Economic Outlook - nceda.org · Economic Outlook. 3. Cases . Much of the world is now ‘re-opening.’ Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities. Linear Scale. Log Scale. 0

Economic Outlook

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior EconomistMay 21, 2020

Economic Outlook 2

U.S. Review

Economic Outlook

Quantifying theContraction

There were few obvious imbalances prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, which should help prevent the healthcare and economic crisis from becoming a financial crisis. The massive loss of income and wealth will take a heavy toll.

Notable Impacts

With the leisure & hospitality industry abruptly shut down, layoffs have soared. Job losses extend will beyond the hospitality sector, however, and unemployment is likely to spike to 20% + over the new few months.

What Kind of Recovery?

The abrupt shutdown of economic activity combined with the absence of imbalances in the most cyclical parts of the economy has given rise to hopes of a V-shaped recovery. We expect to see a “bouncing” swoosh.

Real Estate

Shutdowns implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19 wiped out economic growth in Q1 and led to massive output and employment declines in Q2. Efforts to re-open the economy are progressing slowly.

Commercial construction was fairly restrained this past decade. Most product groups were well balanced prior to the shutdown. Weaker household balance sheets and tenant creditworthiness will test apartments and retail.

Economic Outlook 33

Cases

Much of the world is now ‘re-opening.’

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Log ScaleLinear Scale

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan-21 Feb-14 Mar-09 Apr-02 Apr-26

Global Coronavirus Confirmed CasesMillions

Confirmed Cases: May-18 @ 4,771,938

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

Global Coronavirus Confirmed Cases

Confirmed Cases: May-18 @ 4,771,938

3

Economic Outlook 4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 May-20

Initial Jobless ClaimsMillions, Seasonally Adjusted

Initial Claims: May-09 @ 3.0M

Jobless Claims

33 million people have filed unemployment claims, over the past seven weeks, about 20% of

the workforce.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Economic Outlook 5

Employment

20.5 millions jobs were lost in April.


Economic Outlook 6

Employment

Every sector lost jobs, with leisure & hospitality hit the

hardest.


Economic Outlook 7

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate: Apr @ 14.7%

Unemployment

The BLS estimated the true unemployment rate is near 20%.


Economic Outlook 8

Temporary Layoffs

Of the 20M job losses, 18M were classified as ‘temporary’.

This will likely prove too optimistic, however.


Economic Outlook 9

Small Business

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index plunged in

March and April.

Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

NFIB Small Business OptimismOverall Index 1986 = 100

Small Business Optimism: Apr @ 90.9

Economic Outlook 1010

Small Business

Most small businesses report only being able to last for a couple months under current conditions.

Source: NFIB and Wells Fargo Securities

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

<1 Month 1-2 Months 3-4 Months 5-6 Months 7-12 Months >12 Months

How Long Can You Operate Under Current Conditions?NFIB Survey of Small Businesses, March 30

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

No Impact Negatively Positively

Has COVID-19 Impacted Your Business?NFIB Surveys of Small Businesses

10-Mar 20-Mar 30-Mar

10


Small Business Loans

The initial $349 billion in PPP loans was exhausted quickly. Congress has added $321 billion more.

Source: Small Business Association and Wells Fargo Securities

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

>$5M

$2M-$5M

$1M-$2M

$350K-$1M

$150K-$350K

<$150K

PPP Loans Approved by Loan Size% of Number of Loans

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

>$5M

$2M-$5M

$1M-$2M

$350K-$1M

$150K-$350K

<$150K

PPP Loans Approved by Loan Size% of Total Dollars Approved

11


Economic Growth

The sudden stop in economic activity is difficult to quantify. First-order effects include supply chain disruptions and demand destruction emanating from massive shutdowns throughout the

economy. Second-order effects will emanate from the financial disorder and weakening of corporate, household and public sector credit. Restarting growth may prove problematic.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Personal ConsumptionGDP

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q1 @ -4.8%GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 0.3%

Forecast

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

PCE - CAGR: Q1 @ -7.6%PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 0.4%

Forecast

12

Economic Outlook 13

Consumer Spending

Retail sales fell the most on record.


