ECONOMIC INDICATORS report: population & demographics

ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT: POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS

UPDATED ANNUALLY

Current as at 30.06.2020

Presented by ECONOMY & PROSPERITY

Page 2 of 18

POPULATION

FIGURE 1. FTE POPULATION ESTIMATES, BOWEN BASIN LGAS AND SELECTED UCLS, JUNE 2019

Full-time equivalent population

The FTE population measure is the sum of the resident population (people who live in the area permanently) and the non-resident population (i.e. the number of non-resident workers on-shift).

The FTE population measure provides a more complete estimate of total demand for certain services and infrastructure in regions with a high incidence of FIFO/DIDO workers.

LGA/Location(s) Resident population

Non-resident population

FTE population

Banana (S)

Baralaba 245 125 370

Biloela 5,760 165 5,920

Moura 1,515 285 1,795

Other towns(c) 1,220 0 1,220

Rural areas 5,555 670 6,225

Banana (S) total 14,295 1,240 15,535

Central Highlands (R)

Blackwater 4,840 1,765 6,605

Bluff 270 265 535

Capella 980 45 1,030

Emerald 14,125 550 14,675

Springsure 845 20 870

Tieri 1.095 300 1,395

Other towns(c) 1,495 20 1,515

Rural areas 5,050 1,405 6,455

Central Highlands (R) total 28,700 4,375 33,075

Isaac (R)

Clermont 2,070 85 2,155

Dysart 2,335 1,840 4,175

Glenden 585 415 1,000

Middlemount 1,715 1,130 2,850

Moranbah 8,675 2,820 11,495

Nebo 490 325 820

Rural areas 5,065 5,510 10,575

Isaac (R) total 20,935 12,130 33,065

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

Bowen 9,040 50 9,090

Collinsville 1,050 440 1,485

Other towns(c) 450 20 470

Rural areas 2,025 150 2,175

Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) total 12,565 660 13,225

BOWEN BASIN TOTAL 76,49 18,410 94,900

Source: QGSO Bowen Basin Population Reports 2019

Page 3 of 18

FIGURE 2. ISAAC TOTAL FTE POPULATION

The following graph depicts the total full time equivalent population for the Isaac Region from 2009-2019

IRC

Estimated Resident Population

Total Non-Resident Workers

FTE Population Estimate

2009 22,186 8,568 30,754

2010 22,590 9,900 32,490

2011 22,960 13,590 36,540

2012 23,720 17,125 40,850

2013 24,215 14,950 39,165

2014 24,755 11,085 35,845

2015 24,670 10,400 35,070

2016 24,795 9,445 34,240

2017 21,250 10,580 31,835

2018 20,990 12,075 33,070

2019 20,935 12,130 33,065

Source: QGSO Bowen Basin Population Reports 2009-2019

FIGURE 3. TOWN-SPECIFIC FTE POPULATION

Clermont FTE Population

CMT Estimated Resident

Population



2009 1953 417 2370

2011 2,000 510 2,510

2012 2,260 130 2,390

2013 2,415 60 2,470

2017 2,080 45 2,120

2018 2035 90 2125

2019 2070 85 2155

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Full Time Equivalent Population

Estimated Resident Population Total Non-Resident Workers


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Dysart FTE Population

DYS Estimated Resident

Population



2009 3,482 1,115 4,597

2011 3,450 2,080 5,530

2012 3,280 2,365 5,645

2013 3,180 2,205 5,385

2014 3,295 1,735 5,030

2015 3,110 1,200 4,310

2016 3,060 1,765 4,825

2017 2,470 1,605 4,075

2018 2400 1790 4190

2019 2335 1840 4175

Glenden FTE Population

GDN Estimated Resident

Population



2009 1,248 1,392 2,640

2011 1,320 1,620 2,940

2012 1,340 535 1,875

2013 1,400 295 1,695

2014 1,435 300 1,735

2015 1,485 365 1,850

2016 1,465 435 1,900

2017 590 325 915

2018 585 435 1020

2019 585 415 1000

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2009201120122013201420152016201720182019





