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Economic Impact of Medical Education Expansion in Nevada &
Recommended Approach
2020
2025
2030
FUTURE
1
Over the past seven years, Tripp Umbach has been instrumental in 20 medical education expansion projects throughout the United States.
Since 1995 Tripp Umbach has measured the economic impact of every U.S. medical school and teaching hospital.
Since 1990, Tripp Umbach has consulted with 75 academic medical centers, more than 500 hospitals, and 150 universities in all 50 states.
Tripp Umbach Qualifications
2
Needs Assessment: Evaluate the market need of adding a new four-year medical school to the State of Nevada, specifically in Southern Nevada.
Program Assessment: Determine the size of a new four-year medical school to meet market demand and to expand the Nevada economy.
Facility Cost Assessment: Estimate the initial facility cost of a new four-year medical school and the return on investment (ROI) over time.
Economic Impact Assessment: Profile the multiple economic benefits associated with the operations of a new four-year medical school in Las Vegas and the State of Nevada.
Project Objectives
3
Tripp Umbach Recommendations -- The optimal model for developing a new a new four-year medical school in Las Vegas that maximizes the economic impact to the State of Nevada.
Measure the economic impact of statewide medical education expansion on the State of Nevada showing both the economic impact of the current medical school at The University of Nevada School of Medicine – University of Nevada Reno (UNSOM-UNR) and the proposed medical school at University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV).
Project Objectives
4
Tripp Umbach utilized the following data sources:
1) An existing study of the economic impact of UNSOM-UNR (2011);
2) A 2012 study completed by Tripp Umbach for the AAMC focusing on the economic impact of all 134 U.S. allopathic medical schools;
3) Economic impact models developed previously by Tripp Umbach for 20 new or expanded medical schools;
4) Qualitative assessment of Key Stakeholders (40 interviews representing 26 organizations) Nevada; and
5) Regional Asset Inventory.
Project Methodology
5
Initial Class of 60 Students in 2016-17 -- Tripp Umbach recommends that a new four-year medical school in Las Vegas begin in 2016 with an initial class of 60 medical students.
Growth to 120 Students per Class in 2030 -- To meet future market demand for physicians, by 2030, the new four-year medical school will educate 480 medical students.
240 New Residency Training Positions -- To ensure that the graduates from both the newly established medical school and the existing program at UNSOM-UNR remain in the state to practice medicine, a minimum of 240 new residency positions will also be required.
Determine Size of Medical School to Best Respond to Market Needs
6
Current Nevada Population: 2.75 million as of July 1, 2012 (U.S. Census Bureau)
Current Las Vegas Metro Population: 2.0 million (Population Division 2012)
Projected Nevada Population by 2030: 4.1 million (U.S. Census Bureau)
Projected Nevada Population by 2030: 3.7 million (Woods & Poole Economics)
Projected Nevada Population by 2030: 3.4 million (Nevada State Demographers Office)
Economic Impact Based on Population Projections
7
Key Economic Impact Findings Annual
Economic Impact
Expected Economic Impact of Medical Education in Nevada
based on Projected Population of 3.7 million in 2030$693 million
Expected Economic Impact of Medical Education in Nevada
based on Current Population $506 million
Tripp Umbach evaluated the economic impact of all allopathic U.S. medical schools to develop a baseline of the economic impact within three basic categories:
1) University-Affiliated Medical Schools – Public or Private standalone medical schools that are affiliated with an established university;
2) Independent Medical Schools – Independent medical schools that have no affiliation with an established university; and
3) Regional Campus of University-Affiliated Medical Schools – Four-year regional campuses of established university medical schools.
Evaluation
8
Economic Impact Evaluation of Medical School Models
University Affiliated Medical Schools
2020
20252030
9
Key Economic Impact Findings Annual
Economic Impact
Average Economic Impact of Established
University Affiliated U.S. Medical Schools
(2012)
$1.7 billion
Average Economic Impact of Public Medical
Schools in States with a Single Public
Medical School (UNSOM = $285 million)
$1.1 billion
Average Economic Impact of additional
Standalone Public University Affiliated
Medical Schools in States having more than
one Public Medical School
$882 million
Economic Impact Evaluation of Medical School Models
Key Economic Impact Findings Annual
Economic Impact
Average Economic Impact of Independent
(non-university allopathic ) Affiliated
Medical Schools$720 million
Independent Medical Schools
2020
20252030
10
Economic Impact Evaluation of Medical School Models
Regional Campus of Establish Schools
2020
20252030
11
Key Economic Impact Findings Annual
Economic Impact
Average Economic Impact of Regional Four-
Year Campuses of Established Allopathic
Medical Schools in the U.S. (i.e., regional
medical school campus of UNSOM-UNR in
Las Vegas).
