ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE...2020/02/02 · ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE: U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 69 66 63 60 57 54 41 28 15 11 8 6-7 METHODOLOGY Current Buying Conditions Business …

E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE:U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

WEEK OF 01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020


Morning Consult uses the same 5 questions that the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses to measure consumer sentiment.1

QUESTION #1 : PERSONAL FINANCES – CURRENT CONDITIONWe are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

QUESTION #2: PERSONAL FINANCES – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONSNow looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

QUESTION #3: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

QUESTION #4: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

QUESTION #5: CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONSAbout the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

MONTH L Y : U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I C H I G A N

The Survey of Consumers is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 600 cellular phone interviews with adults living in households in the coterminous United States. Preliminary results are released mid-month based on the first two weeks of interviews, which reflects about two thirds of the full monthly sample.

DA I L Y : M O R N I N G C O N S U L T

The Economic Intelligence Survey is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 7,500 daily and 210,000 monthly online interviews with adults living in households across the entire United States. Final results are released daily, which allows for unprecedented analysis of breaking news across geographic regions, economic variables, and demographic characteristics.

M E T H O D O L O G Y

Overall, the methodology used to measure trends in the economic expectations of consumers is in a state of flux. Rapid changes in technology and social media are unlikely to slow anytime soon. It is hard to imagine that in 10 or 20 years the measurement methodology will not have been transformed in some as yet undetermined ways. The fast pace of technological and social change must be confronted with a robust research methodology that preserves a consistent series of high quality measurements on economic expectations.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PROFESSOR RICHARD CURTIN 7TH JOINT EC / OECD WORKSHOP: NOVEMBER 30, 2015

WHY WE CREATED MORNING CONSULT ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE

Frequency + Scale = Key Improvements

Same Standard Questions Used to Calculate U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices

1. See University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, "Index Calculations.". Available at https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770 2


69

6663605754

412815

11

86-7

M E T H O D O L O G Y

Current Buying ConditionsBusiness Conditions: 5 Year ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 12 Month ExpectationsPersonal Finances: 12 Month ExpectationsPersonal Finances: Current Conditions

I N D I V I D U A L Q U E S T I O N S

Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC)Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

C O N S U M E R I N D I C E S

Indices Over Time

Weekly DashboardKey Takeaways

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

92-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)106-Week Snapshot: U.S. Daily Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

12Coronavirus Impact

13Industry Analysis


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C L I C K H E R E T O S I G N U P

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



KEY TAKEAWAYS(Week of 01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020)

Effect of Coronavirus on Consumer Confidence

• Coronavirus Registers Slight Effect On Consumer Confidence: As the coronavirus continued to spread over the last week, U.S. consumers registered a small but significant decrease in consumer confidence. The Morning Consult Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) ended the week down 0.6 points at 113.9. The decrease was driven by a deterioration in consumers’ expectations of future business conditions. Consumers’ 12-month and five-year expectations of future business conditions fell by 1.3 and 1.1 points, respectively. Consumers’ views of their personal finances remained stable. (Slide 8)

§ Concern for Global, U.S. Economy Outweighs Local Concerns: Americans are more concerned about the virus’ effects on the global and U.S. economies than on their own local economies. (Slide 12)

• Travel, Hospitality Industries Brace for Potential Impact: Companies’ quarterly earnings may still be affected, though the virus’ effects on consumer confidence and the macroeconomy remain modest. Forty-four percent of travelers are less likely to travel abroad over the next six months as a result of the coronavirus, according to a Jan. 31 - Feb. 2, 2020 Morning Consult survey. If enough consumers push back their plans until later in the year, corporate earnings may reflect atypical seasonality.

§ Concern for Global, U.S. Economy Outweighs Local Concerns: Americans are more concerned about the virus’ effects on the global and U.S. economies than on their own local economies. (Slide 13)

§ Strong U.S. Demand Overpowers Corona Weaknesses: The hospitality, leisure and transportation sectors encompass several subsectors in addition to lodging and airlines, including entertainment and trucking. Wage gains and job security in these sectors are relatively sensitive to U.S. demand: when Americans have more money, they tend to dine out more frequently and purchase more goods that require transport. Current trends in these sectors continue to reflect the strength of the U.S. economy rather than uncertainty in the global economy.