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Middlemount FTE Population

MMT Estimated Resident

Population



2009 2,238 1,278 3,516

2011 2,220 2,280 4,500

2012 1,960 2,110 4,070

2013 2,015 1,515 3,620

2014 2,085 1,310 3,395

2015 2,180 1,520 3,700

2016 2,120 1,325 3,450

2017 1,845 1,250 3,095

2018 1790 1455 3245

2019 1715 1130 2850

Moranbah FTE Population

MBH Estimated Resident

Population



2009 8,225 1,933 10,158

2011 8,790 3,560 12,350

2012 8,990 4,585 13,575

2013 9,120 3,745 12,865

2014 9,455 2,130 11,585

2015 9,620 2,305 11,920

2016 9,855 1,600 11,455

2017 8,495 2,190 10,685

2018 8540 2465 11005

2019 8675 2820 11495

Nebo FTE Population

NBO Estimated Resident

Population



2009 343 455 798

2011 350 1,320 1,670

2012 495 555 1,045

2013 490 475 965

2014 500 335 835

2015 470 280 750

2016 465 325 785

2017 525 440 965

2018 510 350 860

2019 490 325 820

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Other Towns & Rural Areas FTE Population

OTHER Estimated Resident

Population



2009 4,697 1,978 6,675

2011 4,840 2,210 7,050

2012 5,395 6,850 12,245

2013 5,505 6,660 12,165

2014 7,995 5,280 13,275

2015 7,805 4,730 12,535

2016 7,835 3,995 11,830

2017 5,250 4,725 9,975

2018 5130 5490 10620

2019 5065 5510 10575

Source: QGSO Bowen Basin Population Reports 2010-2019

0

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10,000

15,000





Page 7 of 18

ISAAC POPULATION PROJECTION

The following projection series are presented the Isaac Region.

As at December 2018, 26 of the 43 active coal operations in the Bowen Basin were located in Isaac (R), along with four other resource operations. Isaac (R) had a non-resident population of 12,080 persons in June 2018, up from 10,580 persons in June 2017. This growth was influenced by expanded production and scheduled maintenance activities at existing mines, activity at one new mine and one reopened mine, and three projects that were under construction (QGSO, 2018).

Three projection series are presented for Isaac (R). Series A expects the non-resident population will decrease to 10,250 persons in 2019, before increasing to 10,730 persons in 2020, then declining to 10,100 persons by 2024. This series takes into account the non-resident workforces of all active resource operations, as well as workforces for the Carmichael Coal Project and Carmichael Rail Network, which have reached financial close but have yet to begin construction.

Series B projects the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will decline to 10,450 persons in 2019. It is expected to peak at 12,420 persons in 2023 before decreasing to 11,260 persons by 2025. This series factors in the construction and production workforces of two rail projects and nine coal projects, including China Stone, Ironbark No.1 and Red Hill Mining Lease Project, which have been approved but are yet to reach financial close.

The Series C projection takes account of the additional impacts of two coal projects, Moorlands and Olive Downs, that have lodged an EIS but have yet to receive approval. Under this scenario, the non-resident population of Isaac (R) will follow a similar trajectory to Series B, peaking at 12,720 persons in 2023 before falling to 11,560 persons by 2025.

FIGURE 4. PAST AND PROJECTED NON-RESIDENT POPULATION, ISAAC

Page 8 of 18

FIGURE 5. PROJECTED NON-RESIDENT POPULATION, ISAAC

Projected non-resident population, Isaac (R)

Number of non-resident workers on-shift at 30 June

Projection series

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Series A 12,080 10,250 10,730 10.530 10.210 10,360 10,100 10,100

Series B 12,080 10,450 11.790 11,940 11,600 12,420 12,220 11,260

Series C 12,080 10,600 12.410 12.380 11,900 12,720 12,520 11,560

(Source: QGSO estimates, 2018; QGSO projections, 2019 to 2025)

FIGURE 6. ISAAC SEIFA INDEX RATING

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2016 Census of Population and Housing, REMPLAN Community

http://www.remplan.com.au/products/remplan-community

Page 9 of 18

FIGURE 7. ISAAC VS QUEENSLAND POPULATION % BY AGE GROUP



Page 10 of 18

FIGURE 8. COMPARING ISAAC POPULATION BY AGE

(Source: 2016 ABS Isaac Time-series)

