Presented by UK Industry Analysts:

Samuel Kotze

John Griffin

20th April 2020

Economic insights: COVID-19

COVID-19 Statistics

United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics

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COVID-19 Containment Data

South Korea United Kingdom USIreland Mexico ChinaGermany Greece Poly. (South Korea)Poly. (United Kingdom) Poly. (US) Poly. (Ireland)Poly. (Mexico) Poly. (China) Poly. (Germany)

Latest UK figures

19th April 2020

• Total number of lab-confirmed

UK cases: 120,067

• Daily number of lab-confirmed

UK cases: 5,850

United Kingdom has exited the

Coronavirus confirmed cases

exponential growth phase.

United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics 7th April

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South Korea United Kingdom US Ireland MexicoChina Germany Poly. (South Korea) Poly. (United Kingdom) Poly. (US)Poly. (Ireland) Poly. (Mexico) Poly. (China) Poly. (Germany)

Exponential case

growth

United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics 20th April

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United Kingdom COVID-19 Statistics 20th April

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Exponential case

peak reached

Government response

United Kingdom government response

Updated Government measures:

• 16th April: The government announced an extension of lockdown measures for at least

another three weeks.

Other developments:

• 8th April: The chancellor set out an extra £750 million coronavirus funding for frontline charities.

• 18th April: The government announced an £1.6 billion extra support for English councils.

• 20th April: The government unveiled a £1.3 billion package to support start-ups.

Economic indicators

United Kingdom GDP growth

Real GDP decline

- Real GDP forecast to decline by 35% during first quarter of 2020-21.

- Steeper fall in output than during Global Financial Crises (GFC).

- Faster recovery expected.

- Increased government borrowing expected to spur a long-term increase in public sector net debt.

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Actual OBR scenario

Unemployment

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United Kingdom Unemployment Rate

Actual Forecast OBR Scenario

Severe increase in unemployment

• New claims for universal credit made

between 16 and 31 March: 950,000

• Significantly worse than Global Financial

Crises (GFC) unemployment increase.

.

• Unemployment may reach 10% in worst

case scenario.

• Recovery anticipated to be relatively quick,

barring exogenous shocks.

• Job retention scheme goes live 20th April.

Industries

IBISWorld’s most affected UK sectors

Industry Code (UK) Sub-sectorA Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

B Mining and Quarrying

C Other manufacturing

C10-C12 Food and beverage manufacturing

C13-C15 Clothing, textiles and footwear manufacturing

C16-C17, C22-C25 Material manufacturing

C18, C26-C27 Electronics manufacturing

C19-C20 Chemicals manufacturing

C21 Pharmaceuticals manufacturing

C28-C29 Vehicle & Machinery manufacturing

D Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply

E Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities

F Construction

G Other wholesale and retail

G45 Motor vehicle wholesale and retail

G46-G47 Food and beverage wholesale and retail

H Transportation and Storage

I Accommodation and Food Service Activities

J Information and Communication

K Insurance

K Finance

L Real Estate Activities

M & S Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities

N Administrative and Support Service Activities

P Education

Q Human Health and Social Work Activities

R Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Stifled Manufacturing

• UK manufacturers suffer by weak new orders and supply chain disruption.

• Manufacturing PMI records steepest fall in output since July 2012.

• Several manufacturers re-purpose operations towards the production of medical equipment.

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Manufacturing PMI

Motor Vehicle Manufacturing

• Revenue growth:

• 2019-20: -8.3%

• 2020-21: -18.6%

• 2021-21: -11.0%

• Highly globalised nature of the industry leaves it susceptible to coronavirus impact.

• SMMT forecast an 18% drop in output in 2020.

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Transportation and Storage

Transportation and Storage

• Transport use down 60% for all transport types compared with February.

• 95% fall in rail and tube passenger numbers.

• Industries most affected:

• Urban Passenger Rail Operations.

• Intercity Passenger Rail Transport.

• Bus and Tramway Operations.

• Government support• Temporary nationalisation of rail services.

• £400 million bailout for bus services.

Real Estate Activities

Real Estate

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UK House price indexResidential sector

• Social distancing and virus fears limit residential transactions.

• Bank Of England bank rate changes mean many mortgages

have been revaluated.

• Mortgage repossessions generally halted by Financial

Conduct Authority.

• Residential house price stagnant in March.

• Major estate agencies expected residential property sales to

drop significantly.

• Property listing websites are reporting a significant fall in

residential property demand.

• House prices in the United Kingdom to decline in 2020

according to property experts.

Real Estate

Commercial

• Demand for warehouse space spikes since mid-March 2020. This has mainly been driver by major supermarkets, online-retailers and pharmaceutical third-party logistic firms.

• Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) face fall in real estate capital values as social distancing measure affect retail sales and subsequently retail property rental values.

• Office space less affected but not immune. Work from home has driven technology integration which may reduce demand for office space in future.

IBISWorld COVID-19 Updates

COVID-19 Updates

IBISWorld Industry code IBISWorld Industry TitleC17.220 Sanitary Product Manufacturing in the UK

C20.510 Explosives Manufacturing in the UK

C21.100 Basic Pharmaceutical Product Manufacturing in the UK

C26.200 Computer & Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing in the UK

C29.100 Motor Vehicle Manufacturing in the UK

G47.110 Supermarkets in the UK

G47.710 Clothing Retailing in the UK

G47.730 Dispensing Chemists in the UK

H51.101 Scheduled Passenger Air Transport in the UK

H51.102 Non - Scheduled Passenger Air Transport in the UK

I55.100 Hotels in the UK

I56.101 Full - Service Restaurants in the UK

J60.200 Television Programming & Broadcasting in the UK

K64.992 Factoring in the UK

N79.110 Travel Agencies in the UK

N82.200 Call Centres in the UK

Q86.900 Diagnostic & Ambulance Services in the UK

Q87.300 Retirement Homes in the UK

SP0.068 Budget Airlines in the UK

SP0.064 Online Travel Agencies in the UK

IBISWorld COVID-19 coverage

https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-insider/coronavirus-insights/