6

https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/03/us-consumers-grow-increasingly-worried-about-economic-hit-coronavirus/


KEY TAKEAWAYS(Week of 01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020)

• Increased Confidence Ahead of January Jobs Report: This Friday’s jobs report provides the critical first look at the strength of labor markets in 2020. Consumer confidence during the January reference week (Jan. 6-13) was 2 points higher than in the December reference week (Dec. 8-14). Consumers’ views of their personal financial conditions – a more direct reflection of labor market conditions – increased more in January than in December. (Slide 13)

• Industry-Level Confidence Highlights Differences Across the Economy: Manufacturing and transportation industry-level consumer confidence captures changes among employed workers and is a better proxy for job security and wage gains than for changes in net payrolls. Workers in both the manufacturing and transportation sectors were more confident than in December. Construction workers on the other hand did not grow more confident until the second half of January after the BLS reference period. (Slide 13)

7

Consumer Confidence Ahead of January Jobs Report


WEEKLY DASHBOARD(Week of 01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020)

Value Weekly Change* Intraweek Volatility 30-Day Trend

ICS (Consumer Sentiment) 113.9 ↓ 0.6 Stable Increasing

ICE (Future Expectations) 114.5 ↓ 0.9 Stable Increasing

ICC (Current Conditions) 113.1 ↓ 0.2 Stable Decreasing

Personal Finances: Current Conditions 104.4 ↓ 0.2 Elevated Decreasing

Personal Finances: 12 Month Expectations 130.4 ↓ 0.3 Stable Increasing

Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations 113.4 ↓ 1.3 Stable Increasing

Business Conditions: 5 Year Expectations 99.6 ↓ 1.1 Elevated Increasing

Current Buying Conditions 121.7 ↓ 0.3 Stable Increasing

*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 8


10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

8/1/19: Trump confirms increase in tariffs on Chinese goods

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods3/1/18: U.S.

trade war begins

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-1 8 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-1 9 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20

Index of Consumer Sentiment (Jan 1, 2018 – Feb 2, 2020)

5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods

10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years

3/1/19: U.S. trade war begins

8/14/19: 10-2 yield curve inverts

11/15/19: All yield curves uninvert

10/11/19: US announces “phase one” trade deal with China

8/1/19: Trump confirms tariff increase on Chinese goods

1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends

2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)

Morning Consult Daily Morning Consult Monthly

7,500/day 210,000/month

University of Michigan Monthly

600/month

Michigan Index (Phone)

Note: There are three primary reasons why Morning Consult and the University of Michigan appear on different axes: (1) Michigan deflates its values so that 1966 serves as its base year, which is not appropriate for Morning Consult’s data; (2) a higher percentage of survey respondents answer “Don’t Know” or “No Opinion” in Morning Consult’s Economic Intelligence Survey, thus providing a richer data set in terms of measuring respondents’ uncertainty; and (3) Morning Consult’s dramatically larger sample sizes reduce a mean-adjusted measure of variance.

12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins

01/02/20:US kills Iranian general

9


6-Week Snapshot Analysis: Daily U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)

113.3

113.9

113 112.8

113.4114

113.9

114.7

115.2

113.9

115114.5

115.1115.9

114.7114.9

113.4

112.4

112.1111.6

112.7113.8

113.5

113.3

114.3

113.4

114.6113.9

112.2

114.1

114.8 115

115.3

114.1

114.9

113.3114.1

115.1114.7

112.8

114

115.1

113.1113.7

114

107

110

113

117

96

98

100

103

12/22/19

12/25/19

12/28/19

12/31/19

01/03/20

01/06/20

01/09/20

01/12/20

01/15/20

01/18/20

01/21/2

0

01/24/20

01/27/2

0

01/30/20

02/02/20

Morning Consult Daily (7,500/day)

University of Michigan Monthly (600/month)

Mor

ning

Con

sult

Inde

x (O

nlin

e)M

ichigan Index (Phone)

01/02/20: U.S. fatally attacks Iranian commander Soleimani

01/08/20: President Trump announces U.S. “ready to embrace peace”

01/15/20: U.S. and China sign phase one trade deal

01/15/20: U.S. and China sign phase one trade deal

01/30/20: WHO declares coronavirus epidemic global emergency

10


CONSUMER INDICES(7-Day Moving Average Over Past 365 Days)

100

105

110

115

120

Feb-2019

Mar-2019

Apr-2019

May-2019

Jun-2019

Jul-2

019

Aug-2019

Sep-2019

Oct-2019

Nov-2019

Dec-2019

Jan-2020

Feb-2020

ICC (Current Conditions) ICE (Future Expectations) ICS (Consumer Sentiment)

11


As Coronavirus Spreads, Concern About Outbreak’s Impact on the Economy Grows

12

Over the course of one week, concern about the virus’ effect on the U.S. and global economies rose 6 and 10 percentage points, respectively

52%

58%

14%

10%

34%

32%

Jan. 27-29

Jan. 31-Feb. 2U.S. ECONOMY

GLOBAL ECONOMY

54%

64%

15%

10%

31%

25%

Jan. 27-29

Jan. 31-Feb. 2

42% 10% 32%Jan. 31-Feb. 2

Concerned Don't know/No opinion Not concerned

LOCAL ECONOMIES

Polls conducted Jan. 27-29, 2020, and Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2020, each with samples of 2,202 U.S. adults and margins of error of +/-2%.