$245 million
A full-scale four-year independent medical school in Las Vegas will have a substantially higher economic impact than a regional campus of UNSOM-UNR.
Tripp Umbach estimates that a new four-year medical school developed in Las Vegas as a result of a joint venture between UNSOM-UNR and UNLV will have a total annual economic impact of $1.2 billion at maturity (2030).
With the growth of UNSOM– the total economic impact of both schools will be $1.9 billion.
Key Finding
12
Tripp Umbach reviewed new allopathic medical school facilities constructed over the past five years to determine the ROI of each for each of the below medical school models:
1) University Affiliated Medical Schools
2) Independent Medical Schools
3) Regional Campus of University-Affiliated Medical Schools
Return on Investment (ROI)
13
Facility ConsiderationsModel Independent University
Affiliated
University Regional
CampusInitial Facility Cost $83million $68 million $28 million
Examples
The
Commonwealth
Medical College
University of
Central Florida
College of Medicine
University of South Carolina
Upstate School of Medicine
State Contribution at 50% of
Facility Costs$41 million $34 million $14 million
Economic Impact at
maturity in 2030$720 million $882 million $245 million
Tax Revenue in 2030
(Annually)$36 million $44 million $12 million
Average Tax Revenue
Generated per year over the
15-year period
$24 million $28 million $8 million
Total Government Revenue
Generated over the 15-year
period
$356 million $425 million$115 million
Return on Investment
(ROI)
$8.58 for every
$1 invested
$12.48 for every
$1 invested
$8.21 for every
$1 invested14
Tripp Umbach based this recommendation on the following:
1) UNR’s established track record as a fully accredited statewide medical education program.
2) UNLV’s strength in other health science programs, including a successful dental school.
3) UNLV’s current and future research growth potential as a comprehensive doctoral degree granting university far surpasses any other educational institution in southern Nevada.
4) The current southern Nevada regional assets including clinical infrastructure, state of the art simulation laboratory, and only pharmacy school in the state.
5) The opportunity for both public and private financial support of UNLV’s efforts to develop a new allopathic medical school far exceeds any other educational institution in southern Nevada.
Recommended Approach – Collaboration between UNR and UNLV to Develop a Full-Scale Medical School in Las Vegas
15
The Economic Impact of Recommended Approach
Total Economic Impact
TotalEconomicImpact(inMillions)totheStateofNevada
2010
2020
2025
2030
ProposedUNLVSchoolofMedicine
N/A $301million $803million$1,200million
UNSOM-UNR $285million $375million $510million $684million
TotalStatewideEconomicImpact
$285million $676million $1,313million$1,884million
2020
20252030
16
The Economic Impact of Recommended Approach
Total Employment Impact
TotalEmploymentImpacttotheStateofNevada(injobs)
2010
2020
2025
2030
ProposedUNLVSchoolofMedicine
N/Ajobs 2,006jobs 5,353jobs 8,000jobs
UNSOM-UNR 2,396jobs 2,800jobs 3,400jobs 4,560jobs
TotalEmploymentImpact
2,396jobs 4,806jobs 8,753jobs 12,560jobs
2020
20252030
17
The Economic Impact of Recommended Approach
Total Government Revenue Impact
TotalGovernmentRevenueImpact(inMillions)totheStateofNevada
2010
2020
2025
2030
ProposedUNLVSchoolofMedicine
N/A $15million $40million $60million
UNSOM-UNR $14million $19million $26million $34million
TotalGovernmentRevenueImpact
$14million $34million $66million $94million
2020
20252030
18
Speed and Efficiency: The speed at which a new medical school can be developed to meet market needs and drive economic development is greatly enhanced by a collaborative relationship between an established medical school and newly developed program.
Fresh Dollars attracted to Nevada: Coordinated academic medicine education and research programs in both Reno and Las Vegas will add significantly more and new streams of funding to the state.
Benefits of the UNSOM-UNR and UNLV Partnership Model Include:
19
Maximum Growth Potential: The growth of clinical services supported by two medical schools in the state’s largest markets will increase the number of patients that remain in Nevada for care and may eventually attract patients from outside of the state, thereby increasing the economic impact to the healthcare sector.
Maximum Financial Support: A joint effort by UNSOM-UNR and the proposed UNLV School of Medicine has the potential to better engage the foundation and philanthropic community, leading to greater financial support for both institutions.
Benefits of the UNSOM-UNR and UNLV Partnership Model Include:
20
Signed Letter of Intent (November 2013)
Complete Business Plan and Implementation Strategy for Medical School and Graduate Medical Education (January – June 2014)
Begin Accreditation Process (July 2014)
Secure Leadership (July 2014)
Expand Clinical Placements (2015)
Ongoing Bioscience Economic Development Marketing (2016 +)
Tripp Umbach Recommendations for Next Steps:
21