Other colleges)--11543954827941178331129921012026Sub-degree (HKIE)--206-704351903994394-5694Sub-degree (Nurse)--10-2924955971705-2145Sub-degree (Dental)--10--20-1068-108Sub-degree (Dist. Learning)--70-5035558318300-1151Other sub-degree (UGC)--2312060550274704852-2691Other sub-degree--16004948642131318320054291916314First Degree (HK)71-203481485749747155194877597891768343264132First Degree (Dist. Learning)--12048052231031426477156371016753First Degree (Others)1033618351703644748571166356082158295334210296Postgraduate (HK)10-308635881542214132453-5542Postgraduate (Dist. Learning)--30-813082187223-660Postgraduate (Others)10-192-62479169967641102530Taught Master (HK)10-361658417417084324816028179097050290Taught Master (Dist. Learning)--10134034620798293088236389766Taught Master (Others)59-332918313137468308217063104274042964Taught Doctor (HK)--1301064287684211547-2527Taught Doctor (Dist. Learning)--30-195828133105-373Taught Doctor (Others)10-2872514158017310912539-4846Research Master (HK)--292681439715201894268296579Research Master (Others)--377228398936814291460-4728Research Doctor (HK)--10102011562171674-1062Research Doctor (Others)--1281080235845851366-2488Other research degrees (HK)--40-307028100251-519Other research degrees (Others)--80-5414969331402-1085Total761616932506614335230227916217391285571378905425401833657362006AGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotalNo schooling/Kindergarten/Pre-Primary20020424711954041549847834072187518054956Primary27490449041537516201153105663837155112273541422727Lower Secondary149477642682609741301914429374762197150881574641419Upper Secondary9312011131639355711434303114003916737825875313771083894Matriculation/Post Secondary/Polytechnic/Technical Institute/Tertiary:non-degree courses167365056628522333113059849298114105164025622535600University/Tertiary: degree courses273364976532831862812033846780186471200742824627140Total76161693250661433523022791621739128557137890542540183365736Years of StudyAGRMQMUEGWCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal0-3200204247119540415498478340721875180549564-92749044904153751620115310566383715511227354142272710-1214947764268260974130191442937476219715088157464141913-14931201113163935571143430311400391673782587531377108389415-1716736505662852233311305984929811410516402562253560018-24273364976532831862812033846780186471200742824627140Total76161693250661433523022791621739128557137890542540183365736Level of Educational AttainmentMid-Point of IntervalNumber of People x Mid-Point of Interval (Years of Schooling)12.04004084942381080830996956681443750216010991227.01924303143281075936134080717039646626008578591137872959089311.5171818867390823000485249522015831078091715266173513266017376319414.01303428015584245509079959648024341960546234329236225421927815174516516.5275659483433947058384962215486781341718827332706413102638837400621.5587077410699487058540050225872671005770400912743159531771613483510Total Years of Schooling620872534452461521373328097031258431752638569218646132034525780547940746Mean Years of Schooling8.215.013.914.912.213.713.516.114.614.414.2