Industry Analysis (4-Week Moving Average)

ICS Personal Finances(Average of current conditions and 12-month expectations)

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

9/8/

199/

15/1

99/

22/1

99/

29/1

910

/6/1

910

/13/

1910

/20/

1910

/27/

1911

/3/1

911

/10/

1911

/17/

1911

/24/

1912

/1/1

912

/8/1

912

/15/

1912

/22/

1912

/29/

191/

5/20

1/12

/20

1/19

/20

1/26

/20

2/2/

20

110

115

120

125

130

135

9/8/

199/

15/1

99/

22/1

99/

29/1

910

/6/1

910

/13/

1910

/20/

1910

/27/

1911

/3/1

911

/10/

1911

/17/

1911

/24/

1912

/1/1

912

/8/1

912

/15/

1912

/22/

1912

/29/

191/

5/20

1/12

/20

1/19

/20

1/26

/20

2/2/

20

13


INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)



INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT ( ICS ) OVER T IME(Weekly)

W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W

113.9 114.8 107.0(12/30/2019) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

108.5

109.4108.6

109.7 109.7110.5

109.5110.3

111110.7 110.7

111111.7

112.6

111.1110.3

110110

109.9

110.4

111.4

111

112.3

111.7111.8 111.8

111.7

109.6

107.7

107.3 107

107.7108.3

107.7

108.5 108.4

108.2 108.4

109.1109.3

110.2110.8

111.3111.8

112112.1

112.7

114

114.8

112.8

113.9114.5

113.9

105.0

107.5

110.0

112.5

115.0

117.5

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

15


KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020)


*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low

Demo: Age

18-24 114.5 ↓ 1.4 115.9 109.5

25-34 117.5 ↓ 1.5 119.5 111.0

35-44 117.6 ↑ 1.3 117.6 108.6

45-54 113.1 ↓ 0.9 114.1 105.7

55-64 111.5 ↓ 0.1 113.5 103.9

65+ 110.3 ↓ 1.1 111.6 102.2

Demo: Gender

Male 119.8 ↑ 0.2 119.8 111.3

Female 108.4 ↓ 1.4 110.2 102.5

16






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 108.1 ↓ 0.6 108.7 102.6

$50K-$100K 119.7 ↓ 0.8 121.1 111.7

$100K+ 126.8 ↓ 0.5 127.6 116.0

$100K-$150K 125.8 ↑ 0.2 127.6 115.6

$150-$200K 129.5 ↑ 0.3 129.5 114.3

$200-$250K 125.0 ↓ 4.9 130.0 110.6

$250K+ 129.8 ↓ 4.2 134.0 115.7

17






Demo: Education

Less Than College 113.6 ↓ 0.4 114.2 107.7

Bachelor's Degree 115.9 ↓ 1.2 117.3 106.9

Post-Grad 112.5 ↓ 1.3 113.8 102.5

Demo: Race/Ethnicity

African American 111.4 ↓ 1.1 113.4 103.3

Hispanic 115.2 ↓ 1.0 116.2 108.1

Other 108.9 0.0 110.7 102.4

White 114.3 ↓ 0.5 115.1 107.4

18






Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)

Educational Services 112.9 ↓ 3.0 116.4 105.3

Financial Activities 127.8 ↑ 1.4 127.8 112.9

Health Care 118.4 ↓ 1.3 119.7 108.9

Information 124.2 ↑ 1.7 124.2 111.2

Leisure and Hospitality 115.5 ↑ 0.1 119.9 98.3

Professional and Business Services 118.2 ↓ 3.1 121.3 107.9

Real Estate and Property 123.5 0.0 134.1 114.2

Retail Trade 118.2 ↓ 1.7 119.9 109.0

Transportation 127.2 ↑ 2.4 127.5 113.3

19






Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)

Agriculture 123.8 ↓ 5.9 130.8 109.6

Construction 131.1 ↑ 3.3 131.1 120.8

Manufacturing 127.7 ↑ 2.3 127.7 117.0

Demo: Employment Industry (Other)

