Economics 410Managerial Economics

Tuesday

September 7, 1999

Moral Hazard

Adverse Selection

Game Theory

• Asymmetric Information

• Moral Hazard

• Adverse Selection

I. Incentive Contracting

Game Theory

• Moral Hazard

I. Incentive Contracting

Game Theory

I. Incentive Contracting

What is “Moral Hazard?”

Post-contractual behavior (normally behavior adverse to the interests of the other party)

Examples of Moral Hazard

• Fire Insurance• Term Life Insurance (?)• Health Insurance• Economics 410

Examples of Moral Hazard

The Labor Market?

Tenure?

Shirking?

Game Theory

• Moral Hazard

• Adverse Selection

I. Incentive Contracting

Game Theory

I. Incentive Contracting

•What is “adverse selection?”

A choice made available to an entire group is

chosen only by those to whom it appeals

Game Theory

I. Incentive Contracting

The choice made is typically “adverse” to the

interests of the agent providing the choice

“adverse selection”

Examples of “Adverse Selection”

• Interest Rates on Loans• Health Insurance• Term Life Insurance• Wage Rates

So, What’s The Pointabout “Adverse Selection”

• Explains some economic phenomena that are otherwise not explainable– Excess loan demand at current rates– Not charging the highest rate possible

• Explains “universal” coverage concepts– Everyone in the firm in the health plan– Those who don’t need insurance subsidize those who do need

insurance– Insurance companies want all of your business because a bad

health risk might not be a bad fire insurance risk

• Incentive for “screening”– Members of USTA or Golf Associations

Game Theory

• Asymmetric Information

• Moral Hazard

• Adverse Selection

I. Incentive Contracting

Sometimes Hard To TellWhich May Be Operating

• Volvo Owners Have More Traffic Accidents– Moral Hazard?

– Adverse Selection?

• Commerce Students Get High Grades– Moral Hazard?

– Adverse Selection?

One More Game

The Prisoner’s Dilemma

Two Robbers Get Caught

Decision: Confess or Don’t Confess

Consequences

• If both confess, they each receive 10 year sentence

• If neither confess, they each get 3 year sentence

• If one confesses but not the other, the one who confesses goes free, but the other receives a 20 year jail term.

Possibilities

Confess

Don’t

Confess Don’t

3 yrs

10 yrs Free

20 yrs

20 yrs

Free

Significance of Prisoner’s Dilemma

• Individual’s maximizing behavior may lead to suboptimal results for the group

• Implications in biology and other fields

The End