ECONOMIC REPORT

of the HUDSON VALLEY

Second Quarter 2012

MARIST COLLEGE

Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Bureau of Economic Research

School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601

Edited by Leslie Bates

September 2012

This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau

The support of research assistant Cody Scalzo is acknowledged and appreciated.

While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors.

Hudson Valley Summary

The regional labor market and private-sector job count is beginning to improve albeit at a slow and uneven pace, with the southernmost counties—Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester—rebuilding their labor market at a faster rate than the counties of the upper Hudson Valley region—Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan, and Ulster. Regionwide, private-sector job creation continues to outpace new employment and is heavily weighted toward jobs with average wages at or below $34,000 per year. Job creation in the traditional “high-wage” sectors—average wages at or above $87,000 per year—continues to lag.

Year over year, the regional labor force, employment, and private-sector job count changed little, rising 0.9 percent, 0.25 percent, and 1.30 percent, respectively. In contrast, during the first eight months of 2012, the regional labor force increased 3.28 percent while employment and the private-sector job count advanced 2.16 percent and 2.13 percent, respectively. Intra-region, labor force participation, employment, and the private-sector job count in the lower Hudson Valley increased 3.89 percent, 2.80 percent, and 3.25 percent compared to 2.34 percent, 1.18 percent, and 0.15 percent in the upper Hudson Valley.

As has been the case in recent periods, the regional labor force has grown at a faster pace than the level of employment, resulting in an increase in the unemployment rate. Year over year, the regional unemployment rate advanced .66 percentage points from 6.94 percent in the second quarter of 2011 to 7.60 percent in the second quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate in the lower Hudson Valley advanced 0.56 percentage points from 6.47 percent to 7.03 percent while in the upper Hudson Valley the unemployment rate advanced 0.75 percentage points from 7.68 percent to 8.43 percent. Between December of 2011 and August of 2012, the regional employment rate increased 1.01 percentage points, rising from 6.87 percent to 7.88 percent. Relative to the inter-recession trough—an important benchmark—the region has recaptured 52.90 percent of the labor force lost to the recession, slightly less than 35.00 percent of the employment, and 82 percent of all private-sector jobs. As noted, the labor force in the lower Hudson Valley is recovering at a faster rate than the labor force in the upper Hudson Valley. As of August 2012, the lower Hudson Valley had recaptured 54.44 percent of the labor force lost to the recession and 37.62 percent of the employment compared to 49.42 and 38.08 percent in the upper Hudson Valley region. In contrast, there was no significant difference between the intra-regional rates of private-sector job recovery. As of the second quarter, the lower Hudson Valley had recovered 82.40 percent of all private-sector jobs lost, while the upper Hudson Valley had recovered 81.50 percent. On average, the Hudson Valley continued to outperform both the Long Island and Capital regions. Relative to the New York City region, the Hudson Valley has recaptured more employment but fewer private-sector jobs. As of June 2012, the New York City region had recaptured all jobs lost to the recession and had moved 38.00 percent above the inter-recession peak.

As of the first quarter of 2012—most current numbers—the average weekly private-sector wage, valued in

current dollars, in Westchester County at $1,401 ranked second highest in the state; New York County (Manhattan) ranked the highest at $2,764. Rockland County ($1,035) ranked fourth, Dutchess County ($946) ranked eighth, and Putnam County ($811) ranked 18th. Orange ($715), Ulster ($670), and Sullivan ($613) counties ranked 32th, 47th, and 56nd, respectively. Regionwide, the average weekly private-sector wage advanced 5.04 percent year over year, from $1,059 in the first quarter of 2011 to $1,112 in the first quarter of 2012. Statewide, the average weekly private-sector wage fell 1.83 percent, from $1,440 to $1,414.

Private-sector wages advanced in every county in the region with Ulster County posting the highest year- over-year increase at 6.93 percent, followed by Rockland and Sullivan counties at 6.54 percent and 5.11 percent, respectively. Public-sector wages also advanced with Sullivan County recording the largest year-over-year gain at 10.93 percent, followed by Putnam (8.93 percent) and Ulster (7.10 percent).