Defense 126.0 ↓ 8.1 137.7 108.1

Other 117.1 ↑ 0.7 117.1 108.7

Public Administration 126.7 ↑ 9.3 127.5 97.1

20






Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder

Total 124.7 ↑ 0.9 125.7 114.9

Businesses with 1-5 Employees 119.7 ↑ 0.3 120.4 110.7


Businesses with 21-100 Employees 126.3 ↓ 4.6 139.0 113.9

Businesses with More than 101 Employees 154.4 ↑ 5.0 157.5 122.5

Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development

Works in Sales or Business Development 123.8 ↓ 0.3 124.3 114.2

21






Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics

Total 123.4 ↑ 2.7 123.4 112.7





Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 123.4 ↑ 2.9 123.8 110.3

Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 121.7 ↑ 2.0 126.0 108.7

22






Demo: Housing Assets

Homeowners 116.9 ↓ 1.0 118.2 109.5

Renters 110.6 ↓ 0.2 110.8 104.0

Other 107.2 ↑ 0.7 107.2 101.3

Demo: Equity Market Investments

$50K+ 122.0 ↓ 0.9 124.3 112.5

Less than $50K 119.1 0.0 119.7 109.9

None 108.8 ↓ 0.7 109.6 103.3

Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments

Total 123.0 ↓ 0.7 125.3 113.2

23






Demo: Daily Media Consumers

The New York Times 113.5 ↑ 2.8 120.3 93.0

The Wall Street Journal 128.0 ↓ 2.9 132.1 108.6

Fox News Channel 142.7 ↑ 0.4 144.9 131.1

CNN 103.5 ↑ 0.9 105.1 90.9

MSNBC 102.4 ↑ 4.6 102.5 85.2

Twitter 119.8 ↑ 1.7 119.8 109.7

Facebook 115.7 ↓ 0.2 116.3 108.5

24






Demo: Political Ideology

Conservative 137.7 ↓ 0.8 138.5 131.1

Liberal 96.6 ↓ 1.0 97.6 87.7

Moderate 108.7 ↓ 0.2 109.2 100.9

Demo: Trump Approval

Approve 141.2 ↓ 0.3 141.6 135.6

Disapprove 93.1 ↓ 1.1 94.4 85.5

Demo: 2016 Presidential Election

Republican Donald Trump 143.4 ↓ 0.4 143.8 136.7

Democrat Hillary Clinton 91.9 ↓ 0.8 92.8 82.1

Someone Else 100.8 ↓ 1.0 102.6 93.7

25


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020)

ICS


Federal Reserve Districts

Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.3 to 112.7112.7 to 114.3114.3 to 116.2116.2 to 122.1

Districts Value Weekly Change*

52-Week High 52-Week Low

Boston (1) 105.3 ↑ 0.3 107.0 97.6

New York (2) 115.3 ↑ 5.3 115.3 103.9

Philadelphia (3) 114.2 ↑ 4.6 114.2 101.5

Cleveland (4) 109.4 ↓ 3.5 112.9 104.7

Richmond (5) 114.4 ↓ 2.8 117.6 108.3

Atlanta (6) 122.1 ↑ 1.4 122.1 112.0

Chicago (7) 113.0 ↑ 1.3 113.4 103.8

St. Louis (8) 115.6 ↓ 0.4 117.8 107.1

Minneapolis (9) 117.9 ↑ 7.6 117.9 102.7

Kansas City (10) 111.8 ↓ 1.2 113.0 104.5

Dallas (11) 121.7 ↑ 3.9 121.7 111.3

San Francisco (12) 114.0 ↑ 3.1 114.0 103.3

26


INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)



INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ( ICE ) OVER T IME(Weekly)


