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Economic impacts of climatic variability andsubsidies on European agriculture and observedadaptation strategies

1. The Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) provides extensivedata on farm characteristics of farms throughout the EU15. Thesedata on inputs and outputs from 19902003 are coupled with climatedata.

2. As climate change is not the only change affecting Europeanagriculture, we also include effects of subsidies andother changes on inputs and outputs of farms throughout Europe.

3. We distinguish several regions and we use the translog distancefunction, to empirically assess empirically assess (1) climate impacts onfarm inputs and outputs in different regions and(2) Interactions between inputs and other factors that contribute to theadaptation to these impacts.

Methodology1. The translog distance function2. Data description and model specification 3. Analysing impacts and adaptation

Results1. Farm performance 2. Impacts and adaptation to changes in climate and subsidies 3. Impacts of climate, subsidies and inputs on output composition 4. Influence of inputs on production and adaptation strategies

5. Returns to scale

4. Changes in production can partly be related to climatic variability andchange, but also subsidies and other developments (e.g. technology,markets) are important. Results show that impacts differ per region, and

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Regional crop modeling in Europe - The impact of Climatic conditions and farm characteristics onmaize yields

1. In this Chapter we investigate the performance of the Crop GrowthMonitoring System (CGMS), based on the WOFOST model, to simulateactual regional maize yields for the 15 old member states of theEuropean Union (EU15).

2. The analysis of spatial yield variability shows that higher temperatures tend to increase actual yields, which is not evident fromsimulated potential yields. The temporal analysis of yieldvariability also indicates that in Mediterranean regions higher temperatures have a more positive impact on actual yields than on thesimulated potential yields.

3. The opposite is the case for temperate regions. This suggests thatfarmers in Mediterranean regions have adapted to higher temperatures, for example by growing more heat resistant cultivars, anadaptation strategy not considered in the crop model.

4. Improving estimations of temporal variability in actual maize yieldsrequires regional specific models that relate to the farm characteristicsimportant in the region.

5. In regions that are more regularly exposed to higher temperatures andlower precipitation the diversity among farm types in yields and yieldresponses are higher than in other regions, resulting in poor model

performance. Diversity can be considered as a regional adaptationmechanism to climate variability in Europe.

6. Farm characteristics provide some link to management and includingthem in a regional crop model can improve the simulation of climatevariability impacts and hence yield projections.

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9. Differences between simulated and actual maize yields are analyzedusing backward linear regression models in which climatic conditionsand farm characteristics are included. The analysis indicates (1) thevalidity of simulated climate impacts on regional maize yields inEurope, (2) factors that can improve regional crop modelingand (3) factors that influence adaptation.

Methodology1. Data description 2. Comparison of simulated and actual yields 3. Farm diversity and regional yields

Results

1. Spatial variability 2. Temporal variability 3. Temporal yield variability on different farm types

8. Regional crop model can improve the simulation of climate variabilityimpacts crop yields. Therefore, more effort should be made tounderstand the relationships between farm characteristics and cropmanagement activities and their impacts on yield.