As of the first quarter of 2012, Westchester was the only county in the region wherein the AWW paid in the private sector was higher than the AWW paid in the public sector: the ratio of private to public was 100.53—$1.031 paid in the private sector for every $1.00 paid in the public sector. Across the balance of the region, the ratio of private to public ranged from a low of 62.03 in Sullivan County to a high of 93.03 in Dutchess County. Regionwide, the ratio of private to public was 93.1. Dependence on food stamp benefits continues to expand as more families in the Hudson Valley region fall below the official poverty level1. As of the second quarter of 2012, one out of every 10.2 residents— 224,854 persons—in the Hudson Valley received food stamp benefits compared to one out of every 10.9 residents—210,918 persons—in the second quarter of 2011. As of the second quarter, Sullivan County was the most dependent on food stamp benefits at one out of every 6.11 persons, followed by Rockland, Orange, and Ulster counties at one out of every 7.28 persons, one out of every 8.35 persons, and one out of every 8.78 persons, respectively. Putnam County was the least dependent at one out of every 41.80 persons, followed by Dutchess County at one out of every 12.49 persons and Westchester County at one out of every 12.41 persons. In New York State, one out of every 6.32 persons received food stamp benefits in the second quarter of 2012. In contrast, the number of persons dependent on Temporary Assistance benefits posted a slight decrease, falling from 34,043 in the second quarter of 2011 to 33,644 in the second quarter of the current year. Year over year, the number of residents dependent on Temporary Assistance benefits fell from one out of every 67.7 persons to one out of every 68.5 persons. As of the second quarter, Sullivan County was the most dependent on Temporary Assistance benefits at one out of every 32.47 persons, followed by Ulster and Orange counties at one out of every 49.62 persons and one out of every 51.31 persons, respectively. Putnam County was the least dependent at one out of every 675.22 persons, followed by Dutchess, Rockland, and Westchester counties at one out of every 100.31 persons, one out of every 92.48 persons, and one out of every 69.43 persons, respectively.

The market for single-family homes continues to improve albeit at an uneven pace. Year over year, the number of single-family homes sold rose 14.48 percent while the median selling price continued to decline. Overall, current housing values remain well below the peak valuations witnessed during the housing boom, with 30 percent declines the norm. For the first six months of 2012, the demand for both single and multifamily construction permits fell relative to the first six months of 2011. It is important to note that local area permit data is highly unreliable and is subject to revision.

1 U.S. Census: American Community Survey 2011.

Hudson Valley Labor Force

As of August, the region has recaptured 52.90 percent of the labor force lost to the recession and slightly

less than 35.00 percent of the employment. Year over year, labor force participation in the Hudson Valley region advanced nine tenth of one

percent (10,567) from 1,123,400 participants in the second quarter of 2011 to 1,134,000 in the second quarter of 2012. In the upper Hudson Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan, and Ulster counties—labor force participation advanced (3,800) from 441,200 to 445,000 while in the lower Hudson Valley— Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester—labor force participation advanced (6,767) from 682,200 to 688,967. Over the same 12-month period, labor force participation in New York State increased (71,734) from 9,490,633 to 9,562,367 while participation in the national (civilian) labor force posted a moderate year-over-year increase of 0.79 percent (1,216,667), rising from 153.63 million to 154.85 million.

Year over year, regional employment was little changed (2,633), rising from 1,045,367 jobs in the second quarter of 2011 to 1,048,000. Employment increased in the lower Hudson Valley (2,433) from 638,067 to 640,500 while employment in the upper Hudson Valley increased (133) from 407,332 to 407,4671. Over the same 12-month period, employment in New York State fell (5,733) from 8,744,167 in the second quarter of 2011 to 8,738,434 in the second quarter of 2012. Nationwide, employment advanced 1.61 percent (2.25 million) from 139.94 million to 142.19 million.

1 Numbers do not add up to total labor force and total employment due to rounding.

1,000,000

1,020,000

1,040,000

1,060,000

1,080,000

1,100,000

1,120,000

1,140,000

1,060,000

1,080,000

1,100,000

1,120,000

1,140,000

1,160,000

1,180,000

1,200,000

2008-072008-092008-112009-012009-032009-052009-072009-092009-112010-012010-032010-052010-072010-092010-112011-012011-032011-052011-072011-092011-112012-012012-032012-052012-07

Empl

oym

ent

Employment and Labor Force Participation Data: New York State Department of Labor

Labor Force Employment

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2008-07

2008-09

2008-11

2009-01

2009-03

2009-05

2009-07

2009-09

2009-11

2010-01

2010-03

2010-05

2010-07

2010-09

2010-11

2011-01

2011-03

2011-05

2011-07

2011-09

2011-11

2012-01

2012-03

2012-05

2012-07

Employment and Labor Force Participation Data: New York State Department of Labor

Year-Over-Year Change in Employment Year-Over-Year Change in the Labor Force

Page 1 of 11

Because the regional labor force increased at a faster rate than employment, the regional unemployment rate posted a year-over-year increase of 0.66 percentage points, from 6.94 percent in the second quarter of 2011 to 7.60 percent in the second quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate in the lower Hudson Valley advanced 0.56 percentage points from 6.47 percent to 7.03 percent while in the upper Hudson Valley the unemployment rate advanced 0.75 percentage points from 7.68 percent to 8.43 percent. Statewide, the unemployment rate increased from 7.87 percent to 8.60 percent; nationwide, the unemployment rate fell from 9.03 percent to 8.17 percent.