114.5 115.4 106.2(01/20/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

108.2

110

108.8109.7

109.8110.5

109.4110.2

110.9

110.2110.4110.9

112113.3

111.3110.3

109.9

110.1

109.7

110.4

111.4111

112.8112 112 112

111.6

109.6

107

106.2 106.3

107.1107.8

107.1

108.1

108.1108.2 108.1

109.4109.6

111111.2

111.7112

112.6113

113.5114.2

115.3

113.2

114.5

115.4114.5

104

108

112

116

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

28






Demo: Age

18-24 115.5 ↓ 2.9 118.4 110.3

25-34 120.9 ↓ 1.7 122.6 112.7

35-44 120.1 ↑ 0.6 120.1 109.4

45-54 114.2 ↓ 1.1 116.0 106.1

55-64 110.7 ↑ 0.3 112.7 101.6

65+ 107.2 ↓ 0.9 108.6 97.3

Demo: Gender

Male 120.5 ↓ 0.3 120.8 110.3

Female 108.8 ↓ 1.5 110.8 101.7

29






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 110.0 ↓ 1.0 111.1 103.5

$50K-$100K 119.1 ↓ 0.8 120.3 109.2

$100K+ 123.7 ↓ 0.7 124.5 110.4

$100K-$150K 123.1 ↓ 0.1 124.9 110.3

$150-$200K 125.9 ↑ 0.4 125.9 108.1

$200-$250K 120.3 ↓ 4.1 124.8 103.4

$250K+ 125.8 ↓ 4.1 129.9 108.9

30






Demo: Education

Less Than College 115.3 ↓ 0.6 115.9 108.3


Post-Grad 109.1 ↓ 1.8 110.9 97.8



Hispanic 116.2 ↓ 2.1 118.3 108.5

Other 108.9 ↓ 0.2 111.3 100.2

White 114.5 ↓ 0.6 115.2 106.0

31









Health Care 117.1 ↓ 3.3 120.7 107.3

Information 123.9 ↑ 1.0 123.9 108.6

Leisure and Hospitality 116.5 ↑ 2.9 122.6 95.5


Real Estate and Property 125.4 ↑ 1.9 134.4 112.4

Retail Trade 119.6 ↓ 2.5 122.2 108.2

Transportation 129.4 ↑ 3.2 130.8 113.6

32







Agriculture 122.9 ↓ 9.2 135.8 108.7

Construction 134.5 ↑ 3.5 134.5 121.7

Manufacturing 129.3 ↑ 4.1 129.3 115.3


Defense 127.8 ↓ 7.3 135.1 106.2

Other 117.5 ↑ 0.1 117.5 107.3


33







Total 126.3 ↑ 0.3 126.9 114.3







34







Total 124.0 ↑ 2.5 124.0 112.1






Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 122.1 ↑ 3.8 127.0 106.3

35







Homeowners 116.0 ↓ 1.2 117.5 107.2

Renters 112.8 ↓ 0.8 113.5 104.5

Other 111.2 ↑ 0.7 111.2 104.4


$50K+ 118.5 ↓ 0.9 120.9 107.1

Less than $50K 119.9 ↓ 0.4 120.6 109.0

None 111.1 ↓ 1.0 112.1 104.5


Total 119.3 ↓ 0.5 121.8 107.5

36








The Wall Street Journal 122.1 ↓ 7.0 130.4 104.2

Fox News Channel 145.4 ↑ 1.0 146.4 133.2

CNN 102.1 ↑ 1.9 102.1 84.8

MSNBC 99.2 ↑ 3.3 99.2 79.0

Twitter 120.0 ↑ 1.3 120.0 107.7

Facebook 116.8 ↓ 0.3 117.5 108.2

37







Conservative 140.7 ↓ 0.5 141.3 132.7

Liberal 94.1 ↓ 1.6 95.7 83.1

Moderate 108.7 ↓ 0.4 109.1 99.4


Approve 145.2 ↓ 0.4 145.7 139.5

Disapprove 90.7 ↓ 1.5 92.2 80.9




Someone Else 99.2 ↓ 0.9 101.6 90.3

38


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020)

ICE



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.4 to 112.9112.9 to 114.8114.8 to 117.6117.6 to 123.3



Boston (1) 105.4 ↑ 2.3 105.7 95.5

New York (2) 114.9 ↑ 4.4 114.9 102.3

Philadelphia (3) 115.8 ↑ 6.0 115.8 101.3

Cleveland (4) 107.2 ↓ 5.8 113.0 103.3

Richmond (5) 114.8 ↓ 3.5 118.5 108.6

Atlanta (6) 123.3 ↑ 0.9 123.3 112.9

Chicago (7) 113.4 ↑ 2.6 113.6 102.0

St. Louis (8) 117.4 ↑ 0.4 118.7 106.4

Minneapolis (9) 118.2 ↑ 8.9 118.2 99.8

Kansas City (10) 111.4 ↓ 2.8 114.1 104.8

Dallas (11) 122.2 ↑ 2.4 122.2 111.9

San Francisco (12) 114.5 ↑ 3.2 114.5 101.7

39


INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)



INDEX OF CURRENT CONDIT IONS ( ICC ) OVER T IME(Weekly)


113.1 114.0 108.0(12/30/2019) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

