Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FOR NORWEGIAN
INDUSTRY
GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN
4 April 2017
Agenda
Oil prices putting a brake on growth
– The economy has turned the corner in Norway…
– … and in other countries?
How far have the structural adjustments come?
2
Norway: The economy has turned the corner
0
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP mainland Norway.1) Volume. Annual growth. Percent
1) Projections for 2017-2020 from MPR 1/17.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
3
Oil investment and petroleum revenue spending
In billions of 2016 NOK. Average annual change
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2001-2013 2013-2016
Spending
Investment
4
Less room for growth in petroleum revenue
spending
Constant 2017 prices. In billions of NOK
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Structural non-oildeficit
4% of the GPFG
3% of the GPFG
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank 5
Monetary policy has also made a contribution
6
Key policy rate. Percent
Source: Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Projection, March 2017
Projection, March 2014
Key policy rate
Oil price and krone exchange rate
7
Oil price1) and import-weighted exchange rate index2)
1) Brent blend. USD/barrel.
2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
85
90
95
100
105
110
11520
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017
Oil price (left-handscale)
I-44 (right-handscale)
Improved competitiveness
Norwegian labour costs, relative to trading partners’ labour costs1). Index2)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Measured indomestic currency
Measured in acommon currency
1) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing.
2) Index 1995 = 100.
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements (TBU) and Norges Bank 8
Investment in mainland Norway picking up
Constant 2014 prices.1) In billions of NOK
1) Projections for 2017-2020 from MPR 1/17.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Other businessinvestment
Petroleum investment
Housing investment
9
Moderate growth internationally
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Global
Trading partners
Global GDP and GDP for Norway’s trading partners.1) Annual change. Percent.2)
1) Purchasing power parity weights are used for global GDP growth. Export weights are used for
trading partners.
2) Projections for 2016-2020 from PPR 1/17.
Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
10
Have rates abroad reached bottom?
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Money market rates and forward rates for trading partners.1) Percent
1) At 28 March 2017.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
11
Norwegian exports on the rise…
Annual change. Percent.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Exports frommainland Norway
Imports to Norway'strading partners
Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 12
… but remains weak for oil services
Annual change. Percent
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Exports frommainland Norway
Imports to Norway'strading partners
Exports from oilservice industry etc.
Other exports frommainland Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 13
Agenda
Oil prices putting a brake on growth
– The economy has turned the corner in Norway…
– … and in other countries?
How far have the structural adjustments
come?
14
Structural adjustments
Changes in employment between 2014 Q3 and 2016 Q4. In thousands of persons
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Other sectors
Public sector
Construction
Hotel and restaurant
Oil-related industries
15
Activity and employment in Norwegian
industries
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Industry in total
Other industries
Primary industry without refining
Food, beverages and tobacco industry
Shipbuilding and engineering industry
Gross product¹
Employment²
Percentage change between 2014 Q3 and 2016 Q4
1) Volume. 2) Number of persons.
Source: Statistics Norway 16
Investment in Norwegian industries
Percentage change between 2014 Q3 and 2016 Q4. Volume
Source: Statistics Norway
-50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90
Industry in total
Other industries
Primary industry without refining
Food, beverages and tobacco industry
Shipbuilding and engineering industry
17
Productivity growth
GDP per hour worked. Percent
0
1
2
3
4
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Advancedeconomies
Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway, The Conference Board Total Economy DatabaseTM and Norges Bank 18
Productivity growth in Norway
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Capital
GDP per hour worked. Percent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 19
Productivity growth in Norway
0
1
2
3
4
5
6 Education
Capital
GDP per hour worked. Percent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
20
Productivity growth in Norway
0
1
2
3
4
5
6 TFP
Education
Capital
GDP per hour worked. Percent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
21
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FOR NORWEGIAN
INDUSTRY
GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN
4 April 2017