Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges

John E. Silvia, Chief Economist

July 24, 2012

Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges Jackson Hole, Wyoming

Economics 2

Where Are We Now?

Source:

Five benchmarks for good decision making

Inflation Interest Rates

Growth

Profits The Dollar

Economics 3

Expectations for the Future

Wells Fargo vs. Consensus

How do we differ from consensus?

Sustained below-trend growth

Still cautious on the consumer

Still cautious on housing

State and local governments—still restructuring

Employment—cyclical and structural change

Economics 4

Current Economic Conditions

Economic Landscape

Where should we focus?

Domestic Economic Conditions

Soft Patch or Recession?

Inflation

Unemployment and Employment

Europe

Will there be a resolution?

How does it affect the U.S. domestic economy?

Elections and the Aftermath

What do the various win/lose possibilities mean for policy?

Fiscal Cliff

Economics 5

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q1 @ 1.9%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 2.0%

Forecast

What We Get Versus What We Expect

Sustained recovery in 2012, but still below historical

experience

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 6

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

Small Business OptimismOverall Index 1986 = 100

Small Business Optimism: Jun @ 91.4

Small Businesses

Small Businesses: A full recovery in small business

optimism is still distant

Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 7

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

ISM Manufacturing Composite IndexDiffusion Index

ISM Manufacturing Index: Jun @ 49.7

12-Month Moving Average: Jun @ 52.6

Manufacturing

Large, Global Businesses: Slowdown in manufacturing

Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 8

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Initial Claims for UnemploymentSeasonally Adjusted, In Thousands

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Jul-7 @ -14.6%

Initial Claims: Jul-7 @ 350.0 Thousand

4-Week Moving Average: Jul-7 @ 376.5 Thousand

52-Week Moving Average: Jul-7 @ 386.0 Thousand

Initial Unemployment Claims: Cyclical

Signaling continued, moderate job gains ahead

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 9

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Employment-Population Ratio16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted

Employment-Population Ratio: Jun @ 58.6

Employment: Structural

Structural Change: A much lower base to support

growth and spending


Economics 10

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

PCE - CAGR: Q1 @ 2.5%

PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 1.7%

Forecast

Consumer Spending

Subpar recovery suggests slower consumer spending and lower

state sales tax revenues


Economics 11

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Household Debt Service RatioAs a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

DSR: Q1 @ 11.0%

Household Finances: Rebalancing Debt Exposure

Debt service has returned to more sustainable rates

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 12

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Lowest 20

percent

Second 20

percent

Third 20

percent

Fourth 20

percent

Highest 20

percent

Income Growth by QuintilePercent Change from 1984 to 2010, After-Tax Income

Income Growth

After-tax income has increased the most for the lowest and highest income households

since the mid-1980s


Economics 13

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, Ex-AircraftSeries are 3-Month Moving Averages

3-Month Annual Rate: May @ -7.4%

Year-over-Year Percent Change: May @ 2.8%

New Orders

Signs of life appeared early in capital goods orders—now the

slowdown


Economics 14

Housing StartsMillions of Units

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

Forecast

Housing

Structural Challenge: What is the new sustainable

pace?


Economics 15

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Median New Minus Existing Sale PriceIn Thousands, Single-Family

12-Month Moving Average: May @ $60,925

Average From 1997 to 2006 = $18,705

Home Prices: Barrier to Recovery

The high inventory of discounted existing homes has led to a large price premium for

new homes

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 16

2.50

2.55

2.60

2.65

2.70

2.75

2.80

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08

Median Home Size vs. Average Household SizeSquare Feet; Number of Persons

Median Square Footage: 2011 @ 2,235 (Left Axis)

Number of Persons per Household: 2011 @ 2.58 (Right Axis)

Housing Demographics

Secular Shift? Households are living in smaller homes with more people since the recession, but longer-term

trends may win out


Economics 17

20.2

20.6

20.7

21.2

21.7

22.3

23.3

24.6

24.8

26.3

28.0

30.5

35.6

37.2

43.4

45.1

61.2

23.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Oregon

Washington

Colorado

Utah

New Hampshire

Virginia

Rhode Island

Ohio

Maryland

Idaho

Illinois

California

Michigan

Georgia

Arizona

Florida

Nevada

US

Negative Equity Mortgages - By StatePercent of Mortgages Outstanding

As of Q1 2012

Housing

Negative equity in homes has contributed to foreclosures and

reduced labor mobility

Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 18

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Commercial Real Estate Vacancy RatesPercent

Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 17.2%

Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 8.9%

Retail Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 10.8%

Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 4.7%

Commercial Real Estate

The recovery has been uneven across property types

Source: Reis, Inc., PPR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 19

Inflation & Interest Rates

Inflation Interest Rates

Growth

Profits The Dollar

Core Inflation

Monetary Policy

Yield Curve

Real Interest Rates

Wage-Price Spiral

Market Expectations

Key Drivers

Economics 20

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

U.S. Consumer Price IndexBoth Series are 3-Month Moving Averages

CPI 3-Month Annual Rate: Jun @ 0.8%

CPI Year-over-Year: Jun @ 1.9%

Inflation: Persistent Issue

Consumer price growth should not pose a large threat to

Federal Reserve policy in 2012


Economics 21

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Gasoline Consumption and Disposable IncomeMotor Vehicle & Other Fuels as a % of Disposable Personal Income

Percent of Disposable Income: May @ 3.3%

Impact of Gasoline Prices

Despite the recent decline, gas prices as a share of disposable

income remains historically high


Economics 22 22

Regional Impact of Rising Gasoline Prices

Gasoline Expenditures as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income – 2010

Greatest Impact

Large Impact

Moderate Impact

Low Impact

Lowest Impact

3.93% 5.86%

5.16%

6.28%

3.44%

5.58%

3.80%

5.02%

6.32%

4.91%

3.71%

5.36%

2.76%

4.92%

5.22%

4.77%

4.61%

5.26%

4.06%

3.69%

4.58%

4.14%

6.65%

4.39%

4.44%

5.66%

5.34%

5.30%

4.06%

4.69%

3.46%

4.66%

5.36%

3.87%

5.72%

4.58%

5.03% 5.66%

4.78%

5.35%

3.40%

5.01%

4.95%

4.82%

4.70%

1.07%

4.36%

3.38%

4.06%

3.60%

Gasoline Expenditures as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

6.64%

Economics 23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Aaa and Baa Corporate Bond SpreadsOver 10-Year Treasury, Basis Points

Baa Spread: Jun @ 340 bps

Aaa Spread: Jun @ 202 bps

Corporate Spreads: Positive for Issuance

Spreads have returned to a more normal level; bond issuance is

strong


Economics 24

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Markit CDX North America Invest. Grade IndexCredit Default Swaps on Investment Grade Entities

CDX Index: Jul-13 @ 111.88

Credit Default Swaps

Credit default swaps have settled at a higher range following the recession

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 25

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Inflation and the Real YieldPercent

5-Year Treasury Note Yield: Jul @ 0.6%

Median Inflation Expect. for 5-10 Yrs: Jul @ 2.8%

1996-2009 Average Median Inflation Expectation for 5-10 Years: 2.9%

Inflation vs. Yields: Negative Real Yields – Three Non-market Buyers

Inflation expectations exceed nominal returns

Source: Federal Reserve Board, University of Michigan and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 26

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Non-fin. Corporate Business: Corporate Interest As a Percentage of Pre-Tax Profits

Corporate Interest: Q1 @ 8.4%

Interest Expense

Interest expenses are declining amid the low-rate environment


Economics 27

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11

Corporate ProfitsAs a Percent of GDP

Rest of World: Q1 @ 2.3%

Domestic: Q1 @ 10.5%

Corporate Profits: Global Growth

Profits as a percentage of GDP are historically high and are

being boosted by profits earned abroad


Economics 28

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

S&P 500 Ex-Financials EPS GrowthYear-Over-Year

Earnings Per Share Growth: Q4 @ 6.7%

Forecast

Corporate Earnings

Earnings per share are expected to remain modest

Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 29

Credit

Business credit is poised to grow as standards are being relaxed and demand is rising

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Net Percentage of Banks Tightening StandardsCommercial and Industrial Loans

C&I Loans to Large & Medium Firms: Q2 @ -6.9%

C&I Loans to Small Firms: Q2 @ -1.8%


Demand Standards

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Net Percent of Banks Reporting Stronger DemandCommercial and Industrial Loans

Demand for C&I Loans to Large & Medium Firms: Q2 @ 31.0%

Demand for C&I Loans to Small Firms: Q2 @ 21.8%

Economics 30

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Federal Budget BalancePercentage of GDP

Budget Balance: Q2 @ -8.0%

Forecast

Fiscal Policy: Difficult Choices

The nation has entered uncharted waters in fiscal policy

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 31 31

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Real Government Consumption & InvestmentBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr % Change

Government Consumption & Investment: Q1 @ -4.0%

Government Consumption & Investment: Q1 @ -2.3%

Fiscal Policy: Restructuring Continues

The government sector continues to be a drag on GDP as state and local governments

restructure


Economics 32

9.8%

8.9%

8.7%

6.3%

5.1%

4.3%

3.0%

2.4%

1.8%

1.7%

1.4%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

China

India

Turkey

Indonesia

Brazil

Russia

South Africa

United States

Japan

Euro area

United Kingdom

GDP Growth Post-Recession Average Annual Percent Change for 2010 and 2011

Global Growth

The global recovery is being driven by emerging markets

Source: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 33

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Chinese Real GDP ForecastYear-over-Year Percent Change