109108.5108.4

109.7109.7

110.4

109.8 110.3

111.1111.4

111.1 111.1111.2

111.6110.8

110.2110.1 109.8

110.2110.4

111.2 111111.6

111.2111.4

111.6 111.9

109.7

108.8109

108

108.7

109.1

108.6

109.2108.8

108.2

108.9

108.7 108.8

109.1110.3

110.6

111.6111.2

110.8

111.4

113.7

114

112.2

113.1 113.3

113.1

108

111

114

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

41






Demo: Age

18-24 112.9 ↑ 0.9 114.6 107.4

25-34 112.3 ↓ 1.2 115.2 107.9

35-44 113.8 ↑ 2.2 113.8 106.5

45-54 111.4 ↓ 0.6 113.1 105.1

55-64 112.7 ↓ 0.6 114.6 106.9

65+ 115.0 ↓ 1.5 116.5 108.9

Demo: Gender

Male 118.7 ↑ 0.9 118.9 112.5

Female 107.8 ↓ 1.3 109.4 103.8

42






Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 105.2 0.0 105.4 100.9

$50K-$100K 120.5 ↓ 0.8 122.3 115.4

$100K+ 131.5 ↓ 0.2 132.3 124.1

$100K-$150K 129.8 ↑ 0.7 131.5 123.2

$150-$200K 134.8 ↑ 0.1 136.3 123.8

$200-$250K 132.1 ↓ 6.1 138.2 121.5

$250K+ 135.8 ↓ 4.3 140.1 124.1

43






Demo: Education

Less Than College 111.0 0.0 111.6 106.6


Post-Grad 117.5 ↓ 0.6 118.4 109.7



Hispanic 113.7 ↑ 0.7 114.1 106.9

Other 108.8 ↑ 0.3 111.1 102.8

White 113.9 ↓ 0.4 114.9 108.9

44









Health Care 120.4 ↑ 1.7 120.4 110.3

Information 124.6 ↑ 2.6 124.6 114.4

Leisure and Hospitality 114.1 ↓ 4.2 118.3 102.4


Real Estate and Property 120.6 ↓ 3.0 133.8 115.7

Retail Trade 116.0 ↓ 0.4 118.1 109.2

Transportation 123.9 ↑ 1.1 123.9 110.3

45







Agriculture 125.2 ↓ 1.0 127.9 104.8

Construction 126.0 ↑ 3.0 127.5 118.1

Manufacturing 125.4 ↓ 0.3 127.1 118.1


Defense 123.2 ↓ 9.3 143.0 102.9

Other 116.4 ↑ 1.7 116.4 108.6


46







Total 122.1 ↑ 1.8 123.9 112.6







47







Total 122.6 ↑ 3.1 122.6 113.7






Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 121.1 ↓ 0.8 125.7 112.4

48







Homeowners 118.3 ↓ 0.8 119.5 112.9

Renters 107.3 ↑ 0.5 107.7 102.8

Other 101.1 ↑ 0.8 101.6 95.1


$50K+ 127.2 ↓ 0.8 129.3 119.7

Less than $50K 117.9 ↑ 0.5 118.3 111.2

None 105.3 ↓ 0.2 106.0 101.3


Total 128.5 ↓ 1.0 130.6 121.0

49








The Wall Street Journal 136.7 ↑ 3.3 140.3 114.5

Fox News Channel 138.6 ↓ 0.6 142.6 127.8

CNN 105.6 ↓ 0.6 110.2 98.4

MSNBC 107.3 ↑ 6.5 109.1 92.3

Twitter 119.5 ↑ 2.2 119.5 111.1

Facebook 113.9 0.0 114.5 108.5

50







Conservative 133.3 ↓ 1.3 134.6 126.5

Liberal 100.4 ↓ 0.1 101.3 94.3

Moderate 108.8 0.0 109.7 103.1


Approve 135.2 ↓ 0.2 135.6 129.6

Disapprove 96.7 ↓ 0.5 98.2 91.8




Someone Else 103.1 ↓ 1.0 105.9 98.6

51


FED D ISTR ICTS(01/27/2020 - 02/02/2020)

ICC



Atlanta (6)

Boston (1)

Chicago (7)

Cleveland (4)

Dallas (11)

Kansas City (10)

Minneapolis (9)

New York (2)

Philadelphia (3)

Richmond (5)

San Francisco (12)

St. Louis (8)

Value105.2 to 112.4112.4 to 113.1113.1 to 116.2116.2 to 121.1



Boston (1) 105.2 ↓ 2.7 109.5 100.9

New York (2) 115.8 ↑ 6.6 115.8 106.0

Philadelphia (3) 111.7 ↑ 2.5 113.9 101.9

Cleveland (4) 112.7 0.0 113.3 106.2

Richmond (5) 113.9 ↓ 1.6 116.4 108.0

Atlanta (6) 120.4 ↑ 2.1 120.4 110.8

Chicago (7) 112.3 ↓ 0.6 113.1 105.6

St. Louis (8) 113.0 ↓ 1.6 116.5 105.9

Minneapolis (9) 117.3 ↑ 5.7 117.3 104.3

Kansas City (10) 112.4 ↑ 1.2 112.4 104.0

Dallas (11) 121.1 ↑ 6.2 121.1 109.9

San Francisco (12) 113.2 ↑ 2.9 113.2 104.9

52


PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: CURRENT CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