Chart210.10397565329.2363360179.417776331712.01607286365.397097415710.368581697111.63857721989.942294605414.638437009810.30492464669.40603483359.558534252112.17888374745.565381619610.51807520511.881155290710.144256170414.630113319610.5098701369.57885151939.70139593812.34390062515.714450270810.669724100112.128789316310.350320256614.621794362510.71889160419.75484335899.846392832112.51115338665.842035629910.823559458712.38158467610.560570199914.613480135710.93207011449.93406868919.993556847212.6806723275.968977537710.979612805112.639648945210.775091029314.605170636511.149488342710.116586918910.142920373112.85248815176.136383743311.13791611812.903091941710.993969500814.596865862210.794056337210.175401582310.310726601612.94271951656.248594200811.252121807413.013410083211.115498285514.630381937110.449955067910.234558175710.481309045413.0335843546.37645248711.367498536313.124671416711.238370465314.663974968710.116823324810.294058686910.654713634613.12508711146.504302186311.484058312213.236884006211.362600890414.69764513379.794311412810.353905115510.830987059313.21723226736.660309189911.601813265913.350055984611.488204574914.73139260939.482080784810.414099472511.01017678213.31002433166.817886069811.720775652513.464195554611.615196699114.76521757310.129913730810.591079916911.285229547913.4034678466.924351319611.878827473413.631939634311.803190958714.889245572110.82200779810.77106802211.567153595313.4975673847.195440177712.039010584813.801773558611.994227942615.014315407711.561386986310.95411490111.856120580313.59232755137.274498291412.201353726813.973723363812.188356897915.140435831512.351281900911.140272535512.152306447513.68775298587.431168543412.365886026614.147815410812.385627868815.267615668313.195143867811.329593790712.455891536713.78384835817.642921308712.532637004714.324076388712.586091709515.395863817213.294535473311.325789687412.422429545413.88061837157.794232487712.603501755314.345267808212.647156433615.51237993313.3946757411.321986861312.389057447813.97806776237.884982855112.674767204714.366490578712.708517429115.629777844413.49557030711.318185312112.355775002214.07620130027.956410767512.746435618614.387744746812.770176133715.748064224913.597224856211.314385039412.32258196814.17502378818.148526873912.818509275714.409030358912.832133991615.867245798313.699645111911.310586042612.289478104714.27454006298.07878469812.890990467114.430347461512.894392454315.987329339613.806779867411.483886803312.599367952714.39940264658.187138729313.00143178414.460670570813.058309814416.016567827913.914752444311.659842877812.917071941914.5253574318.165760622813.112819287714.491057399313.224310940916.045859789114.023569394611.838494950513.242787112714.652413978.454498593713.225161084414.521508080913.392422323216.07520532114.133237321512.019884329813.57671547414.78058190098.424423903813.338465349914.552022749913.562670787516.104604521614.243762879812.204052956413.919064128514.90987094528.537187132613.452740329914.582601540713.73508350116.1340574891

AggregateConstructionManufacturingElectricity, gas and waterAgriculture and mining and quarryingTransport, storage and communicationsCommunity, social and personal servicesWholesale, retail, import and export trades, restaurants, hotelsFinance, insurance, real estates, business servicesYears