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q2 @ 7.6%

Forecast

Chinese Real GDP

Although the Chinese economy has probably landed softly,

significant acceleration does not appear likely either

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 34

Eurozone

The European sovereign debt crisis has weighed on growth in the Euro area

Eurozone Real GDPBars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

Compound Annual Growth: Q1 @ 0.1%

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q1 @ 0.0%

Forecast

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Purchasing Mangers’ Indices Eurozone GDP

Eurozone Purchasing Managers' IndicesIndex

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

E.Z. Manufacturing: Jun @ 45.1

E.Z. Services: Jun @ 47.1

Economics 35

The European Economy

Europe

Europe will continue to muddle through as the sovereign debt

crisis will likely fester for some time

Will there be a resolution?

The Eurozone at present is a monetary union without a fiscal union

Leaders are caught between the rock of another fiscal crisis and the hard place of a radical restructuring

We expect European leaders to move slowly toward a fiscal union

How does it affect the U.S. domestic economy?

Exports to Europe account for 1 to 2 percent of U.S. GDP

Uncertainty related to Europe could constrain investment spending decisions

A dissolution of the Eurozone could be another Lehman-like event

Economics 36

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

FR PT NE UK GE BE SZ SP AS IR IT JP SW US CA

Bank Exposure to Peripheral EuropePercent of GDP, Q4 2011

Italy

Spain

Portugal

Ireland

Greece

Peripheral Exposure

Many European countries have significant exposure to

sovereign debt in peripheral European countries

Source: Bank for International Settlements and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics 37

European Debt Crisis

European Debt Crisis

The European debt crisis is having far-reaching effects

Tighter Fiscal Policy in Europe/Potential Greek Exit

Slower U.S. export growth

Lower oil prices

Treasury rates kept low

Weaker job growth in the U.S. with more financial uncertainty

Small impact on unemployment and home prices

U.S. Money Market Funds

Equity valuation of European securities

Decreased Liquidity

Rising short-term market rates

TED spread, LIBOR-OIS

Dollar Appreciates

Versus both the euro and the pound

Economics 38

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Trade Weighted DollarJanuary 1997 =100

TWD OITP Index: Jun @ 131.6

TWD Broad Index: Jun @ 102.2

Revaluation of

Chinese Renminbi

Global Economies: A Strong Dollar Policy?

Economic fundamentals and risks abroad will drive the dollar


Economics 39

Potential Challenges to the Outlook

Outlook Risks

What are the primary risks to the outlook?

Easier monetary policy brings questions for the dollar, inflation and interest rate outlook

Fiscal policy: going over the “fiscal cliff”

Housing: unable to sustain growth on its own

European debt crisis weighs on global growth

Fall in oil and gasoline prices helps to raise real consumption

Weak employment growth means less-than-expected real income and spending growth

Economics 40

U.S. Forecast

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Real Gross Domestic Product 1 0.4 1.3 1.8 3.0 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 -3.6 3.0 1.7 1.8 1.8

Personal Consumption 2.1 0.7 1.7 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 -2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.4

Inflation Indicators 2

PCE Deflator 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.8 2.5 1.6 1.1

Consumer Price Index 2.1 3.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.2 1.2 -0.3 1.6 3.1 1.8 1.6

Industrial Production 1 4.4 1.2 5.6 5.1 5.6 3.1 2.4 2.2 -11.3 5.4 4.1 4.1 2.4

Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 8.8 8.5 7.5 7.0 5.5 6.0 5.8 5.4 9.1 32.2 7.9 5.7 5.5

Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 70.6 69.4 72.8 73.3 72.7 74.5 72.5 74.0 77.7 75.6 70.9 73.4 76.5

Unemployment Rate 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.0 8.3 8.1

Housing Starts 4 0.58 0.57 0.61 0.68 0.71 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.55 0.59 0.61 0.74 0.85

Quarter-End Interest Rates 5

Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Conventional Mortgage Rate 4.84 4.51 4.11 3.96 3.95 3.68 3.70 3.80 5.04 4.69 4.46 3.78 4.05

10 Year Note 3.47 3.18 1.92 1.89 2.23 1.67 1.65 1.80 3.26 3.22 2.78 1.84 2.05

Forecast as of: July 13, 20121 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change3 Federal Reserve Major Currency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End4 Millions of Units5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages

ForecastActual

2012

ForecastActual

2011

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Outlook

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Appendix

Economics 42

Recent Special Commentary

Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

To join any of our research distribution lists please visit our

website: http://www.wellsfargo.com/

economics

Date Title Authors

July-13 The Lowdown on Consumer Spending Vitner & Quinlan

July-11 Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals IX Silvia & Watt