Economic Outlook 14

Industrial Output

As did manufacturing output.

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Economic Outlook 15

2007 to Present

1960

1969

1973

1980 1981

19902001

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Nonresidential Structures InvestmentPercent Change Since Start of Each Recession

Years Since Each Recession Began

CRE Investment

Overall building has remained relatively subdued this cycle.


Economic Outlook 16

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Completions as Percent of Inventory

Apartment Completions: Q1 @ 2.2%Office Completions: Q1 @ 0.7%Retail Completions: Q1 @ 0.4%Industrial Completions: Q1 @ 1.5%

CRE

Apartment had been seeing the most new construction.

Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities

Economic Outlook 17

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

CRE Vacancy Rates

Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 6.6%Office Vacany Rate: Q1 @ 9.9%Retail Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 4.7%Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 5.4%

CRE

Vacancy rates are likely to climb.


Economic Outlook 18

Apartment

The number of multifamily units currently under construction

will lead to an avalanche of new supply later this year and in

early 2021.

We expect an abrupt slowing in multifamily starts later this year

and in 2021.


0

30

60

90

120

150

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Apartment Supply & DemandVacancy Rate; Thousands of Units

Apartment Net Completions: Q1 @ 108.3K (Right Axis)Apartment Net Absorption: Q1 @ 65.4K (Right Axis)Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 6.6% (Left Axis)

Economic Outlook 19

Apartment

Rents have already begun to decline, particularly in markets that were previously the hottest.


-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Apartment Effective Rent Growth

Quarter-Over-Quarter: Q1 @ 0.5% (Right Axis)Year-Over-Year: Q1 @ 2.7% (Left Axis)

Economic Outlook

WY

WV

WI

WA

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

GA

FL

COCA

AZ AR

AL

0.2

-0.7

0.3

1.2

0.0

0.4

1.7

1.3

0.8

0.7

1.3

0.1

0.0

0.9

0.4

0.1

-0.4

1.8

0.2

0.5

0.5

1.0

0.8

-0.2

0.3

0.6

0.0

0.4

-0.2

0.10.1

0.5-0.4

2.1

0.2

1.0

1.1

0.9

-0.2

1.20.1

1.7 0.3

0.3

Population Growth by State – 2019

AK-0.5

HI-0.3

VT

RI

NJ

NH

MD

MA

DE

CT

0.0

0.5

0.2

0.1

Less than 0.0%

0.0%-0.5%

0.6%-1.0%

1.1%-1.5%

1.6%-2.0%

Greater than 2.0%

U.S. = 0.5%

1.0DC

20

Economic Outlook 21

MSA Domestic Migration

A handful of large urban areas accounted for a disproportionate

share of economic growth this past decade, with creative jobs clustering in urban areas. The

COVID-19 outbreak may challenge this growth model going forward but we suspect the trend toward urbanization

will retain strong momentum in the coming decade.


0 100 200 300 400 500

Columbus, OHOklahoma City, OK

Sacramento, CARiverside, CAPortland, OR

Jacksonville, FLSeattle, WARaleigh, NC

Nashville, TNOrlando, FL

Las Vegas, NVDenver, CO

San Antonio, TXCharlotte, NC

Atlanta, GAHouston, TX

Austin, TXTampa, FL

Phoenix, AZDallas, TX

Metro Area Net Domestic Migration: Top 20Cumulative Total in Thousands, 2010-2019


North Carolina

North Carolina largely avoided a major outbreak.

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

0

300

600

900

0

300

600

900

Mar-23 Mar-30 Apr-06 Apr-13 Apr-20 Apr-27 May-04 May-11

NC New COVID-19 Cases

Daily Figure7-Day Moving Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Mar-23 Mar-30 Apr-06 Apr-13 Apr-20 Apr-27 May-04 May-11

NC New COVID-19 Deaths

Daily Figure7-Day Moving Average

22


North Carolina

North Carolina driving appears to have recovered nearly all of its decline.