Sheet5Highlighted in Blue: Calculated from Available Data from Census and Statistics DepartmentMean Years of SchoolingYearAGRMQEGWMUCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal19815.29.612.09.49.29.910.414.611.69.810.1198219831984198519865.811.812.910.110.111.011.114.612.911.311.11987198819891990199111.010.411.611.714.813.59.99.51992199319941995199612.511.312.612.515.414.311.013.2199719981999200020017.812.714.312.311.312.912.916.014.414.713.7200220032004200520068.215.014.913.912.213.713.516.114.614.414.2Exponential Growth Rate of Mean Years of SchoolingAGRMQEGW1981-19860.02250.04190.01351987-20010.01920.00480.00702002-20060.00940.03350.0087MUCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal1981-19860.01480.01820.02010.0143-0.00060.02060.02810.01971987-19910.01640.00580.01100.01020.00230.0085-0.0268-0.03241992-19960.02470.01690.01610.01340.00840.01240.02120.06611997-2001-0.0027-0.00030.00480.00560.00750.00150.05850.00752002-20060.02490.01520.01260.00850.00180.0021-0.00410.0078Tradable GoodsEstimated Mean Years of SchoolingNo of PPLMean Years of StudyNo of PPLMean Years of StudyTradable ServicesMean Years of StudyNon-Trad GdsMean Years of StudyNon-Trad ServsYearAGRMQEGWMUCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotalAGRMQAGR+MQAGR+MQAGRMQMANUTotal PPLAGR+MQ+MANUImp+ExpRestHotelsAir+water+ other trans+storage+commuFIRBTrad-servsConsEGWNon-Trad GdsWholesaleRetailLand TransCSPMean Years of Study19809.91808714111949880963872203705.4Non-Trad Servs19815.29.612.09.49.29.910.414.611.69.810.11614712111735886465929182865.619825.310.012.29.69.410.110.514.611.910.110.31600911531716290065965181265.7198216009115317161.590422964390065964.884719460997.968908191.968926318.3584229649.4806165355820555907.9687962.9611458824.97612282.9769.745787625757181411761298.03216765612071.232179727.232184051325.1619730.1619039013708.08204098.0810.92272354119835.510.412.39.79.610.410.714.612.110.410.51983144639981546177153824162855.8198314462.8443960086997.936263324615460.780659333277153.199824.19985541759023.773914440.773930725.7526593339.63140964221402129674.628149886.6281433899893.841153282.841227041566.57624270.5766609456.021154161063.704273151884.7353840264.96194601342.7477652.1616169111156.679172847.67911.6707288399706114872.15975483.15910684737.19611421.1969.9422414528597744124.40663898.40616588011445.72177325.72209271443.96322370.96319477013439.13208209.1311.150310701819845.610.812.59.89.810.610.814.612.410.710.71984127638421360663742679142856.0198412763.3261038589842.379522854713605.705626713663742.042679.04289894759330.502958277.502972562.2496267149.787339896717203311354.178183387.17815440710190.862164597.862238361573.17625409.1767213476.058169671119.822293761938.8163476229.416203511343.16682490.27816952311188.518180711.51811.7451543783686034527.79873130.79810543695.83811238.83810.1220100713581953840.8762035.8716535710913.562176270.562217491435.43423184.43420182913320.714215149.71411.395345956619855.711.312.710.09.910.811.014.612.611.010.91985118757551263163841679133106.1198511875.4604727919755.494634725612630.955107517663840.5883694413678.588369441384761553923.6845830221901538.684583022914848.2280599819.935287109419185212205.2662289152204057.2662289151490459481.9647701805158526.96477018243501549.101560964125899.10156096417623484.9610348759170871087.0430542995278841773.92804623913322211.3394408839199451268.863681044380687.135257342818085111505.4031376558192356.40313765611.9137335338663134218.709314669970531.709314669910975698.209019777511673.209019777510.3240901016607983867.855306098464665.855306098417436111092.5214485118185453.521448512228131451.320489128324264.320489128320540313067.3555616718218470.35556167211.611673807519865.811.812.910.110.111.011.114.612.911.311.11986113286501197861335648126266.2198611327.5292859477650.198540406211977.727826353961335.186111217648.18611121786561449686.1182299806915300.118229981927926.03216755110.08843365321622512411.2836833479228636.2836833481556788935.8946525898164613.89465259263251511.051187254627836.05118725468278475.1560010672174601002.2014712048293851686.69474406374072233.7322102375203131165.963257994484071.747684567619426111150.5532644738205411.55326447412.0525265445708084064.368944620274872.368944620211219643.968975111511862.968975111510.4907817076562743230.119449632259504.11944963221655789504.1532187369175082.153218737232111332.308038266624543.308038266620846811966.0330068224220434.03300682211.878875013219875.911.912.910.310.211.111.314.613.011.010.8198795105221003154330573106046.419879509.593390434521.807366358110031.400756792154329.7953222919572.795322291986794747625.7101238436915572.710123844926176.90620292810.264398571924016713178.3667934945253345.3667934941560628563.384139063164625.384139063281451544.363436287729689.36343628779111499.93587735184471012.2178827216339541863.11302596243772206.9759773202210811156.749888093191103.992651447321224311646.1299985079223889.12999850812.1636695281724803977.099373321476457.099373321411014604.356684571811618.356684571810.5404486483608193337.240711727864156.24071172781726639474.3089003283182137.308900328233811282.954752312724663.954752312721525211811.2388839152227063.23888391511.987581792419886.111.913.010.510.211.211.414.713.110.710.41988860344690495142754195896.519888602.7644163824445.76526076819048.529677150651426.6336880734540.633688073483707243374.1528073395880446.152807339890035.31617256310.437232587227844814428.2046238532292876.2046238531582728201.103266055166473.103266055322371670.408954128433907.408954128410869563.1936880734209221084.1051009174373111933.32594495414313223.4846238532231381198.9304954128101556.03985321123545212200.3017981651247652.30179816512.2609322525763403955.672660550580295.672660550510884563.970935779811447.970935779810.5838267362624713237.029431192765708.02943119271798999321.7390091743189220.739009174233081207.739302752324515.739302752322482811649.8031559633236477