July-10 Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VIII Silvia & Watt

July-09 Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VII Silvia & Watt

July-05 Housing Data Wrap-Up: June 2012 Vitner & Khan

July-02 Do Too Many Dollars Make Us an Inflation Nation? Bullard & Quinlan

June-29 2012 State Budget Outlook Silvia & Brown

June-22 Student Loans: The Best of Intentions Silvia, Seydl & Watt

June-20 FOMC: Keep On Twisting Until Europe's Fever Breaks Vitner

June-20 The Fiscal Cliff: Likelihood and Economic Impact Silvia, Brown & Watt

June-20 Credit Quality Monitor: June 2012 Anderson & Kashmarkek

June-19 The Fed: Same Goal, Different Method Silvia & Khan

June-15 Economic Growth Appears to Be Lost in a Fog of Uncertainty Vitner

June-07 What Happens if Span or Italy Leaves EMU? Bryson, Quinlan & Swankoski

June-07 Housing Chartbook: May 2012 Vitner, Khan & Seydl

May-29 Implications of a Euro Exit to Greece Bryson, Quinlan & Swankoski

May-24 Puerto Rico: Failure of the State Aleman

May-22 Commercial Real Estate Snapshot: South Carolina Vitner & Watt

May-16 Expected Inflation Continues to Fall, Challenging the FOMC Bullard & Seydl

May-16 Work or Retirement? The Employment Outlook for Seniors Bryson & Watt

May-15 The Not So Great Migration Silvia, Brown & Seydl

May-07 North Carolina: A Better Year Ahead? Silvia, Brown & Watt

April-24 Lessons from British Fiscal Consolidation Bryson & Seydl

April-19 Credit: Changing Patterns in How We Finance Growth Silvia & Iqbal

April-18 Business, Banking & the 2008 Financial Crisis: Where Are we Now? Silvia

April-10 Fiscal Consolidation in a Flow-of-Funds Framework Bryson & Seydl

April-09 Budget and Election Year Uncertainty Restrain the Capital Region Vitner & Watt

March-28 State Personal Income Gains: Who Is Hot And Who Is Not Vitner

March-23 Here We Go Again: Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy Silvia, Aleman & Iqbal

March-19 The Composition of Job Growth: A Low-Wage Bias? Vitner & Seydl

March-16 2011: Revising a Year of Modest Job Growth Vitner & Brown

March-15 Three Hard Realities Continue to Limit the Cyclical Expansion Silvia

March-09 Economic Outlook and the Biases that Limit Our Thinking Silvia

March-09 Credit Quality Monitor Anderson & Kashmarek

March-09 The Quality of Job Growth Remains Subpar Vitner

March-06 Three Measures of a Healthy Labor Market: A Cyclical View Silvia, Iqbal & Watt

March-05 Georgia’s Recovery Kicked Into High Gear During 2011 Vitner

March-05 Regional Impact of Gasoline Prices Vitner & Brown

March-05 The Evolution of the Economy, Credit & Economic Policy Silvia

February-28 Insourcing: Manufacturing - A Viable Solution in a Global Economy? Silvia, Brown & Swankoski

February-27 Is the Skills Disconnect In the Labor Force New? Silvia & Brown

February-23 2012 Regional Chartbook: Quarter 1 Vitner, Brown & Seydl

February-16 Does the New LEI Alter Recession Predictability Accuracy? Silvia & Iqbal

February-13 Disparities of Education and Structural Unemployment Silvia, Brown & Swankoski

February-13 WTI: No Longer A Benchmark For Oil Prices Aleman

February-08 Bank Lending: Fed's Survey Suggests Support for Growth Silvia & Watt

February-02 The Fragile Fiscal Policy Outlook: I Silvia & Brown

Economics 43

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

43

John Silvia … ....................... … [email protected]

Global Head of Research and Economics

Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected]

Global Head of Research & Economics

Chief Economist

Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . [email protected]

Jay Bryson, Global Economist …………………....………[email protected]

Scott Anderson, Senior Economist…………… … [email protected]

Eugenio Aleman, Senior Economist ……………[email protected]

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist …………………………[email protected]

Anika Khan, Senior Economist……… . [email protected]

Senior Economists

Sarah Watt, Economic Analyst ……………………………[email protected]

Kaylyn Swankoski, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Economists

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………………………[email protected]

Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………………………[email protected]

Ed Kashmarek, Economist ……………………………[email protected]

Michael Brown, Economist ………………………[email protected]

Economic Analysts

Administration

Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A, Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company.

SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE

Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients

For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FSA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, not will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general informational purposes only.

Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant. [email protected]

Cyndi Flowe, Administrative Assistant [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]
















Documents

Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges