Economic impact of EVs in the Brazilian electrical

distribution networks

Code: 12.040

Flávio T. Mariotto, Luiz C. P. Silva, Yuri G. Pinto,

Fernanda C. L. Trindade

11/11/2017 1

Evaluation of the economic impacts of the

massive use of electric vehicles resulting

from the mitigation of technical impacts in

the Brazilian networks distributors

Objectives

11/11/2017 2

• New demand for electric energy to the Electric Vehicles (VEs)

(i) Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)

(ii) Plugins Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

• Predominance of charge in home or work environment

• Long charging time will affect the load curve.

• Change the operating conditions of the distribution network

(i) decrease in voltage magnitude

(ii) increased voltage unbalance

(iii) overload of conductors and transformers

• Investments to reinforcing infrastructure to mitigate technical impacts

Introduction

11/11/2017 3

Methodology

11/11/2017 4

Apparent penetration of

VEs

Adhesion of VEs

EE daily demand

Grouping by distributor

Violations simulation in the distribution

network

Investment projection and

financial evaluation

BEV and PHEV

Adhesion of VEs

11/11/2017

5

ICE Fleet

BEV Fleet

BEV Sales

m

p q

m

p q

TCO

ICE

VHEP

BEV

Financial Factors • Tax Benefits • Cost of use

Potential Market

Segmentation

Non-Financial Benefits

Mercado Total de Veículos

Total vehicles

sales

Tendencies

Bass - BEV

Scrapping

Demand growth

Affected market

percentages

PHEV Sales

m

p q

GDP

Market offer

Attenuators • Autonomy • Absence of

public chargers

-

VHE

...

Bass - PHEV

PHEV Fleet

System Dynamics

Prices

HEV Sales

ICE Sales

Scrapping

Scrapping

Projection of fleet of plugins VEs

• In 2030: 7,7 millions (14% of light vehicles fleet of)

Adhesion of VEs

11/11/2017 6

4,5 millions

1,2 millions

Relevant Cities

Criteria grouping based on GDP, GDP per capita, HDI and population.

• 10% of Brazilian cities (556 cities)

• 77% of the light vehicles fleet

• 87% of the electricity distributors

Distribution of VEs in the Relevant Cities

• Actually – Adhesion proportionally

to actual VEs fleet

• After 2024 – Adhesion proportionally

to actual light fleet

Grouping by distributor

11/11/2017 7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

VEB VHEP VHE

324 75

2091

3

1

281

Veículos em outros municípios

Veículos nos MunicípiosRelevantes

BEV PHVE HVE

VEs fleet in 2016

Denatran (Adapted)

Electric energy daily demand

11/11/2017 8

Cetesb 2015 (Adapted)

Tendency of daily km in the Relevant Cities

Fuel consumption by city (Gas and ethanol)

ANP (Ref 2014)

Fleet by city, vehicle type and fuel

• Sindipeças - (Frota circ. 2015) • Denatran - frota-2014

Km by vehicle age (City SP)

Daily Km in 2016: 39,6 km Grow tx: 0,4 km/year

Vehicle efficiency (km/kWh or km/l)

VEs fleet

Cetesb 2015 São Paulo State

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

VEB

VHEP

Co

nsu

mo

diá

rio

de

EE (

kWh

)

Projection of daily energy demanded by VEs in kwh in the Relevant Cities

BEV PHVE

Daily average in 2030 to BEVs:

56 km

Apparent penetration of VEs

11/11/2017 9

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Penatração VHEP

Penetração VEB

Penetração

aparente VEs

refD

VHEPmtD

VHEPD

refD

VEBmtD

VEBD

VEBVHEPAp PPP

Dref = Daily reference charge =10,7 kWh

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

VEB

VHEP

Co

nsu

mo

diá

rio

de

EE

(k

Wh

)

Daily energy demanded

PHVE Penetration

BEV Penetration

Apparent Penetration

VEs fleet

Absolute Penetration (Fleet VE/Consumer)

Balances differences in energy

demand of plugins vehicles

• Monte Carlo simulation of 25,000 secondary networks • BEVs penetration of 10%, 20% and 30%

• 200 random scenarios per network (i) Position of the charging stations (ii) Initial time of each recharge from

6:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. (iii) Variable charging duration based on:

• biphasic chargers with power of 3.3 Kw

• daily reference charge of 10.7 kWh (daily average of 50 km)

• probability density with log-normal curve

(iv) Load flow calculation for 24 hours

Distribution Network Violations

11/11/2017 10

Distribution Network Violations

11/11/2017 11

Mitigated Network Percentages Main violations types

78,8%

9,5%11,1%

0,6%

Magnitude de tensão Desequilíbrio de tensão

Sobrecarga condutores Sobrecarga transformador

Magnitude of tension

Conductor overload

Voltage imbalance

Transformer overload

Conductors

Transformers

BEVs Penetrations

Mitig

ate

d N

etw

ork

Perc

enta

ges

Voltage magnitude violation occurs in almost 80% of the affected networks

Frequency of investments to enhance conductors

Distribution Network Violations

11/11/2017 12

Investment per network with violation (R$)