The Hudson Valley labor market is rebuilding at a faster pace than nearby competitor markets. During the first eight months of 2012, the regional labor force advanced 3.28 percent (36,600) compared to 2.56 percent (13,900) in the Capital region, 1.84 percent (26,700) in the Long Island region, and 0.61 percent (23,900) in the New York City region. Over the same period, regional employment advanced 2.16 percent (22,500) while employment in the Capital, Long Island, and New York City regions increased 1.83 percent (9,200), 0.75 percent (10,100), and negative 0.31 percent (11,100), respectively. Statewide, the labor force increased 1.55 percent (146,700) and employment increased 0.70 percent (60,700).

Hudson Valley Lower Hudson Valley Upper Hudson Valley

Periods December 2011-August 2012

Change in Labor

Force

Change in Employment

Change in UR

Change in

Labor Force

Change in Employment

Change in UR

Change in

Labor Force

Change in Employment

Change in UR

Dec 11-Jan 12 -3,000 -12,600 0.92% -1300 -6700 0.81% -1700 -5900 0.99% Jan 12-Feb 12 1,800 1,100 0.03% -1300 -1300 -0.88% 3100 2400 0.12% Feb 12-Mar 12 -1,900 4000 -0.52% -100 3300 -0.55% -1800 700 -0.64% Mar 12-April 12 5,300 6,800 -0.17% 4000 5000 0.35% 1300 1800 -0.16% April 12-May 12 10,600 4,800 0.45% 7800 4200 0.62% 2800 600 0.53% May 12-June 12 24,900 19,100 0.34% 16700 13200 -0.11% 8200 5900 0.43% June 12-July 12 13,900 11,900 0.08% 11900 10400 -0.26% 2000 1500 0.09% July 12-Aug 12 -15,000 -12,600 -0.10% -11400 -10400 -0.18% -3600 -2200 -0.29% YTD Change 36,600 22,500 NM 26300 17700 NM 10300 4800 NM YTD % Change 3.28% 2.16% 3.89% 2.80% 2.34% 1.18%

Regionwide, employment and labor force participation peaked in July of 2008—seven months after the start of the Great Recession—at 1,128,500 and 1,189,500, respectively, and reached post-recession lows in February of 2011—at 1,026,000 and 1,112,000.2 From peak to trough, regional employment contracted 9.08 percent (102,500) and the labor force contracted

6.52 percent (77,500). As of August, the region had recaptured

2 Revised numbers

Recapture Rate Region Labor Force Employment Hudson Valley Region 52.90% 34.73% Lower Hudson Valley Region 54.44% 37.62% Upper Hudson Valley Region 49.42% 30.08% New York City Region (a) 22.80% Long Island Region 42.06% 27.12% Capital Region 35.11% 24.23% (a) The labor force in New York City continued to grow during the Great Recession. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor; author calculations

Page 2 of 11

-2900-1400

3567-733

11002567

50331933

533-633

90669700

13366

-4300

Natural Resources, Mining and ConstructionManufacturing

Trade, Transportation and UtilitiesInformation

Financial ActivitiesProfessional and Business Services

Education and Health ServicesLeisure and Hospitality

Other ServicesGovernment

Total (Nonfarm)Total Private

Service-ProvidingGoods-Producing

Change in Hudson Valley Employment 2011.2 to 2012.2 Data: New York State Department of Labor CES series

52.90 percent (41,000) of the labor force lost to the recession and slightly less than 35.00 percent (35,600) of the employment. Regionwide, the lower Hudson Valley has recaptured 54.44 percent of its labor force and 37.62 percent of employment while the upper Hudson Valley has recaptured 49.42 percent and 30.08 percent, respectively. Overall, the Hudson Valley is outperforming neighboring labor markets.

Nonfarm Employment by Place of Work3

Year over year, employers in the Hudson Valley added 9,700 jobs. Public-sector employment fell 633.

Eighty-two percent of all private-sector jobs lost in the recession have been recovered.

Over the 12-month period ending in the second quarter of 2012, the regional job count advanced

0.10 percent from 904,733 in the second quarter of 2011 to 913,800 in the second quarter of 2012; the private-sector job count increased 1.30 percent from 736,133 to 745,833 while the job count in the public sector fell 0.38 percent from 168,600 to 167,967. As of the second quarter, one out of every 5.44 jobs in the Hudson Valley was in the public sector compared to one out of every 5.37 in the second quarter of 2011.