104.4 105.4 99.7(12/30/2019) (10/28/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

102.1

100.2

100

101.5

101.1

102.3

101.6102

102.7

103.7

102.7103

103 103.3

102.7 102.6

101.9 101.8

102.5

102.6103.3

102.6

103.4

103103.2

103.7104.2

101.6

100.9

101.4

100

101.2101.3

100.5

101.3100.8

100

100.699.8

99.799.8

101.3

100.6

102.1

101.2101

101.8

104.9

105.4

103.7

104.8 104.6

104.4

97.5

100.0

102.5

105.0

107.5

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

54



PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 108.2 ↑ 0.9 111.7 102.5

25-34 106.5 ↓ 1.4 109.5 101.6

35-44 105.3 ↑ 3.0 105.7 98.6

45-54 100.6 ↓ 2.3 104.3 95.7

55-64 102.4 ↑ 0.1 103.5 95.4

65+ 104.4 ↓ 1.0 105.4 96.6

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 94.1 ↓ 0.2 94.3 89.9

$50K-$100K 114.2 ↓ 0.3 115.8 109.2

$100K+ 128.3 0.0 129.1 121.2

$100K-$150K 126.2 ↑ 1.7 127.2 119.2

$150-$200K 132.3 ↓ 0.8 133.0 121.2

$200-$250K 128.0 ↓ 9.1 138.6 120.1

$250K+ 134.1 ↓ 4.4 139.6 125.2

55


PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



PERSONAL F INANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


130.4 130.8 125.6(12/30/2019) (09/02/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

127.1

128.9

127.7128

127.8

128

127.7

128.9

129.3

129.2

128.3

129.1

130.2 130.5

128.8128.7

127.9128.6

127.9

126.9

128.4

128.2

129.9128.8 128.8

128.5 128.6

127.8126.8

126.1

125.8 125.6

125.8

125.6

126.6126.2

126.7

126.3

127.8127.4

128.4128.7

129

127.9

128.8

129.5129.5

129.4

130.8

129.6130.1

130.7130.4

125.0

127.5

130.0

132.5

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

57



PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 142.1 ↓ 1.1 144.6 137.9

25-34 147.4 ↓ 0.2 149.3 143.3

35-44 140.7 ↑ 0.9 141.0 134.1

45-54 129.7 ↓ 1.7 131.6 124.0

55-64 120.6 ↑ 0.5 121.9 113.2

65+ 109.3 ↓ 0.4 110.5 102.3

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 127.4 ↓ 0.2 127.9 122.5

$50K-$100K 133.7 ↓ 0.1 134.7 127.8

$100K+ 136.1 ↓ 1.5 138.1 129.9

$100K-$150K 135.2 ↓ 0.7 138.1 130.0

$150-$200K 138.0 ↓ 2.6 142.0 128.9

$200-$250K 134.5 ↓ 3.0 142.0 128.7

$250K+ 139.5 ↓ 3.1 142.6 126.6

58


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


113.4 114.7 101.9(01/20/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

105.1

106.7

105.5106.9

107.1

108.4

107

108109

107.8108.7

109.2110.2

112.5

109.6

107.4107.5

107.1 107

109.1109.9

109.4

110.5110.7

110.9 111.3

109.8

106.8

103.1

101.9102.4

103.7104.8 104.1

105.2 105.2

104.8

105.4106.5

107.5108.9 109.3

110.2

110.9111.3

112113.1

114

114.5

111.3

113.7114.7

113.4

100

105

110

115

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

60



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 111.4 ↓ 1.2 113.3 101.6

25-34 113.8 ↓ 3.1 116.9 103.5

35-44 115.8 0.0 115.8 101.7

45-54 112.7 ↓ 0.7 114.4 101.8

55-64 112.4 ↓ 0.3 115.2 100.6

65+ 113.7 ↓ 2.1 115.8 99.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 109.0 ↓ 1.1 110.1 99.7