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4000

4500

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0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+

Isaac

2001 2006 2011 2016

2001 2006 2011 2016

0-9 3136 3518 4142 3960

10-19 2504 2670 2838 2358

20-29 2738 3958 3663 3128

30-39 3421 4607 4104 3955

40-49 3336 4266 3538 3066

50-59 2298 3257 2638 2544

60-69 887 1230 2028 1311

70+ 608 565 672 619

Page 11 of 18

FIGURE 9. NUMBER OF PERSONS IN FAMILY


FIGURE 10. FAMILIES – TOTAL CHILDREN IN FAMILY




Page 12 of 18

FIGURE 11. FAMILY COMPOSITION


FIGURE 12. LONE PARENTS




Page 13 of 18

FIGURE 13. ISAAC STATE SCHOOL ENROLMENT

0

100

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800

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Isaac Region School Enrolment

Clermont State School Dysart State School St Lawrence State School Nebo State School

Clarke Creek State School Middlemount Community School Glenden State School Mistake Creek State School

Kilcummin State School Clermont State High School Dysart State High School Moranbah State High School

Moranbah State School Moranbah East State School

Page 14 of 18

School 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Clermont State School 248 256 239 237 228

Dysart State School 355 356 361 349 335

St Lawrence State School 10 5 7 9 7

Nebo State School 29 73 73 67 60

Clarke Creek State School 13 10 11 16 14

Glenden State School 197 150.4 100 91 92

Kilcummin State School 31 32 33 35 34

Dysart State High School 151 167 177.8 174 159

Moranbah State School 548 563 559 574 634

Mistake Creek State School 12 17 15 17 13

Clermont State High School 191 195 197 175 177

Moranbah East State School 642 687 606 575 650

Middlemount Community School 391 363 308.2 245.6 257.4

Moranbah State High School 625 607 622 647 687

Source: Queensland Government, data.qld.gov.au

Page 15 of 18

EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR

Page 16 of 18

EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR

FIGURE 14. SMOOTHED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Unemployment rates are generally calculated by the number of unemployed people in a given area by its corresponding labour force.

(Source: Department of Job and Small Business Small Area Labour Market LGA and SA2 Data Tables Mar 2019)

FIGURE 15. SMOOTHED LABOUR FORCE

Smoothed labour force refers to the collective people who are able to work. The following graph depicts the total labour force of the Isaac LGA.

(Source: Department of Job and Small Business Small Area Labour Market LGA and SA2 Data Tables Mar 2019)

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Smoothed Unemployment Rate

Isaac Broadsound-Nebo

Clermont Moranbah

Australia Seasonally Adjusted Queensland Seasonally Adjusted

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9Smoothed Labour Force

Isaac Broadsound-Nebo Clermont Moranbah

Page 17 of 18

FIGURE 16. LABOUR FORCE STATUS

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2016 Census of Population and Housing, REMPLAN Economy.

FIGURE 17. EMPLOYMENT TYPE




Page 18 of 18

FIGURE 18. EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

All industry sectors in Isaac (R) ranked by Employment.

Isaac (R) (2019 Release 1)

Industry Sector Jobs %

Mining 13,080 60.9%

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 1,160 5.4%

Accommodation & Food Services 947 4.4%

Construction 848 4.0%

Education & Training 806 3.8%

Administrative & Support Services 777 3.6%

Transport, Postal & Warehousing 591 2.8%

Retail Trade 537 2.5%

Health Care & Social Assistance 492 2.3%

Public Administration & Safety 488 2.3%

Other Services 440 2.1%

Manufacturing 423 2.0%

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 237 1.1%

Wholesale Trade 197 0.9%

Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services 158 0.7%

Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services 146 0.7%

Arts & Recreation Services 62 0.3%

Financial & Insurance Services 39 0.2%

Information Media & Telecommunications 34 0.2%

Total 21,462



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ECONOMIC INDICATORS report: population & demographics