Source: Apple and Wells Fargo Securities

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

Jan-13 Feb-10 Mar-09 Apr-06 May-04

North Carolina MobilityApple Data

driving0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jan-13 Feb-10 Mar-09 Apr-06 May-04

Charlotte MobilityApple Data

driving transit walking

23


North Carolina

North Carolina’s economy was “strong” but losing momentum prior to COVID-19. Almost 900,000 jobless claims have been filed in the past eight weeks.


ClaimsEmployment Growth

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

North Carolina Employment GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-MMA

North Carolina: Mar @ 0.9%U.S.: Apr @ -3.5%

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jan-19 May-19 Oct-19 Feb-20

North Carolina Initial Jobless ClaimsThousands

May-09: 56,193

24

Economic Outlook 25

Small Business in North Carolina

890,000 small businesses in 2018 1.6 million small business employees, or 44% of total

employment in 2015 Health care & social assistance: 252,000 employees

(44% of total industry employment) Accommodation & food services: 233,000 (59%) Retail Trade: 154,000 (32%) Manufacturing: 154,000 (36%) Construction: 149,000 (84%)

9,400 small businesses exported goods in 2015, accounting for 26% of total exports

Source: Small Business Administration and Wells Fargo Securities

Economic Outlook 26

North Carolina


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

North Carolina Nonfarm EmploymentYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-MMA

WF Forecast

Economic Outlook 27

MSA Domestic Migration

Charlotte and Raleigh account for the vast majority of net

migration to North Carolina.

Much of Eastern North Carolina continues to lose population.


-50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Jacksonville

New Bern

Rocky Mount

Goldsboro

Greenville

Hickory

Burlington

Greensboro

Winston-Salem

Durham

Wilmington

Asheville

Raleigh

Charlotte

Net Domestic Migration by NC MSAThousands, 2010-2019

Economic Outlook 28

North Carolina Housing

Single-family permits were rising solidly.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

North Carolina Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Single-Family: Feb @ 52,968Single-Family, 12-MMA: Feb @ 50,835Multifamily, 12-MMA: Feb @ 19,251

Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968


CRE—Office

Charlotte had the fastest rising office rents in the nation prior to the outbreak.


Rent GrowthVacancy

7.5%5.7%

3.9%

3.1%

1.3%

3.0%

5.4%

4.2%

3.5%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Charlotte

Raleigh

Greensboro

Wilmington

Asheville

Richmond

Nashville

Atlanta

Greenville

Office Rent GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change

29

7.4%

5.4%

8.6%

2.9%

2.8%

6.9%

6.1%

11.5%

7.3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Charlotte

Raleigh

Greensboro

Wilmington

Asheville

Richmond

Nashville

Atlanta

Greenville

Office Vacancy RateQ4-2019


CRE—Industrial

Warehousing and distribution should remain fairly strong.


Rent GrowthVacancy

5.4%

4.3%

4.0%

4.9%

4.5%

5.6%7.5%

6.4%

4.0%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Charlotte

Raleigh

Greensboro

Wilmington

Asheville

Richmond

Nashville

Atlanta

Greenville

Industrial Rent GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change

30

6.2%

2.1%

3.4%

3.0%

3.3%

4.3%

3.7%

5.7%

6.0%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Charlotte

Raleigh

Greensboro

Wilmington

Asheville

Richmond

Nashville

Atlanta

Greenville

Industrial Vacancy RateQ4-2019


NC

All regions of North Carolina will see economic data deteriorate significantly.