Year over year, the private-sector job count advanced in education and health (5,033), trade, transportation, and utilities (3,567), professional and business services (2,567), leisure and hospitality (1,933), and financial activities (1,100). Employment fell in natural resources, mining, and construction (2,900) and continued to decline in manufacturing (1,400) and information (733). Public-sector employment fell (633).

Within the Hudson Valley, the total job count advanced in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties), and the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County) and fell slightly in Sullivan County.

In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the overall job count advanced (6,500) from 566,033 in the second quarter of 2011 to 572,533 in the second quarter of 2012. For the period, the private-sector job count advanced (7,000), and the job count in the public sector fell (500). Job gains were recorded in the health educational services sector (3,867), the leisure and hospitality sector (1,967), the professional and business services sector (1,966), the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (1,400), and the financial activities sector (900). Over the same period, the private-sector job count declined in the natural resources, mining, and construction sector (1,967), the manufacturing sector (700), and the information sector (633). The job count declined (333) in the local government sector; however, local education added jobs (933). In the Poughkeepsie-

3 Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers, and the military.

Place of Work Series. The employment figures in this section are three-month averages.

Page 3 of 11

Share Recovered: Private Sector ∗ New York City 138.00 percent ∗ Capital Region 77.50 percent ∗ Long Island Region 75.70 percent

Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA, (Dutchess and Orange counties), the overall job count gained (767) to 252,400 in the second quarter of 2012 from 251,633 in the second quarter of 2011. For the period, the private-sector job count rose (333) while the job count in the public sector also climbed (434). Job gains were recorded in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (1,167), the education and health services sector (600), the professional and business services sector (500), and the financial activities sector (100). The job count declined in the leisure and hospitality sector (667), the natural resources, mining, and construction sector (767), the manufacturing sector (633), and the information sector (133). In the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County), the overall job count rose (1,867) to 63,167 in the second quarter of 2012 from 61,300 in the second quarter of 2011. For the period, the private-sector job count advanced (2,267). However, the public-sector job count retreated (400). Job gains were recorded in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (967), the leisure and hospitality sector (633), the education and health services sector (467), the financial activities sector (100), the professional and business services sector (67), and the information sector (33). The job count remained constant in the natural resources, mining, and construction sector, but declined in the manufacturing sector (67). The job count fell in both the local government and local government education sectors falling 400 and 300, respectively. In Sullivan County the overall job count declined (67). Of this total, the public sector shed (167) jobs; the private sector added (100) jobs.

The private-sector job count peaked in the third quarter of 2008 at 756,433 and reached a post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 697,233. As of the second quarter of

2012, 82 percent (48,600) of all jobs lost due to the recession (59,200) had been recaptured. Several sectors—the professional and business services sector, the leisure and hospitality sector, and other services sector—have created more jobs since the trough than were lost as a result of the recession. In contrast, the job count in both the information sector and the manufacturing sector continues to decline. As of the second quarter, the job count in the information sector was down 3,367 relative to the peak and 1,267 relative to the trough; the job count in the manufacturing sector was down 9,233 relative to the peak and 2,367 relative to the trough. Manufacturing as a share of total private-sector employment has fallen from 7.43 percent in the third quarter of 2008—peak private-sector employment—to 6.30 percent in the second quarter of 2012.

Change in the Job Count Since the Recession Low Recession Jobs

Lost Recovery Jobs

Gained Share

Recovered Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction (17,733) 2,767 16.77% Manufacturing (6,867) (2,367) -33.18% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (10,200) 11,033 85.97% Information (2,100) (1,267) -54.29% Financial Activities (5,267) 2,033 40.13% Professional and Business Services (10,200) 10,833 100.61% Education and Health Services * 10,067 8,134 NM Leisure and Hospitality (13,867) 14,933 165.32% Other Services (1,967) 2,500 122.97% Total Private (59,200) 48,600 82.10% * No cyclical job loss Data: New York State Department of Labor CES Series, author calculations.

Page 4 of 11

First-Quarter 2012 Average Weekly Wages4

Private- and public-sector wages post year-over-year increases.