.80315596312.109110043219896.212.013.110.710.311.411.514.713.210.410.11989738039277724992652582976.719897379.9489651262391.61346460317771.562429729349926.479196504525.47919650479151942001.5774301348833520.577430135841817.61905636810.614203414431104516505.454261687327550.4542616871687378953.9482575006177690.948257501358521902.469244610937754.469244610912312653.3303955051237531260.4415923029394612093.97910469684384232.6348646763256581361.5295068121111169.91546399325479213520.4157026918268312.41570269212.3472704315694893687.400572876573176.400572876511182593.367485586311775.367485586310.686474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1524922.475924217716412355.7993165579189519.799316558242011687.82991612325888.829916123247971729.3962410686274451914.0734700218467433259.95759552665061352.9650512582314512193.4605467536144946.85290462942383329559.0271823548453392.02718235514.1678649174683064763.80770425673069.8077042568337581.44035414738918.440354147211.9715451184646934511.82929481269204.829294812121710215141.1615408512232243.161540851388082706.553588070841514.553588070841650829048.165890028445556.16589002813.934222020520048.014.014.713.211.813.413.216.114.514.514.0200423341622496134914326408.420042334.2042146302162.07497754452496.27919217461349.30426175143.3042617516526811475.3487380988176743.348738099179382.93219202413.170451379550328734945.6267417259538232.62674172618544912876.612218528198325.612218528254711768.573515188227239.5735151882260561809.1928668581280411947.0209233792528703671.01730391425503382.0996448542306462127.8985491915153053.22928819744744631068.3186791597478514.3186791614.2940859601612474252.672532869965499.67253286998128564.36596645018692.3659664512.1681747169708184917.232900105875735.232900105821844315167.5436527127233610.543652713381522649.07607677240801.076076771943515130214.6179461992465365.61794619914.028357727720058.114.514.813.612.013.613.316.114.614.414.1200521461492295128913724328.520052145.6826925164149.43373775382295.11643027021288.9144208038136.914420803816736711656.0927083333179023.092708333181455.12355940713.507832307351037235544.3029255319545916.30292553219390113504.0242833924207405.024283392283761976.215661938530352.2156619385277001929.1363770686266851858.4478058511570633974.09058067385655393.8363253546291522030.2593380615156440.77042700946442732344.5133643617496771.51336436214.4170778488544563792.528900709258248.52890070928002557.29058806158559.290588061512.3735796444691644816.851566193873980.851566193922192715455.8645759456237382.864575946374972611.437788120640108.437788120644680031116.9001182033477916.90011820314.121920383220068.215.014.913.912.213.713.516.114.614.414.2Estimated Mean Years of Schooling (in 1 Decimal Place)YearAGRMQEGWMUCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal19815.29.612.09.49.29.910.414.611.69.810.119825.310.012.29.69.410.110.514.611.910.110.319835.510.412.39.79.610.410.714.612.110.410.519845.610.812.59.89.810.610.814.612.410.710.719855.711.312.710.09.910.811.014.612.611.010.919865.811.812.910.110.111.011.114.612.911.311.119875.911.912.910.310.211.111.314.613.011.010.819886.111.913.010.510.211.211.414.713.110.710.419896.212.013.110.710.311.411.514.713.210.410.119906.312.013.210.810.411.511.614.713.410.19.819916.412.113.311.010.411.611.714.813.59.99.519926.512.113.411.310.611.811.914.913.610.110.119936.712.213.511.610.812.012.015.013.810.310.819946.812.313.611.911.012.212.215.114.010.511.619956.912.313.712.211.112.412.415.314.110.712.419967.112.413.812.511.312.612.515.414.311.013.219977.212.413.912.411.312.612.615.514.311.613.319987.312.514.012.411.312.712.715.614.412.313.419997.512.614.112.411.312.812.715.714.413.113.520007.612.614.212.311.312.812.815.914.413.813.620017.812.714.312.311.312.912.916.014.414.713.720027.913.114.412.611.513.113.016.014.514.613.820037.913.614.512.911.713.213.116.014.514.613.920048.014.014.713.211.813.413.216.114.514.514.020058.114.514.813.612.013.613.316.114.614.414.120068.215.014.913.912.213.713.516.114.614.414.2Estimated Growth of Mean Years of SchoolingYearAGRMQEGWMUCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal198119820.02280.04280.01350.01490.01840.02030.0144-0.00060.02080.02850.019919830.02280.04280.01350.01490.01840.02030.0144-0.00060.02080.02850.019919840.02280.04280.01350.01490.01840.02030.0144-0.00060.02080.02850.019919850.02280.04280.01350.01490.01840.02030.0144-0.00060.02080.02850.019919860.02280.04280.01350.01490.01840.02030.0144-0.00060.02080.02850.019919870.01940.00490.00700.01650.00580.01110.01030.00230.0085-0.0264-0.031919880.01940.00490.00700.01650.00580.01110.01030.00230.0085-0.0264-0.031919890.01940.00490.00700.01650.00580.01110.01030.00230.0085-0.0264-0.031919900.01940.00490.00700.01650.00580.01110.01030.00230.0085-0.0264-0.031919910.01940.00490.00700.01650.00580.01110.01030.00230.0085-0.0264-0.031919920.01940.00490.00700.02500.01700.01620.01350.00840.01250.02140.068319930.01940.00490.00700.02500.01700.01620.01350.00840.01250.02140.068319940.01940.00490.00700.02500.01700.01620.01350.00840.01250.02140.068319950.01940.00490.00700.02500.01700.01620.01350.00840.01250.02140.068319960.01940.00490.00700.02500.01700.01620.01350.00840.01250.02140.068319970.01940.00490.0070-0.0027-0.00030.00490.00570.00760.00150.06020.007519980.01940.00490.0070-0.0027-0.00030.00490.00570.00760.00150.06020.007519990.01940.00490.0070-0.0027-0.00030.00490.00570.00760.00150.06020.007520000.01940.00490.0070-0.0027-0.00030.00490.00570.00760.00150.06020.007520010.01940.00490.0070-0.0027-0.00030.00490.00570.00760.00150.06020.007520020.00950.03400.00870.02520.01530.01270.00860.00180.0021-0.00410.007820030.00950.03400.00870.02520.01530.01270.00860.00180.0021-0.00410.007820040.00950.03400.00870.02520.01530.01270.00860.00180.0021-0.00410.007820050.00950.03400.00870.02520.01530.01270.00860.00180.0021-0.00410.007820060.00950.03400.00870.02520.01530.01270.00860.00180.0021-0.00410.0078

