Economic Update: US and Washignton Presented by Greg Weeks, PH.D

Economic Update: US and Washignton

Presented by

Greg Weeks, PH.D.Washington State

Employment Security Department

Labor Market and Economic Analysis

2008 IPMA ConferenceLake Chelan, WA

October 14, 2008

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, U.S.December 2000 = 100

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, WashingtonDecember 2000 = 100

0807060504030201Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics

110.0

107.5

105.0

102.5

100.0

97.5

95.0

110.0

107.5

105.0

102.5

100.0

97.5

95.0

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington

Difference - Period to Period Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands


20

15

10

5

0

-5

20

15

10

5

0

-5

Employment/Population Ratio: SeattleEmployment/Population Ratio: Washington less Seattle

Employment/Population Ratio: WashingtonEmployment/Population Ratio: U.S.

050095

72.5

70.0

67.5

65.0

62.5

60.0

57.5

72.5

70.0

67.5

65.0

62.5

60.0

57.5

Initial ClaimsETA 539 (Regular Benefits)

Claims Reported During the Week Ending 10/04/2008

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53

Week Number (DOL)

Nu

mb

er o

f C

laim

s

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: LMEA, ESD

Continued Weeks Claimed ETA 539 (Regular Benefits)

Claims Reported During the Week Ending 10/04/2008

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

85,000

95,000

105,000

115,000

125,000

135,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Week Number (DOL)

Nu

mb

er o

f W

eeks C

laim

ed

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: LMEA,

ESD

Unemployment Insurance: Exhaustion Rate: Washington%

Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims Applications: WashingtonNSA, Number

0807060504030201009998

40

36

32

28

24

20

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

Unemployment Rate, United StatesSeasonally Adjusted, %

Unemployment Rate, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, %


8

7

6

5

4

8

7

6

5

4

December 2000 = 100

Seattle-Everett-BellevueTacomaSpokane

Balance of State

08070605040302

116

112

108

104

100

96

92

116

112

108

104

100

96

92

All Employees: Manufacturing, U.S.Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands

All Employees: Manufacturing, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands


16000

15500

15000

14500

14000

13500

13000

310

300

290

280

270

260

All Employees: Mfg Nondurable Goods, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands

All Employees: Mfg Durable Goods, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands


88

86

84

82

80

78

220

210

200

190

180

Manufacturers' New Orders: Aircraft & Parts (U.S. )

Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $

08070605040302Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

Manufacturers' New Orders: Information Technology (U.S. )

Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $

08070605040302Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics

90000

85000

80000

75000

70000

65000

60000

90000

85000

80000

75000

70000

65000

60000

Construction Payrolls Share of Washington PayrollsSeasonally Adjusted

Construction Payrolls Share of Total U.S. PayrollsSeasonally Adjusted

050095Source: Haver Analytics

7.50

6.75

6.00

5.25

4.50

3.75

7.50

6.75

6.00

5.25

4.50

3.75

Private Construction: Nonresidential (U.S. )% Chg - Year/Year seasonally adjusted annual rate, Millions $

Private Construction: Residential (U.S. )% Chg - Year/Year seasonally adjusted annual rate, Millions $

0807060504030201Sources: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics, Census Bureau

40

20

0

-20

-40

40

20

0

-20

-40

Housing Starts: U.S. , Thousands of Units6-month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Housing Starts: Washington, Thousands of Units6-month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

08070605040302Sources: Census Bureau, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ /Haver Analytics

2250

2000

1750

1500

1250

1000

750

55

50

45

40

35

30

Real Disposable Personal Income% Chg - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Chg - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted

08070605040302Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics

8

6

4

2

0

-2

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Per Capita Personal Income, United StatesChained 2000 $

Per Capita Personal Income, WashingtonChained 2000 $

0807060504030201Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

36000

34000

32000

30000

28000

36000

34000

32000

30000

28000

Real Gross Domestic Product

% Change - Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

0807060504030201Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics

8

6

4

2

0

-2

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Consumer Confidence: PacificSeasonally Adjusted, 1985=100

Consumer ConfidenceSeasonally Adjusted, 1985=100

08070605040302Source: The Conference Board /Haver Analytics

140

120

100

80

60

40

120

100

80

60

40

Avg Hourly Earnings: Total Private% Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, $/hour

CPI-U: All Items % Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100


6

5

4

3

2

1

6

5

4

3

2

1

House Price Index, United States% Change - Year to Year 1980 Q1=100

Housing Starts, United StatesSeasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Thousands of Units

08070605040302Sources: OFHEO, CENSUS /Haver

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2.5

2400

2000

1600

1200

800

OFHEO House Price Index, Washington % Change - Year to Year NSA, 1980 Q1=100

OFHEO House Price Index, United States % Change - Year to Year NSA, 1980 Q1=100

050095908580Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight /Haver Analytics

30.0

22.5

15.0

7.5

0.0

-7.5

30.0

22.5

15.0

7.5

0.0

-7.5

Yield Curve: 10-Year versus Fed Funds Rate

10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant MaturityFederal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate

0807060504030201Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

3-Month Eurodollar Deposits, London Bid% p.a.

Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate%


7

6

5

4

3

2

1

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

4-Week Treasury Bills, Secondary Market% p.a.

1-Month Eurodollar Deposits, London Bid% p.a.


5.25

4.50

3.75

3.00

2.25

1.50

0.75

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy % Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100

CPI-U: All Items % Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100


5

4

3

2

1

0

5

4

3

2

1

0

Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate [Prior'82=Posted Price]$/Barrel

U.S. Retail Gasoline Price: Regular GradeAvg, Cents/Gallon

0807060504030201Sources: Wall Street Journal, Department of Energy /Haver Analytics

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

450

375

300

225

150

75

U.S. Retail Gasoline Price: Regular Grade1995=100

Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate 1995=100

08070605040302010099989796Sources: Department of Energy, Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics

800

600

400

200

0

800

600

400

200

0

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: WashingtonNot Seasonally Adjusted, %

Mortgage Foreclosures Started: U.S.Not Seasonally Adjusted, %

050095Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Conventional Subprime ARM Mortgages: Foreclosure Started: United StatesSA, %

Conventional Prime ARM Mortgages: Foreclosure Started: United StatesSA, %

0807060504030201009998Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics

8

6

4

2

0

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0

Composite Housing Affordability Index % Change - Year to Year Median Inc=Qualifying Inc=100

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States % Change - Year to Year $

0807060504030201009998Source: National Association of Realtors /Haver Analytics

22.5

15.0

7.5

0.0

-7.5

-15.0

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

Thank You for your time and attention!

Please call or email with any questions:

Greg Weeks

[email protected]

(360) 438-48804

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Economic Update: US and Washignton Presented by Greg Weeks, PH.D