Year over year, the Average Weekly Wage (AWW) in the private sector—valued in current

dollars—advanced in every county in the Hudson Valley region, with Ulster County posting the highest percentage increase at 6.93 percent, followed by Rockland and Sullivan counties at 6.54 percent and 5.11 percent, respectively. The smallest year- over-year increase occurred in Putnam County at 2.69 percent. Within the goods-producing industries (manufacturing, construction, and mining), the AWW increased throughout the upper Hudson Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Ulster, and Sullivan. Among these counties, Sullivan recorded the largest year-over-year increase at 9.74 percent, followed by Ulster (7.13 percent), Orange (5.33 percent), and Dutchess (3.12 percent). Across the lower Hudson Valley—Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam— the AWW increased in Westchester County (11.06 percent) and fell in both Putnam (4.59 percent) and Rockland (.24 percent) counties. As is typically the case, the highest AWW paid in the goods-producing industries during the first quarter of 2012 was paid in Dutchess County at $1,920, followed by Westchester County at $1,883.

Within the private service-providing industries, the AWW advanced throughout the region. Rockland County recorded the largest year-over-year increase at 8.95 percent, followed by Ulster (6.89 percent), Dutchess (5.30 percent), Sullivan (4.64 percent), Putnam (4.34 percent), Westchester (4.25 percent), and Orange (3.95 percent). Within these industries, Westchester paid the highest first-quarter 2012 AWW ($1,351), followed by Rockland ($948).

The AWW in the public sector rose throughout the Hudson Valley region, with Sullivan County recording the largest year-over-year gain at 10.93 percent, followed by Putnam (8.93 percent) and Ulster (7.10 percent). As of the first quarter of 2012, Westchester was the

4 Average weekly wage data was secured through a special request to the New York State Department of Labor.

Average Weekly Wages: First Quarter

Source: New York State Department of Labor: QCEW Series Private Government Goods Service Dutchess County

2008 $907 $942 $1,717 $695 2009 $888 $960 $1,712 $691 2010 $871 $963 $1,714 $687 2011 $905 $970 $1,862 $706 2012 $946 $1,016 $1,920 $744

Orange County 2008 $660 $955 $832 $637 2009 $662 $955 $825 $642 2010 $663 $998 $825 $645 2011 $686 $1,001 $843 $670 2012 $715 $1,065 $888 $696

Putnam County 2008 $763 $1,135 $955 $721 2009 $770 $1,142 $1,011 $717 2010 $761 $1,150 $960 $720 2011 $790 $1,152 $1,009 $751 2012 $811 $1,255 $963 $783

Rockland County 2008 $915 $999 $1,360 $815 2009 $908 $1,029 $1,429 $797 2010 $949 $1,046 $1,503 $842 2011 $971 $1,083 $1,531 $871 2012 $1,035 $1,130 $1,527 $948

Sullivan County 2008 $593 $875 $617 $592 2009 $593 $885 $598 $595 2010 $583 $884 $570 $587 2011 $583 $890 $571 $586 2012 $613 $987 $626 $614

Ulster County 2008 $593 $910 $816 $557 2009 $589 $914 $785 $560 2010 $582 $966 $761 $557 2011 $599 $951 $776 $574 2012 $640 $1,018 $832 $614

Westchester County 2008 $1,349 $1,165 $1,596 $1,316

2009 $1,235 $1,250 $1,531 $1,197

2010 $1,317 $1,258 $1,607 $1,286

2011 $1,334 $1,330 $1,696 $1,296

2012 $1,401 $1,393 $1,883 $1,351

Page 5 of 11

only county in the region where the AWW in the private sector was higher than the AWW in the public sector: the ratio of private to public was 100.53—$1.031 paid in the private sector for every $1.00 paid in the public sector. Across the balance of the region, the ratio of private to public ranged from a low of 62.03 in Sullivan County to a high of 93.03 in Dutchess County. Regionwide, the ratio of private to public was little changed, falling from 93.5 in the first quarter of 2011 to 93.1 in the first quarter of 2012.Over the most recent three-year period—beginning in the first quarter of 2010—the private-to-public ratio improved in Dutchess and Rockland counties and fell in Orange, Putnam, Orange, Sullivan, Ulster, and Westchester.

Ratio of Private- to Public-Sector AWWs:

The lower the number, the higher the level of public-sector wages to private-sector wages

Area 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dutchess County 96.30 92.55 90.43 93.26 93.03 Orange County 69.12 69.31 66.40 68.50 67.08 Putnam County 67.20 67.44 66.21 68.53 64.61 Rockland County 91.54 88.27 90.69 89.61 91.54 Sullivan County 67.79 67.04 65.95 65.46 62.03 Ulster County 65.17 64.40 60.21 62.99 62.89 Westchester County 115.77 98.81 104.66 100.31 100.53 Data: New York State Department of Labor: QCEW series, author calculations As of the first quarter of 2012—most current numbers—the average weekly private-sector wage,

valued in current dollars, in Westchester County at $1,401 ranked second highest in the state; New York County (Manhattan) ranked the highest at $2,764. Rockland County ($1,035) ranked fourth, Dutchess County ($946) ranked eighth, and Putnam County ($811) ranked 18th. Orange ($715), Ulster ($640), and Sullivan ($613) counties ranked 32th, 47th, and 56nd, respectively. Regionwide, the average weekly private-sector wage advanced 5.04 percent year over year, from $1,059 in the first quarter of 2011 to $1,112 in the first quarter of 2012. Statewide, the average weekly private-sector wage fell 1.83 percent, from $1,440 to $1,414.