UnemploymentEmployment

3.6%

3.7%

3.7%

3.8%

3.9%

4.0%

4.1%

4.2%

4.4%

4.6%

4.6%

4.8%

5.0%

5.9%

5.9%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Asheville

Virginia Beach

Durham-…

Raleigh

Myrtle Beach

Charlotte-…

Wilmington

Winston-Salem

North Carolina

Burlington

Greensboro-…

Greenville

Jacksonville

Rocky Mount

Fayetteville

Unemployment Rate by Metro

31

-2.2%

-2.0%

-1.1%

-0.9%

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.6%

0.9%

1.0%

1.2%

1.8%

1.8%

2.2%

2.8%

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Goldsboro

Rocky Mount

Greenville

Fayetteville

Greensboro-High Point

Asheville

Winston-Salem

Virginia Beach

Burlington

North Carolina

Jacksonville

Durham-Chapel Hill

Wilmington

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia

Raleigh

Myrtle Beach

Nonfarm Employment by MetroYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-MMA

Economic Outlook 32

Employment Growth by MSA


Asheville

Raleigh-CaryDurham-Chapel Hill

GreensboroWilmington

Myrtle Beach

SpartanburgJacksonville

Charleston

Hickory

Charlotte

Greenville, SC

Columbia

Winston-SalemAugusta

Fayetteville

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

3-M

onth

Ann

ualiz

ed P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Year-over-Year Percent Change

The Carolinas Employment Growth: March 2020

Population SizeLess Than 450K450 - 750KMore Than 800K

Economic Outlook 33

Unemployment Rates

Both states’ unemployment rates will surge in April.


2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted

South Carolina: Mar @ 2.6%North Carolina: Mar @ 4.4%U.S.: Mar @ 4.4%


South Carolina

South Carolina has received more than 410,000 jobless claims in the past six weeks.


ClaimsEmployment Growth

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

South Carolina Employment GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change of a 3-MMA

South Carolina: Mar @ 1.7%United States: Mar @ 1.4%

0

25

50

75

100

0

25

50

75

100

Jan-19 May-19 Oct-19 Feb-20

South Carolina Initial Jobless ClaimsThousands

May-09: 32,513

34

Economic Outlook 35

U.S. Economic Forecast

12020

2020

2018 2019 2020 20211Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Real Gross Domestic Product 1 2.6 3.5 2.9 1.1 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 -4.8 -24.7 6.7 4.4 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.3 -4.6 1.2Personal Consumption 1.7 4.0 3.5 1.4 1.1 4.6 3.1 1.8 -7.6 -30.0 19.4 6.0 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.6 -4.9 2.7Business Fixed Investment 8.8 7.9 2.1 4.8 4.4 -1.0 -2.3 -2.4 -8.6 -21.0 -9.3 3.1 3.0 5.2 4.9 4.9 6.4 2.1 -8.1 0.4

Equipment 6.6 3.4 2.9 7.4 -0.1 0.8 -3.8 -4.3 -15.2 -31.3 -10.8 15.0 4.6 4.6 4.0 4.0 6.8 1.3 -12.1 1.5Intellectual Property Products 9.7 11.9 4.1 11.7 10.8 3.6 4.7 2.8 0.4 -2.4 -2.8 -4.4 3.7 7.4 6.9 6.7 7.4 7.5 0.3 2.2Structures 12.1 11.0 -2.1 -9.0 4.0 -11.1 -9.9 -7.2 -9.7 -32.0 -19.0 -7.5 -3.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 4.1 -4.3 -14.9 -6.5

Residential Investment -5.3 -3.7 -4.0 -4.7 -1.0 -3.0 4.6 6.5 21.0 -36.0 -12.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 6.5 -1.5 -1.5 -3.3 -1.4Government Purchases 1.9 2.6 2.1 -0.4 2.9 4.8 1.7 2.5 0.7 1.4 -0.1 -2.1 -3.3 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 1.7 2.3 1.3 -1.4

Net Exports 2 0.0 0.7 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 -0.7 -0.1 1.5 1.3 2.5 -5.3 -2.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -1.0Inventories 2 0.1 -1.2 2.1 0.1 0.5 -0.9 0.0 -1.0 -0.5 -1.8 1.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.5

Nonfarm Payroll Change 3 234 211 153 172 139 159 203 210 -142 -9500 4250 800 500 300 230 130 193 178 -1148 290Unemployment Rate 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.8 17.6 12.1 8.1 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.3 3.9 3.7 10.4 6.6

