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Manuela Merki, Dr. rer. pol.
Independent Economic ConsultantPost-Doc UFPR
Economic Outlook Brazil
Brazil 2014
Source: IBGE, BCB
Brazilian economy shows little euphoria
GDP (real term), % change to previous year
Optimism lost ground
Source: CNI, Fecomercio-SP
Consumer and Business Confidence
FIFA World Cup (06/14 – 07/14)
Benefits:
� Infrastructure
� Investment
� Consumption
� Tourism
� Reputation
But:
� Small effect in economic terms
� Crowding-out effects
� Tourism
� Consumption
� Workforce
� Extended holiday
Presidential election (10/14)
� Demonstrations in mid 2013 (Confederations Cup)
� More than 2 million people expressed discontent
� Protests got broad consent
� High popularity of Dilma Rousseff
� 39% consider current government excellent or good
� 55% approve of her way of governing
Source: IBGE, BCB
Structural turning point
GDP (real term), % change to previous year
Nov 12th 2009 Sep 28th 2013
Source: BCB
Exchange rate BRL/USD, monthly (end of period)
Appreciation and devaluation of the real
Service boom and deindustrialization
Source: IBGE
Value added (real terms), compound annual growth
Service sector (68%)Industry (26%)(6%)
Retail sales doubled within 8 years
Source: IBGE
Retail sales (real terms), 2011=100
Expansion in credit volume
Source: BCB
Net loans in relation to GDP, %
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Individuals Legal entities
Rebound of the manufacturing industry?
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010-2013 2013
Source: IBGE
Value added (real terms), compound annual growth
Service sectorIndustry
What does Brazil have to offer?Market size
Surface, km2 (tsd) Population, 2012 (m)
Source: World BankSource: UN FAO
What does Brazil have to offer?Economy
� 7th largest GDP: USD 2´253 billion (2012)
� Vast natural resources
� Diversified industrial base
� Stable democracy
� Good relations with neighbors
Income per capita, 2010
Source: atlasbrasil.org.br
Closed economy
Source: World Bank
Merchandise trade / GDP in %, 2012
Doing Business in Brazil is not easy
Source: IFC / World Bank
Ease of Doing Business 2014
134
116
100
96
92
53
43
34
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
India
Brazil
Regional Average
(Latin America & Caribbean)
China
Russia
Mexico
Colombia
Chile
Solid exports to Brazil
Source: EZV SwissImpEx
Swiss exports (annualized), 12/2002=100
Trade dominated by agriculture and chemical-pharmaceutical industryTrade Switzerland – Brazil, 2013
Source: EZV SwissImpEx
Reasons to believe in Brazil
Demography and Human Capital
Urbanization
Infrastructure
Oil & Gas
Commodities
Industry base
Growth segments
� Urbanization / Infrastructure
� Transportation, logistics� Waste management� Planning and control system
� Sustainability� Cleantech, renewable energy� Natural resources, biotech
� Technology� Productivity improvement
� Quality
� Education / Information� Education
� Social Media
� Personalized marketing
� Luxury / High quality goods
� Watches and jewelry
� Travelling
� Medtech
� Wellness
� Securities
Thank you!
Manuela Merki, Dr. rer. pol.Curitiba – Brazil
www.manuela-merki.chwww.swissq.com.br (under construction)