Page 6 of 11

‐2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Qua

rter‐Over‐Qua

rter Cha

nge

Num

ber of M

onthly Recipients

Change in the Average Number of Monthly Food Stamp Recipients: Quarterly Data

Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits (Social Assistance)

Dependence on Social Assistance

Continues to Expand Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly food stamp

benefits advanced 1.04 percent (2,313), from 222,541 in the first quarter of 2012 to 224,854 in the second quarter of 2012. Every county in the region experienced an increase in the number of food stamp recipients, with Dutchess County experiencing the largest-level increase at 655; followed by Rockland (614), Westchester (451), Ulster (258), Orange (142), Sullivan (121), and Putnam (72). The largest percentage increase occurred in Putnam County at 3.10 percent, followed by Dutchess County at 2.82 percent. In New York State, the number of food stamp recipients posted a .45 percent (7,262) quarter-over-quarter increase.

Food stamp expenditures increased 0.47 percent from $31.47 million per month in the first quarter of 2012 to $31.62 million per month in the second quarter while the average monthly benefit decreased from $141.43 per recipient to $140.62 per recipient. As of the second quarter, one out of every 10.24 persons residing in the Hudson Valley were receiving food stamp benefits compared to one out of every 10.92 persons one year earlier. Sullivan County was the most dependent on food stamp benefits at one out of every 6.11 persons, followed by Rockland, Orange, and Ulster counties at one out of every 7.28 persons, one out of every 8.35 persons, and one out of every 8.78 persons, respectively. Putnam County was the least dependent at one out of every 41.80 persons, followed by Dutchess County at one out of every 12.49 persons and Westchester County at one out of every 12.41 persons. In New York State, one out of every 6.32 persons received food stamp benefits in the second quarter of 2012.

Across the Hudson Valley, the number of residents who received monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) benefits—which includes Family Assistance (FA)5 and Safety Net Assistance (SNA)6 —decreased from 33,896 in the first quarter of 2012 to 33,644 in the second quarter of 2012. Within 5 As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include (care for) a minor child. 6 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.

As of the second quarter of 2012: one out of every 10.24

persons in the Hudson Valley received food stamp

benefits; one out of every 68.46 received temporary

assistance benefits  

Page 7 of 11

the region, the number of TA recipients increased in Dutchess (164), Sullivan (80), Orange (20), and Putnam (7) and decreased in Westchester (488), Rockland (27), and Ulster (7). The largest percentage change occurred in Dutchess County with a growth of 5.83 percent followed by Putnam at 4.72 percent and Sullivan at 3.50 percent. Over the same three-month period, total TA expenditures decreased at 4.72 percent from the $14.47 million per month in the first quarter to $13.79 million per month in the second. The average monthly per-person SNA and FA benefits were $475.98 and $354.21, respectively, down from $490.47 and down from $374.45 in the first quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County is the most dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out of every 32.47 persons, followed by Ulster and Orange counties at one out of every 49.62 persons and one out of every 51.31 persons, respectively. Putnam County is the least dependent at one out of every 675.22 persons, followed by Dutchess, Rockland, and Westchester counties at one out of every 100.31 persons, one out of every 92.48 persons, and one out of every 69.43 persons, respectively. Year over year, TA recipients decreased 1.17 percent from 34,043 persons per month in the second quarter of 2011 to 33,644 persons in the second quarter of 2012. Over the same one-year period, the monthly expenditure for TA decreased 10.92 percent from $15.48 million per month to $13.79 million per month.