Chart15.397097415712.01607286369.41777633179.2363360179.942294605410.368581697114.638437009811.638577219810.10397565325.565381619612.17888374749.55853425219.406034833510.144256170410.51807520514.630113319611.881155290710.30492464665.714450270812.34390062519.7013959389.578851519310.350320256610.669724100114.621794362512.128789316310.5098701365.842035629912.51115338669.84639283219.754843358910.560570199910.823559458714.613480135712.38158467610.71889160415.968977537712.6806723279.99355684729.934068689110.775091029310.979612805114.605170636512.639648945210.93207011446.136383743312.852488151710.142920373110.116586918910.993969500811.13791611814.596865862212.903091941711.14948834276.248594200812.942719516510.310726601610.175401582311.115498285511.252121807414.630381937113.013410083210.79405633726.37645248713.03358435410.481309045410.234558175711.238370465311.367498536314.663974968713.124671416710.44995506796.504302186313.125087111410.654713634610.294058686911.362600890411.484058312214.697645133713.236884006210.11682332486.660309189913.217232267310.830987059310.353905115511.488204574911.601813265914.731392609313.35005598469.79431141286.817886069813.310024331611.01017678210.414099472511.615196699111.720775652514.76521757313.46419555469.48208078486.924351319613.40346784611.285229547910.591079916911.803190958711.878827473414.889245572113.631939634310.12991373087.195440177713.49756738411.567153595310.77106802211.994227942612.039010584815.014315407713.801773558610.8220077987.274498291413.592327551311.856120580310.95411490112.188356897912.201353726815.140435831513.973723363811.56138698637.431168543413.687752985812.152306447511.140272535512.385627868812.365886026615.267615668314.147815410812.35128190097.642921308713.783848358112.455891536711.329593790712.586091709512.532637004715.395863817214.324076388713.19514386787.794232487713.880618371512.422429545411.325789687412.647156433612.603501755315.51237993314.345267808213.29453547337.884982855113.978067762312.389057447811.321986861312.708517429112.674767204715.629777844414.366490578713.394675747.956410767514.076201300212.355775002211.318185312112.770176133712.746435618615.748064224914.387744746813.4955703078.148526873914.175023788112.32258196811.314385039412.832133991612.818509275715.867245798314.409030358913.59722485628.07878469814.274540062912.289478104711.310586042612.894392454312.890990467115.987329339614.430347461513.69964511198.187138729314.399402646512.599367952711.483886803313.058309814413.00143178416.016567827914.460670570813.80677986748.165760622814.52535743112.917071941911.659842877813.224310940913.112819287716.045859789114.491057399313.91475244438.454498593714.6524139713.242787112711.838494950513.392422323213.225161084416.07520532114.521508080914.02356939468.424423903814.780581900913.57671547412.019884329813.562670787513.338465349916.104604521614.552022749914.13323732158.537187132614.909870945213.919064128512.204052956413.73508350113.452740329916.134057489114.582601540714.2437628798

Agriculture and Mining & QuarryingElectricity, gas and waterManufacturingConstructionWholesale, retail, import and export trades, restaurants, hotelsTransport, storage and communicationsFinance, insurance, real estates, business servicesCommunity, socail and personal servicesAggregateYearsMean Years of Schooling of Working Population of Economic Sectors Hong Kong 1981-2005

Sheet6Available Data from By Census ReportsEducation AttainmentYears of SchoolingMid-Point of IntervalNo schooling/Kindergarten/Pre-Primary0-32.0Primary4-97.0Lower Secondary10-1211.5Upper Secondary13-1414.0Matriculation/Post Secondary/Polytechnic/Technical Institute/Tertiary:non-degree courses15-1716.5University/Tertiary: degree courses18-2421.5Mean Years of Schooling (Calculated from data at Census Reports)YearAGRMQEGWMUCONSWRTRHTSCFIRBCSPUNCTotal19815.29.612.09.49.29.910.414.611.69.810.119865.811.812.910.110.111.011.114.612.911.311.1199111.010.411.611.714.813.59.99.5199612.511.312.612.515.414.311.013.220017.812.714.312.311.312.912.916.014.414.713.720068.215.014.913.912.213.713.516.114.614.414.2

Sheet4

Table 10 Summary of the SWOT Analysis of the Hong Kong Stock Market

Strength:1. World standard supervision and accounting policy.2. Sound regulatory framework.3. Information disclosure.4. Full of experienced talents.5. Free follow of capital.6. Simple tax system.Weakness:1. Over reliance on the support of Mainland enterprises. Need diversity.2. High overhead cost.

Opportunities:1. As a platform for Mainland enterprises to raise capital.2. Channel global fund to the Mainland market.3. Provider of financial services and investment products to Mainland.Threats:1. Facing competition from Mainland and overseas stock markets as they improve.2. Number of China enterprises raising capital in Hong Kong increased at a declining rate.

Table 3 Property-related Bank Loans (HK$ Million)

Year(1)HOS/PPS(2)ORP(3)BCD(1+2+3)PRLTotal LoansPRL/Total Loans (%)

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200813,66419,07721,62834,88639,93947,49450,62060,39974,22776,18990,524107,18799,21486,84976,54867,60359,76358,41057,174133,688180,113202,630233,145258,557301,715371,270480,401515,431532,370535,761539,723542,431529,389534,188539,192535,022564,127592,980108,112125,704144,533180,439249,112262,199333,032440,296416,226384,127398,365388,921378,879360,412386,488450,569491,783578,244686,793255,464324,894368,791448,470547,608611,408754,922981,0961,005,884992,6861,024,6501,035,8311,020,524976,650997,2241,057,3641,086,5681,200,7811,336,947690,228817,077909,9121,075,7771,258,5891,398,1931,637,1912,037,2781,960,3711,819,7921,861,4651,790,0631,743,0091,708,5211,792,3951,930,3161,974,0222,274,2842,524,08537.039.840.541.743.543.746.148.251.354.555.057.958.557.255.654.855.052.853.0

Notes: HOS = home ownership scheme; PPS = private participation scheme; ORP = other residential properties, BCD = building, construction, property development and investment; and PRL = property-related loans.Source: Annual Digest of Statistics, Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong SAR Government.