Consumer Price Index 4 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.4 1.8 0.7 1.5

Quarter-End Interest Rates 5

Federal Funds Target Rate 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 1.75 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.96 2.25 0.25 0.25Conventional Mortgage Rate 4.44 4.57 4.63 4.64 4.28 3.80 3.61 3.72 3.45 2.90 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.15 3.20 4.54 3.94 3.05 3.102 Year Note 2.27 2.52 2.81 2.48 2.27 1.75 1.63 1.58 0.23 0.35 0.40 0.50 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 2.53 1.97 0.37 0.8010 Year Note 2.74 2.85 3.05 2.69 2.41 2.00 1.68 1.92 0.70 1.00 1.15 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.45 1.50 2.91 2.14 1.03 1.40

Forecast as of: May 13, 20201 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter 2 Percentage Point Contribution to GDP 3 Average Monthly Change4 Year-over-Year Percentage Change 5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages

Wells Fargo Securities U.S. Economic Forecast

ForecastActualForecastActual20212019 20202018

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities

Economic Outlook 36

Economic Outlook Group Publications

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economicsemail

A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary

Date Title AuthorsU.S. Macro

May-14 A Roadmap for the U.S. Labor Market BrysonMay-13 Could the U.S. Economy Be Facing Deflation? Bryson & SeeryMay-05 The Animal Spirits Index Sinks Further into Negative Territory IqbalMay-05 The BFI Outlook in the Current Cycle Bryson, Quinlan & SeeryApril-28 Our Labor Market Index Hit Its Lowest Level Ever in March Iqbal

U.S. RegionalMay-05 COVID-19 Crisis Hits New Jersey Vitner & DoughertyApril-24 Texas Economic Update: Oil Rout 2020 Vitner & DoughertyApril-22 Colorado Economy Takes Some Hits Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldApril-17 COVID-19 Shut Down Seattle's Red-Hot Economy in March Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldApril-17 California's Economy Succumbs to COVID-19 Cutback Vitner & Dougherty

Global EconomyMay-15 Keep Cautious and Carry On Bennenbroek & LicisApril-30 Economy Slumps, ECB Eases Modestly BennenbroekApril-29 Scandi Slump Pressures Policymakers Licis & BennenbroekApril-27 Crude Reality McKenna & LicisApril-27 Monitoring the International Impact of COVID-19 Bennenbroek & Licis

Interest Rates/Credit MarketMay-06 Treasury Refunding Highlights Pugliese & MathewsApril-30 Treasury Refunding Preview: Bills Barrage Continues Pugliese & MathewsApril-29 FOMC Meeting: Committee Ready To Do More, If Needed BrysonApril-28 Fed Expands Muni Purchase Eligibility Vitner & HonnoldApril-28 Fiscal Fallout from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Part III Bryson, Pugliese and Mathews

Real Estate & HousingApril-01 Commercial Real Estate Chartbook Vitner & Dougherty

March-26 COVID-19 Undercuts The Houseing Recovery Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldJanuary-09 Housing Chartbook: January 2020 & Outlook Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold

December-18 Commerical Real Estate Chartbook Vitner, Dougherty & HonnoldDecember-05 Housing Maintains Solid Momentum Headed into 2020 Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold

Recent Special Commentary

Economic Outlook

Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group

37

Jay H. Bryson, Acting Chief Economist …[email protected]

Mark Vitner, Senior Economist [email protected]

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]

Nick Bennenbroek, International Economist [email protected]

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist [email protected]

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician [email protected]

Sarah House, Senior Economist [email protected]

Charlie Dougherty, Economist [email protected]

Michael Pugliese, Economist [email protected]

Brendan McKenna, International Economist [email protected]

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Economic Outlook - nceda.org · Economic Outlook. 3. Cases . Much of the world is now ‘re-opening.’ Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities. Linear Scale. Log Scale. 0