Economics 246

STATISTICAL INFERENCE Summer 2017: Section A01

CRN#: 31214 Class Web Page - http://web.uvic.ca/~bettyj/246

INSTRUCTOR: Betty J. Johnson Tophat: Course code: 386759 Office: BEC 324 https://app-ca.tophat.com/e/386759

E_mail: bettyj@uvic.ca text: 1-(647)-931-6504

Office phone: 721-8547 MyStatLab Course ID: johnson58323

OFFICE HOURS: Wednesday 11:30 a.m.

Overview Economics 246 is the second building block of statistical analysis. Economics 245: Descriptive

Statistics, introduced elementary descriptive statistics (i.e. mean, median, mode, variance,

percentiles, etc.), techniques to analyze raw data (i.e. EViews applications) and basic probability

theory (cumulative density functions, probability density functions, integration, etc.).

Economics 246 launches into statistical inference.

This course introduces the statistical tools necessary to legitimately analyze and interpret data,

with emphasis on economic data and economic applications. Readily available personal

computers have created an atmosphere where misuse and misinterpretation of data is

commonplace. Hence, a proper knowledge and understanding of statistical concepts is crucial in

order to avoid inferential mistakes and inaccurate forecasts. At the conclusion of this course,

you will have achieved: 1) the skills necessary to critically assess statistical results and 2) the

development of a certain level of skepticism regarding commonly published economic theories

and statements.

Economics 246 is presented in two components. In the first half of the course, we will focus on

using sample measures to infer something about the characteristics of a population. Using sample

data, we undertake the task of estimating (quantitative) statements made about the population.

Through proper testing techniques, we can validate these statements.

In the second half of the course, we apply our inferential techniques to the linear regression

model. This model allows us to statistically examine relationships between economic variables.

We can then use the estimated regression relationship as a tool to quantitatively test economic

theories. This is known as econometrics. Hence, practical questions about economic phenomena

can be answered in a systematic, legitimate and appropriate manner.

Lectures Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday: 12:30 P.M.- 2:20 P.M. MacLaurin D288.

.

LABORATORY CLASSES: Laboratory classes are scheduled for this course. You need to register in a Laboratory section.

The Laboratory sessions cover formal classwork, with an instructor present, and they run all term.

Section CRN# Time Days Location TA B01 31215 2:30 pm Tuesday &

Thursday BEC Lab 170

B02 31216 3:30 pm Monday & Thursday

BEC Lab 170

B03 31217 4:30 pm Tuesday & Thursday

BEC Lab 170

TEXT:

Paul Newbold, William L. Carlson and Betty Thorne, Statistics for Business and Economics,

Eighth Edition (Pearson.), 2013. This text is referred to as NC&T in the following course

outline.) Other material that is handed out in class, such as assignments, solutions, etc. will be

available on the class web page.

GRADING: Assignments (3) using MyStatLab: 15%

Labs (10) Eviews: 10%

Weekly Wednesday Quiz: 5% (TopHat)

Term Test (1): 35% (2 hours).

Final Exam: 35% (2 hours)

The midterm and the final examination will be “closed-notes / closed book.” A formula sheet

will be provided for these exams. The formula sheet will be previewed with the examination

details before each test.

Course Material Assignments, assignment solutions and partial class overheads will be placed on the class web

page.

Course Outline

Topic 1: Sampling and Sampling Distributions: Chapter 6

Topic 2: Estimation: Chapter 7 & 8

Topic 3: Hypothesis Testing: Chapter 9 & 10

Topic 4: Simple Regression and Correlation Analysis: Chapter 11

Topic 5: Multiple Regression and Correlation Analysis (optional) Chapter 12

According to the University of Victoria Calendar http://web.uvic.ca/calendar

“A student may not attempt a course a third time without the prior approval of the Dean of the Faculty and the

Chair of the Department in which the course is offered unless the calendar course entry states that the course may

be repeated for additional credit. A student who has not received this approval may be deregistered from the course

at any point and may be asked to withdraw from his or her declared or intended program.”