$50K-$100K 117.6 ↓ 2.0 119.6 105.2

$100K+ 123.4 ↓ 0.7 125.1 104.3

$100K-$150K 122.3 0.0 125.9 104.4

$150-$200K 126.3 ↓ 0.7 126.9 101.2

$200-$250K 121.8 ↓ 2.3 124.1 94.7

$250K+ 126.2 ↓ 4.0 130.7 102.3

61


BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


99.6 100.7 90.6(01/20/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

92.3

94.4

93.2

94.194.3

95.1

93.4

93.894.4

93.794.1

94.5

95.8

96.9

95.694.8

94.4

94.5

94.395.2

96

95.3

97.9

96.796.4

96.396.3

94.1

91

90.6 90.8

91.9

92.7

91.7

92.4 92.993.1

92.6

93.893.9

95.695.6

95.997.2

97.7

97.4

97.999.2

100.6

98.6

99.5

100.7

99.6

92

96

100

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

63



BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 93.0 ↓ 6.5 99.5 87.2

25-34 101.7 ↓ 1.8 103.5 89.7

35-44 103.8 ↑ 1.1 103.8 91.5

45-54 100.3 ↓ 0.9 102.1 90.5

55-64 99.2 ↑ 0.6 101.0 89.4

65+ 98.5 ↓ 0.2 100.0 89.9

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 93.7 ↓ 1.8 95.4 86.5

$50K-$100K 106.1 ↓ 0.4 106.9 94.7

$100K+ 111.6 ↑ 0.1 112.0 96.2

$100K-$150K 111.9 ↑ 0.4 112.7 96.4

$150-$200K 113.5 ↑ 4.6 113.5 92.1

$200-$250K 104.7 ↓ 7.1 114.1 84.6

$250K+ 111.8 ↓ 5.1 116.9 95.5

64


CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



CURRENT BUYING CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)


121.7 122.5 116.0(12/23/2019) (02/03/2019)(As of 02/02/2020)

115.9

116.7116.7

118118.4

118.5

117.9118.6

119.4119.2

119.5

119.3

119.5120

118.8

117.8118.3

117.8 118118.3

119.2119.3

119.9

119.4

119.5119.5

119.5

117.8

116.8116.6

116 116.1

116.9 116.7

117.1116.7

116.4117.1

117.5 117.9118.4

119.3

120.7

121 121.2

120.6121

122.5122.5

120.8121.3

122

121.7

115.0

117.5

120.0

122.5

125.0

02/01/19

03/01/19

04/01/19

05/01/19

06/01/19

07/01/1

9

08/01/19

09/01/19

10/01/1

9

11/01/1

9

12/01/19

01/01/2

0

02/01/20

66



CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS



Demo: Age

18-24 117.6 ↑ 1.0 118.6 112.3

25-34 118.1 ↓ 1.0 121.0 113.2

35-44 122.3 ↑ 1.5 122.3 113.5

45-54 122.1 ↑ 1.1 122.1 114.0

55-64 123.0 ↓ 1.3 125.8 116.4

65+ 125.6 ↓ 2.1 127.7 120.6

Demo: Income

Less Than $50K 116.3 ↑ 0.2 116.6 110.7

$50K-$100K 126.8 ↓ 1.3 128.9 120.9

$100K+ 134.8 ↓ 0.5 136.2 125.4

$100K-$150K 133.4 ↓ 0.3 135.8 125.3

$150-$200K 137.3 ↑ 1.0 141.1 123.9

$200-$250K 136.3 ↓ 3.1 139.4 120.1

$250K+ 137.5 ↓ 4.2 141.7 121.7

67


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C L I C K H E R E T O S I G N U P

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Sampling Method

Morning Consult Economic Intelligence interviews about 7,500 adults per day in the US. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience.

Survey Questions

Survey respondents answer the same five questions:

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?

Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?

Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?

Data Processing

The data are then weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region according to US Census data. Weekly results aggregate daily surveys conducted from Monday through Sunday. Monthly results aggregate daily surveys conducted during the calendar month.

Relative Score and Index Calculations

The relative scores for each of the five questions reflect the percent of favorable replies minus the percent of unfavorable replies plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five relative scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 1 and 5.

Intraweek Volatility and 30-Day Trend

Intraweek Volatility compares the day-to-day volatility within a given week to average intraweek volatility. “Stable” weeks are those with average or below average volatility. “Elevated” weeks are those with above average volatility. The 30-Day Trend captures the slope of the line of best fit for the past 30 days of smoothed daily data. All positive slopes are considered increasing trends, and all negative slopes are decreasing trends.

METHODOLOGY

69


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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE...2020/02/02 · ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE: U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 69 66 63 60 57 54 41 28 15 11 8 6-7 METHODOLOGY Current Buying Conditions Business …