12.49

8.35

41.80

7.28

6.11

8.78

12.41

10.24

6.32

12.84

8.37

43.09

7.38

6.17

8.89

12.48

10.35

6.35

13.11

8.29

46.22

7.56

6.60

9.01

12.53

10.47

6.36

13.11

8.47

47.71

7.83

6.83

9.06

12.69

10.66

6.39

13.17

8.71

48.31

8.05

6.84

9.13

13.13

10.92

6.44

Dutchess County

Orange County

Putnam County

Rockland County

Sullivan County

Ulster County

Westchester County

Hudson Valley Region

New York State

Food Stamp Dependence: The Lower the Number, the Higher the

DependenceData: New York State RTDA, Author Calculations

2012.Q2

2012.Q1

2011.Q4

2011.Q3

2011.Q2

100.3

51.3

675.2

92.5

32.5

49.6

69.4

68.5

34.1

106.2

51.5

707.1

91.7

33.6

49.5

67.1

67.9

34.2

101.1

51.8

679.8

91.1

35.5

49.4

66.3

67.6

34.3

97.9

50.5

613.1

92.5

38.5

51.1

66.4

67.8

34.6

101.0

52.2

571.0

95.3

36.0

50.8

65.0

67.7

34.2

Dutchess County

Orange County

Putnam County

Rockland County

Sullivan County

Ulster County

Westchester County

Hudson Valley Region

New York State

Temp. Assistance Dependence: The Lower the Number, the Higher the

DependenceData New York State RSDA, Author Calculations

2012.Q2

2012.Q1

2011.Q4

2011.Q3

2011.Q2

Page 8 of 11

Home Sales, Prices, and Building Permits

Home prices continue to decline despite a year-over-year sales volume uptick.

Home values continue to decline albeit at a somewhat slower pace than witnessed in previous

periods. Year over year, Putnam County experienced the largest decline, falling 6.41, followed by Sullivan and Dutchess counties at 4.17 percent and 2.93 percent, respectively. Housing values posted a year-over-year decline of 2.08 percent in Rockland County, 1.80 percent in Orange County, and .60 percent in Westchester County. Ulster County, by contrast, witnessed a year-over-year increase of 7.67 percent. Overall, current housing values remain well below the peak valuations witnessed during the housing boom. Sales volume has begun to improve, rising 14.48 percent from 2,617 units sold in the second quarter of 2011 to 2,996 units sold in the second quarter of 2012. Ulster County recorded the largest increase in sales activity at 34.42 percent (95 units) followed by Putnam County at 31.15 percent (38 units), Westchester County at 16.73 percent (165 units), Rockland County at 11.45 percent (30 units), Dutchess County at 8.78 percent (39 units), and Orange County at 4.79 percent (18 units). The only county in the region to experience a decrease in sales volume was Sullivan County at 3.97 percent (a loss of six units).

Statewide, the median selling price of an existing single-family home was little changed, falling from $210,000 in the second quarter of 2011 to $209,000 in the second quarter of 2012. Over the same period, sales volume jumped 6.70 percent (1,471 units) from 21,950 in the second quarter of 2011 to 23,421 in the second quarter of the current year.

Continued uncertainty in the market for single-family homes in concert with tight credit and prolonged weak economic growth continues to place pressure on the demand for new housing. For the first six months of 2012, the demand for single-family construction permits fell 2.89 percent, from 589 construction permits with an average cost of $442,924 per permit during the first six months of 2011 to 572 construction permits with an average cost of $267,748 per permit during the first six months of 2012. Total construction costs in the first half of the year fell $107.73 million from $260.88 million in 2011 to $153.15 million in 2012.

Year-over-Year Change in the Median Selling Price of a Single-Family Home:

Data Source: NYSAR; author calculations Second Quarter Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester

2007 $0 -$11,150 -$35,777 -$10,000 $26,410 $16,250 -$2,000 2008 -$31,726 -$18,750 $0 -$50,000 -$48,500 -$6,250 -$25,050 2009 -$48,324 -$30,000 -$75,550 -$35,000 -$1,000 -$46,000 -$109,950 2010 -$2,258 -$20,000 -$17,700 -$5,000 -$4,000 $375 $40,500 2011 -$20,442 -$3,250 $13,250 -$30,000 -$14,000 -$20,375 $17,250 2012 -$7,250 -$4,450 -$20,500 -$8,000 -$5,000 $14,500 -$3,750

Percent Change in the Median Selling Price of a Single-Family Home Relative to Peak:

Data Source: NYSAR; author calculations County Peak

Date Peak

Median Price 2nd Qt

Median Price %

Change Dutchess 2006.Q3 $360,000 $240,000 -33.33% Orange 2007.Q3 $330,000 $242,300 -26.58% Putnam 2006.Q2 $435,777 $299,500 -31.27% Rockland 2005.Q3 $529,950 $377,000 -28.86% Sullivan 2007.Q2 $187,500 $115,000 -38.63% Ulster 2007.Q3 $265,000 $203,500 -23.21% Westchester 2007.Q3 $730,000 $619,000 -15.21%

Page 9 of 11

For the period, Orange County issued the largest number of single-family permits at 142, followed by Westchester and Dutchess counties at 90 and 51, respectively. Putnam County issued the least at 20. The largest year-over-year declines in the period occurred in Rockland and Dutchess counties at 27 and 18, respectively.