In order to request permission to attempt this course for the third time, you must follow the instructions provided

under the link Repeating Courses at

http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/undergraduate/home/course%20policies/index.php

Failure to obtain permission will result in deregistration from the course.

UNDERGRADUATE COURSE POLICIES

Academic Integrity: Academic integrity requires commitment to the values of honesty, trust, fairness, respect, and responsibility. Students are expected to observe the same standards of scholarly integrity as their academic and professional counterparts. A student who is found to have engaged in unethical academic behaviour, including the practices described in the Policy on Academic Integrity in the University Calendar, is subject to penalty by the University.

Attendance: Attendance will be taken in every class using the Tophat application. If for some reason you are unable to purchase Tophat, please let me know. A student missing 5 or more lectures will NOT be permitted to write the final exam. Students are expected to attend all classes in which they are enrolled (Attendance Policy). Students who do not attend classes must not assume that they have been dropped from a course by a department or an instructor. Courses that are not formally dropped will be given a failing grade, students may be required to withdraw, and will be required to pay the tuition fee for the course.

An instructor may refuse a student admission to a lecture or laboratory because of lateness, misconduct, inattention or failure to meet the responsibilities of the course. Students who neglect their academic work, including assignments, may be refused permission to write the final examination in a course. Instructors must inform students at the beginning of term, in writing, of the minimum attendance required at lectures and in laboratories in order to qualify to write examinations.

Students who are absent because of illness, an accident or family affliction should report to their instructors upon their return to classes. Term Assignments and Debarment from Examinations:

Students are expected to complete all quizzes and assignments. Failure to complete

will disqualify the student from writing the final exam.

In some courses students may be assigned a final grade of N or debarred from writing final examinations if the required term work has not been completed to the satisfaction of the department. Instructors in such courses must advise students of the standard required in term assignments and the circumstances under which they will be assigned a final grade of N or debarred from examinations.

Undergraduate Grading Scale

Passing Grades Grade Point Value Percentage *

A+

A

A-

9

8

7

90 – 100

85 – 89

80 – 84

An A+, A, or A- is earned by work which is technically superior, shows mastery of the subject matter, and

in the case of an A+ offers original insight and/or goes beyond course expectations. Normally achieved by a

minority of students.

B+

B

B-

6

5

4

77 – 79

73 – 76

70 – 72

A B+, B, or B- is earned by work that indicates a good comprehension of the course material, a good

command of the skills needed to work with the course material, and the student’s full engagement with the

course requirements and activities. A B+ represents a more complex understanding and/or application of the

course material. Normally achieved by the largest number of students.

C+

C

3

2

65 – 69

60 – 64

A C+ or C is earned by work that indicates an adequate comprehension of the course material and the skills

needed to work with the course material and that indicates the student has met the basic requirements for

completing assigned work and/or participating in class activities.

D 1 50 – 59

A D is earned by work that indicates minimal command of the course materials and/or minimal participation

in class activities that is worthy of course credit toward the degree.

COM Excluded Grade N/A

Complete (pass). Used only for 0-unit courses and those credit courses designated by the Senate. Such

courses are identified in the course listings.

CTN Excluded Grade N/A

Continuing. Denotes the first half of a full-year course.

F 0 0 – 49

F is earned by work, which after the completion of course requirements, is inadequate and unworthy of

course credit towards the degree.

N 0 0 – 49

Did not write examination or complete course requirements by the end of term or session; no supplemental.

* The grading scale for the evaluation of course achievement at the University of Victoria is a percentage

scale that translates to a 9 point GPA/letter grade system. The 9 point GPA system is the sole basis for the

calculation of grade point averages and academic standing. Standardized percentage ranges have been

established as the basis for the assignment of letter grades. The percentage grades are displayed on the

official and administrative transcripts in order to provide fine grained course assessment which will be

useful to students particularly in their application to graduate studies and for external scholarships and

funding. Comparative grading information (average grade [mean] for the class), along with the number of

students in the class, is displayed for each course section for which percentage grades are assigned

Late assignments: Late assignments will not be accepted unless prior arrangement has been made with the course instructor.

ACADEMIC CONCESSIONS Make-up exams and Academic Concessions BEFORE final grades have been submitted Students may request deferral or substitution of a mid-term test or exam, or of other work which is due during the term, directly to the instructor before final grades have been submitted. These requests should be in writing and include supporting documentation from a health professional. Students who miss scheduled make-up exams must provide a medical note each time.

Academic Concessions AFTER you have submitted final grades: Students who have not completed all course requirements at the time of course grade submission are to be advised to obtain a Request for Academic Concession (RAC) form from Undergraduate Records. In these cases, a final grade of N should be entered when submitting grades and if a RAC is submitted by the student and approved by you and the Chair, Undergraduate Records will change the submitted grade to DEF. DEF grades can be changed on a grade change form when all course requirements are completed.

Policies

This course adheres to the Undergraduate Course Policies of the Department of Economics that deal

with the following issues:

Academic concessions

Academic integrity (plagiarism and cheating)

Attendance

Grading

Inclusivity and diversity

Late adds

Late assignments

Repeating courses

Review of an assigned grade

Students with a disability

Term assignments and debarment from examinations

Travel plans

Further information related to policies:

Examinations

Attendance at all scheduled examinations is mandatory. Consideration for missed examinations will be

given only on the basis of documented illness, accident or family affliction, and for no other reasons. In the

event of a missed final examination, students are advised to follow the procedures outlined in the

University Calendar: https://web.uvic.ca/calendar2017-05/undergrad/info/regulations/concessions.html#

Students are advised not to make work or travel plans until after the examination timetable has been

finalized. Students who wish to finalize their travel plans at an earlier date should book flights that depart

after the end of the examination period. There will be no special accommodation if travel plans conflict

with the examination.

Waitlist Policies

Enrolment limits are determined by classroom capacity. Instructors have no discretion to raise the

cap or admit waitlisted students. While waiting for enrolled students to drop, waitlisted students must

attend all classes and submit assignments according to the normal deadline.

Enrolled students who do not show up in the first three lectures may lose their seats. Enrolled students who

decide not to take the course are responsible for initiating their dropping out of the course, and are urged to

do so as promptly as possible out of courtesy toward waitlisted students.

Classroom Etiquette

Behave politely and professionally. Do not disturb or distract your fellow students or the instructor.

Academic Integrity

Please browse What is Plagiarism for the definition of plagiarism.

Language

English is the language of instruction at the University and for all aspects of this course. Dictionaries are

not allowed in examinations.

E-mail

You may contact me at my U Vic email address. Please include both your legal name (the name in the

university records) and course title in the subject of your email. Your V# (student ID) must be included

in the body of the email. Without such information, it is sometimes hard for the instructor to understand

the nature of your queries. Please avoid inappropriate nicknames, email ids and signatures. Text message

lingo should not be used.

You should contact me by email primarily on matters that relate to your personal participation, e.g. you have

a medical condition that prevents you from taking an exam. It is best to raise questions related to course

materials in class or in person during office hours. You may ask simple short questions via email; however, I

may answer directly or I may reply telling you that I will cover that in class or it is best to explain the

question in person. E-mail is a terribly inefficient way of communicating with these types of issues. General

administrative matters such as the arrangement and the format for the assignments or exams will ONLY be

discussed in class and no answers will be provided via email on these issues.

Repeating Courses (Be aware of the following policy regarding the repeating of courses. According to the

University of Victoria Calendar (http://web.uvic.ca/calendar2017-

05/undergrad/info/regulations/repeating-courses.html#):

A student may not attempt a course a third time without the prior approval of the Dean of the

Faculty and the Chair of the Department in which the course is offered unless the calendar course

entry states that the course may be repeated for additional credit. A student who has not received

this approval may be deregistered from the course at any point and may be asked to withdraw

from his or her declared or intended program.

In order to request permission to attempt this course for the third time, you must follow the instructions

provided under the link Repeating Courses at

http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/undergraduate/home/courses/course-policies.php

Failure to obtain permission will result in deregistration from the course.

Travel Plans

Students are advised not to make work or travel plans until after the examination timetable has been finalized. Students who wish to finalize their travel plans at an earlier date should book flights that depart after the end of the examination period. There will be no special accommodation if travel plans conflict with the examination.

Students with a Disability The University aims to provide equal opportunities and access for all students to enjoy the benefits and privileges of its classes and curriculum and to meet the syllabus requirements. Reasonable and appropriate accommodation will be made available to students with documented disabilities (physical, mental, learning) in order to give them the opportunity to successfully meet the essential requirements of a course. The accommodation will not alter academic standards or learning outcomes, although the student may be allowed to demonstrate knowledge and skills in a different way.

Students with disabilities seeking academic accommodation are expected to contact the Resource Centre for Students with a Disability (http://rcsd.uvic.ca/) as early as possible to avoid a delay in service, to initiate the process of determining and arranging appropriate academic accommodation in individual situations. In order to receive course-based and exam-based accommodations, instructors must be notified of student needs. For example, if a student requires additional time on exams, assistance with note-taking or a substitute assignment, the instructor needs to be informed. At the start of each academic term, students fill in a Memo to Professors Form and hand it in to the RCSD. Only instructors listed on the request form will receive a copy of this memo. The memo confirms that the student is registered with the RCSD and lists the accommodations to which the student is entitled and has requested. It is the student’s responsibility to introduce themselves to their instructors to discuss the contents of the memo and make any necessary arrangements to receive accommodations.

The memo’s collection, protection, retention and disclosure is governed by provisions of the B.C. Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act.

Policy on Inclusivity and Diversity The University of Victoria is committed to promoting, providing and protecting a positive, supportive and safe learning and working environment for all its members. S:\DEPT OF ECONOMICS\TEACHING PROGRAMS\Course Outline resources/Course Policies.doc

Last revised: July 2012

Course Experience Survey (CES) I value your feedback on this course. Towards the end of term, as in all other courses at UVic, you will have the opportunity to complete an anonymous survey regarding your learning experience (CES). The survey is vital to providing feedback to me regarding the course and my teaching, as well as to help the department improve the overall program for students in the future. The survey is accessed via MyPage and can be done on your laptop, tablet, or mobile device. I will remind you and provide you with more detailed information nearer the time but please be thinking about this important activity during the course.

Grade Submission:

Final grades are submitted electronically to the Chair for approval through the FAST program available on My Page” See http://registrar.uvic.ca/faculty/fast/index.html for

tutorials. The Chair will then submit the approved grades to Records. Grades should be received in Records 7 days after the final exam or, for courses with no exam, 7 days after the last day of class. If you are unable to meet this deadline and you have students in your class who will be graduating at the end of the term, you must submit the grades for those students ahead of time using an auxiliary grade sheet.

Term Assessment- Summer 2017

Week # Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

(1)

July 3

3 4

5

Class begins

6

7

(2)

July 10

10

Lab #1

11

Lab #1

12

13

Lab #2

14

Asmt 1 Due

(3)

July 17

17

Lab #3

18

Lab #3

19

20

Lab #4

21

(4)

July 24

24

Lab #5

25

No lecture

Lab #5

26

Midterm

27

Lab #6

28

Asmt 2 Due

(5)

July 31-

Aug 4

31

Holiday

BC Day

1

2 3

Lab #7

4

(6)

August 7

7

Lab #8

8

Lab #8

9 10

Lab #9

11

Asmt 3 due

(7)

August 14

14

Lab #10

15

Lab #10

16 17 18

Final Exam