Upload
thunderbirdsamir
View
3.745
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Great informative presentation made by Dr. Angel Cabrera at the Economic Outlook 2012 event in Phoenix.
Citation preview
SHIFT HAPPENSWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2012
Ángel Cabrera
Thunderbird School of Global Management
@CabreraAngel
IMF September Forecast for 2012
• Advanced economies• +1.9% (-0.7% from
June)
• Emerging economies• +6.1% (-0.3% from
June)
• World• +4.0% (-0.5% from
June)
IMF September Forecast for 2012
• United States• +1.8% (-0.9% from
June)
• Euro Area• +1.1% (-0.6% from
June)
• Japan• +2.3% (-0.6% from
June)
Emerging Markets GDP Growth
1990 2010 2030E
24% 22%15%
24%19%
11%
10%
7%
4%
9%
9%
8%
19%
15%
18%
14%28%
44%
Developed Emerging
1.9%
3.3%
1.6%
4.1%
1.6%
6.1%
Average Real GDP per Capita
2010-2030E CAGR
World 3.6%
$39T $73T $180T
N.A. W. Europe Asia Dev. Asia EmergingCEEMEALatin America
Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis report “Global Growth Generators,” February 2011.Note: Asia Developed is comprised of Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Composition of World Real GDP
EM:52%
EM:42%
EM:70%
Rise of Emerging Markets Trade Flows
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Exports/Imports EM Trade as a % of Total World Trade
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
Emerging Markets
Developed Markets
Source: UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Handbook of Statistics 2010.
2009
2009
(1) Calculated using purchase power parity exchange rates. Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis report “Global Growth Generators,” February 2011 and Pricewaterhouse Coopers, “UK Economic Outlook,” November 2009.
G7 vs. E7
• U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., France, Italy and Canada
• China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey
G7 vs E7
Source: PWC.com
What world do you prefer• Option A: We grow at 2% while others grow at 1%
• Option B: We grow at 3% while others grow at 6%
SHOULD WE WORRY?
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Source: Citi, Economist Intelligence Unit.
Pu
bli
c D
ebt
2010
(%
GD
P)
Average GDP Growth 2010-2014 (%)
UnitedStates
Developed
Emerging
Australia
Brazil
China
India
IndonesiaKorea
Mexico
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Turkey
200%
Argentina
CanadaFrance
Germany
Italy
Japan
NetherlandsSpain
UnitedKingdom
Emerging Markets Driving Global GDP Growth
Europanic
• Interbank markets sign trouble
• A run on Italian and Spanish debt can make Lehman Brothers seem trivial
Europanic
Summary
• Explosive mix:• Slow recovery, even recession
in developed economies• Increased fiscal and financial
uncertainty
• Rebalancing necessary• Internal: from public to private
demand. • External: from advanced
economy to developing economy demand
• Worries about sovereign bonds, translated into worries about banks holding that debt
Areas of attention• Fiscal consolidation
• Not too fast or it will kill • Not too slow or it will feed uncertainty• Just right!
• Manage looming crisis• Support weak links that can trigger domino effect: european
sovereign debt, banks, ease housing troubles
• Rebalance global trade• Learn new acronyms
• E7• E2E
GLOBAL BUSINESS DIALOGUE - NOV 10-11Thunderbird School of Global Management
@Thunderbird