Sustainable Bioenergy Production

and Use in Southeast Asia

16-17 November 2017Hanoi Viet nam

Economic Sustainability of Bioenergy

Production/Use

Nuengruethai Srithornrath

The Department of Agriculture Thailand

The Kingdom of Thailand

Geography:Lies in the heart of Southeast Asia

Latitude 5 ̊ 37’ north20 ̊ 27’ north

Longtitude97 ̊ 21’ East105 ̊ 37’ East

Neighboring countries:Myanmar (west and north) Laos PDR (north / northeast) Cambodia (southeast)Malaysia (south)

Agriculture 47 % Forest 32 %Others 21 %

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics 2016

Land Utilization

Agricultural Land Utilization (%)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics 2016

Rice

47%

Horticulture23%

Field Crops21%

Vegetable1%

Others8%

Production area under Rainfed & Irrigation(%)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics 2016

Irrigation20%

rainfed80%

Policy of the Minister

Reducing Costs

R&D on 11 Crops1. Sugarcane

2. Cassava

3. Oil palm

4. Corn

5. Soybean

6. Mungbean

7. Peanut

8. Sunflower

9. Sesame

10. Sorghum

11. Cotton

SugarcanePlanted Area 1.5 mil haProduction 106 mil tonsAverage Yield 69 tons / haFarm Value 2,824 mil $US

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics 2016

Khon Kaen 3, 80 U-Thong 3, 5, 8, 9, 84-10, 84-11,84-12,84-13 Suphan Buri 50 (juice cane)

CassavaPlanted Area 1.5 mil ha Production 32 mil tonsAverage Yield 22 tons / haFarm Value 2,245 mil $US

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics 2016

Rayong 5, 7, 9, 11, 72, 90,84-13

Oil palm

Planted Area 739,360 haHarvested Area 643,840 ha Production (FFB) 13 mil.tonsAverage Yield 19 tons/ha

Farm Value 1,664 mil.$US

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics 2016

Surat Thani 1 to 8

Sugarcane

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics 2016

Khon Kaen 3 Variety

Importance

2

3

4

1 Sugarcane and sugar production in Thailand is highly successful at the global and ASEAN levels

Sugar Industry has gained a higher sugar per ton of sugarcane, higher sale price of cane stems and higher amount of bagasse

the farmers received 2 benefit : sweetness is higher and increased productivity

The farmers gained higher marginal profit from the sale of sugarcane setts

Sugarcane Utilization

sugarcane

Sugar Factory

Sugar Molasses Bagasse Filter cake

electric

Paper

animal feed

ethanol

alcoholsSeasoning

powderother

Bio fertilizer

1 ton sugarcane = 100-110 kg sugar

1 ton sugarcane = 45-50 kg molasses 1 ton sugarcane = 280-300 kg bagasse

280-300 kg bagasse =100 kw electric power

Compose

other

other1 ton molasses = 260 liter ethanol

1 ton of sugarcane = 70 liter ethanol

Ethanol

Khon kaen 3 Sugarcane Utilization (1 hectare)

sugarcane

Sugar Factory

Sugar Molasses Bagasse Filter cake

electric

Paper

animal feed

ethanol

alcoholsSeasoning

powderother

Bio fertilizer

10 ton sugar 4.5 ton molasses 28 ton bagasse

10,000 kw electric power

Compose

other

other1,170 liter ethanol

7,000 liter

Ethanol100 ton sugarcane

60% Adoption Area in Thailand

16

Research project

Climate change,Drought, low yield

Plant breeding research projectcost researchers

Extension(DOA Seed production and Seed village)

cost

Adoption

ImpactBenefit analysis by Economic surplus

Recommendation for R&D

Recommendation for policy

researchers

New Varieties

17

Benefit of Khon Kaen 3

Benefits

- Farmer’s Income- Benefit of the Sugar Factories- Benefit of The DOA- Benefit of the Researchers

Costs

- Research project (12 years)

- Extension

Total cost = 1,618,702.47 $

Source : Impact Assessment of Sugarcane and Sugar Researches in Thailand, 2016

18

Benefit of Khon Kaen 3

NPV = Net Present Value (the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows)

BCR = A benefit-cost ratio (an indicator, used in cost-benefit analysis, that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project or proposal)

IRR = Internal rate of return (a metric used in capital budgeting measuring the profitability of potential investments)

Source : Impact Assessment of Sugarcane and Sugar Researches in Thailand, 2016

Khon Kaen 3 (R&D)

NPV (USD)BCR IRR(%)

1994 2016

Ex-Post Evaluation(1994-2016)

181,993,419.79 532,378,202.18 160.58 44

19

Conclude

Output : KK 3

Outcome

Benefit of Farmer,Sugarcane Factories, Doa and Researchers

Impact : NPV = 532,378,202.18 $

Source : Impact Assessment of Sugarcane and Sugar Researches in Thailand, 2016

Conclude

Benefit

CostR & D Time

USD/Year

Adoption time

Year

Thank you