Similarly, the demand for multifamily permits posted a year- over-year decrease from 69 multifamily permits with 827 units during the first six months of 2011 to 48 multifamily permits with 377 units during the first six months of 2012. Year over year, the total budgeted construction cost in the first quarter dropped 42.00 percent ($31.37 million) from $74.68 million in 2011 to $43.31 million in 2012. However, the average cost per unit increased 27.22 percent ($24,585) from $90,307 per unit in 2011 to $114,892 in 2012.

Year Over Year, Single-Family Housing Permits: U.S. Census Bureau: *Preliminary Numbers

January-June 2012* January-June 2011 Area Permits Construction Costs Permits Construction Costs Dutchess 51 $15,621,040 69 $24,609,135 Orange 142 $27,413,732 127 $24,029,648 Putnam 20 $5,396,885 22 $7,266,759 Rockland 29 $10,171,266 56 $11,729,119 Sullivan 49 $9,094,883 39 $5,015,693 Ulster 42 $6,952,333 28 $5,385,752 Westchester 90 $40,102,399 88 $93,893,880 Hudson Valley 572 $153,151,861 589 $260,881,996

Multifamily Construction Permits January—March 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Preliminary Numbers County Town/Village Number of

Buildings Number of

Units Value of

Construction Permit

Average Construction Cost

per Unit Dutchess/Orange Kiryas Joel Village 10 106 $11,826,938 $111,575 Montgomery Village 6 39 $1,990,622 $51,042 New Windsor Town 3 49 $4,974,176 $101,514 Total 19 194 $18,791,736 $96,865 Rockland Ramapo Town 14 63 $6,305,966 $100,095 Spring Valley Village 3 6 $920,000 $153,333 Total 17 69 $7,225,966 $104,724 Sullivan Fallsburg Town 2 4 $162,666 $40,667 Total 2 4 $162,666 $40,667 Ulster Plattekill Town 1 2 $85,000 $42,500 Shawangunk Town 1 2 $250,000 $125,000 Total 2 4 $335,000 $83,750 Westchester Eastchester Town 1 10 $1,500,000 $150,000 New Rochelle 3 82 $13,462,687 $164,179 Port Chester Village 1 2 $200,000 $100,000 Somers Town 1 8 $986,301 $123,288 White Plains 1 2 $400,000 $200,000 Yonkers 1 2 $250,000 $125,000 Total 8 106 $16,798,988 $158,481

Page 10 of 11

Sales-Tax Collection

An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales-tax collection. Year over year, total sales-tax collection increased 2.99 percent, from $297.98 million in the second quarter of 2011 to $306.88 million in the second quarter of 2012. The largest year-over-year dollar increase occurred in Orange County at $4.75 million (7.98 percent), followed by Dutchess and Ulster counties at $1.88 million (4.85 percent) and $1.49 million (6.30 percent), respectively. Rockland County experienced a year-over-year decline of $342,360 (.81 percent).

Quarterly Sales-Tax CollectionData Source: New York State Department of Taxation and Finance

Office of Tax Policy Analysis

   2012.Q2 2011.Q2 2010.Q2 2009.Q2 2008.Q2 2007.Q2

Dutchess $40,623,907 $38,743,503 $39,477,391 $33,956,512 $37,500,353 $39,693,041

Orange $64,288,432 $59,535,635 $56,406,398 $53,551,603 $56,724,326 $55,573,197

Putnam $12,837,016 $12,333,367 $11,855,949 $11,371,196 $13,156,845 $11,668,367

Rockland $41,963,389 $42,305,749 $41,468,450 $41,378,574 $39,917,549 $42,906,630

Sullivan $8,318,381 $7,919,677 $8,487,915 $8,918,534 $8,895,137 $8,690,847

Ulster $25,213,590 $23,720,083 $24,201,456 $22,174,842 $24,421,036 $22,237,210

Westchester $113,637,011 $113,418,445 $112,996,212 $101,254,065 $116,957,617 $117,604,383

Hudson Valley $306,881,724 $297,976,459 $294,893,771 $272,605,326 $297,572,863 $298,373,675

4.85%

7.98%

4.08%

-0.81%

5.03%

6.30%

0.19%

2.99%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

-$2,000,000

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester Hudson Valley

Year- over- year change in dollars collected Year- over- year percentage change

Page 11 of 11