10% penetration of BEVs Network with violation: 12718

Perc

entile

(cum

ula

tive p

robabili

ty)

Pro

babili

ty b

y investm

ent

range

Percentile Inv range

Investment projection and financial evaluation

11/11/2017 13

Results

11/11/2017 14

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

Inve

stim

ento

s de

ade

quaç

ão d

e re

de

(Milh

ares

R$)

Investimento mínimo Variação investimento

Revisão tarifária Revisão tarifária Revisão tarifária

Ciclo 1 Ciclo 2 Ciclo 3

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

Inve

stim

en

tos

de

ad

eq

ua

ção

de

re

de

(Milh

are

s R

$)

Investimento mínimo Variação investimento

Ciclo 1

Ciclo 2Ciclo 3

G1 G2 G3 G4 G5G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5

Reference distributor All distributor in Relevant Cities

Marginal investments (to those normally made by distributors)

Projection of investments in planing cycles

Minimum Variation Minimum Variation

Rate revision Rate revision Rate revision

Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3

Cycle 1

Cycle 2 Cycle 3

Results

11/11/2017 15

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Pro

ba

bil

ida

de

Valor investimento (Milhões R$)

Investimentos BrasilMédia de R$ 55,15 MilhõesDe R$ 30,6 a R$ 76,9 Milhões70% probabilidadeDesvio padrão/Média: 46%

Média por consumidor de R$ 1,71 De R$ 0,95 a R$ 2,38 70% probabilidade

Investments frequency

Amount of investments until 2030 to all Relevant Cities

Average R$ 55.1 millions From R$ 31 to 77 millions

70% probability Standard deviation / mean: 46%

Average per consumer of R$ 1.71 From R$ 0.95 to R$ 2.38

70% probability

Investment range (Millions R$)

Results

11/11/2017 16

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

Re

mu

ne

raçã

o r

eg

ula

tóri

a (

mil

ha

res

R$

)

Remun. regulatória investimentos Variação Remun. Regulatória

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

Valo

r Pr

esen

te L

íqui

do (

Mil

hare

s R

$)

Economic assumptions Amount of regulatory revenues up to 2030 From R$ 30 million to 60 million

Net Present Value (NPV) in 2030 From $ 2 million to 6 million

ROI = 12% Financing approach

Minimum Variation

Discussions

11/11/2017 17

Investment by consumer

Wide dispersion of investments (28 times) (VEs penetration and networks characteristics)

Abordagem de financiamento

0 5 10 15 20

RGE

AMPLA

ELEKTRO

BANDEIRANTE

CELG-D

CELESC-DIS

LIGHT

CEB-DIS

COPEL-DIS

CPFL Paulista

CEMIG-D

ELETROPAULO

Inv Inferior

Var inv.

Total de investimentos (Milhõies de R$)

0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00

ELETROBRÁS RONDÔNIA

BANDEIRANTE

AES SUL

EDEVP

Energisa (CEMAT)

CPFL Sul Paulista

Municípios Relevantes

Energisa (ENERSUL)

CPFL Mococa

CPFL Santa Cruz

CELG-D

ELETROCAR

CPFL Jaguari

ELEKTRO

COOPERALIANÇA

CEMIG-D

EEB

CPFL Paulista

COPEL-DIS

Energisa (CNEE)

RGE

CELESC-DIS

ELETROPAULO

COCEL

CPFL Leste Paulista

CAIUÁ-D

IENERGIA

CEB-DIS

Inv min. por consum

Var inv. por consum

Valor médioentre as distribuidoras

Investimento por consumidor (R$)

Total investment by distributor

Highest distributors Average value

Amount of Investment (R$)

Minimum

Variation

Variation

Minimum

Response to the displacement time of the VE charge • Encouraged for consumers to charge VEs

out of peak hours

• Survey of consumers with EVs in California* • 62% use a special PEV rate

• (when available from the distributor)

Reduction of investment from

60% to 70%

Discussions

11/11/2017 18

* EV Consumer Survey Dashboard

Conclusions

11/11/2017 19

• By 2030 the estimated investment amount is from R$ 0.95 to R$ 2.38 per consumer

• Strong investment reduction triggered by off-peak VEs charge

Low impact in the short term

• New energy demand

• Methods of prediction and mitigation of impacts in the distribution network

• Availability of capital for investments

Planning

• Review of prudence criteria for investments defined by the regulator

• Incentives to charge out-of-peak hours (Smart Charge)

Regulation

Acknowledgments

11/11/2017 20

• Aneel Research project

PD-0063-0060/2013

Technical and Commercial Insertion of Electric Vehicles in Business

Fleets of the Metropolitan Region of Campinas

CPFL Paulista

CPqD

UNICAMP (University of Campinas)